Tory Leader - Who's your preference?

[BillyStubbsTears]

Wilts.

You're better than that first paragraph. I made a specific comment about a specific person. You are much too clever to really think that I think all of the others are racist. You can and should do much better than that.

Second paragraph is more consistent though. It's you dropping back into Whataboutery again rather than addressing the point.

I'm not doubting that there are potential problems for Labour in some post-industrial seats. And that some of those may be lost if Labour takes a firm position on opposing Brexit.

But, as I keep saying, focussing on that and that alone is like worrying about losing a couple of fingers while the meat grinder is mincing your legs. Explain to me how Labour pulls itself back from its worst electoral position in 101 years without pissing one group or another off.

And try to do it without snide daftness. You're better than that.

[BillyStubbsTears]

By the way, this is a much clearer, more nuanced and better presented argument than the one I'm trying to make.

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2019/jun/18/labour-brexit-remain?CMP=Share_iOSApp_Other

Of course, the tiny cabal around Corbyn is firing out as hominems about Mason being part of a coup against the Dear Leader, but there you go. Might be worth actually reading this and considering the case he's making.

[wing commander]

Stupid is the very last thing he is. When it comes to his career, he's ruthless.

   You are spot on Billy.Boris may come across as a cheeky bungling clown but he's far from it..If only he cared as much for his beliefs in running the country (whatever they may be) as much as his own career then he would be ideal for the Tory's,but he doesn't..

   For me the classic case in point was the last leadership election.When Gove u turned and stabbed him in the back, much to everybody's shock he stood up and pulled out of the race.Nobody could understand it.It was early days and people still expected him to get into the run off with May..

   However Boris knew that with the Gove vote split and the bad blood that was headline news he couldn't rely on the Gove mp's to back him if Gove was booted.So he wisely dropped off the hustings without causing future enemy's these contests bring and waited for another day...

    That day has come,he will be the next PM unless something drastic happens..As a tory I personally don't want him,everything he says is designed for impact on the day in question and changes the following week,it's almost as if he makes it up as he goes along..Turkeys however don't vote for xmas and Tory mp's know that with Boris as leader they will get a big bounce against a shockingly inept opposition.It may even allow them the luxury of a early GE.

   And that's why I'm so down with Politics, because time and time again Politicians from all party's prove that the job they were elected to do,running the country to their best ability's plays second fiddle to their own political career's.

[SydneyRover]

"Dominic Raab, the former Brexit secretary, said yesterday that Johnson had looked him in the eyes and told him that he would deliver Brexit by 31 October. David Davis, another former Brexit secretary backing Johnson, said much the same on the Today programme this morning''

''Never give a sucker an even break'' comes to mind

[wilts rover]

Sorry Billy, again you are deflecting and avoiding the actual issue. 26 Labour MP's wrote a letter to the Shadow Cabinet yesterday explaining what the effect would be on their constituencies if Labour backed a 2nd referendum.

You have yet to tell me what is wrong with their letter and why you think you know their constituencies better than they do?

Because if you can't convince me, you can't convince, Herbert, Steve, Selby, BB etc. And if you can't convince them you can't convince the wavering voters in the Leave seats Labour needs to win an election.

Caroline Flint isn't supporting Leave because she want's to control immigration. She is doing it because she thinks Farage will win Don Valley.

[Not Now Kato]

This was posted on twitter (Nick Cohen)

Talked to a Tory MP last night who was backing Johnson
"Do you think he'd be any good as PM"
"No"
"What on earth will he do about Brexit"?
"No one knows"
"Why do you want him, then?"
"He's the best hope we've got"
"By 'we" you don't mean Britain do you?"
"No the party, of course"

[BillyStubbsTears]

Wilts.

I think you need to spend a little more time reading what I write before you respond, rather than responding to what you think I think.

Try this.
"I'm not doubting that there are potential problems for Labour in some post-industrial seats. And that some of those may be lost if Labour takes a firm position on opposing Brexit.

But, as I keep saying, focussing on that and that alone is like worrying about losing a couple of fingers while the meat grinder is mincing your legs."

And then read Mason's article. Consider this fact for example.
"For every voter Labour is currently losing to Farage, it loses four to the Greens, Liberal Democrats or left nationalist parties. That was the evidence presented to the shadow cabinet."

And then try this.
"Explain to me how Labour pulls itself back from its worst electoral position in 101 years without pissing one group or another off."

Or are you happy that Labour is currently supported by little more than 1 in 5 of the electorate?

My issue with Flint by the way is that she has normalised dislike of immigrants by her comments, and she presented entirely wrong "evidence" to support that. Is that the way you want the Labour party to go? Me, I'd rather Labour lose seats and build a truly progressive front than pander to Farage's agenda.

Here's the problem. For every Don Valley you win by following Flint's approach, you will lose 3 other seats. And, more importantly, you will lose a generation of instinctively left-leaning younger voters. They are the ones who have deserted Labour in their millions over the past 6 months.

If you're serious about this, tell me how you win them back.

[DonnyOsmond]

I agree that BP are the biggest threat, after all they can probably work with the Greens and LD.

[BillyStubbsTears]

Wilts.

Some number for you to ponder on.

YouGov poll from late December.

Lab 39
LD 7
Green 4

Among people younger than 50
Lab 51
LD 7
Green 5

Among people who voted Remain in 2016
Lab 50
LD 12
Green 7

Corresponding figures from YG last week
Overall
Lab 19
LD 22
Green 8

Among under 50s

Lab 25
LD 25
Green 14

Among people who voted Remain in 2016

Lab 28
LD 38
Green 12.


Start from there and tell me how Labour doesn't get annihilated in the next GE by listening to Flint.

[SydneyRover]

I've listed below the best features of the final 2 candidates and all their past achievements.

[Donnywolf]

Cant disagree with any of that !

[Glyn_Wigley]

The worst Foreign Secretary in living history versus the worst Health Secretary in living history. What a choice.

[Filo]

The worst Foreign Secretary in living history versus the worst Health Secretary in living history. What a choice.

Yes it’s like asking you which eye you would like burning out with a red hot poker, the right or the left sir? 😀

[BillyStubbsTears]

Ask yourself this.

What do either of them believe in? What sort of country do they want Britain to be? What are their opinions about how we deal with climate change, AI, inequality?

This will be three consecutive Tory MPs who will have risen to the highest office without ant concept of what they actually want the country to be.

[BillyStubbsTears]

This looks well on our future PM.

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/jun/21/police-called-to-loud-altercation-at-boris-johnsons-home

And what's even more disturbing...the police claimed this didn't happen, until the journalist have them chapter and verse of the case number and vehicles that attended.

[BillyStubbsTears]

But while it's OK for Johnson to lie and abuse anyone he wishes, and that's all part of making politics interesting again, if you criticise HIM and you're a Muslim, you get hoyed out of the Tory party.

https://mobile.twitter.com/ShehabKhan/status/1142131526844506112

[BillyStubbsTears]

That Johnson article by the way, went up in The Guardian website at just after 7 tonight. ITV picked it up immediately and had it as their lead story on the evening news.

The BBC put it on their website just before 11pm and buried it in the middle of the evening news.

This is the next PM. Having the police called to his flat because of a domestic with his partner, who is recorded shouting "Get off me!" with plates smashing and the neighbours saying something banging that shook their house. And the BBC bury it. What the f**k is going on there?

[SydneyRover]

But while it's OK for Johnson to lie and abuse anyone he wishes, and that's all part of making politics interesting again, if you criticise HIM and you're a Muslim, you get hoyed out of the Tory party.

https://mobile.twitter.com/ShehabKhan/status/1142131526844506112

''EXC: The Conservative Muslim chief has been expelled from the Tory Muslim group. Mohammed Amin tells me he has been expelled following an intervention by CCHQ because he criticised the 'moral integrity' of Boris Johnson''

Don't get too excited he's expelled from the groups not the party BST.

[BillyStubbsTears]

Fair dos. I misread the tweet.

Hoyed out of your position as head of the Muslim Tories.

[SydneyRover]

Is there anyone, anything that Boris hasn't abused?

Women
Muslims
Faith
Public Office
Public trust
Public money

[SydneyRover]

Leaked transcript of Boris and Carrie late night bust up:

B/ oh come on

C/ No get of me you oaf, if you think you can do to me what you'll do to the country think again

B/ but everyone loves me

C/ what about those that live around Heathrow?

B/ they are getting improved transport options.

C/ what about the garden bridge that cost the public 46m?

B/ They didn't tell me there were other bridges already there.

C/What about the 200,000k on water canon?

B/ they were for watering the garden bridge.

C/ agh, scream, you're a liar

B/ only when I have to darling, you will vote for me won't you?

C/ well what about that what you said and the woman held in Iran?

B/ that made no difference-to me.

C/ well what about that poor little Japanese kid you tackled?

B/ he had the ball, I thought he was going to score.

C/ well it's more than what you're going to do tonight, aaaaagh, get off me.

B/ oh come on Carrie, what if I make you the treasurer?

C/ you've already promised that job to around 20 people already you liar, and what about when you insulted the people of Papua New Guinea.

B/ I apologised and said that I'm sure lead lives of blameless bourgeois domesticity, and they love me now.

C/ shhhh, some ones at the door

B/ probably just that nosy bitch from next door.

C/ don't say that I thought we were their friends?

B/ That was last week and anyway we cut the police numbers right back so nothings going to happen, now where was I ...............................

[wilts rover]

Wilts.

I think you need to spend a little more time reading what I write before you respond, rather than responding to what you think I think.

Why, you have yet to respond to what I wrote - or the letter the 26 MP's wrote.

Quote your figures all you want, how does that translate into seats? Those 26 have said they will loose their seats if Labour does what you want. Which 26 will your plan replace them with?

Quote your percentage all you want. Remain support is strong in metropolitan areas,university towns and Scotland, not spread out across the country. Look at that Article 50 petition.

The current Labour position retained Peterborough. Whatever stand they take it won't win Brecon.

I don't have a problem with you campaigning or advocating remain, it is your own personal choice. But until you can show me why those 26 MP's are wrong it that letter that's all it should be, your personal choice.

[wilts rover]

Tory leadership race day 1

- Police in midnight call to Johnson flat over row with his partner
- Minister Mark Field suspended over physical handing of protestor
- Tory whips investigate abusive texts between Tory MPs
- Tory MP ousted by constituents over expense fraud

https://twitter.com/SamCoatesSky/status/1142189045688279042

and he missed out - Hunt accused of breaking promise to contaminated blood victim

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-leeds-48718498

Tories eh, natural party of leadership, it will be a fun summer.

[BillyStubbsTears]

Wilts.

Its really hard to have a discussion if you insist on ignoring what I write. I've said several times that I accept moving to an explicit Remain stance will cause problems in some post-industrial seats. I don't know how many more times you want me to say that.

But focussing on that and ignoring the other side of the problem as you and those 26 are doing, is what has got Labour into its worst position since WWI. You need to face up to that before you can find a solution. In the latest opinion poll FORTY PER CENT of people who voted Labour in 2017 (in an election Labour lost) now identify with explicitly Remain parties. That's the starting point.

Now, onto the content of the letter from the 26. They state, with zero evidence, that "shifting to a more explicitly pro-remain position would leave us vulnerable in seats we need to hold or win without enough potential seat gains in winnable remain majority areas."

See, I find it useful to actually look at the facts rather than accept assertions. Especially when one of the authors of that letter has previous in making assertions that don't align with the facts, to justify her normalising anti-immigrant feeling.

So. Here's the facts. Here's all the Labour seats and targets where the incumbent's majority is <5%. And the estimates of the percentage of the electorate in those seats who currently support Leave, from a huge Survation poll.

https://mobile.twitter.com/stephen_latham/status/1141741211339894785

So there you go. Even allowing for the Scottish seats, there are still more Lab marginals/targets in Remain areas than in Leave areas. And THEN factor in that 75% of Labour's 2017 support identify as Remain supporters.

Now. I'll ask again. If I'm wrong on this, explain to me what the policy should be to bring Labour back from its current catastrophic position. Stop diverting. Stop ignoring. Tell me what YOU think we should do.

[SydneyRover]

Even if Boris has screwed his chances of getting the top job and nothing is certain, the one thing that is certain is that it will not feel like a win if *unt gets the job will it?

[wilts rover]

Billy

I stand by my positions that I have repeated several times on several threads.

Labour need a policy that attracts both Remainers and Leavers, because thats where their voters are. It should develop as the political situation around it develops. Calls for a 2nd referendum now are just being seen as calls to overturn the 1st one - and alienating a certain set of voters.

If there is a possibility of deal it should be followed - with that deal being put to a public vote (which is the situation now).

The closer we get to a Johnson premiership, where there is no chance of a deal, then it can only be a public vote on No Deal V Remain.

If a Johnson premiership falls, then Labour's position in the subsequent GE should be decided by a special poll of the membership, so it would be most likely Remain.

[BillyStubbsTears]

Wilts.

If your policy is to attract both Leave AND Remain supporters, then I assume you accept that it is failing in the most spectacular fashion.

In polls at the turn of the year, 52% of Remain voters from 2016 and about 18% of people who voted Leave were supporting Labour.

In the latest polls, the figures are 28% and 9%.

So Labour's current policies are alienating both Leave and Remain supporters. Labour's lost about half of each. Which is quite some feat!

The problem from here of course, is what to do to mitigate the worst Labour support since Lloyd-George was PM. See, if you only attract the Leave supporters that you've lost, they tot up only about 5% of the electorate. And if you attract them by going full Flint, you'll lose lifelong Labour members. Like me.

You say you want a policy that attracts both Leave and Remain supporters.

Well aye. No shit? Don't we all? Question is, what IS that policy. Because the current triangulation is attracting neither side.

So come on. What's the magic solution?

[SydneyRover]

Yet more lies from Boris

New evidence suggesting close links between Boris Johnson and Donald Trump’s controversial former campaign manager Steve Bannon can be revealed today, calling into question the former foreign secretary’s previous denials of an association with the influential far-right activist.

Video evidence obtained by the Observer shows Bannon, who helped mastermind Trump’s successful bid for the presidency but was later exiled from the White House, talking about his relationship and contacts with Johnson, and how he helped him craft the first speech after his resignation as foreign secretary, in which Johnson tore into Theresa May’s Brexit strategy.

And this is the guy the conservative party who know him best and have worked closely with him for years have put at the top of the ticket.

https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2019/jun/22/video-reveals-steve-bannon-links-to-boris-johnson

[SydneyRover]

This is funny, spin from the Tele, I'm surprised that they could actually steel themselves to write the words left-wing on the front page.

"Left-wing neighbour admit to taping Boris Johnson row with girlfriend''

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/

and further down the page another article reads '' My husband’s put-downs have brought us to breaking point''

Yet more "Dear Richard Madeley: 'I seem to have lost the knack of making friends''

[BillyStubbsTears]

All Johnson had to do was not shit the bed for a couple or three weeks and he was PM.

He couldn't even manage 36 hours without his real personality coming back to the fore.

Now, I'm not one to claim that politicians have to be whiter than white. I don't think him having a row with his partner (is this his third, or fourth... I've lost count) necessarily makes him unfit for Govt. But it's the content of the row that's illuminating. The woman who shares her life with him screaming "You just don't care for anything because you're spoilt. You have no care for money or anything."

That meshes precisely with what others who know Johnson have said about him. He cares for nothing but himself and his own desires. And THAT makes him unfit for Govt.

Won't change the outcome, mind. The Tory members will still vote for him.