Interesting insight into Brexit

[Sprotyrover]

I'll presume that Sproty will think you don't know what you're talking about too..!

Do you mind not mentioning me when you are trying to Patronise another posters views...thanks

[aidanstu]

I'll presume that Sproty will think you don't know what you're talking about too..!

Do you mind not mentioning me when you are trying to Patronise another posters views...thanks

Maybe I have missed something but I’m not sure he was trying to patronise me, I felt it was aimed at you.

I think that the facts I presented in terms of the national debt of the U.K. and other eu countries speaks volumes for the lack of success the eu has achieved financially. The facts about the debt, lack of industry and recesssions are indisputable.

There were very good arguments for coming out of the eu that the press have never put across.

It is also worth mentioning that in 1973 the vote was to go in to the eu, not about entering a trade agreement.

[Glyn_Wigley]

No, I wasn't patronising you at all. I was going to see what he would say because either he believes what he says and thinks you don't know anything along with everybody else, (which really is patronising) and I was absolutely right in what I posted so I don't know what he's complaining about - or he doesn't even believe what he says himself.

One little point, the vote was in 1975 not 1973, and was about remaining in the EEC, not the EU.

[SydneyRover]

Sprotty You get challenged because the "factoids" that you state are rarely if ever backed up by citations, they are just thought bubbles or something you have heard someone else say that was also made up also. It's this type of unsubstantiated garbage that put Britain in this position in the first place.

[BillyStubbsTears]

I personally find it interesting that people use an economic argument for staying within the EU.

Firstly the two richest countries in Europe are both outside of the EU (Norway and Switzerland), uk industry has been decimated and the national debt within the UK has dramatically increased since 1973.

There have only been 12 recessions since 1880, 8 have occurred since 1973 when we entered the EU.

This is true for most countries within the EU, as below, so please can somebody explain how the EU has benefited anybody financially?

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/0/european-debt-crisis-not-just-greece-drowning-debt/

I personally see a no deal benefiting Britian as it will lead to an increase in industry and the cheap gbp will encourage the export market.

Aidanstu

Difficult to know where to start with that but here’s an attempt.

1) There haven’t been 8 recessions in the UK since we joined the EEC/EU. There have been 5. None of them were in any way connected to our membership.

1973/74. Cause: A combination of the OPEC oil price hike, coming down off the Barber Boom and the Miners’ strike.

1975. A very brief second dip after the 73/74 recession.

1980/81. Cuts in Govt spending and huge increases in interest rates in the UK and USA in a deliberate attempt to squash inflation.

1990/91. US credit house crash combined with coming down from the madly overheating economy of 1988/89.

2008/09. The Global (mainly American) financial crash.


2) There were three Depressions in the earlier time period you highlighted, which caused economic carnage that you could not begin to imagine (1870-95, 1919-22 and 1930-33).

3) Norway is fantastically wealthy because for the past 40 years it has had as much oil as us, but it has a population smaller than Yorkshire. And they didn’t fritter the oil money away on tax cuts which fuelled a series of housing bubbles like we did. But even Norway has a strong trading deal with the EU and is effectively in the Single Market.

4) Switzerland spent well over a decade negotiating a deep and wide set of agreements with the EU on everything from trade to scientific research.

5) Both Norway and Switzerland accept free movement of people and are in the Schengen group.

6) The overwhelming majority of economists and business leaders think a no deal exit will be catastrophic for our economy, both short term and long term.

7) Our Govt debt has absolutely nothing to do with membership of the EU. There were actually rules imposed on EU states limiting Govt deficits. (They we’re stupid and fortunately they were ignored when the Great Financial Crash occurred.)

[aidanstu]

I personally find it interesting that people use an economic argument for staying within the EU.

Firstly the two richest countries in Europe are both outside of the EU (Norway and Switzerland), uk industry has been decimated and the national debt within the UK has dramatically increased since 1973.

There have only been 12 recessions since 1880, 8 have occurred since 1973 when we entered the EU.

This is true for most countries within the EU, as below, so please can somebody explain how the EU has benefited anybody financially?

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/0/european-debt-crisis-not-just-greece-drowning-debt/

I personally see a no deal benefiting Britian as it will lead to an increase in industry and the cheap gbp will encourage the export market.

Aidanstu

Difficult to know where to start with that but here’s an attempt.

1) There haven’t been 8 recessions in the UK since we joined the EEC/EU. There have been 5. None of them were in any way connected to our membership.

1973/74. Cause: A combination of the OPEC oil price hike, coming down off the Barber Boom and the Miners’ strike.

1975. A very brief second dip after the 73/74 recession.

1980/81. Cuts in Govt spending and huge increases in interest rates in the UK and USA in a deliberate attempt to squash inflation.

1990/91. US credit house crash combined with coming down from the madly overheating economy of 1988/89.

2008/09. The Global (mainly American) financial crash.


2) There were three Depressions in the earlier time period you highlighted, which caused economic carnage that you could not begin to imagine (1870-95, 1919-22 and 1930-33).

3) Norway is fantastically wealthy because for the past 40 years it has had as much oil as us, but it has a population smaller than Yorkshire. And they didn’t fritter the oil money away on tax cuts which fuelled a series of housing bubbles like we did. But even Norway has a strong trading deal with the EU and is effectively in the Single Market.

4) Switzerland spent well over a decade negotiating a deep and wide set of agreements with the EU on everything from trade to scientific research.

5) Both Norway and Switzerland accept free movement of people and are in the Schengen group.

6) The overwhelming majority of economists and business leaders think a no deal exit will be catastrophic for our economy, both short term and long term.

7) Our Govt debt has absolutely nothing to do with membership of the EU. There were actually rules imposed on EU states limiting Govt deficits. (They we’re stupid and fortunately they were ignored when the Great Financial Crash occurred.)

Thanks for the response. The 08/09 recession you refer to was actually a triple dip so I guess how you dress it up.

The recession in the early 1980’s was in part caused by the cheap imports and weakened pound so I’m not sure how you can say membership of the eu has nothing to do with national debt. I’m not arguing it is the sole cause but it clearly has an effect when the U.K. is a net contributor. I’m sure Greece would argue that the “bail out” France and Germany have them has contributed significantly to their national debt problems.

[Sprotyrover]

Sprotty You get challenged because the "factoids" that you state are rarely if ever backed up by citations, they are just thought bubbles or something you have heard someone else say that was also made up also. It's this type of unsubstantiated garbage that put Britain in this position in the first place.

Sydney are you the gobshite programme seller if so desist from posting in this discussion you did a runner abandoning the uk good luck , but you do not have a say.

[hoolahoop]

I personally find it interesting that people use an economic argument for staying within the EU.

Firstly the two richest countries in Europe are both outside of the EU (Norway and Switzerland), uk industry has been decimated and the national debt within the UK has dramatically increased since 1973.

There have only been 12 recessions since 1880, 8 have occurred since 1973 when we entered the EU.

This is true for most countries within the EU, as below, so please can somebody explain how the EU has benefited anybody

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/0/european-debt-crisis-not-just-greece-drowning-debt/

I personally see a no deal benefiting Britian as it will lead to an increase in industry and the cheap gbp will encourage the export market.

These 2 apparently richest countries have they chosen to toss the benefits of the CU & SM to one side ,  If not why not ?
Remind me how exactly the EU de- industrialised or rather caused the downturn in our heavy industries ?
I'm also intrigued how and why you think the UK economy grew to be the 6th largest economy in the world from those heady days when we had to get bale-outs from the IMF and were known as " the sick man of Europe " .

Did you also attend the same Comp as Sprotty ?

[hoolahoop]

None of those post 1970s recessions were caused by actions or policies directly attributable to  the EU. I suggest you check your facts more closely . Nice try .

[SydneyRover]

Sprotty You get challenged because the "factoids" that you state are rarely if ever backed up by citations, they are just thought bubbles or something you have heard someone else say that was also made up also. It's this type of unsubstantiated garbage that put Britain in this position in the first place.

Sydney are you the gobshite programme seller if so desist from posting in this discussion you did a runner abandoning the uk good luck , but you do not have a say.

More uncorroborated factoids.

[hoolahoop]

The future is an unknown, How can I evidence the future, likewise all of the Nay Sayers on here do the same, people generally don't like change, that's one lesson I have learnt,I have a feeling that the same people posting to remain will be against any change in their workplace.
By the way when have I asked any body on here to produce their professional qualifications?
Sydney rover are you the gobby programme seller who used to come up into the South stand telling fish wives tales? If so you don't even have a say on here you broadcast quite openly that the country had gone to the Dogs and you were off to OZ.

As the Scots would say " it wouldn't be a case of Nay Sayers , more a case of ........Nay Money "

[SydneyRover]

Here are a couple of things backed up by facts:

http://www.independent.co.uk/sport/football/transfers/manchester-city-transfer-news-kevin-de-bruyne-new-contract-deal-a8120681.html

This I also put on the other thread about Wrexit.

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/business/news/imf-christine-lagarde-brexit-uk-economy-assessment-forecasts-eu-referendum-forecasts-a8119886.html

[hoolahoop]

Sprotty You get challenged because the "factoids" that you state are rarely if ever backed up by citations, they are just thought bubbles or something you have heard someone else say that was also made up also. It's this type of unsubstantiated garbage that put Britain in this position in the first place.

Agreed these are called alternative facts , I'm sure Sprotty is being sincere when he quotes them and of course stores great faith in them.

However they aren't facts therefore it's not worth anyone getting involved in refuting them. He and others were led to believe much of the nonsense peddled out by Eurosceptic newspapers and of course the very expertly run Leave campaign who disseminated much of this nonsense for years.

Unfortunately we have very few institutions who can be relied upon to separate fact from fiction . That is why " expert " opinion had to be denounced by that campaign before , during and after the  Truth is it has been poorly governed for the last century. The FPTP  system whereby governments of one hue or the other spend half their time " unpicking " the programmes of the other. Government after government have wasted fortunes doing this and that has had NOTHING to do with the EU .

Health, Education, Housing, Social Policy, Policing, Justice, Defence, Foreign and Home Offices are all in a mess.  I don't pretend that I  have any answers but leaving the EU imo only exasperates the problems further as the economy that feeds ALL of those areas is damaged completely . Personally I doubt even we are that stupid and will align wherever possible to keep the Leavers happy and the whole population from saying " Enough ! "
Immigration is not THE problem as we have always coped with similar levels of immigration in the past . Besides most if not immigration has been proven to be beneficial to the economy. Yes they paid their Tax and National Insurance into the system as we all did so don't blame the lack of foresight on them because they have been paying in for up to 40 years - many leaving as healthily as they arrived and home to retire elsewhere in many cases and then becoming a burden on those societies and not here.

Once they have gone we will be in the shite big-time. Evidence is they are going and fewer are now even entertaining coming here.

[BillyStubbsTears]

I personally find it interesting that people use an economic argument for staying within the EU.

Firstly the two richest countries in Europe are both outside of the EU (Norway and Switzerland), uk industry has been decimated and the national debt within the UK has dramatically increased since 1973.

There have only been 12 recessions since 1880, 8 have occurred since 1973 when we entered the EU.

This is true for most countries within the EU, as below, so please can somebody explain how the EU has benefited anybody financially?

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/0/european-debt-crisis-not-just-greece-drowning-debt/

I personally see a no deal benefiting Britian as it will lead to an increase in industry and the cheap gbp will encourage the export market.

Aidanstu

Difficult to know where to start with that but here’s an attempt.

1) There haven’t been 8 recessions in the UK since we joined the EEC/EU. There have been 5. None of them were in any way connected to our membership.

1973/74. Cause: A combination of the OPEC oil price hike, coming down off the Barber Boom and the Miners’ strike.

1975. A very brief second dip after the 73/74 recession.

1980/81. Cuts in Govt spending and huge increases in interest rates in the UK and USA in a deliberate attempt to squash inflation.

1990/91. US credit house crash combined with coming down from the madly overheating economy of 1988/89.

2008/09. The Global (mainly American) financial crash.


2) There were three Depressions in the earlier time period you highlighted, which caused economic carnage that you could not begin to imagine (1870-95, 1919-22 and 1930-33).

3) Norway is fantastically wealthy because for the past 40 years it has had as much oil as us, but it has a population smaller than Yorkshire. And they didn’t fritter the oil money away on tax cuts which fuelled a series of housing bubbles like we did. But even Norway has a strong trading deal with the EU and is effectively in the Single Market.

4) Switzerland spent well over a decade negotiating a deep and wide set of agreements with the EU on everything from trade to scientific research.

5) Both Norway and Switzerland accept free movement of people and are in the Schengen group.

6) The overwhelming majority of economists and business leaders think a no deal exit will be catastrophic for our economy, both short term and long term.

7) Our Govt debt has absolutely nothing to do with membership of the EU. There were actually rules imposed on EU states limiting Govt deficits. (They we’re stupid and fortunately they were ignored when the Great Financial Crash occurred.)

Thanks for the response. The 08/09 recession you refer to was actually a triple dip so I guess how you dress it up.

The recession in the early 1980’s was in part caused by the cheap imports and weakened pound so I’m not sure how you can say membership of the eu has nothing to do with national debt. I’m not arguing it is the sole cause but it clearly has an effect when the U.K. is a net contributor. I’m sure Greece would argue that the “bail out” France and Germany have them has contributed significantly to their national debt problems.

Aidanstu

I’m sorry but you are simply wrong on every point.

1) The 08/09 recession was not a triple dip recession. True, we had a recovery which staggered slowly but we didn’t dip back into recession. And in any case, that was down to the decisions of our own Govt to slash Govt spending whilst the private sector was still struggling. Nothing to do with the EU.

2) The recession of 80/81 was nothing whatsoever to do with cheap imports from the EU. It WAS partially due to a weak pound, but that wasn’t connected to our membership of the EU.

The root cause of the 80/81 recession is simple and uncontested. Inflation had been rising for 20 years or so. By the 1970s we had a feedback loop. High inflation led to strikes for high wages to match. High wages pushed up costs and led to higher inflation. Thatcher attempted to smash this loop by cutting Govt spending and massively increasing interest rates. That deliberately weakened the economy so that employers couldn’t pay higher wages (and because unemployment rocketed, the unions were in a weaker position to press for higher wages). Nothing whatsoever to do with the EU. It actually mirrored a very similar policy in the USA.

3) The strength of the pound and cost of imports has nothing at all to do with national debt.

4) Greece’s situation was certainly to do with the mistake in joining the Euro which gave them a strong currency and access to cheap credit. That has nothing whatsoever to do with our membership of the EU.

[selby]

   The vote result in Catalonia for being an independent state from Spain will send a shock through the powers that be in Brussels.
  The elite  in the E.U. and the Spanish government have thrown everything at this, and thought they would come out  the victors with a vote to remain part of mainstream Spain.
   Italy next anyone?

[SydneyRover]

   The vote result in Catalonia for being an independent state from Spain will send a shock through the powers that be in Brussels.
  The elite  in the E.U. and the Spanish government have thrown everything at this, and thought they would come out  the victors with a vote to remain part of mainstream Spain.
   Italy next anyone?

They may want independence from Spain but they will still be part of Europe.

[The Red Baron]

   The vote result in Catalonia for being an independent state from Spain will send a shock through the powers that be in Brussels.
  The elite  in the E.U. and the Spanish government have thrown everything at this, and thought they would come out  the victors with a vote to remain part of mainstream Spain.
   Italy next anyone?

They may want independence from Spain but they will still be part of Europe.

If they did gain full independence from Spain Catalonia would have to apply for membership of the EU.

[The Red Baron]

   The vote result in Catalonia for being an independent state from Spain will send a shock through the powers that be in Brussels.
  The elite  in the E.U. and the Spanish government have thrown everything at this, and thought they would come out  the victors with a vote to remain part of mainstream Spain.
   Italy next anyone?

Can't see it being Italy, but the Polish and Hungarian governments are increasingly at loggerheads with the EU. Watch this space, as they say.

[Donnywolf]

   The vote result in Catalonia for being an independent state from Spain will send a shock through the powers that be in Brussels.
  The elite  in the E.U. and the Spanish government have thrown everything at this, and thought they would come out  the victors with a vote to remain part of mainstream Spain.
   Italy next anyone?

They may want independence from Spain but they will still be part of Europe.

If they did gain full independence from Spain Catalonia would have to apply for membership of the EU.

I have yet to see any mention of the rest of Catalonia - the French bit of it.

Surely those people would then crave to be back living in their true homeland.

Catalans Dragons based in Perpignan says it all really

[hoolahoop]

   The vote result in Catalonia for being an independent state from Spain will send a shock through the powers that be in Brussels.
  The elite  in the E.U. and the Spanish government have thrown everything at this, and thought they would come out  the victors with a vote to remain part of mainstream Spain.
   Italy next anyone?

What have the EU thrown at this please put a link to this help or are you just imagining it  ?

[BillyStubbsTears]

   The vote result in Catalonia for being an independent state from Spain will send a shock through the powers that be in Brussels.
  The elite  in the E.U. and the Spanish government have thrown everything at this, and thought they would come out  the victors with a vote to remain part of mainstream Spain.
   Italy next anyone?

Can't see it being Italy, but the Polish and Hungarian governments are increasingly at loggerheads with the EU. Watch this space, as they say.

That's because both are seriously undermining democratic norms in their country. Orban in Hungary in particular is a would-be fascist dictator (and I don't use that term lightly). If the EU can be criticised at all in those cases, it's for not acting quickly and strongly enough.

[BillyStubbsTears]

I personally find it interesting that people use an economic argument for staying within the EU.

Firstly the two richest countries in Europe are both outside of the EU (Norway and Switzerland), uk industry has been decimated and the national debt within the UK has dramatically increased since 1973.

There have only been 12 recessions since 1880, 8 have occurred since 1973 when we entered the EU.

This is true for most countries within the EU, as below, so please can somebody explain how the EU has benefited anybody financially?

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/0/european-debt-crisis-not-just-greece-drowning-debt/

I personally see a no deal benefiting Britian as it will lead to an increase in industry and the cheap gbp will encourage the export market.

Something I missed pointing out earlier.

I assume you don't know that, between us joining the EU in 1973 and the Brexit vote, our economy increased 15.6 fold. The Swiss economy over the same period increased 14 fold. So, despite us being the Sick Man of Europe in the 1960s and early 70s, and despite Switzerland being put forward as a model economy outside the EU, we had stronger economic growth for 40 years than they did. Until we decided to commit economic suicide 18 months ago...

In the 13 years before we joined the EEC (that's all the data I have), our economy grew by 2.7 fold and the Swiss economy grew 5 fold.

Sounds like an open and shut case to me. For a long time before we joined the EEC/EU, or economy did much worse than the Swiss. Between joining the EU and the Brexit vote, our economy did marginally better than the Swiss.