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Author Topic: Just a bit of turbulence...  (Read 1878 times)

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BillyStubbsTears

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Just a bit of turbulence...
« on July 22, 2016, 10:15:03 am by BillyStubbsTears »
I think that was what the Brexiters predicted wasn't it?

Aye, well...

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-36864273



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selby

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Re: Just a bit of turbulence...
« Reply #1 on July 22, 2016, 11:32:00 am by selby »
Billy the data may be correct, but was collected immediatly after the result was announced,therefore may be a slight over reaction.
   Employment figures collected at a later date showed unemployment down, no doubt the big players and banks will be coining it in at the moment.
    In the 70s and 80s, when currencies were in turmiol, bank shares were always down untill the quartely figures came out.
    Then everyone realised who made the big bucks from everyone elses misery.
     Talking to a French banker last week, I was surprised at his take on Breksit.
     He thaught that the first two years would be hard, but that Europe was on a downward spiral ,and we would be better out in the long run.

BillyStubbsTears

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Re: Just a bit of turbulence...
« Reply #2 on July 22, 2016, 11:52:35 am by BillyStubbsTears »
Selby

Not sure what you mean by "immediately after the vote". The data were collected between 12-21 July. That's 3-4 weeks after the vote and long enough for businesses to have got over the initial shock.

As for your banker, aye; but that's just a single anecdotal bit of evidence. I'd contrast that with the overwhelming opinion from economists that there will be a short, medium and long term hit to our economy from Brexit.

The short-term one is already rolling out according to plan, looking at those Markit figures. And I've yet to see ANY sensible plan for how precisely we're supposed to end up better off in the long run, beyond vague hand-waving and it'll be alright-ism.

selby

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Re: Just a bit of turbulence...
« Reply #3 on July 22, 2016, 11:55:42 am by selby »
Billy,dont ever forget that money talks.
   This  Brexit will be manipulated to favour the big boys,whatever that is.
   My take is that we will fudge it to apease the outers,but will be mostly still  in with both sides happy to cherry pick what they want.
    The man in the street will do well to be any better off,thats the way of the world.
    Just my view on things mind.

BillyStubbsTears

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Re: Just a bit of turbulence...
« Reply #4 on July 22, 2016, 12:05:27 pm by BillyStubbsTears »
Selby
I'm with you. But there are big macroeconomic issues here.

If we lose a cumulative 3-4% off GDP between now and 2020, which is about what the consensus is amongst economists, that'll be £60-80bn lost to us as a nation, however we carve it up.

selby

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Re: Just a bit of turbulence...
« Reply #5 on July 22, 2016, 12:11:51 pm by selby »
Billy I was just repeating a statement on radio 5 this morning,and I agree with your point of view, having voted to remain.
    But it just might be the kick up the arse the country needs to get going again.If we dont respond it will go tits up,but only the working man will pay the price.

Nudga

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Re: Just a bit of turbulence...
« Reply #6 on July 22, 2016, 12:14:55 pm by Nudga »
I posted that in the months leading up to the Brexit vote that my work load dropped off alarmingly.
These last two weeks (in the height of my annual quiet period) I have filled my diary until the third week in September with some really big jobs.
Any other self employed people finding this?
I don't know if my circumstances are related in anyway, just offering real time experience.

Bentley Bullet

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Re: Just a bit of turbulence...
« Reply #7 on July 22, 2016, 12:33:21 pm by Bentley Bullet »
One of my pensions lump sum has increased by 20%. Likewise with two friends of mine, one of who has had an increase of 25%. 

Sammy Chung was King

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Re: Just a bit of turbulence...
« Reply #8 on July 23, 2016, 12:08:39 am by Sammy Chung was King »
Some of the government, want it to be seen, to be failing, in my opinion. This will allow them to water down what brexit is supposed to mean, they will appease the leavers on one hand saying 'leave means leave', while doing the exact opposite in negotiations.
That's what you will get from an unelected prime minister, and a government that lied to get in, and though she speaks well what she will do, it will be more of the same, but not as open as the previous leader.

Colemans Left Hook

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Re: Just a bit of turbulence...
« Reply #9 on July 23, 2016, 02:46:55 pm by Colemans Left Hook »
One of my pensions lump sum has increased by 20%. Likewise with two friends of mine, one of who has had an increase of 25%.
pure currency gains

I've had this before with a  far east fund the performance was stagnant but the gain in the yen from the funds point of view delivered the bacon

those in commercial property must be down more than 20% and you are locked in at the moment whilst the freeholds of certain central London buildings like the old coutts building in the strand is sold in a fire sale -- to counterbalance this foreigners have the exchange rate in their favour


 

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