Election prediction

[BillyStubbsTears]

Not mine. Here's one from Mick's favourite How-To-Separate-Fools-From-Their-Money rag.

 http://moneyweek.com/election-2015-why-david-cameron-will-remain-prime-minister/

Just posting it here as a record that we can check on May 8...

[The Red Baron]

I stopped reading at the point he said the Conservatives would win 7 seats in Scotland. Their vote may have held up but holding on to their single seat is probably the best they can hope for.

Lots of wishful thinking in that article.

[Snods Shinpad 2]

To save time I'll respond on behalf of the 'Voice of Reason'.


"As an expert in the field of gambling, I snapped up odds of a Cameron victory in (*insert fictional date*) at odds of (*insert fictional odds*)."

"I have staked (*insert fictional amount over £1,000*) and will be making a clear profit of (*insert fictional amount*)."

"In case this does not happen I have hedged my bets by placing (*insert slightly smaller fictional amount*) on both Labour and a 'no overall majority' bet at odds of (*insert fictional fraction*)."

"Either way it's a win-win for the Voice of Reason!"

"Get in!"

[Glyn_Wigley]

What's also telling is that in his analysis he immediately lumps the Libdems with the Tories as though its a done deal but completely ignores the possibility of the Libdems joining with Labour.

[IC1967]

Look. It's very simple. The Tories will win an overall majority. If they don't and it's a big if, they will form the next government with the LibDems. Either way Labour will once again be the opposition.

Whatever happens will be a win win for me. I've already hedged my bets so will make a huge profit regardless of the outcome.

I won't be too upset if by some miracle Labour do form the next government. They will only be able to do it with the help of the SNP and/or the LibDems. Having Labour in charge with an overall majority would be bad enough but to have them in charge with the support of others would be even worse.

Short term it would be a disaster for the country having that bunch of clowns in charge. Longer term it would be a good thing as once they started getting the blame for the inevitable cuts that are to come they would be unelectable for a generation. UKIP would then be in a much stronger position come the next election and we would end up with a very strong Tory/UKIP coalition that could move the country hugely to the right.

Then we could really get things sorted.

Get in.

[big fat yorkshire pudding]

I stopped reading at the point he said the Conservatives would win 7 seats in Scotland. Their vote may have held up but holding on to their single seat is probably the best they can hope for.

Lots of wishful thinking in that article.

I reckon they'll get 2.

I think it'll be tight at the moment and it is still too close to call.  Labour probably just ahead due to being a bit more popularist.  But neither is going to be close to a majority and a Labour government backed by the SNP will be disastrous.  I struggle to see how they can agree without EM or NS changing policy and if EM was to do that to get to be PM he'll get slaughtered even more than Clegg was in 2010.

[The Red Baron]

I suppose two Tory seats is a possibility, especially if they are the main challengers to the Lib Dems.

[BobG]

If the Tories don't end up as the largest party, and one way or another forming the next Govt, then they really must have royally f**ked things up. Given the longevity and depth of the propaganda bullshit that their minions have ben spouting for 5 years now they should win by a street. If they don't, they will go down in history as one of the most incompetant sets of politicians that that party has ever produced.

BobG

[Glyn_Wigley]

If the Tories don't end up as the largest party, and one way or another forming the next Govt, then they really must have royally f***ed things up. Given the longevity and depth of the propaganda bullshit that their minions have ben spouting for 5 years now they should win by a street. If they don't, they will go down in history as one of the most incompetant sets of politicians that that party has ever produced.

BobG

Most governments can be remembered for at least one or two keynote achievements or pieces of legislation, even if taken on the whole the government has been remembered as not a success. I struggle to think of any single keynote achievement that this government is going to be remembered for. Listening to their campaign, they seem to be struggling too as it's all negative about the opposition.

[BillyStubbsTears]

I stopped reading at the point he said the Conservatives would win 7 seats in Scotland. Their vote may have held up but holding on to their single seat is probably the best they can hope for.

Lots of wishful thinking in that article.

TRB

Exactly. That article lost whatever credibility it had when it said that the Tories and LDs would get 12 seats between them in Scotland. And that there would be a coalition involving both the LDs and UKIP.

That publication is a very strange one. You might remember that rambling stream of consciousness stuff they printed a few years ago "The End of Britain" which babbled on like a drunk pub bore about why Britain was going to the dogs and how they could explain how you could protect your assets if you simply sign on the dotted line and pay your subscription.

I suspect they make their money by identifying their demographic and telling them what they want to hear. God help folk if they actually believe these predictions and invest money on them though. 

[Glyn_Wigley]

For someone so sure of his facts and predictions, Mick doesn't half hedge his bets a lot...

[BillyStubbsTears]

Glyn

I think it's fairly safe to say that the Tories will win a majority.
Or they will form a coalition.
Or they will form a minority Govt

Or Labour will win a majority.
Or be in coalition with others.
Or form a minority Govt.

I think that covers it.

By the way, since we've got another troll bigging Mick up on his predictions, can anyone remember how many seats Mick assured us that UKIP were going to take off Labour. It'd spare me the squalid experience of trawling back through the witterings of the Ghost of Mick Past to look it up.

[Glyn_Wigley]

Glyn

I think it's fairly safe to say that the Tories will win a majority.
Or they will form a coalition.
Or they will form a minority Govt

Or Labour will win a majority.
Or be in coalition with others.
Or form a minority Govt.

I think that covers it.

By the way, since we've got another troll bigging Mick up on his predictions, can anyone remember how many seats Mick assured us that UKIP were going to take off Labour. It'd spare me the squalid experience of trawling back through the witterings of the Ghost of Mick Past to look it up.

Oh, now that it's obvious that UKIP are doing miserably he now maintains that UKIP supporters are being clever by tactically voting in order to get Tories in to stop Labour winning. Mind you, he hasn't explained why if that's the case UKIP are bothering to stand in Tory marginals as that completely flies in the face of his assertion..!

[wilts rover]

Its somewhere in region of 10 - 12 Billy. They are not going to take any of the Tories as anywhere that UKIP looks like spliting the Tory vote their supporters will suddenly vote tactically.

[The Red Baron]

I think UKIP will win somewhere between 3 and 5. Carswell will hold on in Clacton. They may keep Rochester and there are one or two seats where they are in a three way fight. In most of the Tory seats they are hoping to win they will suffer from tactical voting.

[BillyStubbsTears]

Difficult to say TRB. Their vote is slipping. Thanet looks like a cliffhanger for Farage. Poll last week had 2% between him, Con and Lab. Not beyond the realms of possibility that theyight end up with no-one but Carswell who is a shoo-in. And if that DOES happen, if UKIP and the Greens get 16-17% of the vote and only 2 MPs between them, that's be a disgrace.

[IC1967]

Glyn

I think it's fairly safe to say that the Tories will win a majority.
Or they will form a coalition.
Or they will form a minority Govt

Or Labour will win a majority.
Or be in coalition with others.
Or form a minority Govt.

I think that covers it.

By the way, since we've got another troll bigging Mick up on his predictions, can anyone remember how many seats Mick assured us that UKIP were going to take off Labour. It'd spare me the squalid experience of trawling back through the witterings of the Ghost of Mick Past to look it up.

Oh, now that it's obvious that UKIP are doing miserably he now maintains that UKIP supporters are being clever by tactically voting in order to get Tories in to stop Labour winning. Mind you, he hasn't explained why if that's the case UKIP are bothering to stand in Tory marginals as that completely flies in the face of his assertion..!

Excuse me. You've got a lot to learn about the tactics of a general election. UKIP are not doing miserably. If we had proportional representation then our poll rating would be much higher. As it is we've decided to keep Labour out at all costs so will vote tactically to do our best to try and make this happen.  In marginals where it's a fight between Labour and the Tories we will vote Tory.

Now it may surprise you to know that we do also attract people that previously voted Labour. So think about it. In a Tory Labour marginal any votes we take off Labour are going to help the Tories.

Got it, get it, good.

[Glyn_Wigley]

Glyn

I think it's fairly safe to say that the Tories will win a majority.
Or they will form a coalition.
Or they will form a minority Govt

Or Labour will win a majority.
Or be in coalition with others.
Or form a minority Govt.

I think that covers it.

By the way, since we've got another troll bigging Mick up on his predictions, can anyone remember how many seats Mick assured us that UKIP were going to take off Labour. It'd spare me the squalid experience of trawling back through the witterings of the Ghost of Mick Past to look it up.

Oh, now that it's obvious that UKIP are doing miserably he now maintains that UKIP supporters are being clever by tactically voting in order to get Tories in to stop Labour winning. Mind you, he hasn't explained why if that's the case UKIP are bothering to stand in Tory marginals as that completely flies in the face of his assertion..!

Excuse me. You've got a lot to learn about the tactics of a general election. UKIP are not doing miserably. If we had proportional representation then our poll rating would be much higher. As it is we've decided to keep Labour out at all costs so will vote tactically to do our best to try and make this happen.  In marginals where It's a fight between Labour and the Tories we will vote Tory.

Now it may surprise you to know that we do also attract people that previously voted Labour. So think about it. In a Tory Labour marginal any votes we take off Labour are going to help the Tories.

Got it, get it, good.

So why are UKIP standing in Tory marginals if you don't want to split the vote then? Nigel has today said that UKIP voters should vote Tory in seats where UKIP has no chance of winning - so why not just not run in those seats altogether and so not risk splitting the vote?

And yes, UKIP attracts previous Labour voters. But less than a quarter than those they take from the Tories. So think about it, by standing in Tory marginals they are going to damage the Tories far more than Labour.

https://yougov.co.uk/news/2014/02/24/where-ukip-gets-its-support/

Get in.

[BillyStubbsTears]

Glyn

While you're talking about "Get in", I'm amazed that our resident psephologist hasn't said anything about the polls for a few days. So I'll make my humble attempt to fill his mighty shoes.

Twelve polls in the past week. Labour ahead in 8. Tories ahead in 3. Tie in one.

Average figures:
Lab 34.3%
Con 32.7%

Now, Mick has long been telling us that there'll be a swing of voters as we get close to the Election. There was last week. Because the week before that, lab and Con were tied.

Get in.

[Glyn_Wigley]

Glyn

While you're talking about "Get in", I'm amazed that our resident psephologist hasn't said anything about the polls for a few days. So I'll make my humble attempt to fill his mighty shoes.

Twelve polls in the past week. Labour ahead in 8. Tories ahead in 3. Tie in one.

Average figures:
Lab 34.3%
Con 32.7%

Now, Mick has long been telling us that there'll be a swing of voters as we get close to the Election. There was last week. Because the week before that, lab and Con were tied.

Get in.

Plus of course, the more votes that UKIP get it artificially increases the Con-Lab swing due to where they get their votes from.

Get in.

[IC1967]

Glyn

I think it's fairly safe to say that the Tories will win a majority.
Or they will form a coalition.
Or they will form a minority Govt

Or Labour will win a majority.
Or be in coalition with others.
Or form a minority Govt.

I think that covers it.

By the way, since we've got another troll bigging Mick up on his predictions, can anyone remember how many seats Mick assured us that UKIP were going to take off Labour. It'd spare me the squalid experience of trawling back through the witterings of the Ghost of Mick Past to look it up.

Oh, now that it's obvious that UKIP are doing miserably he now maintains that UKIP supporters are being clever by tactically voting in order to get Tories in to stop Labour winning. Mind you, he hasn't explained why if that's the case UKIP are bothering to stand in Tory marginals as that completely flies in the face of his assertion..!

Excuse me. You've got a lot to learn about the tactics of a general election. UKIP are not doing miserably. If we had proportional representation then our poll rating would be much higher. As it is we've decided to keep Labour out at all costs so will vote tactically to do our best to try and make this happen.  In marginals where It's a fight between Labour and the Tories we will vote Tory.

Now it may surprise you to know that we do also attract people that previously voted Labour. So think about it. In a Tory Labour marginal any votes we take off Labour are going to help the Tories.

Got it, get it, good.

So why are UKIP standing in Tory marginals if you don't want to split the vote then? Nigel has today said that UKIP voters should vote Tory in seats where UKIP has no chance of winning - so why not just not run in those seats altogether and so not risk splitting the vote?

And yes, UKIP attracts previous Labour voters. But less than a quarter than those they take from the Tories. So think about it, by standing in Tory marginals they are going to damage the Tories far more than Labour.

https://yougov.co.uk/news/2014/02/24/where-ukip-gets-its-support/

Get in.

You must read my answers more carefully. We are standing in marginals to take votes off Labour therefore making it easier for the Tory to win. We will only vote UKIP if we have a good chance of winning. Otherwise we will vote Tory. That is all the ex Tories that are now UKIP.

The ex Labour UKippers will still vote UKIP. So whichever way you look at it UKIP are going to damage Labour considerably.

Get in.

[Glyn_Wigley]

You must read my answers more carefully. We are standing in marginals to take votes off Labour therefore making it easier for the Tory to win. We will only vote UKIP if we have a good chance of winning. Otherwise we will vote Tory. That is all the ex Tories that are now UKIP.

The ex Labour UKippers will still vote UKIP. So whichever way you look at it UKIP are going to damage Labour considerably.

Get in.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gxd5B98xJQg

[BobG]

Isn't it nice, really, really nice, to not have to read the insane, inane witterings of our resident lunatic? I've taken Billy's advice. I've stuck him on ignore.

Silly fellow. He could have learned a lot from folk on here. He could have made some extremely useful friends. But then, he never did understand what makes the world tick did he?

So Mick, why don't you push off? Just on this thread alone you can see the widespread contempt in which you are held.

Get in!

BobG

[IC1967]

Isn't it nice, really, really nice, to not have to read the insane, inane witterings of our resident lunatic? I've taken Billy's advice. I've stuck him on ignore.

Silly fellow. He could have learned a lot from folk on here. He could have made some extremely useful friends. But then, he never did understand what makes the world tick did he?

So Mick, why don't you push off? Just on this thread alone you can see the widespread contempt in which you are held.

Get in!

BobG

I offered you that advice ages ago. It's a shame Billy doesn't take his own advice. He's been prolific in responding to me today. Look Bob. You seem like a nice bloke deep down inside. Unfortunately it seems silly Billy has been PMing you and has turned you against me. I can live with that.

Unfortunately I don't know if you can. Silly Billy has turned you into a totally irrational psycopath and I genuinely fear for your sanity.  So do yourself a big favour. Put me on ignore permanently. You'll feel so much better for it. Leave it to silly Billy to challenge my views. He for all his faults is a much more worthy opponent.

Leave it to silly Billy. He has not cracked under the pressure and he's been at it a lot longer than you have. I'm sure the forum is glad that he has decided to take me on again. People do learn a lot from our exchanges. That is all I ask.

IC1967

[BobG]

This ignore button is just BRILLIANT!!!

Get in!

BobG

[big fat yorkshire pudding]

I still don't get Labour's policies though they are a bit hit and miss in terms of consistency and now answer as to how they'll achieve todays - how will they position theirselves to their voters as being the contrast to the Tory cuts line, but then say they aren't going to commit to spending?  It doesn't seem a consistent message.

The Tories are not doing great either in my opinion.  Whilst their policies make a lot of sense, their methods of communication are very poor.  And that could be where they will lose it.

However, if Labour really need an SNP hand to get power they're in bother, they've positioned themselves as polar opposites on nearly everything.  Someone may have to lose face there.

I expect LD will do better than most think as may the Tories and Labour in Scotland.  Backing the SNP in Scotland is fashionable but will people do it on the day?  Same as not backing the Tories, they tend to largely do better than polls suggest and I expect LD to aswell.

[BillyStubbsTears]

BFYP

Interesting point on the Tories and communication.

Look back at old elections. It's amazing how often the losing side tells itself that its policies were right but it just didn't communicate them well enough.

[Glyn_Wigley]

BFYP

Interesting point on the Tories and communication.

Look back at old elections. It's amazing how often the losing side tells itself that its policies were right but it just didn't communicate them well enough.

Even more amazing about the Tories and communication has been the lack of explanation about their sudden declaration of extra funding for the NHS...until they finally come up with the limp 'explanation' that it will come from a 'growing economy'. Which is exactly the sort of policy they claimed that would turn the UK into Greece under Labour at the last general election! It never ceases to amaze me how much of a short-term memory politicians think the electorate has at times!

[Filo]

BFYP

Interesting point on the Tories and communication.

Look back at old elections. It's amazing how often the losing side tells itself that its policies were right but it just didn't communicate them well enough.

Even more amazing about the Tories and communication has been the lack of explanation about their sudden declaration of extra funding for the NHS...until they finally come up with the limp 'explanation' that it will come from a 'growing economy'. Which is exactly the sort of policy they claimed that would turn the UK into Greece under Labour at the last general election! It never ceases to amaze me how much of a short-term memory politicians think the electorate has at times!

You mean this sort of lack of explanation, when asked a straight question?

Wasn't it David Cameron that said a straight question deserves a straight answer, only a couple of weeks ago?

http://www.mirror.co.uk/news/uk-news/george-osborne-refuses-answer-nhs-5507896

[big fat yorkshire pudding]

BFYP

Interesting point on the Tories and communication.

Look back at old elections. It's amazing how often the losing side tells itself that its policies were right but it just didn't communicate them well enough.

It is a convenient excuse really isn't it?

But I tend to think actually that Tory policy by and large is pretty good right now but they have immense problems getting the right message out.  Part of that is their poor communication and too much attacking of labour, but the other part is Labour strategy over a number of years portraying them really well.  The cut to inheritance tax is one of these - they say it helps the rich, but I'm a big believer in stopping inheritance tax, why should a child pay for their parent's wealth?  For example if I was to inherit my parents house why should I have to sell it to pay the tax I'd incur?

I actually think there are some pretty poor Labour policies about at the moment but they are getting headlines from it in a way that makes them look popular.  The energy one springs to mind about bills - popular but largely insignificant and actually more likely to see bills increase.

I'm looking forward to reading the manifestos though it should be interesting.  I don't think anyone is benefitting from class attacks or personal stuff.  Who cares if Ed can eat a bacon sandwich and who cares what school George Osbourne went to?  Kind of ironic that the one attacking him on his background went to the same school as him.  None of that affects any of us and is really not needed by any party.