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I can see an establishment forced stitch up before this is all over. Expect either Burnham or Cooper to stand aside and support the other. I can see it coming a mile off. The establishment cannot risk a coherent and very electable anti austerity alternative.
JonI agree with every word you say, but it's not good enough. You're going to have a period over the next few years where enough people will get better off enough to feel that they have got a stake in the status quo. Appealing to the Labour base, which is what Corbyn will do, will be enough to secure a 25-28% vote share, but no more than that. If a left-leaning Labour Govt is to return, it needs to do so on a different programme. It needs a coherent philosophical basis that explains the problems in the neo-lib model, but doesn't replace them with 1970s corporatism. It needs a basis that comes from Picketty's approach. Free markets, yes, but with the state playing an increased role to tax wealth and redistribute. And THEN, it needs a dynamic figurehead to distill that message down to something that will inspire 40% of the population. Corbyn isn't that man on either count. He's a throwback to Bennite corporatism and he will not inspire anyone who isn't already a believer.
Quote from: BillyStubbsTears on July 30, 2015, 10:49:36 amJonI agree with every word you say, but it's not good enough. You're going to have a period over the next few years where enough people will get better off enough to feel that they have got a stake in the status quo. Appealing to the Labour base, which is what Corbyn will do, will be enough to secure a 25-28% vote share, but no more than that. If a left-leaning Labour Govt is to return, it needs to do so on a different programme. It needs a coherent philosophical basis that explains the problems in the neo-lib model, but doesn't replace them with 1970s corporatism. It needs a basis that comes from Picketty's approach. Free markets, yes, but with the state playing an increased role to tax wealth and redistribute. And THEN, it needs a dynamic figurehead to distill that message down to something that will inspire 40% of the population. Corbyn isn't that man on either count. He's a throwback to Bennite corporatism and he will not inspire anyone who isn't already a believer. I tend to agree with you in terms of what Labour have to do, but further to that there is a real problem in that they also have to be different and how can Labour be different when the Tories have actually positioned themselves quite well? What can Labour do that is different and appeals? That's quite tough actually. What is sure is that none of the candidates are that exciting are they?
Ok, Bob & BST. Assuming both of you are correct, and I do agree with you both on some aspects of your arguments like the media aspect (even though the advent of social media is changing the game - exactly why Cameron wants to monitor it), do you see any of the others, or anyone else in the party for that matter, as being a voice of real change that the youth of this country want? That is really why my age in 1981 is irrelevant (i was 7 btw), it's people who have hit 40 and below who have lived through thatcherite shit all my life in both Tory and Labour governments who demand something better for my kid. I have been incredibly lucky to be where I am today, a very good job, decent pay and will get a pension that is ranked in the top 5 schemes in the country and plan to hang my boots up at 60 with a third of my final salary in my pocket a month. And I didn't do particularly well at school with no university education until my union sent me as a shop steward which led to where I am today. I have fallen on my feet. Unless my daughter is as lucky as me, to get even close she will be riddled with debt all her life. Does she not deserve the same free university education you and I assume Bob both got? That is why Labour lost the last election. Miliband fiddled round the edges on this and many other policies, offering no real alternative to the foul shit the Tories were offering. Corbyn will offer a real alternative and I think he can bring the "Middle England" votes with him, if he offers radical policy changes on transport (privatisation of rail costs tax payers TWELVE TIMES more in subsidies than when nationalised, savings which could reduce commuter fairs and improve services) housing (rent controls to stop landlords creaming off another tax payer subsidy in housing benefit) and tax avoidance and evasion which is the biggest scandal for a generation. Blair and New Labour are as much to blame for all of these things as the Tories for embracing them. That's why they weren't elected. That's why they are terminal in Scotland. And that's why if Corbyn doesn't win, I will chop my card up and post it to Iain McNeil. Because if someone cannot offer something better than a reinflated neoliberal bubble, we might as well start putting kids down mines and sent people like me to Australia on a one way ticket because that is what my daughter's future will look like.
TRBI'm not saying ANYONE could have won in 97. I'm saying that it didn't need a Blair moving so far to the right to win.
I'm finding it hilarious watching Labour fall apart. It's obvious what policies they should espouse if they ever want a chance to be elected. Here are a few:1 Out of Europe.2 Nationalisation of the railways and utilities.3 Living within the country's means.4 Public sector to never be more than 35% of the economy.5 Less welfare spending.6 Tax rates to fall every year in office.7 Abolish Trident.(Don't assume these are all policies that I agree with).I could go on. They need to differentiate themselves from the Tories. They need to realise that no-one is going to vote for a watered down version of the Tory party when they can have the real thing.I also notice that UKIP are being completely ignored in this debate. This is a very foolish thing to do. Labour should be nicking most of their policies and that would get them a huge shot in the arm. The way it's going I fully expect UKIP to become the main opposition to the Tories after the next election.IC1967
Quote from: IC1967 on July 31, 2015, 01:07:50 pmI'm finding it hilarious watching Labour fall apart. It's obvious what policies they should espouse if they ever want a chance to be elected. Here are a few:1 Out of Europe.2 Nationalisation of the railways and utilities.3 Living within the country's means.4 Public sector to never be more than 35% of the economy.5 Less welfare spending.6 Tax rates to fall every year in office.7 Abolish Trident.(Don't assume these are all policies that I agree with).I could go on. They need to differentiate themselves from the Tories. They need to realise that no-one is going to vote for a watered down version of the Tory party when they can have the real thing.I also notice that UKIP are being completely ignored in this debate. This is a very foolish thing to do. Labour should be nicking most of their policies and that would get them a huge shot in the arm. The way it's going I fully expect UKIP to become the main opposition to the Tories after the next election.IC1967Interesting that you don't mention strict immigration controls. I realise that to an extent it goes hand in hand with the European issue. But I am sure that is the main reason for people switching from Labour to UKIP.