Febuary Fixtures

[The Red Baron]

In the next 5 games we have 3 of the top 7 plus two local derbies. We're now down to 16th, potentially only 7 points above the drop zone if Fleetwood win their game in hand. There might still be another way out of this league...

Now, I'm usually the king of the pessimists when it comes to relegation battles, but even I don't think we'll go down.

We're on 36 points. Somewhere in the region of 52-53 is usually needed for safety. That's 4-5 wins and a handful of draws from 18 remaining games. I know we could experience a similar collapse to 2010-11, but I don't see it somehow.

Anyway, as today's rather strange results proved, League position guarantees little in League One.

[tonybuk86]

So. if we have to win the last game of the season to get that sixth spot would you want us to lose or draw so we dont get it?

Of course I would want us to win, But we have done this before, gone up to the championship with a team that is not ready for the championship, if we go up next year, we will struggle, I would like us to have one more season in league one and sign some good players in the summer, and try and push.

Then we can have 3 transfer windows to rebuild the squad instead of one transfer window to rebuild.

[The Red Baron]

I think we should not be aiming for play offs, due to the fact we are not ready to be in the championship.

Makes for an interesting team talk that. Inspirational stuff.

Of course as a manager you wouldn't tell your players you are not aiming for promotion. Your aim, and theirs, is to win every game. You also want to finish as high as you can.

However sometimes as a supporter you have to temper things with a bit of realism. We would need almost a completely new squad in order to compete in the Championship, and the manager needs time to build that. I hope we'll look a lot better equipped this time next season.

As someone said, this season is very like 2006-07, although in that season at least we had the Johnstones to look forward to. I actually think we had a better side then, although it wasn't the finished article. It still needed the addition of the likes of Mills, Wellens and Hayter to make it look anything like ready for the Championship though. Also some players needed to be moved on. Plenty of work still to be done.

[BillyStubbsTears]

TRB

Sounds like a repeat of a couple of years ago, but you ARE being unduly pessimistic. 52-53 points is WAY above what will be needed for safety this year.

None of the bottom six has a season average PPG that equates to more than 49 points over 46 games. And none of them are showing any sign of suddenly coming into form.

47-48 points tops to stay up. 45 is more likely.

[RedJ]

So. if we have to win the last game of the season to get that sixth spot would you want us to lose or draw so we dont get it?

Of course I would want us to win, But we have done this before, gone up to the championship with a team that is not ready for the championship, if we go up next year, we will struggle, I would like us to have one more season in league one and sign some good players in the summer, and try and push.

Then we can have 3 transfer windows to rebuild the squad instead of one transfer window to rebuild.

Personally, I think we went up with a manager not ready for the Championship...

[The Red Baron]

BST

Yes, but history shows that invariably at least club at the foot of the table suddenly hits Championship-winning form around March time.

If you go back two seasons we all thought Charlton were dead in the water at this stage. In fact, you'd have tipped Barnsley as being more likely to stay up. But Charlton survived, and didn't even finish fourth bottom.

Not quite a comparable example, but look at Blackpool this season. They looked odds-on for the drop the time we won there, but yesterday they beat the second placed team and they won their previous home game 5-0.

At the moment, I'd say Colchester, Crewe and Oldham look doomed and will probably struggle to get to 45 points. The other spot is up for grabs, and maybe someone who looks really safe now will fill it. My own guess is Swindon, but it might be someone who is currently looking up rather than down.

I still think the team in 21st will be closer to 52 points to 46. And we really don't want another dose of squeaky bum time!

[RedJ]

I'd love it to be Barnsley.

[BillyStubbsTears]

TRB

Yes, SOMETIMES a team at the bottom hits form in the last third of the season. But equally likely is that another team falls into even worse than average form (eg us in 13/14). What rarely happens is a sustained increase in form by several teams, leading to a significant shift in the average PPG required to finish in a given position.

It can happen, and it sometimes does. But on balance, you wouldn't bet on it. As things currently stand, for 53 points to be the safety target, 3 of the bottom six would have to suddenly hit comfortable mid-table form and keep that going for 3 months. AND, the team's just above them would have to not have a slump in form.

As I say, it might happen, but I'd want long odds if I were going to bet on it.

[les@donr]

Three local derbies, Scunny Bunnies, Blunts and Dingles

[Crowle Rover]

I'd love it to be Barnsley.

So would I but the run they're on could see 'em sneak play offs!!

[Donnywolf]

I'd love it to be Barnsley.

I had the charity bet on Tykes for promo (Bluebell Wood the beneficiaries) and said that they would probably be a place above us and they are on a run and wont go down although ...

... Johnson may be off to BCFC soon (maybe that's why Barnsley did not sack him - for the Compo) and Leeds are sniffing for Winnall who I have at 20/1 for top scorer in Div 1 so that may steady them and cost me 40+ quid

[drfchound]

So. if we have to win the last game of the season to get that sixth spot would you want us to lose or draw so we dont get it?

Of course I would want us to win, But we have done this before, gone up to the championship with a team that is not ready for the championship, if we go up next year, we will struggle, I would like us to have one more season in league one and sign some good players in the summer, and try and push.

Then we can have 3 transfer windows to rebuild the squad instead of one transfer window to rebuild.

Tony, a time the Rovers go up to the Championship we are going to struggle to stay there.
Our fan base is too small and therefore so is our available.
With the exception of one and a half seasons in the Championship we have always been in a relegation battle.
I can't imagine that any future promotion would have us in a different situation.

[Sammy Chung was King]

Whoever goes up from this league, would need a fair few players adding to what they have. The championship in my opinion looks stronger than last time we were there.
As a matter of interest how many of our current squad, have got maybe another 20% to add to their game to be able to compete in that league?.

[Alan Southstand]

Do we really need to answer that, Sammy? As many supporters have already suggested, there is a major cull required. Trouble is, are the Board ready, or up for it?

We are getting further and further away from a return to the Championship, IMHO, as we simply do not have a structure in place to achieve and sustain it. PD's tenure has put us back years.

[IDM]

Do we really need to answer that, Sammy? As many supporters have already suggested, there is a major cull required. Trouble is, are the Board ready, or up for it?

We are getting further and further away from a return to the Championship, IMHO, as we simply do not have a structure in place to achieve and sustain it. PD's tenure has put us back years.

I think any major cull would be after the season ends.  And why wouldn't the board be up for it??

[The L J Monk]

One down, four to go....

[jonnydog]

I can see us coming out of this month with not many points at all. If we play against Blunts the way we have played the last two games we will get absolutely  slaughtered!

[drfchound]

It could be a really poor game then because the blunts fans i know keep telling me how bad THEY are as well.

[The Red Baron]

TRB

Sounds like a repeat of a couple of years ago, but you ARE being unduly pessimistic. 52-53 points is WAY above what will be needed for safety this year.

None of the bottom six has a season average PPG that equates to more than 49 points over 46 games. And none of them are showing any sign of suddenly coming into form.

47-48 points tops to stay up. 45 is more likely.

Just had a look at last season now that the excellent Statto.com is back up and running. You can use the data there to argue both ways.

At a comparable stage last season, the fourth-bottom side (Colchester) was on 28 points from 29 games. The current 4th bottom (Fleetwood) is also on 28, but from 27 games.

Colchester finished on 52 and avoided relegation by winning on the final day (51 was the number needed for safety).

Of the bottom six in mid-February, four were in the bottom six at the end of the season. The exceptions were Crewe, who were seventh-bottom and also avoided relegation on the final day, and Notts County. Scunthorpe and Coventry finished outside the bottom six, although defeat for Coventry on the last day could have sent them down.

Notts County is the example that should concern us. They were 15th in mid-February with 38 points from 29 games. They ended up with 50 and were relegated. We are currently on 36 from 29. Eek!

I think I looked at things from the wrong end of the telescope. The issue isn't so much struggling teams hitting form in the last three months of the season. It is a mid-table team that suddenly hits relegation form, not for half a dozen games but for 12 or more.

Nothing that a couple of wins wouldn't solve, but confidence must be rock bottom at the moment.

[wesisback]

In the next 5 games we have 3 of the top 7 plus two local derbies. We're now down to 16th, potentially only 7 points above the drop zone if Fleetwood win their game in hand. There might still be another way out of this league...

Did you put any money on this?

[Sammy Chung was King]

I'm going to go against my original prediction for Millwall i think we might just nick a draw, rather than lose. I see us carrying on the bad run until the Colchester game, then we'll start picking results up again.
We have lost the last four by one goal, with player fitness getting better i might be totally wrong, we have good individual players, not enough of them in my opinion, but while they wear a rovers shirt i will hope they do well.

 I don't like criticising because if you get too many doing it, it ruins it for others on here, i hope you take my comments as just wanting the best from my club as a fan, i will follow them even if it was in the conference north.
Here are what i see us doing in the next five

Millwall-Draw
Swindon-Loss
Shrewsbury-Win
Bradford-Loss
Peterborough-Loss

4 points from fifteen, but i see us losing these games narrowly, just like our previous four games, i see the Colchester game as one that gets us properly back on track.

[drfchound]

If those results do come to pass then it would be a run of 6 points from 33 played for.
If it was PD in charge then this board would be full of "manager out "posts.
Also, if it comes true, even a win against Colchester would leave us in the bottom four because we would be in there by then.

[The Red Baron]

Makes interesting reading, this. BST et moi having our annual discussion on how many points will be needed for safety.

I was well off-beam about Oldham though!

[Chris Black come back]

I'll do the annual sticking out of my neck.

90 points for second place
74 points for 6th place
66 points for top half finish.
45 points to stay up.

Being the eternal optimist that I am, I'll go for us winning the last 18 matches on the bounce and pipping Walsall to 2nd spot on the last day of the season.

Errrrrm.

[BillyStubbsTears]

TRB

Aye. Looks like you might have been closer to the mark.

However, before you get TOO cocky mate,think on.

What I've always been doing is predicting he many points the 4th bottom side would get, then assuming that a club could stay up with 1 point more. I guess there's a doctrinal debate to be had about whether that is the definition of a safety target, or whether it should be beating the number of points that the team that eventually finishes 5th bottom happens to get. It seems pretty clear to me that the real target is to beat the points total that the 4th bottom side gets.

As things currently stand, the only way that 53 points an be that target is if Blackpool & Fleetwood win their last two and Shrewsbury and Chesterfield also pick up a couple of points each.

Sure, I was too bullish on the 45 points target. But it's still not out of the question that 47-48 points will end up being the actual figure that the 4th bottom side gets.

[BillyStubbsTears]

TRB

By the way, I seem to remember offering you a bottle of scotch if we ended up getting 50-odd points and still went down. Can't find the post but you can hold me to it if that does come to pass.

[The Red Baron]

If Blackpool win their last two games then the safety figure will be 53. If they don't, and we do, it will be 52.

We might stay up with 51, but I'm pretty certain if we do it will be on goal difference.

[BillyStubbsTears]

TRB

Not quite right.

Your two predictions fall down unless Fleetwood also get 4 or 3 points and both Chesterfield and Shrewsbury get 2 or 1.

It's now highly, highly unlikely that the target to finish above the fourth bottom side will be 53 points Less unlikely that it will be 52, but still big odds against.

[adamtherover]

Blackpool needed a one nil win, that wud have killed Fleetwood goal difference.  Soda law, they had a goal just about the cross the line when one of the players in an offside position tapped it in.   Gggrrrr