This here Russian airyplane...

[BobG]

I know it's all conspiracy theory but I can't help wondering, like you do, if the Russians might be behind its downing? I can think of a reason or two why it might suit them. Or, for a hollow laugh, how about the Ukrainians as culprits? I doubt it is them for one very obvious reason, but it would be quite funny for all of 15 seconds if it were them - until the nukes went off. Years ago the Poles pulled an enormous stunt against the Russians once and kept its source secret for aeons. So there is precedent.

In reality, it is a very odd incident. Everyone is saying it can't be IS. The Russians are saying it wasn't the plane or the pilot. So that only leaves a bomb on board. That's easy to confirm or deny. The fun part will be allocating responsibility for it.... Easy enough to say 'Oh. It was the guy in seat 34D. He was from Syria...'.

Just who is conducting the investigation btw? Funny. I haven't heard that mentioned even once - yet it was all over every article and tv report for days that it was the Dutch who would be conducting the investigation into that Malaysian flight the Russians caused to be downed.

There's something doesn't feel right about this to me.

BobG

[Dagenham Rover]

I find its  very quick when you compare to most plane crashes that its been stated "external influences" and definitely  not pilot error or technical fault,  also when the initial reports came out they could hear people inside  all very  strange

[The Red Baron]

I very much doubt that the Russians would want to shoot down their own aircraft. Apparently the military action in Syria has been very popular in Russia, but the thought that reprisals might threaten the security of Russian people could make that popularity ebb away very quickly. The exact opposite of what Putin would want.

Interestingly the Egyptian and Russian authorities have both said it is too early to determine the cause. The people who have raised the idea of outside agency are the aircraft's operators. They would be keen to avoid any suspicion of mechanical/ structural failure of the plane.

[Muttley]

Everyone is saying it can't be IS. The Russians are saying it wasn't the plane or the pilot. So that only leaves a bomb on board.

I wouldn't believe anything the Russians said until there was some evidence to back it up. Some serious arse-covering going on there.

Bomb or mechanical fault in my book.

[wilts rover]

The Egyptians are leading the investigation, with assistance from the Russians and the Republic of Ireland as that is where the plane was registered.

[Filo]

There are two debris fields, which suggest that the plane broke up, apart from a catostrophic fuselage failure, which is highly unlikely, the only other explanation is an explosion, if surface to air missisles capable of reaching those hights are not in the posession of militants, the only other cause could be a bomb onboard. Either way, like the Japs rattled the yanks cage with pearl harbour, the islamic state might have just rattled the ruski's cage in the same manor

[wilts rover]

Just been reading a bit more about it. The Americans have satellite data that shows a 'flash or explosion' in the air at the time of the crash. But the same satellite doesn't show any evidence of a missile.

So the plane has almost certainly blown-up in midair, although whether this is from a bomb on board or a mechanical failure causing the fuel tanks to blow, I guess will come out in the investigation.

http://www.aljazeera.com/news/2015/11/flash-recorded-sinai-time-plane-crash-151103071304988.html

[BobG]

Some interesting and very helpful extra info in this thread chaps. Thank you.

So, a bomb looking the most likely. By whom, being the big question. Filo's theory? Mutley's arse covering ideas sound very wise too.

John: I wasn't thinking of the Russians doing this to themselves as any sort of domestic political prop. I was thinking of it perhaps being a prop for the international stage. Never very likely, but it's been done before and Putin is definitely ruthless enough if he wants something badly enough. Even WE have done it before. Churchill was the direct cause of the planned death of a large number of neutral American citizens, along with unavoidable collateral British and other deaths, in 1915. He is responsible for the death of 1,198 people in the Irish Sea in pursuit of the nations' strategic objective of pushing the Americans into the first world war. It was done deliberately and with foreknowledge of the consequences. The Germans have done it on quite a number of occasions. The French have done it on at least one occasion in the last 30 years. If Churchill could do it, if the Germans could do it, if the French could do it, it's certainly a possibility that Putin could do something similar.

I'm not ruling out state involvement just yet. International relations is a game played at sooo many levels and soooo many depths... For example: the Russians aiding the Egyptians with the investigation has opened a long running and private communications channel the Russians could exploit if they harbour a desire to make another friend in the Middle East. It could also provide the Russians with a huge amount of intelligence too if they happen to be interested. If he really was interested in one or both of those, what's a couple of hundred lives? Nothing. We already know he doesn't care about life. Just what did he think was going to happen when he actively and deliberately encouraged the start of a war in the Ukraine? When he gave the rebels modern day anti aircraft missiles? He comes from the nation of the Gulag, the tradition of the Gulag. He even comes from the organisation that set up and ran the bloody Gulag.

I'm not saying the Russians did it. I wouldn't have a clue. But I am saying that it is a perfectly credible hypothesis, that there are plenty of precedents, that the leader of Russia has history, experience and practical knowledge all pointing to an ability to do it, and, that his personality would have no qualms whatever about doing it. The Russians hold life as cheaply as we, the French and the Germans do when the chips are down.

Controversial eh? 

I just wish people would think a bit wider, look a bit deeper before accepting the ready made solution offered up by those in authority.

BobG

[wilts rover]

There's thinking wider and then there's moving off into fantasy land Bob!

Where your theory falls down flat is that Russia and Egypt have a long history of friendship, economic and military relations. The Russians are building an Egyptian nuclear programme. The Egyptians broke the current economic blockade of Russia to buy £3.5billion worth of arms from them. The Russians are investing in a Russian Industrial Zone around the Suez Canal. And crucially, Egypt is the main holiday destination for Russian tourists, who are indeed the largest tourist nationals in Egypt.

All those examples you gave earlier were designed to change an outcome. The only outcome that 'bomb' could change is a breaking of Russian-Egyptian relations not a creating of one? Why on earth would Putin want to do that with a bomb on a plane - he could just stop it like that?

But there is one country who would benefit from a breaking of those relations, and one who are certainly no strangers to 'black ops.'

[BobG]

Lol

I know they have Wilts. The Egyptian army was funded and provisioned by the Soviets for decades - at least until the Israelis smashed it in 1967 and 1974. I'm trying to illustrate the potential for alternative motivation. What I've written is exactly on a par with your final sentence

As for Putin and possible motivation - influencing opinion is a vital thing. Gather some sympathy now - cash it in a bit later. Who knows what he might have in his mind?

Bob

[Filo]

Well all flights from the UK and Irlend to Sharm el sheik suspended, and Lufhansa have suspended their flights as well. I think we might see Russia cut loose on Islamic State now

[idler]

U.K. Flights now to resume on Friday.

[silent majority]

Trouble is my wife is on standby to fly to Sharm tomorrow to bring back British tourists. Question is should I let her go? I don't really want to.

[BobG]

Depends on the state of your relationship I should think Martin!

BobG

[dknward2]

Tbh prob the safest time to fly security will be very tight.

Just tell her how you feel but say u understand that if she has to go then tell her you wont stop worrying until she is back. Get in her good books for when you want to do something

[Filo]

Trouble is my wife is on standby to fly to Sharm tomorrow to bring back British tourists. Question is should I let her go? I don't really want to.

They are repatriation flights, apparently only hand luggage will be allowed, the aircraft are coming from the UK, so it is highly unlikely a bomb will be smuggled aboard, if what they say is correct and ISIS does not have missiles to bring a plane down then I would consider those flights to be safe. I wonder if Egypt will allow a RAF survailance planes and a couple of Typhoons to patrol the skies whilst these repatriation flights take place, escorting the aircraft to safe airspace

[hoolahoop]

I very much doubt that the Russians would want to shoot down their own aircraft. Apparently the military action in Syria has been very popular in Russia, but the thought that reprisals might threaten the security of Russian people could make that popularity ebb away very quickly. The exact opposite of what Putin would want.

Interestingly the Egyptian and Russian authorities have both said it is too early to determine the cause. The people who have raised the idea of outside agency are the aircraft's operators. They would be keen to avoid any suspicion of mechanical/ structural failure of the plane.

Might it occur to you RB that it might benefit the Russians. Perhaps it would appear as if they are now somehow even more entitled to control most of the Middle East airspace.

In their view it is now deemed totally necessary to protect their interests. Hence the subsequent placements of Sam missiles in that theatre.

It also signals an added message to NATO ; keep out of our sphere of influence or things could become messy .

There are of course to be further revelations about MH17 coming out shortly . Perhaps this would help to dilute the international community's reaction should the finger be pointed directly at a Russian manned BUK crew.

Just thoughts and I'm sure there will be many more folk out there that think similarly. The Russians definitely are not above carrying out such acts of terror against their own people.

[silent majority]

Tbh prob the safest time to fly security will be very tight.

Just tell her how you feel but say u understand that if she has to go then tell her you wont stop worrying until she is back. Get in her good books for when you want to do something

Excellent advice!!

[Filo]

British intelligence are saying that after reviewing that days intelligence they've discovered extremist messages suggesting that a bomb was placed on the flight. The question now arises as to why it wasn't picked up on and shared at the time?

[glosterred]

British intelligence are saying that after reviewing that days intelligence they've discovered extremist messages suggesting that a bomb was placed on the flight. The question now arises as to why it wasn't picked up on and shared at the time?

If British intelligence discovered the message, what makes you think that the Russians didn't and didn't act on it either?

[Filo]

British intelligence are saying that after reviewing that days intelligence they've discovered extremist messages suggesting that a bomb was placed on the flight. The question now arises as to why it wasn't picked up on and shared at the time?

If British intelligence discovered the message, what makes you think that the Russians didn't and didn't act on it either?

I never said that, the Russians haven't admitted they intercepted these messages, British intelligence have

[The Red Baron]

I doubt that the message was specific about the aircraft and anyway was probably picked up after the plane was brought down. Probably some insurgents congratulating themselves on their success.

[Filo]

Russia have now suspended all flights to Egypt

[glosterred]

Maybe they intercepted that message after all

[Filo]

Maybe they intercepted that message after all

Maybe, they're obviously in possesion of more information to do that

[jonnydog]

Trouble is my wife is on standby to fly to Sharm tomorrow to bring back British tourists. Question is should I let her go? I don't really want to.

Has your lass got on alright SM?

[silent majority]

Trouble is my wife is on standby to fly to Sharm tomorrow to bring back British tourists. Question is should I let her go? I don't really want to.

Has your lass got on alright SM?

As it happens she was out of hours before the flight was called. (She was on call from 3am until 10am) Unfortunately she has to do the same thing again tomorrow. She's whittling herself daft at the minute! Listening to all the media reports about flights being turned back etc isn't helping.

[BobG]

British intelligence are saying that after reviewing that days intelligence they've discovered extremist messages suggesting that a bomb was placed on the flight. The question now arises as to why it wasn't picked up on and shared at the time?

I can answer that Filo.

Picking up intelligence in time for it to do any good is, more often than you would think, a matter of luck. if you consider the number of emails, texts and phone calls that take place every single day, not even the combined resources of the KGB, the CIA, GCHQ, the DSG and everybody else would be able to both cover everything and analyse it.

So, judgement has to be used. Pick on the most likely targets, the most likely areas, the most likely suspects, the known suspects. But then you miss the unknown.... And that is why the CIA and GCHQ and others have indulged in mass trawling and data capture. They use statistical techniques and logic programmes to work out who was talking to whom, who knows whom and who knows one or two of those whom's. Lol. And then you end up with more targets. So which existing ones do you drop?

We spend several billion a year on intelligence. We could spend as many hundreds of billions and still not get to everyone we need to. That's why the sharing of data across the various western agencies (and others) is so important. It helps spread the load. Snag with that is, it is dominated by the wealth and the power of the USA. They pull almost all the strings and they are very, very demanding. So our focus ends up looking where they want us to look.

BobG

[eastender]

Talking of Russian Planes, the largest plane in the world a Russian Antonov AN-225 will be landing at Robin hood next Tuesday at 10.40am for anyone interested.

[BobG]

I saw that thing at Fairford a few years back. It's bloody ENORMOUS!

BobG