2 more wins

[colincramb]

I reckon that will do us. Out of remaining games we should pick up more.

These last two wins at home have been massive. I was very critical last week after the defeat at Luton but fair play to grant and the players... emphatic answer

[BillyStubbsTears]

Agreed

I'll be surprised if any of the chasers hit 70 points, looking at their fixtures.

[BillyStubbsTears]

Yes it could. But it probably won't.

We're talking about probabilities, not certainties.

I've thought for a while that something like 69-71 points will be enough to finish above 7th place.

[steve@dcfd]

At least seven points for me.

[Campsall rover]

9 more points will almost certainly guarantee it for us.
I think 7 will be enough, probably 6 due to our goal difference being worth a point.

[NickDRFC]

BST isn’t ruling anything out either, he’s purely talking about the likeliest possible outcome.

[BillyStubbsTears]

Rigo.

I'm not necessarily disagreeing.

If we get another 2 wins and a draw, given our goal difference, this is the form the chasing pack would need to overtake us.

Peterborough 13 points  in 7 games - equal to 85 over a season.

Coventry and Blackpool 14 in 6 - equivalent to 107 over the season.

Fleetwood. 15-16 from 7 games (depending on their GD which is the closest to ours) equivalent to 99-105 points over a season.

So yeah, one of those teams COULD hit excellent form. And I still think that if one does, 70 points will  more likely than not be enough to clinch 6th place.

Peterborough would need 5 wins from 7 to pip us.

Coventry and Blackpool would need 5 wins and a draw from 6.

Fleetwood would need 6 wins from 7.

Looking at their fixtures, that's not going to happen.

69 points might be enough.
70 points likely to be enough.
72 points pretty much certain to be enough.

Now let's get the points bagged.


If we get three wins and hit 72 points, we're pretty well certain to get 6th

[andysly]

8/9 points from last 6 pretty much replicates our average for the season and should be enough from now.
However lose at Bradford and 9 from 5 looks a lot harder to find.

[IDM]

In theory, one or two of those teams could win all 6 games - unlikely but possible - and would go into the play offs in great form.

However, my mantra is still let’s just take things one game at a time..

Bradford away is now the most important fixture.

[Colemans Left Hook]

BST isn’t ruling anything out either, he’s purely talking about the likeliest possible outcome.

oh yes he is i posted this before last saturdays matches when Luton beat Rovers and Burton came from 0-2 to beat Accrington 5-2 . Burton F.C. hadn't the word "five" in their vocabularily til after the match (excluding the Man city match)
I was feeling pretty stupid when the score was 0-2 !!!

this is what i posted

"as i have consistently posted I am not all that worried about Luton -- for reasons stated as for coventry a threat there is one team we all underestimate Burton
i simple terms coventry won at peterbrew   then Burton won at Coventry was it last saturday -- i would be more afraid of them as play off contenders -- yes they do bore you to death  but they need to be considered remember they made the last 4 of the league cup or whatever it is called ."

on paper if Burton win their game in hand they are only one point behind the Coventry & Blackpool   so they are on the up as the results show - (and i expect Accrington to get relegated after losing 5-2 from 0-2 they are in freefall and moaning on the way down )

the only trouble is i did not know who Burton had to play nice easy run in

Barnsley home- Sunderland away - Scunthorpe away - Portsmouth home --southend away -- Luton home -- Peterborough away

https://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/football/teams/burton-albion/scores-fixtures/2019-04

if they can win all those they deserve to go up  ...  shame they don't get a full house by playing Charlton

[drfchound]

Rigo.

I'm not necessarily disagreeing.

If we get another 2 wins and a draw, given our goal difference, this is the form the chasing pack would need to overtake us.

Peterborough 13 points  in 7 games - equal to 85 over a season.

Coventry and Blackpool 14 in 6 - equivalent to 107 over the season.

Fleetwood. 15-16 from 7 games (depending on their GD which is the closest to ours) equivalent to 99-105 points over a season.

So yeah, one of those teams COULD hit excellent form. And I still think that if one does, 70 points will  more likely than not be enough to clinch 6th place.

Peterborough would need 5 wins from 7 to pip us.

Coventry and Blackpool would need 5 wins and a draw from 6.

Fleetwood would need 6 wins from 7.

Looking at their fixtures, that's not going to happen.

69 points might be enough.
70 points likely to be enough.
72 points pretty much certain to be enough.

Now let's get the points bagged.


If we get three wins and hit 72 points, we're pretty well certain to get 6th

What a mini run equates to over a season is irrelevant.
It is possible for any team to put together a really good run of form over a short period, say over five to eight games.
It looked like we were stitched on for the L2 title in 2016/17 but our form stuttered and we were overtaken by Portsmouth who won seven and drew once in their last eight matches.
Anything can happen.

[andyst79]

Just concentrate on doing what we're doing forget about the rest. It's been a good week with key midfielders out .

[Lesonthewest]

A win at Bradford would put real pressure on the chasing pack, hopefully we can.

[GazLaz]

Looking at their fixtures, that's not going to happen.

Anything can happen.

We have an 80%+ chance of finishing in the playoffs.

[drfchound]

Looking at their fixtures, that's not going to happen.

Anything can happen.

We have an 80%+ chance of finishing in the playoffs.

Means nothing at this moment in time.

Agreed, good odds but not a certain result.

[RobTheRover]

The playoff final is the day after I'm at an all day mini festival headlined by Echo and the Bunnymen, with Jim Bob from Carter and Miles Hunt from the Wonder Stuff on the bill too.

What a weekend that is going to be!   

[BillyStubbsTears]

Hound.

The reason I put the number of points that the required form would equate to over a season was to highlight the level of form required for any of the chasers to catch us, if we get 70 points. Nothing more, nothing less.

I agree that clubs can hit good form. What I'm pointing out is that, if we get 70 points, either Peterborough have to hit very good form or one of the other three has to hit exceptional form to catch us.

That's not impossible of course, but it is also not likely. Most moderate clubs, at most times, don't suddenly go on runs of exceptional form. And despite there being a longstanding myth about it ("some club always comes with a late run..." etc) there's no evidence that such transformations happen more frequently at the ends of seasons. SOME clubs, SOMETIMES do, but its the exception rather than the rule.

Then, you need to factor in who the chasers still have to play.

Peterborough play Blackpool, Fleetwood and Portsmouth away, Sunderland at home.
Blackpool play Luton and Barnsley away, Fleetwood and Peterborough at home.
Coventry play Sunderland, Portsmouth and us away.
Fleetwood play Barnsley and Blackpool away, Sunderland and Peterborough at home.

All four have 50+% of their remaining matches against sides in the top 10, and 30-50% of their remaining matches against sides in the top 6.

Again, as I say, there's no guarantee that one of those clubs won't go on a stellar run, but on balance, I'd very much expect them not to do.

Put it this way: If you knew for a fact now that the Rovers were going to get 70 points, and a bookie offered you evens on us finishing in the top six, would you take the bet? Me, I'd snap their hands off.

[GazLaz]

Looking at their fixtures, that's not going to happen.

Anything can happen.

We have an 80%+ chance of finishing in the playoffs.

Means nothing at this moment in time.

Of course it means something. It means a lot in fact.

[NickDRFC]

Looking at their fixtures, that's not going to happen.

Anything can happen.

We have an 80%+ chance of finishing in the playoffs.

Means nothing at this moment in time.

Of course it means something. It means a lot in fact.

Rigo, if our significantly higher probability means nothing, then would you happily trade position with Peterborough or Blackpool?

[GazLaz]

Looking at their fixtures, that's not going to happen.

Anything can happen.

We have an 80%+ chance of finishing in the playoffs.

Means nothing at this moment in time.

Of course it means something. It means a lot in fact.

Rigo, if our significantly higher probability means nothing, then would you happily trade position with Peterborough or Blackpool?

Of course he wouldn’t, he’s talking absolute guff.

[drfchound]

Looking at their fixtures, that's not going to happen.

Anything can happen.

We have an 80%+ chance of finishing in the playoffs.

Means nothing at this moment in time.

Of course it means something. It means a lot in fact.

Rigo, if our significantly higher probability means nothing, then would you happily trade position with Peterborough or Blackpool?

No of course not but we had at least an 80% chance of winning L2 with six games to go and that didnt happen either.

Fat lady singing etc.

[drfchound]

Hound.

The reason I put the number of points that the required form would equate to over a season was to highlight the level of form required for any of the chasers to catch us, if we get 70 points. Nothing more, nothing less.

I agree that clubs can hit good form. What I'm pointing out is that, if we get 70 points, either Peterborough have to hit very good form or one of the other three has to hit exceptional form to catch us.

That's not impossible of course, but it is also not likely. Most moderate clubs, at most times, don't suddenly go on runs of exceptional form. And despite there being a longstanding myth about it ("some club always comes with a late run..." etc) there's no evidence that such transformations happen more frequently at the ends of seasons. SOME clubs, SOMETIMES do, but its the exception rather than the rule.

Then, you need to factor in who the chasers still have to play.

Peterborough play Blackpool, Fleetwood and Portsmouth away, Sunderland at home.
Blackpool play Luton and Barnsley away, Fleetwood and Peterborough at home.
Coventry play Sunderland, Portsmouth and us away.
Fleetwood play Barnsley and Blackpool away, Sunderland and Peterborough at home.

All four have 50+% of their remaining matches against sides in the top 10, and 30-50% of their remaining matches against sides in the top 6.

Again, as I say, there's no guarantee that one of those clubs won't go on a stellar run, but on balance, I'd very much expect them not to do.

Put it this way: If you knew for a fact now that the Rovers were going to get 70 points, and a bookie offered you evens on us finishing in the top six, would you take the bet? Me, I'd snap their hands off.

BST, I know exactly what you are saying and in all probability it will work out that way.
However, as I said earlier, it is still very possible that we could have some bad results and someone could come through the pack to pip us for sixth.

A bit early for chicken counting really.

[NickDRFC]

The post isn't counting chickens at all. He's offering a very rational and reasonable explanation of why 70 points is likely to be enough for 6th place. He's not saying it will definitely be enough, nor is he saying it will definitely be us who finish 6th. Of course nothing is close to being decided yet but it's much better to have the odds stacked in our favour than not.

[andysly]

Looking at their fixtures, that's not going to happen.

Anything can happen.

We have an 80%+ chance of finishing in the playoffs.

Means nothing at this moment in time.

Of course it means something. It means a lot in fact.

Rigo, if our significantly higher probability means nothing, then would you happily trade position with Peterborough or Blackpool?

No of course not but we had at least an 80% chance of winning L2 with six games to go and that didnt happen either.

Fat lady singing etc.

IMO the problem in the L2 season was starting the celebrations early. The celebrations for the win over Mansfield that got us promoted were too much too soon.
This season we have achieved nothing yet so there's no reason to relax a bit like that end of season.

[drfchound]

The post isn't counting chickens at all. He's offering a very rational and reasonable explanation of why 70 points is likely to be enough for 6th place. He's not saying it will definitely be enough, nor is he saying it will definitely be us who finish 6th. Of course nothing is close to being decided yet but it's much better to have the odds stacked in our favour than not.

BST is offering lots of reasons why his scenario could come to pass.
He also says agrees with me that one team could come through the pack but says it is very unlikely.
He goes on to say that one of the clubs he listed could go on a stellar run but that he would expect them not to do so.

That could quite easily be seen to be chicken counting.

[idler]

Looking at their fixtures, that's not going to happen.

Anything can happen.

We have an 80%+ chance of finishing in the playoffs.

Means nothing at this moment in time.

Of course it means something. It means a lot in fact.

Rigo, if our significantly higher probability means nothing, then would you happily trade position with Peterborough or Blackpool?

No of course not but we had at least an 80% chance of winning L2 with six games to go and that didnt happen either.

Fat lady singing etc.

IMO the problem in the L2 season was starting the celebrations early. The celebrations for the win over Mansfield that got us promoted were too much too soon.
This season we have achieved nothing yet so there's no reason to relax a bit like that end of season.

I said exactly the same when everybody ran on the pitch.
It was ours to lose and we did spectacularly.
Every good result now ramps up the pressure on our rivals and reduces their chance of making up any leeway. It would be great to go to Sunderland with a decent cushion to increase our confidence and reduce nerves.

[BillyStubbsTears]

Rigo

I assume you never cross the road then, because you can't be certain that the ghost of Ayrton Senna won't come round the corner at a ton and a half and wipe you out.

One of the adult skills that we all need to have to survive is dealing with probabilities. All I've done in this thread is give reasons why, probably, 69-71 points will see us fine.

[BillyStubbsTears]

Idler. There's a slightly convoluted, but not outrageously unlikely set of results that would mean us winning at Sunderland would clinch 6th place mathematically.

Practically speaking, if we were to win the next two, we'd go into the Sunderland match knowing that avoiding defeat would, to all intents and purposes, do the job for us.

[Dutch Uncle]

With no basis whatsoever my gut feeling (which is usually pessimistic) is as follows:

After Luton game, no momentum, Kane and Whiteman out for all/nearly all season - our chances of playoffs 30% at most
After Bristol Rovers game - 40%
After Walsall game - 50%

Thsi still makes us favourites as I would say something like:

DRFC 50%
Peterborough 25%
Coventry 10%
Blackpool 10%
Feetwood 4%
Burton 1%

I would definitely rather be in our position than anyone else, but with a currently wafer thin squad (16 fit senior professionals) a couple of injuires to say any of Marosi, Marquis, Wilks or Coppinger could hurt us badly. 

A win at Bradford, a first away win since December, would be a huge step closer.

 

[Fur Calf]

I know rather than speculating why don't we just wait and see what happens from now to the end of the season. The main thing is we are in a very good situation to achieve our aim of finishing in the playoffs.