Tories predicted to be biggest party at next general election

[big fat yorkshire pudding]

I think it will be billy very close.

I think on the UK polls it will narrow but perhaps not enough. Labour lead is clearly consistent but I wouldn't say it's particularly the strongest. I could see ed getting a trouncing in debates v Cameron too. He's a real weak link as is ed balls.  It'll be interesting particularly if we're surprised and Scotland votes yes. Disaster for labour that would be.

[BillyStubbsTears]

BFYP

See, that's the commonly held belief - that a a Miliband will get hammered in a debate with Cameron. And yet, on a regular basis, Miliband gives Cameron a hard time at Prime Minister's Questions. He has a way of riling Cameron and piercing the urbane cool facade to let the Bullingdon Bully come out. Watch PMQ and you see it on a regular basis.

That is why the press have been so scathing about Miliband's response to the Budget, because that was way below his usual performance.

Yes Miliband is not photogenic and has a nasal voice. But when it comes to debating issues, he is more than a match for Cameron. That's why Miliband has been saying for months that he's happy to hold a debate, and why (as far as I'm aware) Cameron has not yet responded.

[The Red Baron]

Don't be too surprised if the TV debates don't happen this time. Cameron will be wary after the last ones didn't work out for him. The bigger factor though is UKIP. If they have a good result in the Euro-elections an continue to lead the Lib Dems in the opinion polls, Farage will use that to try and muscle in on any Leaders' Debate. And he'll threaten to go to court if the TV companies refuse to invite him on.

As none of the main parties will want to give a platform to UKIP, they'll probably decide that the debates are more trouble than they're worth.

[IC1967]

UKIP will do well in the European elections. They will do very badly in the general election. This is because of the different voting systems. Your vote actually means something in the European elections. In the general election it only counts in marginal seats.

When it comes down to it, a Tory voter in a marginal seat who wants to vote UKIP will come down on the side of voting Tory because he won't want to let Labour in through the back door.

I'll be voting for UKIP in Doncaster because there is no chance of a Tory victory. By doing this at least the national figures for UKIP will be higher than they would have been. If I was a stalwart UKIP supporter I would vote for the Tories in Doncaster if I thought they had any chance.

So in conclusion, I think the UKIP threat to the Tories at a general election is grossly exaggerated.

[The Red Baron]

I agree that UKIP will do a lot better in the Euro-elections than they will at the GE. However, I don't necessarily agree with your view that UKIP voters will vote tactically. I live in a constituency where the Lib-Dems and Tories were virtually neck and neck in 2010. As it was the Lib-Dems squeaked home, but if UKIP voters HAD voted tactically then the Tories would have won.

A significant number of UKIP voters will not vote for any of the three main parties, because they believe all three have "sold out" to a greater or lesser degree over Europe and Immigration.

[IC1967]

I think more will vote tactically this time because the Tories have promised a referendum on the EU. Labour have really shot themselves in the foot by not offering one.

[BillyStubbsTears]

TRB

Agreed.

There's a precedent. A very large number of centre-left supporters (it's been placed at somewhere between 2-3 million) left Labour for the Lib Dems between the Iraq War and 2010. The LAST thing they wanted was a right wing Government. But that didn't make them vote for Labour in 2010. Those votes cost Labour tens of seats in 2010, in constituencies where the LDs could not possibly have won, but where votes shifting from Lab to LD let in the Tories. Those voters were so disaffected by Labour that they were voted against them, even when doing so led to Tory MPs.

It is possible that some of the Tory--> UKIP movers will go back to the Tories in 2015. But it is equally possibly that hundreds of thousands of them are now so to the right of the Tory party on social and EU issues, that they would prefer for the Tories to lose and lurch rightwards after the Election.

[The Red Baron]

I think more will vote tactically this time because the Tories have promised a referendum on the EU. Labour have really shot themselves in the foot by not offering one.

It might swing a few, but not a lot. After all, many will remember Cameron's "Cast Iron" promise of a referendum on the Lisbon Treaty.