Government defeat

[hoolahoop]

I was surprised  to see democracy at last swing into action but more surprised that I am the first to comment on it . Sovereignty back at last with Parliament and not the Government's Front Bench where it has upto ūnow been driven by 40 or so rabid Brexitters and the Tory Press.

[Glyn_Wigley]

If May and her omnishambles slink back with a really shit deal, I bet those who are calling the rebels 'traitors' now will be bloody grateful that Parliament will have their say on it.

[The Red Baron]

While I think on balance it's a good thing that Parliament will vote on the final deal, I can see it causing major problems if they reject it. What happens then? UK ministers will be mandated to renegotiate, but will the EU wish to do so? Also will it be clear which parts of the deal Parliament wishes to be renegotiated?

Actually it makes the prospect of "No Deal" all the more likely.

[hoolahoop]

While I think on balance it's a good thing that Parliament will vote on the final deal, I can see it causing major problems if they reject it. What happens then? UK ministers will be mandated to renegotiate, but will the EU wish to do so? Also will it be clear which parts of the deal Parliament wishes to be renegotiated?

Actually it makes the prospect of "No Deal" all the more likely.

If they had rejected the amendment and a year down the line the Government came back with a deal keeping us inside both the CU & SM with an annual payment for Euratom, Drugs Agency etc etc.  Would the Brexiters be happy with a vote then ? - I'm absolutely sure they would !

This amendment is sensible, gives breathing space and allows OUR  Parliament to have the same rights to challenge as the other 27 have with Barniers negotiation team .

Where did sovereignty go all of a sudden . I see the Daily Mail is up to its old tricks in much the same way as it behaved with our High and Supreme Court judges . They should be hauled in front of a judge in view of the behaviour they could incite that brought about the death of Jo Cox , the villification of Gina Miller , Diane Abbot et al - its disgraceful frankly .

[wilts rover]

I agree with the first part of your post TRB but disagree with the second part. What the vote last night did was make 'No Deal' all but impossible.

Parliament now gets the final say on any deal. Therefore there is no point in Mrs May taking any deal to Parliament that she knows wont get through Parliament. So in order to know what Parliament wants to see in the deal - she has to discuss and negotiate with it before she puts it to Brussels.

So although that vote was technically on the details of the final deal - it is actually on who gets to draft up the British terms for that deal and what sort of deal it is.

If we say that staying in is (currently) off the table there are 3 possible types of deal she can go for:

1.No deal - favoured only by about 30 or 40 hard Brexiteers
2.Full alignment with the single market & customs union in an EFTA, Norway, Switzerland style deal - the policy of the Labour Party and those 'soft' Tories who voted against the government last night
3.A limited Canada style free trade agreement - the government's currently stated policy

So I think rather than 'no deal', last night's vote actually makes a 'staying in in all but name' more likely - if Mrs May wants a deal she can get through Parliament.

It also makes next weeks vote even more interesting, especially for Hoola. At the moment we have told the EU we are leaving in March 2019 but there is nothing in British law to say that. Hence why the government & Brexiteers want the date & time of leaving in the Withdrawal Act. If Parliament reject that - then we haven't left until this deal with EU is completed!

[The Red Baron]

Actually, Wilts your point about setting the date in stone is important. If the Government is defeated, or more likely backs down, then our leaving date does become more flexible, at least from our side.

It's unclear how the EU will react to things dragging on. I suppose it depends whether they want us in, out or half in and half out.

[hoolahoop]

I agree with the first part of your post TRB but disagree with the second part. What the vote last night did was make 'No Deal' all but impossible.

Parliament now gets the final say on any deal. Therefore there is no point in Mrs May taking any deal to Parliament that she knows wont get through Parliament. So in order to know what Parliament wants to see in the deal - she has to discuss and negotiate with it before she puts it to Brussels.

So although that vote was technically on the details of the final deal - it is actually on who gets to draft up the British terms for that deal and what sort of deal it is.

If we say that staying in is (currently) off the table there are 3 possible types of deal she can go for:

1.No deal - favoured only by about 30 or 40 hard Brexiteers
2.Full alignment with the single market & customs union in an EFTA, Norway, Switzerland style deal - the policy of the Labour Party and those 'soft' Tories who voted against the government last night
3.A limited Canada style free trade agreement - the government's currently stated policy

So I think rather than 'no deal', last night's vote actually makes a 'staying in in all but name' more likely - if Mrs May wants a deal she can get through Parliament.

It also makes next weeks vote even more interesting, especially for Hoola. At the moment we have told the EU we are leaving in March 2019 but there is nothing in British law to say that. Hence why the government & Brexiteers want the date & time of leaving in the Withdrawal Act. If Parliament reject that - then we haven't left until this deal with EU is completed!

Thank you Wilts but I am retiring soon so hope to be Brexiting as soon as my partner catches me up a bit ( she's younger ). I will cash in along with her and move to Europe ; I have no intention of remaining here unless my health deteriorates further. I suppose it's easier for us we have no living parents to worry about, a daughter at the University of Copenhagen next  year bar any mishap with results/ application. Both She and her mates at uni are all looking to move to Europe taking their skills with them .

They want none of this .

[hoolahoop]

Actually, Wilts your point about setting the date in stone is important. If the Government is defeated, or more likely backs down, then our leaving date does become more flexible, at least from our side.

It's unclear how the EU will react to things dragging on. I suppose it depends whether they want us in, out or half in and half out.

I think they will want us half in but Brexiters won't - their futures are with Trump as I see it.

[albie]

I agree with the assessment from Wilts, but with one further consideration......the possibility that this fragile government will collapse in the meantime.

What changes would follow from an early election remains to be seen. Maybot is clinging on with the support of the DUP, and despite wide divisions in her own party, all of which could implode at any time.

[Glyn_Wigley]

I agree with the assessment from Wilts, but with one further consideration......the possibility that this fragile government will collapse in the meantime.

What changes would follow from an early election remains to be seen. Maybot is clinging on with the support of the DUP, and despite wide divisions in her own party, all of which could implode at any time.

In which case it'll be a good safeguard against whatever stripe of government ends up concluding the negotiations.

[The Red Baron]

I agree with the assessment from Wilts, but with one further consideration......the possibility that this fragile government will collapse in the meantime.

What changes would follow from an early election remains to be seen. Maybot is clinging on with the support of the DUP, and despite wide divisions in her own party, all of which could implode at any time.

I agree Albie, in fact one bookmaker was offering 5/6 that May would go as PM during 2018.

If Parliament rejected May's deal I'm pretty sure she would feel compelled to resign. That could precipitate a General Election. And if she comes back with what the Tory Brexiteers consider a bad deal she might be removed anyway.

It did strike me that Juncker and Tusk were trying hard to praise May last week. Whatever they think of her they would probably prefer not to have to deal with another PM.

[hoolahoop]

I agree with the assessment from Wilts, but with one further consideration......the possibility that this fragile government will collapse in the meantime.

What changes would follow from an early election remains to be seen. Maybot is clinging on with the support of the DUP, and despite wide divisions in her own party, all of which could implode at any time.

I agree Albie, in fact one bookmaker was offering 5/6 that May would go as PM during 2018.

If Parliament rejected May's deal I'm pretty sure she would feel compelled to resign. That could precipitate a General Election. And if she comes back with what the Tory Brexiteers consider a bad deal she might be removed anyway.

It did strike me that Juncker and Tusk were trying hard to praise May last week. Whatever they think of her they would probably prefer not to have to deal with another PM.

I think you're right , it would be extremely difficult for them to restart negotiations without that fool Davis in front of them.
A new regime would probably have a different team " fronting it " - it would be almost impossible for negotiations to begin . This is definitely a blow to May and an important part of what she saw as the process going unhindered, that is why they fought tooth and nail to oppose Amendment 7.

Attempts to alter it at Report stage is unlikely to go down well either with either the HofC or Lords - she is stuffed

[BillyStubbsTears]

It did strike me that Juncker and Tusk were trying hard to praise May last week. Whatever they think of her they would probably prefer not to have to deal with another PM.

Well aye. They are both Centre-Right politicians. They inevitably prefer one of their own in No10. Even a quite magnificently incompetent one.

[The Red Baron]

It did strike me that Juncker and Tusk were trying hard to praise May last week. Whatever they think of her they would probably prefer not to have to deal with another PM.

Well aye. They are both Centre-Right politicians. They inevitably prefer one of their own in No10. Even a quite magnificently incompetent one.

As the alternatives are either a right wing Brexiteer (Johnson, Gove, Davis) or a left wing Brexiteer who won't come out of the closet  (Corbyn) you can also see why they might prefer to deal with May.

[BillyStubbsTears]

There’s no right wing Brexiteer alternative. Because they could never carry a vote in the Commons. And there is little prospect of a Hard Brexit Tory party winning an Election.

As for Labour, the Party might well be led by a man who could hardly get his kecks on quickly enough to rush out in front of the cameras to declare that “Article 50 must be invoked immediately” at 7am the day after the Brexit vote, but the party has pretty much ignored his lead and is being steered by Keir Starmer.

I suspect there’d be a far more sensible approach to the divorce if Labour were in power and negotiating.

[hoolahoop]

There’s no right wing Brexiteer alternative. Because they could never carry a vote in the Commons. And there is little prospect of a Hard Brexit Tory party winning an Election.

As for Labour, the Party might well be led by a man who could hardly get his kecks on quickly enough to rush out in front of the cameras to declare that “Article 50 must be invoked immediately” at 7am the day after the Brexit vote, but the party has pretty much ignored his lead and is being steered by Keir Starmer.

I suspect there’d be a far more sensible approach to the divorce if Labour were in power and negotiating.

Agree with you Billy , Starmer is quite clearly running the show and that suits Corbyn and Mc Donnell down to the ground for now . Have to say here that Pennycock seems a very able member of the team too.

The longer it is before Corbyn is forced to break cover the better , he is quite clearly easily rattled in the Chamber and better left to the simple stuff for now .
It is absolutely fascinating how this will unfold . Soon we will have that vision.....no hiding places from here on in
 

[redwine]

Read your last sentence and all I can think about is methadone.

[Not Now Kato]

Read your last sentence and all I can think about is methadone.

I wonder if the caller in this clip was on something similar....
 
http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/home-news/brexit-supporter-vote-leave-eu-lack-white-faces-hospital-james-obrien-lbc-northwick-park-a8099561.html
 
or maybe just racist.  Sadly, I know a few people who think the same as that caller, and voted leave because of it.   

[Donny Dub]

Did any one watch BBC Question Time from Barnsley last night?  There’s a man on there pointing out that in the referendum he was asked ‘remain’ or ‘leave’ and not a supplementary leave question, should that be hard or a soft leave.  He made a strong issue of his frustration of the poor leave negotiating and the weak leadership you’re showing the rest of us.

[BillyStubbsTears]

DD

And there’s the issue. The referendum question was idiotic.

As I’ve said before, it was like having a vote on whether to go on holiday or not. If the vote is to go on holiday, that’s barely scratched the surface of the real decision. There are dozens, hundreds, thousands, millions of possible holidays. Just like there are a huge number of different Brexits.

“Brexit” isn’t a cast iron thing, just like “holiday” isn’t a cast iron thing. Anyone who complains “why haven’t we left”, frankly hasn’t got a clue about the issue. Just like anyone who says “Brexit means Brexit” should be strung up from a lamppost for insulting the public’s intelligence. “Brexit” means absolutely nothing whatsoever, just like “holiday” means nothing.

[Glyn_Wigley]

Read your last sentence and all I can think about is methadone.

I wonder if the caller in this clip was on something similar....
 
http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/home-news/brexit-supporter-vote-leave-eu-lack-white-faces-hospital-james-obrien-lbc-northwick-park-a8099561.html
 
or maybe just racist.  Sadly, I know a few people who think the same as that caller, and voted leave because of it.   

Don't you just love it when someone insists they're not racist even when they come out with stuff like that?

[Donny Dub]

On the contrary BST i think like the man from Barnsley said last night the vote was clearly OUT of Europe or stay IN.  I didn’t vote but the main issues concerning people was to regain UK sovereignty and take control of immigration and that seemed simple enough but what’s happening now is the whole negotiation is being conducted by a political party, with a weak mandate, in which a majority would wish to remain in the single market.  They will ignore the wishes of the majority of the UK electorate at their very peril come the next GE.

[Glyn_Wigley]

On the contrary BST i think like the man from Barnsley said last night the vote was clearly OUT of Europe or stay IN.  I didn’t vote but the main issues concerning people was to regain UK sovereignty and take control of immigration and that seemed simple enough but what’s happening now is the whole negotiation is being conducted by a political party, with a weak mandate, in which a majority would wish to remain in the single market.  They will ignore the wishes of the majority of the UK electorate at their very peril come the next GE.

You don't know that nor does anybody else. Because the electorate wasn't asked that.

[The Red Baron]

On the contrary BST i think like the man from Barnsley said last night the vote was clearly OUT of Europe or stay IN.  I didn’t vote but the main issues concerning people was to regain UK sovereignty and take control of immigration and that seemed simple enough but what’s happening now is the whole negotiation is being conducted by a political party, with a weak mandate, in which a majority would wish to remain in the single market.  They will ignore the wishes of the majority of the UK electorate at their very peril come the next GE.

Certainly quite a number of Tory MPs would be comfortable with the UK staying in the Single Market. There is, of course, a small group that is very vocal about it. However, the Manifesto at the June GE was clear about leaving the SM and Customs Union. With each passing day it looks more likely that we will agree to stay in both. That won't feel much like Brexit to a lot of people who voted Leave. Therefore I foresee a lot of anger directed at politicians and the political process down the line.

Maybe one answer is a Second Referendum, although that would smack to Leave voters of having to vote until you get the result "they" want.

[hoolahoop]

Read your last sentence and all I can think about is methadone.

Changed don't want you running down to your dealer

[hoolahoop]

Read your last sentence and all I can think about is methadone.

I wonder if the caller in this clip was on something similar....
 
http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/home-news/brexit-supporter-vote-leave-eu-lack-white-faces-hospital-james-obrien-lbc-northwick-park-a8099561.html
 
or maybe just racist.  Sadly, I know a few people who think the same as that caller, and voted leave because of it.   

Sadly I have friends (?) who think the same.

Whilst I am writing this I have just had confirmation that my daughter has qualified for a year studying at the University of Copenhagen .......gunna be spending some time in the EU  next year, flat hunting and spending some money .

 So far 5 of them are confirmed for study abroad in Denmark under  the Erasmus + scheme. We risk limiting the prospects of future generations. Sorry I know that this isn't really relevant to the thread but wanted to tell someone - obviously not those friends (?)  because they will only say " why would she want to go there , they're all furriners oh and what will she be able to eat etc ? "

[Donny Dub]

Very good news your daughter qualified to study in Copenhagen Hoola but I must warn you it’s more expensive than Dublin!

[hoolahoop]

Very good news your daughter qualified to study in Copenhagen Hoola but I must warn you it’s more expensive than Dublin!

Thanks DD that's what I thought but fortunately have squirelled away money for this eventuality. She came back about 4 weeks ago and I always felt I was going to have to use money for this purpose. I'm trying to help her be as egrerious as possible and to keep an open- mind about the world. I never wanted her to think that the limits of her world should just be our beautiful island.

This year alone she has been to Ibiza, Copenhagen, Amsterdam, Budapest and toured the cities of Northern Italy.

Once my pension pot has gone it's gone but to a good cause and not to a council care home sometime in the future.

[Not Now Kato]

Congratulations to your Daughter, Hoola, you must be well pleased as indeed must she.  What a great opportunity not only to expand her education but to also experience and learn from other cultures.     
 
I have friends who voted 'leave' "for the benefit of their children and grandchildren". Ironic isn't it, that by doing so they are denying, or at least making difficult, such opportunities your daughter is able to enjoy.
 
I genuinely do wonder how they think leave will be of benefit to our younger generations.

[The Red Baron]

Actually, Wilts your point about setting the date in stone is important. If the Government is defeated, or more likely backs down, then our leaving date does become more flexible, at least from our side.

It's unclear how the EU will react to things dragging on. I suppose it depends whether they want us in, out or half in and half out.

It seems the Government has compromised on the exit date. 29th March 2019 remains in the Bill but can easily be changed. The Tory rebels seem to have accepted it.

Strikes me as a sensible compromise, but from the Government's point of view they avoid another damaging defeat.