Leaving the EU (I never use the B word if I can avoid it)

[Donnywolf]

With the discussion on here still in full flow (70 Pages now) I just wondered what a "straw poll" on the issue would reveal now 2 years on

DFP are running a feature next week in which you can express in 150 words your view. I have tried to capture some of the options they have not - well 2 of them
They have also done a Poll and I saw the results which were interesting and it will be interesting to see if we as a group are in a similar mind

[DonnyOsmond]

I never voted because I didn't think it'd happen. I'd definitely vote remain given the opportunity again.

[bpoolrover]

I know the poll is in early stages but has the results so far surprised anyone?

[The Red Baron]

I know the poll is in early stages but has the results so far surprised anyone?

Not really, because the national polls suggest that any movement between Leave and Remain is very small. I suspect if you had a re-run tomorrow you might get a small majority for Remain, so that would be unsatisfactory.

Maybe things will change when the final deal is known - especially if the deal is essentially  "No Deal."

[Boomstick]

I know the poll is in early stages but has the results so far surprised anyone?

surprised me a bit, thought this forum was just a small clique of remoaners.
didn't think there were that many brexiteers on here.
come on guys speak up, and add balance to the continued tripe spouted by the remoaners !!

[RedJ]

Hahaha, continued tripe? rich, coming from you.

Or by 'tripe' do you mean "things that actual experts have said that I don't like"?

[SydneyRover]

I know the poll is in early stages but has the results so far surprised anyone?

surprised me a bit, thought this forum was just a small clique of remoaners.
didn't think there were that many brexiteers on here.
come on guys speak up, and add balance to the continued tripe spouted by the remoaners !!

Please do, speak up loud and clear, start by explaining any advantages of leaving, like having less money to worry about, don't have to get up too early in the morning cos I don't have a job, must be shed loads more.

[Bentley Bullet]

It does suggest that leavers tend not to get involved in this thread for some reason. Perhaps they refuse to accept the inevitable, often abusive attacks from the remoaners who insist the country is doomed because of them.

[SydneyRover]

often abusive attacks from the remoaners who insist the country is doomed because of them.

I mostly quote financial journalists and excerpts from reliable news sources, It's hard not to have a dig on occasions as it's mostly on open goal.

[Bentley Bullet]

Perhaps they read different papers to you!

[MachoMadness]

It does suggest that leavers tend not to get involved in this thread for some reason. Perhaps they refuse to accept the inevitable, often abusive attacks from the remoaners who insist the country is doomed because of them.

Maybe it's because most Brexiters I've seen don't have an argument beyond "it'll be alright", and it's easier to just ignore the thread and not say owt than actually have your worldview challenged and admit Murdoch, Farage, BoJo and the rest have pulled your pants down.

Top marks for citing "abusive attacks", then 3 words later using the word "remoaner" by the way. That is just great darts.

[RedJ]

Yerrrr but we're British, be reyt waint it. EU will be tripping over thereselves to make a deal.

[Boomstick]

It does suggest that leavers tend not to get involved in this thread for some reason. Perhaps they refuse to accept the inevitable, often abusive attacks from the remoaners who insist the country is doomed because of them.

Maybe it's because most Brexiters I've seen don't have an argument beyond "it'll be alright", and it's easier to just ignore the thread and not say owt than actually have your worldview challenged and admit Murdoch, Farage, BoJo and the rest have pulled your pants down.

Top marks for citing "abusive attacks", then 3 words later using the word "remoaner" by the way. That is just great darts.

remoaners have no argument other than 'were doomed!'
no one's still explained how and why they think the average person on the street will be affected.

there are no facts for the benefits of remaining over leaving.

4 facts for the benefit of leaving

1. reclaim British sovereignty, elect a British government to govern Britain (no meddling from the eu)

2. millions per day not handed to the eu, money better spent elsewhere.

3. put the brakes on uncontrolled immigration  (we are a small island with limited resources and infrastructure)

4. freedom to strike deals with the rest of the commonwealth and GLOBE.

[Bentley Bullet]

It does suggest that leavers tend not to get involved in this thread for some reason. Perhaps they refuse to accept the inevitable, often abusive attacks from the remoaners who insist the country is doomed because of them.

Maybe it's because most Brexiters I've seen don't have an argument beyond "it'll be alright", and it's easier to just ignore the thread and not say owt than actually have your worldview challenged and admit Murdoch, Farage, BoJo and the rest have pulled your pants down.

Top marks for citing "abusive attacks", then 3 words later using the word "remoaner" by the way. That is just great darts.

Haha! You call yourself a remoaner!

Regarding Murdoch and co, I voted remain, so can I accuse the scaremongers who predicted an immediate recession of pulling my pants down?

 

[SydneyRover]

Perhaps they read different papers to you!

Maybe they do BB but I learnt long ago that you shouldnt believe all you read and for something as important as this youd have to read more that one wouldnt you think?

[SydneyRover]

It does suggest that leavers tend not to get involved in this thread for some reason. Perhaps they refuse to accept the inevitable, often abusive attacks from the remoaners who insist the country is doomed because of them.

Maybe it's because most Brexiters I've seen don't have an argument beyond "it'll be alright", and it's easier to just ignore the thread and not say owt than actually have your worldview challenged and admit Murdoch, Farage, BoJo and the rest have pulled your pants down.

Top marks for citing "abusive attacks", then 3 words later using the word "remoaner" by the way. That is just great darts.

remoaners have no argument other than 'were doomed!'
no one's still explained how and why they think the average person on the street will be affected.

You must have overlooked the last 70 or so pages?

there are no facts for the benefits of remaining over leaving.

See above answer.

4 facts for the benefit of leaving

See previous 70 or so pages.

1. reclaim British sovereignty, elect a British government to govern Britain (no meddling from the eu)

Huh.

2. millions per day not handed to the eu, money better spent elsewhere.

Are you channelling Boris?

3. put the brakes on uncontrolled immigration  (we are a small island with limited resources and infrastructure)

Were all immigrants.

4. freedom to strike deals with the rest of the commonwealth and GLOBE.

You already have that.

[wesisback]

I'm still remain but I can easily see why people would change their vote from remain to leave. This forum sums it up perfectly, the snotty attitudes of the Remain voters, to the point of patronising.
I've said for a while that the Leave vote would increase in a second referendum though you wouldn't think it from looking at the monotonous pages on Brexit on here or most social media apps. It's called an echo chamber.

[MachoMadness]

It does suggest that leavers tend not to get involved in this thread for some reason. Perhaps they refuse to accept the inevitable, often abusive attacks from the remoaners who insist the country is doomed because of them.

Maybe it's because most Brexiters I've seen don't have an argument beyond "it'll be alright", and it's easier to just ignore the thread and not say owt than actually have your worldview challenged and admit Murdoch, Farage, BoJo and the rest have pulled your pants down.

Top marks for citing "abusive attacks", then 3 words later using the word "remoaner" by the way. That is just great darts.

remoaners have no argument other than 'were doomed!'
no one's still explained how and why they think the average person on the street will be affected.

there are no facts for the benefits of remaining over leaving.

4 facts for the benefit of leaving

1. reclaim British sovereignty, elect a British government to govern Britain (no meddling from the eu)

2. millions per day not handed to the eu, money better spent elsewhere.

3. put the brakes on uncontrolled immigration  (we are a small island with limited resources and infrastructure)

4. freedom to strike deals with the rest of the commonwealth and GLOBE.

Thank you for at least responding in more detail than "it'll be alright". However:

1. We're already sovereign, we already make many of our own laws, and most of the laws that are "forced" on us by the EU are in part written and ratified by us. I'm not sure a dodgy referendum that broke our own election laws and which has proven links to foreign money and influence is reclaiming sovereignty in any way.

2. We do send a lot of money to the EU, however in terms of our national budget, what we send is a pittance. The money we get back in trade deals, labour, EU subsidies, and so on dwarfs that by some way. Just look at Donny - the new bypass, Cast theatre, and so on.

3. We already have control over immigration. I've linked to this several times before, but here's the EU's law on the subject. Short version is we can kick out anyone who's deemed to be a "burden on the state" after 3 months. What does it mean to be a "burden"? That's up to us!

Directive 2004/38/EC introduces EU citizenship as the basic status for nationals of the Member States when they exercise their right to move and reside freely in EU territory. For the first three months, every EU citizen has the right to reside in the territory of another EU country with no conditions or formalities other than the requirement to hold a valid identity card or passport. For longer periods, the host Member State may require a citizen to register his or her presence within a reasonable and non-discriminatory period of time.

Migrant workers’ right to reside for more than three months remains subject to certain conditions, which vary depending on the citizen’s status: for EU citizens who are not workers or self-employed, the right of residence depends on their having sufficient resources not to become a burden on the host Member State’s social assistance system, and having sickness insurance. EU citizens acquire the right of permanent residence in the host Member State after a period of five years of uninterrupted legal residence.
Source: http://www.europarl.europa.eu/factsheets/en/sheet/41/free-movement-of-workers

Also EU migrants are a net benefit to the economy anyway and put in more than they take out, although exactly how much this is varies depending on how you spin it.
https://fullfact.org/immigration/do-eu-immigrants-contribute-134-every-1-they-receive/

4. We already have freedom to strike trade deals as part of the EU. All EU countries do. Germany sells shitloads of cars to China. Not long back we agreed to make a bunch of fighter jets for the Saudis. We ship whelks to Korea. Putting a huge trade barrier between us and our closest market - which is one of the largest economies in the world - so we can sell British beef to Australia (which we already can do if we want) seems daft to me.

[MachoMadness]

It does suggest that leavers tend not to get involved in this thread for some reason. Perhaps they refuse to accept the inevitable, often abusive attacks from the remoaners who insist the country is doomed because of them.

Maybe it's because most Brexiters I've seen don't have an argument beyond "it'll be alright", and it's easier to just ignore the thread and not say owt than actually have your worldview challenged and admit Murdoch, Farage, BoJo and the rest have pulled your pants down.

Top marks for citing "abusive attacks", then 3 words later using the word "remoaner" by the way. That is just great darts.

Haha! You call yourself a remoaner!

Regarding Murdoch and co, I voted remain, so can I accuse the scaremongers who predicted an immediate recession of pulling my pants down?

 

No, because we did have a dip in economic performance in line with what the experts expected, but the rising tide of the global economy meant we merely stagnated rather than nosedived into a recession. That "scaremongering" (which has largely come true) doesn't compare to the laundry list of shady stuff that the Leave campaign have been found to have pulled.

[BillyStubbsTears]

Give it up MM. I’ve pointed out the numbers to B.B. times without end and he won’t have it.

He doesn’t see a decline in our GDP growth of more than 2% relative to our competitors [1] since the Vote as validating the predictions of the vast majority of economists that Brexit would be a Very Bad Thing.

[1] Roughly speaking, our GDP growth rate has gone down by about 1% while most of our competitors' has gone up by more than 1%. All other things being equal, we'd have expected our GDP growth rate to have risen by something like the amount that our competitors' has. So, all other things being equal, we'd expect to have ridden this mini boom like the USA, France, Italy, Germany, Japan, Canada etc have done over the past 18-24 months and for our GDP growth rate to be about 3%. Instead, it's about 1%. Because all things are NOT equal. There's something very big that has only affected the UK over the past 2 years.

So, we lost 2% of GDP in 2016-17. That meant we started 2017/18 with an economy already 2% smaller than it should have been. And then we lost 2% of growth in 2017/18. So, (forgive me Dutch, I'm playing fast and loose with compound values) we've lost the equivalent of about 6% of our annual economic output. Which is about £120billion. That's wealth that we as a country have already lost as a direct result of the vote. That's already the equivalent of SIX YEARS worth of the £350m/week figure, which was a lie in any case. It's more like 12 years worth of our actual net contribution to the EU.

By the way, the long term predictions of the BEST case scenario for Brexit are that we would see a 2% hit to GDP. That would mean that we'd lose ~£40bn of wealth every year. The Brexiters tell us that we could make that up by increasing exports to non-EU countries. Well yes. We could. The value of our exports to the Rest of the World is about £180bn per year, and a bit more than that to the EU. So we COULD make up £20bn per year of lost growth. By:

-maintaining our exports to the EU (won't happen because we are leaving the SM and CU)
and
-increasing our exports to the rest of the world by 20% per year...without spending a penny on actually producing the exports, or
-increasing our exports to the rest of the world by 40% per year and make 100% profit on everything.

It's truly fairytale economics. Which is why no respected economist things there is any chance of us leaving in any way that doesn't make us poorer. The only leading economist who says that we could do this in the long run, says that the way to do that is to abolish import tariffs. But he also acknowledges that this would lead to the end of the entire manufacturing sector in the UK. And he says that's OK, because you would just "manage the decline" of the industrial areas (read: "encourage" everyone in Newcastle, Liverpool, Manchester, Yorkshire etc to move down South). He also says that it's OK because there will always be jobs for people without high-level education or technical ability. Which is true of course. People who lose their jobs in manufacturing can always get jobs as road sweepers or barristas or supermarket security guard. That's what he means.

Boomstick, before reverting back to his default state of making childish insults, was asking how Brexit would affect the ordinary person. It's there in those numbers. We are going to be poorer as a country. That's inevitable. So how does he think we pay for our hospitals? Our schools? Our roads and railways? The Treasury has already massively extended the duration of formal Austerity (read: under-investment in public services) because of the hit that Brexit has already had on the economy. It's happening. Now.

THAT is how it's going to hit the ordinary person. Not a sudden smack in the face but a slow and inexorable erosion of the funding for the things that underpin society. That's what you've voted for. That's what is already happening and what will continue to happen way off into the 2020s.

[Bentley Bullet]

BST, why do you tell MM to give it up but then continue with your own mission?

[hoolahoop]

I know the poll is in early stages but has the results so far surprised anyone?

Not really, because the national polls suggest that any movement between Leave and Remain is very small. I suspect if you had a re-run tomorrow you might get a small majority for Remain, so that would be unsatisfactory.

Maybe things will change when the final deal is known - especially if the deal is essentially  "No Deal."

Really ? So far 24 Remain and 20 Leave

54.5 % Remain
45.5 % Leave

Bearing in mind this is a heavy Leave area that is quite telling ; that's a 9% differential, those that didn't vote last time are probably more likely to not make the assumption that Remain would win easily this time !

[bpoolrover]

It's irrelevant really if you voted the same as last time hoola the interesting ones are the 3 who didn't vote last time and the 4 that Would change there vote to yes

[BillyStubbsTears]

BST, why do you tell MM to give it up but then continue with your own mission?

I was giving him information for future discussions with people who might actually be prepared to engage with facts rather than just delight in being a smart arse.

[Boomstick]

BST, why do you tell MM to give it up but then continue with your own mission?

probably for the same reason he wrongly accuses someone else of childish insults, when it's him that spouts them.

[Bentley Bullet]

BST, why do you tell MM to give it up but then continue with your own mission?

I was giving him information for future discussions with people who might actually be prepared to engage with facts rather than just delight in being a smart arse.

And do you think your voice of patronising superiority will convince people to change their mind? or maybe the more obnoxious among you who think trading insults will swing opinion in your favour?

I reckon there's more chance of reasonably minded remainers (like me) swapping sides.

[Boomstick]

BST, why do you tell MM to give it up but then continue with your own mission?

I was giving him information for future discussions with people who might actually be prepared to engage with facts rather than just delight in being a smart arse.

And do you think your voice of patronising superiority will convince people to change their mind? or maybe the more obnoxious among you who think trading insults will swing opinion in your favour?

I reckon there's more chance of reasonably minded remainers (like me) swapping sides.

he likes to bask in his self superiority on here, where he can bully and patronize whomever disagrees with him.
if he engaged in any meaningful political discussion in the real world, with people with real political clout. he would get annihilated.
hence why he spends so long on here.

[wesisback]

It won't. I enjoy listening to James O'Brien debunking stuff but I'm under no illusion that he's exactly the kind of person that led to Brexit in the first place. The smug idea of superiority about which economists have said what, when in reality they're pissing in the wind as much as the next man.
It is worrying that the nation trusts a man like Nigel Farage over the the 'experts but the reality is he did a far better job of pinpointing how shit it is at the bottom rung and exploiting it than any of the Remain camp did. Vacant promises maybe but at least an understanding.

[selby]

  Strewth, I agree with B.B.  Make that five.

[hoolahoop]

It does suggest that leavers tend not to get involved in this thread for some reason. Perhaps they refuse to accept the inevitable, often abusive attacks from the remoaners who insist the country is doomed because of them.

Bremoaning again BB , oh my mates dont want bullying on here - Benrley this shite is unfolding I'm watching the Select committee for leaving the EU on Parliament......it's a booking mess !