Question for the EU experts

[Bentley Bullet]

If given a referendum on whether to remain/exit the EU, what would other member countries decide?

[Glyn_Wigley]

Given that everybody expected our referendum to be a Remain win, what do you think?

[Bentley Bullet]

I ruled myself out in offering my opinion when I aimed the question at the EU experts of which I'm not. It's a bit disappointing that only one expert has commented, and even then chose to deflect the question back rather that share his own wisdom.

Experts eh!

[Glyn_Wigley]

I know about the trade mechanisms in regards to being inside and outside of the EU and the Single Market. Nice of you to regard me as an expert, even though you've shown no sign of believing what I have said. I have never given any impression that I know the mindset of the citizens of every other EU country. Why you think I - or indeed anyone else on the forum - would is one of life's mysteries I imagine. Unless you're just trying to clever and failing, of course.

[RedJ]

Nice of you to regard me as an expert, even though you've shown no sign of believing what I have said.

That's cos people are tired of listening to experts, obviously.

[Bentley Bullet]

GW

Hey, I'm not trying to be clever! otherwise I wouldn't be honest enough to say I know now't about the EU nations and their people's thoughts. I'm just a tad disappointed that no one has offered a more educated opinion.

[Glyn_Wigley]

Why are you disappointed? Has someone said they know anything about the mindset of the citizenship of the rest of the EU and I've missed it?

[Bentley Bullet]

Well you must have missed the bit I read/heard (Can't remember which) about the Germans choosing to leave should they be given the choice. Not sure if other countries were mentioned likewise.

[Glyn_Wigley]

I did miss it. Who said it? Perhaps you should PM them..?

[Dutch Uncle]

Not an expert, but I did work in an international organisation for a long time, and I would think most countries would have voted to remain.

The German government clearly wanted the UK to stay and IMHO, push come to shove, most Germans believe in the EU, having seen first hand the devastations of European wars. They know NATO is the cornerstone of deterrence, but EU membership means constant dialogue with neighboring countries, and the possibility of sending economic rather than military signals to Russia.

Ireland clearly want to stay as they benefit a lot.

I think countries in Southern  Europe (possibly excepting Greece)  would see the EU as an organisation that was financially helping them, and they would be desperate to avoid a domino unravelling of the EU.

Similarly countries in Eastern Europe, mostly recent members of EU, would IMHO vote remain for the same reason, coupled with a feeling of better security within the EU.

The Netherlands and Denmark would be fairly evenly split. IMHO, during the 36 years I lived there, the Netherlands has recently been transforming from a hugely liberal and proudly multi-national multi-cultural welcoming society to one of increasing mistrust and xenophobia. France, like NL, might be split.

Belgium is such a split country anyway it is difficult to know what they would do, but their people might think a EU unravelling would lose them their EU institutions and jobs. At an absolute guess, Luxembourg, would vote remain, since like Belgium they would reckon an EU unravelling would mean they would lose their EU institutions.   

The Baltics' main issue is Russia, and although NATO Article V is their main cornerstone, membership of the EU means EU wide economic measures are another deterrent option, so I think they would vote remain.   

Other countries such as Malta, Cyprus, Sweden, Austria, I have little idea

[Dagenham Rover]

So most of the original members could well be split and have a tight vote that could go either way like the UK and the "newer" members would almost certainly vote remain. Hmmmm interesting especially as it tends to be the long standing members who are  the ones that do all the paying in
Just generalising 

[idler]

My mate's son in law is German and both him and his English wife say that Germany wouldn't  dare have a referendum as the majority would vote out. They reckon immigration is a massive issue there.

[Dutch Uncle]

To be fair, most Germans I know (and other non Dutch and non-UK nationalities) have been those working for an international organisations, so are probably not the most representative in their EU views 

Reminds me of the 'poll' a student friend of mine ran which suggested if there was a General election soon, 33% would vote Conservative, 33% would vote Labour and 33% would vote Trotski-ist. While admitting that the sample of 3 was on the small side he did say that all those polled claimed to be extremely representative. 

[Donnywolf]

Well you must have missed the bit I read/heard (Can't remember which) about the Germans choosing to leave should they be given the choice. Not sure if other countries were mentioned likewise.

I think you heard on BBC News a day or so after Referendum that Germany Netherlands and a third Nation I cant remember which were "filled with trepidation" after we voted narrowly to leave as they thought a) that they would be pressured into holding a similar Referendum and b) the feeling grass roots wise they would vote the same way as we did

[Muttley]

Survey by IFOP (French pollsters) gave these results:

IFOP survey: Support for EU up post-#Brexit vote:
89% Poland
81% Germany +18
81% Spain + 9
75% Belgium + 11
67% France + 19
59% Italy +4

Question asked was along the lines of "Is it a good thing that your country belongs to the EU?"

Second figure is change in percentage points since last survey (date varies by country)

Full report : https://jean-jaures.org/sites/default/files/notebrexit.pdf (in French) - see pages 6 to 9

[Dutch Uncle]

Very interesting that Muttley, many thanks. A bit of closing ranks methinks, possibly led by European politicians' pronouncements on Brexit and the EU.