Vlad Putin

[BobG]

Kruschev backed down over the Cuban missiles Filo because JFK had a very senior level spy inside the Kremlin who fed back every single thing the Russkies were thinking and doing. So each time Kruschev tried something, the Yanks had already planned their mitigation and their next move too. Kruschev couldn't win. It cost him his career in the end. Maybe we have a spy there again. Not sure I'd care to rely on that though - especially given the Yanks ridiculous fascination this last 30 years with elint rather than the human variety.

As for the gas, well, that's fine then Sproty. I'll remind you when it comes to deciding who stays warm and who doesn't. And your figures are wrong incidentally.  Finland, Sweden, all the Baltic states, Czech Republic and Bulgaria get 100% of their gas from Russia. Austria, Slovakia, Poland get 75%. Germany, Hungary, Croatia, Belgium get upto 50%. France, Rumania, Italy, Netherlands get upto 25%. Us, Ireland, Portugal and Spain are the lucky ones. But don't imagine, for even one second, that we would come away unscathed. We wouldn't. Not by a long chalk.

And moving on a bit, have you noticed just how little the press and the television are discussing the future of Ukraine and our relatinship with Russia? And how little the government is commenting on their discussions about the future of Ukraine and their  plans for the next 5 years for Russia?

I wonder why that might be?!

I wouldn't mind a small bet the Govt are busy focussing disproportionate effort on how to control us lot if and when the crap really does start rather than focussing on the cause of the problem in the first place. And the press, as ever, won't want to rock the boat as soon as the magic words 'national security' are whispered.

BobG

[The Red Baron]

If Putin stops selling gas to the west then doesn't that hurt the Russian economy as much as it does those in the west?

I don't disagree with the basic premise that Putin is a threat to global security, but I think his foreign policy actions are all about countering his weakening domestic position.

[Sprotyrover]

Filo yes they are,not having read the Times article I can only assume that the title is correct,Russia to cut off Gas to Ukraine,well the first time they did that it caused chaos in Europe,they then tried only sending enough gas for the other customers, the Ukraine just siphoned off what they needed, so additional pipelines have been built in Belarus and under the Baltic,hence 85% of Europes gas goes via other routes that skirt the Ukraine.I would be surprised if the Times hasn't reported that in its article.

[BillyStubbsTears]

Bob

That wasn't my understanding of what defused the Cuban Missile Crisis. There was a backdoor diplomacy channel between a senior member of staff at the Soviet Embassy in Washington and White House staff. The Soviet guy wasn't a spy. He was acting with the full knowledge of his managers. What this link did was to allow Bobby Kennedy and the Soviet Ambassador (I think - might be wrong about the Soviet politician) to kick around solutions off the radar and away from the hawks on both sides (like Curtis Le May who is one of the scariest men of the 20th century) who were angling for a showdown.

The backdoor diplomacy came up with the compromise solution. Khrushchev removed the Cuban missiles and Kennedy removed Jupiter missiles from Turkey that were equally dangerous to the USSR.

It was spun as a masterpiece of brinkmanship by Kennedy, but nothing could be further from the truth. Neither Kennedy not Khrushchev wanted a showdown. Both needed to save face. They found a compromise where both could do that.

Khrushchev was removed a couple of years later not because he had LOST the Cuban crisis, but because he had been mad to START it. People like Brezhnev and Gromyko were genuinely frightened by what he'd done and they decided to get rid of him. 

[Dutch Uncle]

Khrushchev was removed a couple of years later not because he had LOST the Cuban crisis, but because he had been mad to START it. People like Brezhnev and Gromyko were genuinely frightened by what he'd done and they decided to get rid of him. 

Is that very clever pun intended BST? (STrategic Arms Reduction Talks)

[BillyStubbsTears]

DU. You give me far too much credit pal. I'm just too lazy to do italics

[BobG]

I'm aware of the Turkey based missiles Billy. I have not heard of the back door diplomacy. And I'm struggling to remember the name of the spy. One of the famous ones. So famous I can't remember!

Sproty: don't matter two hoots who owns a pipeline. if there's no gas, there's no gas. Of course it's unlikely to happen. But this is realpolitik. The threat is what counts: how people percieve its credibility. and how much of a chance politicians are willing to take both domestically and internationally.

Of course Russia will lose a lot of money if they cut off the gas. But if they really did take over a few places along the way, the assets they'd gain would be pretty good compensation, and Putin, of course, would have cemented his place in Russian history for ever more. He won't care what the cost is as long as he survives and the natives don't revolt.

Bob

[BillyStubbsTears]

http://m.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-31669061

Dear God

[Filo]

http://m.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-31669061

Dear God

There's one or two of Putin's opponants have died in mysterious circumstances, there appears to be a pattern emerging

[BillyStubbsTears]

There's a list on that BBC link.

Remember, this is a politician who Farage admires...

[Sprotyrover]

Be interesting to see what happens next,A vigorous pursuit of the slayers by the regime? Or maybe not.

[BillyStubbsTears]

Putin is "taking personal control" of the inquiry.

A Russian friend of mine has been saying for years that we're sleepwalking through a repeat of the rise of Hitler.

A superpower, defeated and humiliated by thoughtless Western powers. Economically crippled. Turning to a man who offers, through cult if personality, to restore their greatness.

He kills opponents. He bullies neighbours, upping the ante every time.

And the West hasn't the stomach to face him down. The people in the West are revulsed by the horror of previous wars and has no taste for standing up to the bully. The nations in the West have been hobbled by the near-collapse of their economic system, their idiotic response to this and the consequent enormous loss of income, meaning that they haven't the depth of pockets to take on the bully.

The parallels are genuinely terrifying. Except Hitler didn't have nukes...

[BillyStubbsTears]

And speaking of economic idiocy and mistakes with terrifying implications, this article really emphasises just how much we have f**ked up and called it "success".

http://mainlymacro.blogspot.co.uk/2015/02/disaster.html?m=1

Only once before in the past 200 years have we experienced such a prolonged loss of growth in per capita GDP. That wa during the previous era when we chose to placate a dictator in Europe.

The third graph in particular highlights just how monumentally stupid our response to the great crash was. This isn't some minor debating point. We have chosen an economic approach that has hard wired into the system a very long term reduction in our living standards.

Everything going on in politics at the moment is explained by that graph. The hatred of conventional politicians. The rush of some to stick the boot into immigrants as the cause of our problems. Our insistence on rolling back our public services. Our inability to find the economic wherewithal to stand up to the likes of Putin.

And none of this needed to happen. We have known since the 1930s how to respond to an economic catastrophe like 2007-08. But we have refused to apply those lessons and we've called on voodoo economics that have utterly failed throughout the UK and Europe.

Deeply, deeply dispiriting. And Osborne is going into the Election telling us that Austerity has worked and we need more of it.

Look at those graphs and ask yourselves.

[wilts rover]

And of course AH was emboldened on his course of world domination through his covert support of the fascist side in a civil war in another country.

If you tolerate this - then your children will be next....

[BillyStubbsTears]

Wilts.

Aye.

Big problem is that the catastrophic mistakes were made in the 1990s. We sat back and watched the Soviet Union fall apart. We humiliated Russia by pulling the Eastern European States into the embrace of the West while making no effort to help out Russia. We sat and watched Russia's economy collapse and ignored the raping of the country by the evil thugs who stole the resources and turned themselves into fabulously wealthy men. In fact, we British didn't ignore them. We welcomed these gangsters into the upper echelons of British society. They bought our penthouses and our football clubs.

It was monumentally stupid to allow a country with the military strength of Russia to be crippled like that. We should have had the equivalent of a Marshall Plan in the 90s to bring Russia into the West. Instead we watched them descend into catastrophe. It was inevitable that a reversion to punch-throwing nationalism would happen. And now it is happening, Christ alone knows what we should do about it.

[BobG]

Much as I'm horrified, scared and depressed by all of this, I have to confess I'm grinning about the links to Hitler above.

Anyone heard Sir John Sawyer's interview? It was on Radio4 this morning. It's worth listening to - despite him trying to justify the use of torture to secure information on the grounds that it's gone on for thousands of years. The crucial point, of course, is his belief that Russia now represents a real threat to the nation states of the west, explicitly including the UK. His recommendation? That we re-arm, and, that we try to find a way to re-engage Putin in the world system. Very laudable. And utterly fatuous now - although attempting to ensure that Putin retains some semblance of reality and humanity is about all that Merkel and Hollande can do.

Anyone still want to go for splendid isolation? This is going to get worse yet. It could very, very easily indeed get a lot worse. I doubt anyone would want to be on their own then. It'd guarantee disaster.

Kind of a scary graph that you linked too BST. I'm sure Mick will tell us all that it's perfectly wonderful and helpful, but in reality, the costs of that are so scary that I'm not even going to write them down. Just one of them is scary enough: our inability this last 6 or 7 years to invest sensibly in the things we now need to counter Putin.

Did you see the information, some months back now, that the funding for the security services going forwards was going to actually increase? Good news eh? But when you read the detail, that increase is £150M, spread across 3 years, for all 3 agencies on an annual budget of £3BN. It won't even buy the bog paper needed by the increased staff they're clearly needing now.

BobG

PS Billy: The spy I mentioned in connection with Cuba was Oleg Penkovsky. Although it's Wiki, this link 'confirms' the point I made:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Oleg_Penkovsky

His support of the West cost him his life.

[IC1967]

I've refrained from posting on this thread until now. I tried to read all the posts but had to give up after about 4 minutes as it was so boring.

Anyone that thinks Putin is a serious threat needs their heads examining. Russia is a 3rd world country with nuclear weapons. So what.

Turn up the sanctions on the t**t and he'll soon be out on his arse.

Sorted.

[BobG]

Thus spake the oracle.

I wondered how long it would be before our resident idiot displayed his ignorance once more.

BobG

[IC1967]

Thus spake the oracle.

I wondered how long it would be before our resident idiot displayed his ignorance once more.

BobG

I don't think silly Billy will appreciate you describing him in such a manner. He thinks he's very intelligent like you do. It's a shame that you both don't realise that spouting leftie b*llocks makes you both come across as very thick.

Let's get one thing straight. Putin is a bully (like you and silly Billy). Stand up to him and he'll soon back down (just like you and silly Billy do when I confront you).

Sanctions is the way to sort the clown out. The people will soon rise up against the idiot when they have a severe dose of hardship.

Sorted.

[BobG]

Tell you what Mick, if matters of mere world importance are too much for your Pleistocene era brain, you'll probably feel an awful lot better if you leave them alone. Let the more developed and superior human beings discuss them. I'm sure they'll do their best to look out for your welfare.

Bob

[IC1967]

Tell you what Mick, if matters of mere world importance are too much for your Pleistocene era brain, you'll probably feel an awful lot better if you leave them alone. Let the more developed and superior human beings discuss them. I'm sure they'll do their best to look out for your welfare.

Bob

Look. I've already come up with the solution. Having an interminable discussion about the man is a complete waste of time. I've sorted the problem out. It just remains to be seen if the politicians will do what is necessary.

I'd advise other readers of the forum not to bother wading through all the boring posts and to just read mine. Take my advice. The voice of reason has spoken and got succinctly to the point. Time to move on. There is nothing more to see here.

The only reason to read all the boring long winded posts is if you need help getting off to sleep.

[BobG]

Well in that case Mick I'm sure we would all really appreciate it if you leave this thread to those able to discuss it with a degree of intelligence and insight. Thanks for offering to leave it to your betters.

By the way Mick, I see you are now claiming to be better informed, better advised and making better judgements than the very recent head of MI6, Sir John Sawyer. You said:

"Anyone that thinks Putin is a serious threat needs their heads examining"

He said "Russia is now a state to state threat to the west" He also recommended that the UK re-arm as a matter of urgency.

So on what basis do you claim to know more than the chap in charge of foreign intelligence for this country until a couple of months ago?

BobG

[IC1967]

[quote author=BobG link=topic=251351.msg527101#msg527101 date=1425218618

By the way Mick, I see you are now claiming to be better informed, better advised and making better judgements than the very recent head of MI6, Sir John Sawyer who said:

"Anyone that thinks Putin is a serious threat needs their heads examining"

He said "Russia is now a state to state threat to the west" He also recommended that the UK re-arm as a matter of urgency.

So on what basis do you claim to know more than the chap in charge of foreign intelligence for this country until a couple of months ago?

BobG
[/quote]

Russia is not going to invade the UK. So no need to re-arm. The world has moved on. Wars with the likes of Russia should now be fought using economic sanctions.

The UK has more than punched above its weight in the world for as long as I can remember. Time for Germany etc. to take over responsibility for the defence of Europe. We've done our bit and it always ends up badly. Time for some self reflection and to exit stage west.

[BobG]

Who on Earth ever said anything about anybody invading anybody else? If that's the level of your
thinking then I really do feel sorry for you.

BobG

[IC1967]

Who on Earth ever said anything about anybody invading anybody else? If that's the level of your
thinking then I really do feel sorry for you.

BobG

The main reason we should have armed services is to protect our homeland. Invasion is now such a remote possibility that we can afford to disarm considerably.

 What do you want us to have armed services for? So we can get involved in other people's wars? That always ends well doesn't it.

If Russia is a state to state threat then let the affected states sort it out. We can help by imposing economic sanctions. That is a far more effective way of dealing with the likes of Putin than re-arming ever would be.

You've also forgotten we are virtually bankrupt. When money is tight I don't want it wasting on armed services to fight other people's wars. By all means have an armed services but it should only be on a scale that would deter invasion.

[BobG]

Like I said, the level at which you think Mick makes discussion with you utterly pointless.

You know what Mick? I have more intelligent, more reasoned, more rational and more evidenced conversations with my lad - and he's not even 14 yet. What prevented you from ever growing up? Was it congenital? Have they developed any treatment yet?

Bob

[IC1967]

Like I said, the level at which you think Mick makes discussion with you utterly pointless.

You know what Mick? I have more intelligent, more reasoned, more rational and more evidenced conversations with my lad - and he's not even 14 yet. What prevented you from ever growing up? Was it congenital? Have they developed any treatment yet?

Bob

Look. I'd appreciate it if you stopped trying to play the man and tried to discuss the matter at hand in a more rational way.

IC1967

[Sprotyrover]

Govt has announced it is beefing up Falkands defences spending £180 million extra over the next 10 years.

[Iberian Red]

Govt has announced it is beefing up Falkands defences spending £180 million extra over the next 10 years.

Excellent. A bit of barbed wire fencing and a gate?