Peterboro

[Bristol Red Rover]

Have lost again, that's one draw in their last 7 league games, 2 draws and a win in their last 11. Having lost today with 2 goals in the last 5 mins, they have to be low in spirit and there for the taking next weekend 

Enjoy the ride 

[stuey]

Pretty sure their fans will be saying much the same about us. Massive game next week

[normal rules]

they are all massive. blackpool, crewe and colchester still to play also

[Lesonthewest]

We are currently top of the mini league 5 at the bottom, we need to keep it that way, our season starts next Saturday & the players must be made aware of what's expected over the remainder of the season, they should give everything, every single one of them.

[BigH]

I reckon that 3 wins and 2 draws will keep us up. Given the teams that we're due to play, if we can't get that then, frankly, we deserve to go down.

[BillyStubbsTears]

We are currently top of the mini league 5 at the bottom, we need to keep it that way, our season starts next Saturday & the players must be made aware of what's expected over the remainder of the season, they should give everything, every single one of them.

I think it's more a case of being mid-table in a mini-league of eight or nine teams. Shrewsbury, Fleetwood and Chesterfield still have plenty of work to do if they want to push themselves into a safe position. They've just got a head start on a few teams in terms of points.

In all probability, this will go down to the last couple of games where tension goes up tenfold.

Chesterfield and Fleetwood maybe. Peterboro and Shrewsbury (Shrewsbury! That shower of dogshite from last week!) haven't got "plenty" to do. They've got a little bit to do.

[les@donr]

We are currently top of the mini league 5 at the bottom, we need to keep it that way, our season starts next Saturday & the players must be made aware of what's expected over the remainder of the season, they should give everything, every single one of them.

I think it's more a case of being mid-table in a mini-league of eight or nine teams. Shrewsbury, Fleetwood and Chesterfield still have plenty of work to do if they want to push themselves into a safe position. They've just got a head start on a few teams in terms of points.

In all probability, this will go down to the last couple of games where tension goes up tenfold.

Chesterfield and Fleetwood maybe. Peterboro and Shrewsbury (Shrewsbury! That shower of dogshite from last week!) haven't got "plenty" to do. They've got a little bit to do.

Do you mean us or the Shrews? If it is the Shrews, they beat us last week, therefore, we are a bigger shower of dogshite than them.

[Copps is Magic]

Our saving grace is the 4 teams below us are not very good. In fact, they are terrible. 3 of them conceeded 3 goals again today.

It's plausible to me we can catch Fleetwood.

[Lesonthewest]

We are currently top of the mini league 5 at the bottom, we need to keep it that way, our season starts next Saturday & the players must be made aware of what's expected over the remainder of the season, they should give everything, every single one of them.

I think it's more a case of being mid-table in a mini-league of eight or nine teams. Shrewsbury, Fleetwood and Chesterfield still have plenty of work to do if they want to push themselves into a safe position. They've just got a head start on a few teams in terms of points.

In all probability, this will go down to the last couple of games where tension goes up tenfold.

Personally I think those bottom 4 are the one's we have to take care of, the 3 teams you mention have shown improvement of late & I expect them to get the couple of wins to see them over the line.

[les@donr]

We are currently top of the mini league 5 at the bottom, we need to keep it that way, our season starts next Saturday & the players must be made aware of what's expected over the remainder of the season, they should give everything, every single one of them.

I think it's more a case of being mid-table in a mini-league of eight or nine teams. Shrewsbury, Fleetwood and Chesterfield still have plenty of work to do if they want to push themselves into a safe position. They've just got a head start on a few teams in terms of points.

In all probability, this will go down to the last couple of games where tension goes up tenfold.

Personally I think those bottom 4 are the one's we have to take care of, the 3 teams you mention have shown improvement of late & expect I them to get the couple of wins to see them over the line.

Agree, the outcome of the Tuesday match between Oldham v Blackpool will be crucial for us, best result has to be a draw, anything else we are in the bottom 4.

[BigH]

Our saving grace is the 4 teams below us are not very good. In fact, they are terrible. 3 of them conceeded 3 goals again today.

It's plausible to me we can catch Fleetwood.

Have to disagree. We are officially the poorest team in this league since the turn of the year. Our results, game stats and quality of underlying performances evidence this.

Personally, I can't see where its going to come from. 

[les@donr]

We are already relying on other teams results, today if either Oldham or Blackpool had won we would have been in the bottom 4. I agree if we take care of our own form our destiny is still in our hands. Sadly it dies not look like it's going to improve any time soon.

[the vicar]

Peterborough there for the taking, we couldent take a good shit properly aor lot

[dickos1]

We are already relying on other teams results, today if either Oldham or Blackpool had won we would have been in the bottom 4. I agree if we take care of our own form our destiny is still in our hands. Sadly it dies not look like it's going to improve any time soon.

Yeah but guess what they didn't, because they're also shit,
They have been consistently a lot worse than us over the season

[BillyStubbsTears]

Rigo

It depends what you mean by "guarantee".

If you are talking about mathematical certainty from this position, I guess the target is probably about 60 points (as in, it's probably pretty much certain, even with the most bizarre set of results) that the team that finished fourth bottom can, from here, get to 60 points.

But we all know that is daft. Even if it is theoretically possible that the 4th bottom team could get 59 points, it's not going to happen.

Owt below that, and you're into probabilities. You are suggesting that 53-54 points will be needed to be certain of staying up.

I'm saying that that is an unrealistically high target to set. For that to be the target, it requires 2 of us, Blackpool and Oldham to hit play-off/automatic promotion form from now to May. And that ain't going to happen.

I can't guarantee what the safety target will be. But I will be amazed if the team finishing 5th bottom needs more than 50 points to be safe. And I'd guess that 47-48 woukd give you a better-than-evens chance of staying up. In which case, Shrewsbury and Peterboro need little more than a nudge to get over the line. 

[Chris Black come back]

If we sat down on toilet at moment and took a shit, we would miss the bowl.

We are rubbish. Awful. Dreadful.

But nothing can go on for this long. It must end.

[mrfrostsdad]

We are already relying on other teams results, today if either Oldham or Blackpool had won we would have been in the bottom 4. I agree if we take care of our own form our destiny is still in our hands. Sadly it dies not look like it's going to improve any time soon.

You've said it yourself - 'our destiny is still in our hands'.

I'll say it again too, form is irrelevant. Somewhere today, some team who has been in bad form or on a winless streak, will have won. Over the next few weeks, that team will go a couple of games unbeaten - and suddenly a winless streak will have transformed into an unbeaten run.

It can change just like that - and the form table now, based on the past 10 games, will be different to the form table over the next 10 games.

You've got to find a middle ground and not get too carried away when form is good or bad.

And as you've said - 'our destiny is still in our own hands'. The players know their objectives, know the task, they've got to go out and prove that they're prepared to put enough effort in to achieve it.

I see where you're coming from but not strictly true as Oldham has 2 games in hand on us. I think

[drfchound]

The longer this run goes the worse it sounds when we are looking at "what we need to stay up".
A couple of weeks ago it was 12/13 points from 13 games.
It is now 12/13 points from 10 games.

[BillyStubbsTears]

Rigo

Fair dos. I guess your looking for effectively absolute safety. You could have set 54 points as a realistic absolute safety standard at the start of the season, because it's about 1 time in 100 that a side gets relegated with that points total. I'm not sure that any team has ever been relegated on 55 points.

But from where we are now, there's not a chance in a thousand that 54 points will be needed to stay up this season.

If Peterborough, say, were to get 53 points and go down, it's mean that four of the following five would have to happen:

Oldham would get 20 points from 12 games. Play-off form
Blackpool: 19 from 10. Promotion form
Rovers: 17 from 10. Play-off form
Chesterfield: 13 from 10. Mid-table form
Fleetwood: 14 from 11. Mid-table form.

2 or even three of those might just happen at a push. It's stretching credulity to think that 4 would.

So aye, 54/55 points would certainly guarantee safety. But if we're making judgements about what realistic targets ought to be, you can shave at least 4/5 points off that.

[neil grainger]

We are currently top of the mini league 5 at the bottom, we need to keep it that way, our season starts next Saturday & the players must be made aware of what's expected over the remainder of the season, they should give everything, every single one of them.

Spot on Les, you've nailed it there

[mrfrostsdad]

Right. The season for us starts next Saturday. The players should have been giving everything they've got the last 11 games. Unfortunately they haven't. In fact at Scunthorpe on Tuesday night there were several who didn't look as though they gave a toss.
Can't comment in today as I really couldn't go through it all again. Even the official site says we were second best so i can't imagine it was much better than Scunny

[godlike1]

We are f**ked

[drfc1951]

With fans like you we are.

[1879Rovers]

I'd say a banker 0-0 next week but can't see us keeping a clean sheet.

[BillyStubbsTears]

If, say 50 points, were to be enough, could you handle what would quite possibly be a nerve-jangler for the last game - not necessarily starting the day in the safe position(s) either?

That's why I'd set the target at 53/54/55 points after 45 games. It's always lovely to go into that final day and enjoy it, rather than dread it.

I think we're at crossed purposes here.

You are talking about optimal, ideal outcomes. I'm talking about what is actually likely to happen.

Yes, of course any fan would love for their club to be home and hosed with weeks to spare. But the trouble is, aiming for unrealistically and unnecessarily high targets has its own risk. As we saw three years ago. Stupidly aiming for a high points target in the final few matches sent us down, when we could have limped over the line.

If we do the same again this season, that would be unforgivable.

[essexrover]

I'd say a banker 0-0 next week but can't see us keeping a clean sheet.

Peterborough usually score even when losing, unlike Rovers at the moment.And against our defence........ 

[dickos1]

That's exactly what we did yesterday

[godlike1]

With fans like you we are.
[/quote

With the current performances you tell me otherwise then

Their not even talking about investing in the squad to get us out of this mess and no I don't mean loaning untried kids

[dickos1]

How can they invest in the squad to get us out of this mess when the window is shut

[BillyStubbsTears]

Rigo

A major contributing factor to our relegation in 2014 was that we went hell for leather for victories, having publicly set a target of 50 points. In doing so, we made selection/substitution decisions that lost us games where we could have ground out a point or two. It proved terminal.

As for the example you give, yes there will always be outliers (although I'm not sure what the state of the table half way through the season has to do with what we're now talking about - we've less than a quarter to go now, and back in mid-March 2013, no-one was predicting that it would be the lowest ever points total to go down from the PL.)

But the point is that what sensible sides should be doing at the moment is playing the percentages. Looking to get themselves to points totals that give them 50, 60, 70 and more % chance of survival. Because the alternative, setting an arbitrarily high total,m is like shooting for the stars. You can just as well fall in the gutter. Like we did 3 years back.