Looking grim for Labour

[IC1967]

Yeah....& us 'Righties' ought to see about banning all showing's of Jesse Owens medal winning events once we grasp power. I'm so with you ICI.

I'm genuinely interested in why you think I'm a rascist. Is it because I'm a Ukipper?

[bpoolrover]

Think ed milliband has made a mess of this zero hour contract stuff

[BillyStubbsTears]

BPool

Why?

[bpoolrover]

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-3022239/Miliband-vows-abolish-zero-hours-forgets-Labour-use-them.html

[bpoolrover]

Was in chippy I didn't buy the paper lol

[BillyStubbsTears]

Bpool

1) This hasn't "emerged" as the Mail say. It's old news. At least 9 months old.

2) if Labour councils are using exploitative zero hours contracts, they should be held to account. If they are using them (as the article suggests) for relief workers, that is entirely different (see 4 below).

3) Ed Balls dealt with this last June. He was advised by the Independent Parliamentary Standards Authority to use these contracts as the easiest way of paying the living wage to short-term internees without falling foul of Parliamentary rules.

4) the issue is all about workers being exploited. Not about the principle of zero hours contracts when they are in the worker's best interests. That is why Labour are saying they will give someone the RIGHT TO ASK FOR a regular contract after 13 weeks. Not that they will outlaw zero hours contracts.

5) The cheek of Grant Shapps accusing ANYONE of hypocrisy is breathtaking. This is the man who, against Parliamentary rules, continued to run a business under a false name after he became an MP. This was pointed out by a member of the public on Facebook. Shapps publicly denied this and took legal action for defamation against this person. Then a couple if weeks ago, Shapps admitted that he had been "overly firm with his denial" over his false name. Which means in layman's terms "I lied through my f**king teeth and tried to bully an honest member of the public into backing down to save my face, by threatening to hammer him financially in the courts." Shapps calling someone a hypocrite is like Marcello Trotta calling someone a bottler from the penalty spot when under pressure. 


As for business telling us it will be a catastrophe for jobs, well they WOULD say that. They said the same thing about the Minimum Wage. They say the same thing about ANYTHING that gives workers more protection.

Finally, don't forget that that revolting rag of a newspaper has it in for Miliband since he took them on a couple of years ago when they ran that disgusting story about how Miliband's father was an enemy of Britain. That's a man who served in the Navy against Hitler. Being accused by a paper that supported Hitler in the 1930s.

[Filo]

You're a rare breed amongst employers BST, someone who cares about workers rights

[BillyStubbsTears]

I try to Filo.

My company's going through a tough cash flow time at the moment. I've foregone my salary for the last two months which has allowed us to not have to lay anyone off. I'm owed £6k in expenses from various travels over the past year and I've written that off. I utterly f**king despise those bosses who see workers as units to be hired and fired at will. They are people. With families.

[hoolahoop]

Think ed milliband has made a mess of this zero hour contract stuff

Yep pushing it far too much and now looks like a 'one trip' pony. If he is to win, he must widen his attack to appeal to a far wider audience I.e. those that don't already sit in either camp or in fact never vote. He has to think of changing quickly with a view to revisiting this later in the campaign.
BTW I utterly despise these sort of contracts and they have no place in this country. They should be abolished immediately.

[IC1967]

Yougov now got the Tories on 37% and Labour on 35%.

The Tories are now moving comfortably to outright majority territory as I predicted.

https://yougov.co.uk/news/2015/04/03/cons-lead-2/

Get in.

[GazLaz]

Can you honestly see them pushing up towards 50%? It's still very unlikely.

[IC1967]

Can you honestly see them pushing up towards 50%? It's still very unlikely.

They don't need 50%. They need about an 8% difference with Labour. I reckon the Tories will be on 40% come election day. That's only 3% more than now. Labour are going to be wiped out in Scotland, they are losing votes to the Greens, UKIP and Plaid Cymru. UKIP voters will support the Tory candidate where it keeps Labour out. Whichever way you look at it Labour are getting squeezed on all sides and this will continue. After the next leader's debate I expect Labour to lose more votes to the smaller parties as Ed is going to get another bashing. Cameron won't because he won't be there.

Get in.

[wilts rover]

If you UKIPPers are suddenly going to vote tactically to keep Labour out - why do you believe that Greens & Lib Dems wont vote tactically in the same seats to keep Cameron out?

Some of the most interesting contests are going to be the Lib Dem v Tory ones, places round me like Chippenham, Bath, Wells etc, will the Lib Dem voters put aside their dislike of Clegg to keep Cameron out? Will UKIP hurt the Tories?

[The Red Baron]

Same for me, Wilts. I live in one of the most marginal Lib Dem v Tory marginals. I fully expected it to go blue in 2010, but it didn't. I suspect the Lib Dems have squeezed the ex-Labour vote as far as they can, so they might struggle to hang on this time.

One interesting local factor is that the LDs have been losing council votes and seats hand over fist to the Greens. Will those voters stay Green or vote tactically to keep the Tories out?

[BillyStubbsTears]

The (limited) evidence from 2010-14 by-elections was that where the LDs were challenging Labour, their vote collapsed, but where they were fighting the Tories, their vote held up.

[IC1967]

If you UKIPPers are suddenly going to vote tactically to keep Labour out - why do you believe that Greens & Lib Dems wont vote tactically in the same seats to keep Cameron out?

Some of the most interesting contests are going to be the Lib Dem v Tory ones, places round me like Chippenham, Bath, Wells etc, will the Lib Dem voters put aside their dislike of Clegg to keep Cameron out? Will UKIP hurt the Tories?

Because UKIP want a referendum on Europe we will only vote UKIP if we think we've got a good chance of winning the seat.  We won't vote UKIP if we think it's going to let Labour in. We want anyone else other than Labour to win, ideally the Tories if it can't be us. The last thing we want is Labour in power and no referendum. We are more sophisticated than other voters who will vote with their hearts instead of tactically with their heads.

[hoolahoop]

If you UKIPPers are suddenly going to vote tactically to keep Labour out - why do you believe that Greens & Lib Dems wont vote tactically in the same seats to keep Cameron out?

Some of the most interesting contests are going to be the Lib Dem v Tory ones, places round me like Chippenham, Bath, Wells etc, will the Lib Dem voters put aside their dislike of Clegg to keep Cameron out? Will UKIP hurt the Tories?

Because UKIP want a referendum on Europe we will only vote UKIP if we think we've got a good chance of winning the seat.  We won't vote UKIP if we think it's going to let Labour in. We want anyone else other than Labour to win, ideally the Tories if it can't be us. The last thing we want is Labour in power and no referendum. We are more sophisticated than other voters who will vote with their hearts instead of tactically with their heads.

'More sophisticated' are you having a laugh fella  ?
How the hell do yo know this, what is the evidence you have that draws you to such a conclusion ? None I doubt as UKIP And their voters have little or no pàst tactical voting history. You make it all up as you go along !

[IC1967]

If you UKIPPers are suddenly going to vote tactically to keep Labour out - why do you believe that Greens & Lib Dems wont vote tactically in the same seats to keep Cameron out?

Some of the most interesting contests are going to be the Lib Dem v Tory ones, places round me like Chippenham, Bath, Wells etc, will the Lib Dem voters put aside their dislike of Clegg to keep Cameron out? Will UKIP hurt the Tories?

Because UKIP want a referendum on Europe we will only vote UKIP if we think we've got a good chance of winning the seat.  We won't vote UKIP if we think it's going to let Labour in. We want anyone else other than Labour to win, ideally the Tories if it can't be us. The last thing we want is Labour in power and no referendum. We are more sophisticated than other voters who will vote with their hearts instead of tactically with their heads.

'More sophisticated' are you having a laugh fella  ?
How the hell do yo know this, what is the evidence you have that draws you to such a conclusion ? None I doubt as UKIP And their voters have little or no pàst tactical voting history. You make it all up as you go along !

Look. It's very simple. The Tory vote is going up and UKIP's is going down. Ukippers are going back to the Tories in their droves. They are intelligent and know that voting UKIP to let Labour in is crazy. The last thing us Ukippers want is Labour in power and no EU referendum. However UKIP will still hold on to a decent amount of voters. These will be predominantly ex Labour voters who will stay with them come what may. This will damage Labour badly.

Sorted.

[hoolahoop]

If you UKIPPers are suddenly going to vote tactically to keep Labour out - why do you believe that Greens & Lib Dems wont vote tactically in the same seats to keep Cameron out?

Some of the most interesting contests are going to be the Lib Dem v Tory ones, places round me like Chippenham, Bath, Wells etc, will the Lib Dem voters put aside their dislike of Clegg to keep Cameron out? Will UKIP hurt the Tories?

Because UKIP want a referendum on Europe we will only vote UKIP if we think we've got a good chance of winning the seat.  We won't vote UKIP if we think it's going to let Labour in. We want anyone else other than Labour to win, ideally the Tories if it can't be us. The last thing we want is Labour in power and no referendum. We are more sophisticated than other voters who will vote with their hearts instead of tactically with their heads.

'More sophisticated' are you having a laugh fella  ?
How the hell do yo know this, what is the evidence you have that draws you to such a conclusion ? None I doubt as UKIP And their voters have little or no pàst tactical voting history. You make it all up as you go along !

Look. It's very simple. The Tory vote is going up and UKIP's is going down. Ukippers are going back to the Tories in their droves. They are intelligent and know that voting UKIP to let Labour in is crazy. The last thing us Ukippers want is Labour in power and no EU referendum. However UKIP will still hold on to a decent amount of voters. These will be predominantly ex Labour voters who will stay with them come what may. This will damage Labour badly.

Sorted.

If only politics and the electorate were that simple, what on earth has drawn you to that conclusion ?
You have no evidence whatsoever to lead you to write such dribble with any seriousness ? 
This is what you would like to happen isn't it  Mick ?

[IC1967]

You asked for evidence. Here it is. Tories now on 39% and UKIP down to 7%. Labour on a pathetic 33%. This being a poll by ICM for the leftie rag the Guardian. Conclusive proof us Ukippers are moving back to the Tories (for now).

http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2015/apr/13/conservatives-six-point-lead-guardian-icm-poll-labour

Get in.

[BillyStubbsTears]

I'll guess, without bothering to check that our resident expert is getting all excited about the ICM poll?

Is that right?

This is what Anthony Wells of YouGov had to say about it

http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/blog/archives/9347

"The worst thing you can do in analysing polls of voting intention is to get excited at polls that show something exciting and different and ignore those that show the same old pattern. Occassionally the unusual poll will herald a genuine movement in public opinion – after all, whenever there is a change, one poll has to pick it up first. More often than not, the unusual poll will turn out to be a freak result, the product of unusual sampling or methods. If there is genuinely a change in public opinion, other polls will pick it up sooner or later, so it’s always wise to withhold your judgement.
Today we have one of those unusual polls, and we have the overexcitement you’d expect. ICM’s monthly poll in the Guardian has topline figures of CON 39%(+3), LAB 33%(-2), LDEM 8%(nc), UKIP 7%(-2), GRN 7%(+3) (tabs). This is pretty odd all round – a storming six point lead for the Tories, up on thirty-nine percent; the Greens and UKIP equal on seven percent.
In the Guardian’s write up they are rightly dubious, and include a welcome caveat from ICM’s Martin Boon about the inevitability of random variation and the sample perhaps being a touch too Tory. I’ll just leave it with the usual caveats – it’s one poll, and an odd looking one at that. Sure, it could be the start of some Tory surge, but if it is we will see it echoed in other polls today…and luckily enough we have at least three of them."

Ho hum. I'll wait for Mick's new mates to start trolling Wells and complaining that he's being unfair to their man.

[IC1967]

Oh dear. More bad news for Labour. The SNP have almost doubled their lead over Labour giving the party a 28 point lead.

http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2015/apr/13/snp-has-almost-doubled-lead-over-labour-in-scotland-poll-shows

Get in.

[big fat yorkshire pudding]

Oh dear. More bad news for Labour. The SNP have almost doubled their lead over Labour giving the party a 28 point lead.

http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2015/apr/13/snp-has-almost-doubled-lead-over-labour-in-scotland-poll-shows

Get in.

Get in?  I'm clearly much more favourale towards the Tories and this does have some Tory benefit potentially.  But that is largely irrelevant as the damage the SNP could do exceeds the damage Labour could commit!

[IC1967]

Oh dear. More bad news for Labour. The SNP have almost doubled their lead over Labour giving the party a 28 point lead.

http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2015/apr/13/snp-has-almost-doubled-lead-over-labour-in-scotland-poll-shows

Get in.

Get in?  I'm clearly much more favourale towards the Tories and this does have some Tory benefit potentially.  But that is largely irrelevant as the damage the SNP could do exceeds the damage Labour could commit!

I'm a big picture sort of person. I'm very relaxed about the outcome of the election. I think the Tories will win with an overall majority. If I'm wrong the next likely outcome is a Tory LibDem coalition. Worst case scenario is a minority Labour government supported by the SNP.

Even that scenario is OK by me. It wouldn't take long before the wheels would come off any kind of Labour government. Within 2 years they'd be out of office for a generation. The Tories would form the next government with a landslide. UKIP would become the second largest force in British politics. The country would lurch violently to the right and we'd be out of Europe.

Get in.

[Glyn_Wigley]

[The Red Baron]

The movements in that ICM / Guardian poll are too dramatic to suggest anything other than an outlier. It isn't backed up by any of the other polls, including the daily YouGov one.

With regard to Scotland I have have a hunch that most of the polls are over-estimating the strength of the SNP vote. They are certainly going to do well, but I don't think as well as some of the polls suggest.

I wonder if Scotland now has it's own "Shy Labour" equivalent of the famous  "Shy Tory?"

[big fat yorkshire pudding]

It is clearly all still neck and neck I think the polls make that clear.

[BillyStubbsTears]

TRB

There was a fair bit of evidence of Shy Noes in the Indy Ref polls. And a fair few claims of intimidation by Yes supporters which is a worry.

There was a poll a few days ago that asked the question "Do you consider the criticism of the party you support to be a personal criticism?" For most parties, there were around 10-20% who answered "yes" which is worrying enough. But for SNP supporters, the figure was over 50%.

That is truly scary. It suggests that rational debate is going out of the window in Scotland. Which might explain why, the more the SNP's economic plans are criticised as somewhere between fantasy and extremely dangerous, the more popular they become.

[IC1967]

Today's launch of their manifesto is a game changer. I fully expect the Tories to pull away in the opinion polls now.

[BillyStubbsTears]

Mick

I preferred the old days when you used to make loads of spelling mistakes.