NOT GOOD ENOUGH MR FERGUSON

[andysly]

Ok forgetting the 3 wins over Christmas it’s now 6  draws and a defeat - less than a point a game.
However those away games have brought very good points, Shrewsbury 2nd place, Scunny in play offs and Posh/Pompey pushing for top 6.
Home draws with Plymouth who are the form side in the division, and a decent Charlton team.
The one defeat coming when the defensive injury situation meant the result was almost inevitable.
The performance was poor on Saturday but for the most part Rovers have been decent in the other matches.
I remember saying after the 0-3 against Walsall that we needed to grind out a few 0-0s and become harder to beat.
We are now difficult to beat and looking at the late goals we’ve got in those draws the mentality has improved in that we don’t give up.
Next three games are very important but with the new players hopefully settling down we could pick up 5/7 points and be comfortably in top half by end of the month.

[BillyStubbsTears]

Yep. And that is the difference between this side and the 15/16 rabble.

Two years ago we were gutless and soft as shite. We were going through the motions in matches with no one putting in a shift and busting a gut. That is why we went down, because we rolled over meekly against some very poor opponents.

This year’s side has found some steel which I honestly didn’t think they had back in September. We’ve lost one match in 12 in the league and that was the culmination of losing all three Centre halves in 7 days. We’ve played four promotion contenders in the past 3 weeks and Charlton are the only ones to make us look second best. In that spell, we became one of only 4 teams this season to avoid defeat away at the side with the best home record in the division.

This side has flaws for sure but it also has somefight and determination. That’ll do me for this season.

[Filo]

Yep. And that is the difference between this side and the 15/16 rabble.

Two years ago we were gutless and soft as shite. We were going through the motions in matches with no one putting in a shift and busting a gut. That is why we went down, because we rolled over meekly against some very poor opponents.

This year’s side has found some steel which I honestly didn’t think they had back in September. We’ve lost one match in 12 in the league and that was the culmination of losing all three Centre halves in 7 days. We’ve played four promotion contenders in the past 3 weeks and Charlton are the only ones to make us look second best. In that spell, we became one of only 4 teams this season to avoid defeat away at the side with the best home record in the division.

This side has flaws for sure but it also has somefight and determination. That’ll do me for this season.

We were second best at Scunthorpe until the last 15-20 mins

[BillyStubbsTears]

Possibly Filo. In another match when we lost a key player early on and had to patch up the Defence.

Even then, Scunny only looked like scoring from bad mistakes by Lawlor. I thought we mostly kept them comfortably at bay which was some achievement given that we only had 1 fit Centre half after the first 20 mins.

[The Red Baron]

Here’s a simple argument why it’s unlikely (not impossible, but unlikely) that the team finishing 4th bottom will get 50 points as several people on here are suggesting.

To get 50 points, this is how many points per game the bottom 9 sides would need from now to the end of the season.

Bury 1.79
Rochdale 1.32
MK Dons 1.25
Oldham 1.21
Wimbledon 1.07
Blackpool 1.07
Northampton 1.00
Fleetwood 0.88
Walsall 0.81


So one of the bottom four would have to significantly improve on its season long form, AND Wimbledon, Blackpool and Northampton would have to maintain their season long form AND Fleetwood and Walsall would have to not have a slight dip.

Not impossible but very unlikely.

Last season 50 points was the bare minimum to stay up in League One. Interestingly in the Championship, where only three go down, Blackburn were relegated with 51 points.

50-53 will probably be the safety mark. Let's hope we achieve it with a game or two to spare.

We're on 39 now so three wins should be enough, given our capacity for drawing games. Fleetwood, Bury, AFC Wimbledon and Oxford at home are the games we need to be targeting. Best chances of away wins are Blackpool, MK Dons and Oldham. A draw tomorrow and a win on Saturday would be real steps in the right direction and the Rotherham game can be treated as a bit of a freebie.

[BillyStubbsTears]

TRB

Last season is irrelevant.

The safety target varies year in year from 40-54 points. The fact that it was 50 last year has no relevance in what the target will be this year.

I would give you very, very long odds on 53 points being needed to stay up. That would require four of five from MK Dons, Oldham, Wimbledon, Blackpool and Northampton to significantly improve on their season long form. And Fleetwood and Walsall not to have a dip in form. It’s not impossible but it’s stretching the boundaries.

This conversation sounds familiar from previous years.

[The Red Baron]

It is a shame that the old Statto site has died a death because it enabled you to look at the points spreads at this stage of previous seasons.

I agree that a particular previous season has no impact on the current one, but it is interesting to get an idea of what the table looked like after x-number of games.

I'll guarantee two things though based on previous experience: at least one team that is currently in big trouble will stay up with a bit to spare. And one club currently looking safe (and probably still targeting the play-offs) will be sweating on the final day.

EDIT. Last season in League One the bottom four teams after 32 games were the four teams that went down. I was thinking to the two previous seasons (2014-15 and 2015-16).

[BillyStubbsTears]

TRB

Yes, sometimes (certainly not guaranteed) a side in trouble pulls itself out. But as you say, equally often a side that is relatively comfortable, 12-16 games out falls apart. (Unfortunately of course, that was us in 13/14 and 15/16.)

My point about 53 being the target is that it requires four sides currently in the bottom 7 to significantly up their form and no side above that to fall apart. That’s highly unlikely.

[IDM]

How often do you see a team do really well one season, when the year before they were mediocre with the same manager and mostly the same squad?

A set of decent players can have bad days, individually or as a team.

How do you measure confidence vs form?  Yes managers make mistakes too with formation etc but the players still have to perform.

This is why these players are in league 1, the inconsistency you get.  Unlikely as it seems, we could win 10 more games this season, equally we could win 2.

Does this mean the manager isn't good enough, or just a reflection of where we are?

At least on a day when it seems like everyone says we were crap, we didn't lose.

A couple of wins this month and everything will appear rosy again.

As for someone's comment about never wanting to be in the 4th division again, I would rather we weren't, but we may well have bad times again as well as good.  It's a cliche but that's football at this level.

[dickos1]

DICKOS I admire your loyalty ( if that is the right word ) to all things
DRFC but you really do need to take your blinkers off.
I consider myself to be one of the most positive posters on this site, Always looking for the positives not the negatives. But reality is what is staring us in our faces. DF is not improving this team, in fact I feel at times we are going backwards. Allowances need to be made due the age of many of our players I will accept.
The problem is Fergie’s constant tinkering with formations and playing Mason, Rowe and Blair in particular out of position.
Tommy Rowe is our most creative player and yesterday he spent 75 mins in his own half. That is quite frankly ludicrous. Mason is a right back and needs to stay there as we don’t have anyone else better in the current squad. Blair is not a full back and should be playing further up the pitch where his pace can hurt the opposition.
Until DF gets this right we are going to continue to struggle to string positive results together.
Is it any wonder we score so few goals when the players that should be creating chances ( and scoring some goals themselves) are spending nearly all their time defending.
We created almost ZERO chances yesterday and got very luck at the death. Our starting formation yesterday was a joke. 
The opposition must be laughing when they see our best player at left back. 
DICKOS open your eyes and take those red and white hooped tinted glasses off and be HONEST. Do you really think everything is well with the way DF is running the tactical side of the team. What about our continual inability to defend corners? It’s an epidemic which HAS TO BE SORTED.
The next two matches have to yield 4 points or we are in a relegation battle. FACT not FICTION.   

If we win on Tuesday we're likely to go 11th, that's not a relegation battle, even if we then lose on Saturday.
I've said many times when he's got things wrong, Wigan away for example, Scunthorpe away, and yes on Saturday.
But all managers make decisions that supporters don't agree with, listen to talk sport you'll get Man U fans, arsenal fans, Liverpool fans all complaining about their manager.
But the facts are we've lost one game out of 11, we're midtable, a place where most of the complainers said they'd snap your hand off for.
The whole meaning of midtable means your not that far off the relegation zone,

As for going backwards, we've played 32 games this season, the first 16 games we got 18 points the second 16 games we've got 21 points. From much tougher fixtures. Not going backwards are we.

I can't believe you say you try to be positive

You don’t read my posts then as I have spent most of the last 2 years on this site moaning about the moaners on here.
Dickos it’s not our league position that is relevant it is the number of points above the bottom 4 that is relevant. We are 6 points off a relegation place.
You keep bringing up the last 11 matches to suit your argument.
The FACT is we have not won a match since beating Rochdale in the league on 29th Dec.
So 2018 is winless FACT.  You can dress it up anyway you wish but IF we do not WIN one of the next two matches the WE ARE IN A RELEGATION SCRAP. Irrelevant of our league position.
CAN YOU NOT remember JAN to MARCH 2016 when we went 16 league games without a win.
I am not suggesting that is going to happen again but if you cannot see why people are concerned at the present winless run then you are not living in the same world as the rest of us.
Negativity and concern are two totally different things aren’t they?
Having said all that as I am a very positive, glass half full person, I think we might beat both Walsall
( well over due a win against them ) and Fleetwood.    BUT IF WE DONT WIN at least ONE then well. ???

You and many others have stated you'd be delighted with a midtable finish.
How many points do you think a midtable side will be off the relegation zone? Bournemouth are 10th in prem and only 5 points off relegation zone. It's what happens when you're midtable.

So if you're perceiving midtable as a successful season then you then can't complain anbojt being 6 points above the relegation zone!

[drfchound]

Huddersfield are three points off mid table but one point away from the bottom three.
Would you be happy with that if we were in the same position?

[NickDRFC]

Huddersfield are three points off mid table but one point away from the bottom three.
Would you be happy with that if we were in the same position?

I’d be happy, it would mean we’d made it to the Premier League!

[drfchound]

Huddersfield are three points off mid table but one point away from the bottom three.
Would you be happy with that if we were in the same position?

I’d be happy, it would mean we’d made it to the Premier League!

Nice one Nick, I like that.

[dickos1]

Huddersfield are three points off mid table but one point away from the bottom three.
Would you be happy with that if we were in the same position?

Bit of a strange comparison
Huddersfield are one place above the relegation zone and have spent the last few weeks in the relegation zone.
When were we in the relegation zone this season?
Never!

Fact is we're far closer to the top half than the relegation zone yet nobody is mentioning he top half you're all mentioning the relegation zone.

Not that long ago you were saying it looked highly unlikely we would make midtable, now we've achieved it you're still going on about the relegation zone

[drfchound]

Huddersfield are three points off mid table but one point away from the bottom three.
Would you be happy with that if we were in the same position?

Bit of a strange comparison
Huddersfield are one place above the relegation zone and have spent the last few weeks in the relegation zone.
When were we in the relegation zone this season?
Never!

Fact is we're far closer to the top half than the relegation zone yet nobody is mentioning he top half you're all mentioning the relegation zone.

Not that long ago you were saying it looked highly unlikely we would make midtable, now we've achieved it you're still going on about the relegation zone

I don’t think I have ever said it was unlikely that we would make mid table.
I have said that I would be delighted if we finish there.

As things stand we are 10 points from the top six and 6 points from the bottom four so in my view, to be genuinely mid table we should be equidistant from both, so 8 points away from both of the aforementioned.
That would obviously be 41 points as things are now, indeed the team in 12th place (actual mid table) has 41 points.

So, to make this clear, we are still not clear of the bottom four especially given our current inability to win a game.

I think you need to understand that concerned supporters are seeing that unless we do start winning some games we are very likely to slip down towards the drop zone.
We have slipped to 15th place from 11th over the last couple of weeks.

This is not being negative, it is simply looking at the facts and considering what might happen.
There is no use adopting the ostrich stance and hoping that everything is going to be ok.

Two years ago when that terrible run had begun there were people saying that we wouldn’t go down, we are bound to win some games, but we all know what happened don’t we.

[dickos1]

Mate
I think your exact words were "the top ten is nothing but a pipe dream"

And " I would gladly take a midtable finish but I have my doubts"

[dickos1]

Midtable is exactly the same number of points from the top as the bottom. I honestly don't think I've ever heard anything like that.
Midtable is 9th-10th down to 15th-16th.

We're closer to the top half so why aren't you mentioning this? We could be 11th in 24 hours we can't be in the relegation zone

[Campsall rover]

Midtable is exactly the same number of points from the top as the bottom. I honestly don't think I've ever heard anything like that.
Midtable is 9th-10th down to 15th-16th.

We're closer to the top half so why aren't you mentioning this? We could be 11th in 24 hours we can't be in the relegation zone

Dickos why do you make an argument about everything. Can you not see we are in danger of slipping into a relegation battle. Yes IF we win tomorrow night things will look much roseier. But even a draw means we need to win on Saturday or at 4-55pm on Saturday we will possibly be only 3 points or even less above the drop zone.
We are not being negative, just pointing out the REALITY, something you will not, or don’t want or cannot grasp.
Dickos I admire you only see positives but you need to accept we are in a mid table position but as the league stands there are around 14 teams which could get relegated and we are one of them.
If we finish 14th I think most people will be happy but 14th at the present time is precarious because of the points gap between us and 21st. So with 14 games to play we are a long way from being safe.

[dickos1]

Just read what you've put.
Nothing about moving up all about going down the table. Half empty or half full, what you've said could just as easily be said

Can u not see we're in danger of reaching the top ten, yes if we lose tomorrow it will look worse,
I'm just pointing out the REALITY something you will not grasp!

[GazLaz]

It is a shame that the old Statto site has died a death because it enabled you to look at the points spreads at this stage of previous seasons.

I agree that a particular previous season has no impact on the current one, but it is interesting to get an idea of what the table looked like after x-number of games.

I'll guarantee two things though based on previous experience: at least one team that is currently in big trouble will stay up with a bit to spare. And one club currently looking safe (and probably still targeting the play-offs) will be sweating on the final day.

EDIT. Last season in League One the bottom four teams after 32 games were the four teams that went down. I was thinking to the two previous seasons (2014-15 and 2015-16).

Does anyone want to give me a price on a team getting relegated from L1 this season with 51 points? That will be the cut off. We will get about 58 points.

[Campsall rover]

Just read what you've put.
Nothing about moving up all about going down the table. Half empty or half full, what you've said could just as easily be said

Can u not see we're in danger of reaching the top ten, yes if we lose tomorrow it will look worse,
I'm just pointing out the REALITY something you will not grasp!

Now you are being pathetic. Grow up. I am trying to have an adult discussion on this forum.
Yes we could finish in the top 6  Are you happy now?
WE HAVE TAKEN 6 POINTS FROM THE LAST 7 GAMES. IT IS OUR RECENT POINTS TALLY THAT IS OF CONCERN.
Look Dickos i genuinely think we will stay up comfortably. ARE YOU HAPPY NOW?
Discussion CLOSED OK as you cannot accept anything you see on here that’s not to your liking.

[BillyStubbsTears]

Campsall.

Yes we’ve only taken six points from seven games. But we’ve had a major injury crisis in that period and 6 of those seven games have been against title/promotion/play-off contenders.

The one easier match we had on paper (Bristol Rovers) coincided with the peak of our defensive crisis which was unfortunate.

I’m struggling to see why more people in here don’t see that context. It’s actually been a pretty decent haul of points from a fiercely difficult set of matches.

[Campsall rover]

Campsall.

Yes we’ve only taken six points from seven games. But we’ve had a major injury crisis in that period and 6 of those seven games have been against title/promotion/play-off contenders.

The one easier match we had on paper (Bristol Rovers) coincided with the peak of our defensive crisis which was unfortunate.

I’m struggling to see why more people in here don’t see that context. It’s actually been a pretty decent haul of points from a fiercely difficult set of matches.

I accept what you say BST but do you not agree 2 more matches without a win and we are in a relegation scrap. That’s all I am saying. Some of those away points were very creditable.
It has been the home matches since the new year that have not provided the points we needed.
It is not the defence that’s the problem ( except set pieces ) it is the lack of goals scored and on Saturday we didn’t create chances. That I hope was a one off.
DF has to play Tommy Rowe as an attacking midfielder. He will create the chances if he is given the role his abilities are best suited for the benefit of the team. Same goes to Matty Blair.
Mason and Garrett must play as full backs, that is what they are.
If DF does not do that we have problems. If he does we will be ok, in fact if he does we will finish in the top 10 that’s how significant I believe it is.
Onwards and upwards.

[BillyStubbsTears]

It is a shame that the old Statto site has died a death because it enabled you to look at the points spreads at this stage of previous seasons.

I agree that a particular previous season has no impact on the current one, but it is interesting to get an idea of what the table looked like after x-number of games.

I'll guarantee two things though based on previous experience: at least one team that is currently in big trouble will stay up with a bit to spare. And one club currently looking safe (and probably still targeting the play-offs) will be sweating on the final day.

EDIT. Last season in League One the bottom four teams after 32 games were the four teams that went down. I was thinking to the two previous seasons (2014-15 and 2015-16).

Does anyone want to give me a price on a team getting relegated from L1 this season with 51 points? That will be the cut off. We will get about 58 points.

Aye. I’ll give you 1/5.

[dickos1]

Just read what you've put.
Nothing about moving up all about going down the table. Half empty or half full, what you've said could just as easily be said

Can u not see we're in danger of reaching the top ten, yes if we lose tomorrow it will look worse,
I'm just pointing out the REALITY something you will not grasp!

Now you are being pathetic. Grow up. I am trying to have an adult discussion on this forum.
Yes we could finish in the top 6  Are you happy now?
WE HAVE TAKEN 6 POINTS FROM THE LAST 7 GAMES. IT IS OUR RECENT POINTS TALLY THAT IS OF CONCERN.
Look Dickos i genuinely think we will stay up comfortably. ARE YOU HAPPY NOW?
Discussion CLOSED OK as you cannot accept anything you see on here that’s not to your liking.

Typical of the negative crowd in here, their negativity gets questioned so they turn it into a slanging match.

Can't you see that nowhere any of you have mentioned winning and moving up the table?

Yesif we lose 2 or3 games in a row we could be in bother, but there's nothing at all to suggest we're going to lose 3 on the trot.

We've lost 1 out of 11

[Park Rover]

Couldn’t agree more Campsall Rover, you are spot on. How many chances did we create on Saturday, I don’t remember their keeper needing to make any saves, other than from a great move in the first half when he saved from Marquis. Playing Rowe and Blair in defence is Madness, we need to create more chances and score more goals . These two players make things happen.

[Alan Southstand]

Campsall, I've been saying for weeks now, that Tommy Rowe is our most potent door opener and should be played just in behind the 2 up front. Copps influence in that position is waning, as he gets older, and we should be a bit more progressive. Trouble is, who plays on the left side if TR moves in? Kongolo?

We haven't got the balance right in midfield all season and it shows with how many goals we have so far. Marquis and (whoever) have been feeding off scraps this season. Whiteman has to start earning his corn, as well.

[RedJ]

Just read what you've put.
Nothing about moving up all about going down the table. Half empty or half full, what you've said could just as easily be said

Can u not see we're in danger of reaching the top ten, yes if we lose tomorrow it will look worse,
I'm just pointing out the REALITY something you will not grasp!

Now you are being pathetic. Grow up. I am trying to have an adult discussion on this forum.
Yes we could finish in the top 6  Are you happy now?
WE HAVE TAKEN 6 POINTS FROM THE LAST 7 GAMES. IT IS OUR RECENT POINTS TALLY THAT IS OF CONCERN.
Look Dickos i genuinely think we will stay up comfortably. ARE YOU HAPPY NOW?
Discussion CLOSED OK as you cannot accept anything you see on here that’s not to your liking.

Typical of the negative crowd in here, their negativity gets questioned so they turn it into a slanging match.

Can't you see that nowhere any of you have mentioned winning and moving up the table?

Yesif we lose 2 or3 games in a row we could be in bother, but there's nothing at all to suggest we're going to lose 3 on the trot.

We've lost 1 out of 11

Nothing to suggest that we'll win 3 on the trot either...

[Bentley Bullet]

Our build-up play is much too slow resulting in our forwards being crowded out with defenders. To rectify this problem DF has changed the forward partnering Marquis but not the style of play that is the problem in the first place!

I noticed on Saturday that Alfie Beestin was man of the match, and it reminded me of the two or three occasions when Alfie May was also man of the match before he became the scapegoat. It's only a matter of time before Beestin suffers the same fate as May unless our lethargic style of play changes.

[dickos1]

Just read what you've put.
Nothing about moving up all about going down the table. Half empty or half full, what you've said could just as easily be said

Can u not see we're in danger of reaching the top ten, yes if we lose tomorrow it will look worse,
I'm just pointing out the REALITY something you will not grasp!

Now you are being pathetic. Grow up. I am trying to have an adult discussion on this forum.
Yes we could finish in the top 6  Are you happy now?
WE HAVE TAKEN 6 POINTS FROM THE LAST 7 GAMES. IT IS OUR RECENT POINTS TALLY THAT IS OF CONCERN.
Look Dickos i genuinely think we will stay up comfortably. ARE YOU HAPPY NOW?
Discussion CLOSED OK as you cannot accept anything you see on here that’s not to your liking.

Typical of the negative crowd in here, their negativity gets questioned so they turn it into a slanging match.

Can't you see that nowhere any of you have mentioned winning and moving up the table?

Yesif we lose 2 or3 games in a row we could be in bother, but there's nothing at all to suggest we're going to lose 3 on the trot.

We've lost 1 out of 11

Nothing to suggest that we'll win 3 on the trot either...

If we won 3 on the trot we'd be up near the playoffs I've not once suggested that's what will happen or even likely to happen.
We will probably get 4 or 5 points from the next 3 games which will mean we stay about where we are, midtable.

Lots of you going on about losing 3 games in a row though