Should the season finish now (CORONAVIRUS thread)

[DonnyOsmond]

Not much you can do with fans though, especially with a lot of them not even washing their hands after having a piss. In a packed stadium one person coughing and everyone around them could get it. That'll be especially bad when it comes to something like Euros.

[scawsby steve]

I agree with BST on this. It's not about panicking, it's about simple common sense things.

I can honestly say it won't make a deal of difference to my habits, as I'm a bit of a germophobe already. I always wash my hands with anti-bacterial before I eat anything, even a biscuit or a packet of crisps.

As regards the Rovers, as soon as the first cases appear in Donny, I feel our last couple of home games might be played behind closed doors, and streamed on Ifollow.

[Donnywolf]

Just mentioned this the other day

Asian Flu - most of the old timers on here will remember it AND most will have had it

Look at how many died in UK in the first "flush" of the disease. 3950 !!!

I remember the 4 of us in our house all having it at the same time. I told my local Barman today and he said "good god - did you all survive and I said no unfortunately my Parents died albeit some 30 years and a bit later"

[ravenrover]

Blly, can you please stick to the Off Topic thread to  talk in depth about this, thank you

[since-1969]

After this virus fades into memory and we have washed our hands to the bone and sanitised everything not still moving about   ,there is one thing for sure everyone and everything will be very CLEAN and shinny !

[Alickismyhero]

I am with BST and value his informed comments.

 I can't allow ANY chance of bringing the virous home because of the vulnerability of a family member, due to her illness.

So I will not be going to any games until the crisis is over.

At my golf club they even bang elbows together at the end of a game now, things are changing.

[since-1969]

Reported on ‘Sky News’ over 70s to be warned to stay at home and that includes football matches.

[The Red Baron]

I'm sure that at some stage matches will be either played behind closed doors or postponed. However, I wonder where you are at greatest risk of catching Coronavirus (or indeed any other disease passed by human-to-human contact)? In a football stadium in the open air, where you have your own seat, or on a crowded bus or train, where you probably can't avoid coming into physical contact with strangers?

Maybe when we get to the stage of telling people not to go to public events we should be advising them not to use public transport and cut their social interactions to an absolute minimum.

[BillyStubbsTears]

TRB.

That is coming. Very quickly.

Currently,the number of cases in the UK is doubling every two days. If that continues unchecked, we'd be fast approaching a million cases by the end of the month, and at 10million cases by mid-April.

I've no idea if it WILL keep on doubling at that rate without steps to check it, but if I were in charge and it did keep on increasing like that into the middle of next week, I'd be introducing some pretty draconian steps.

It wouldn't surprise me at all if this is the last weekend with a full set of football matches played in front of live crowds.

[i_ateallthepies]

I'm sure that at some stage matches will be either played behind closed doors or postponed. However, I wonder where you are at greatest risk of catching Coronavirus (or indeed any other disease passed by human-to-human contact)? In a football stadium in the open air, where you have your own seat, or on a crowded bus or train, where you probably can't avoid coming into physical contact with strangers?

Maybe when we get to the stage of telling people not to go to public events we should be advising them not to use public transport and cut their social interactions to an absolute minimum.

I'd say it's half time when the concourses are full and the squeeze to get out at the end of the game that the transmission risk is the greatest.

[dickos1]

TRB.

That is coming. Very quickly.

Currently,the number of cases in the UK is doubling every two days. If that continues unchecked, we'd be fast approaching a million cases by the end of the month, and at 10million cases by mid-April.

I've no idea if it WILL keep on doubling at that rate without steps to check it, but if I were in charge and it did keep on increasing like that into the middle of next week, I'd be introducing some pretty draconian steps.

It wouldn't surprise me at all if this is the last weekend with a full set of football matches played in front of live crowds.

There’s 42000 people currently infected, there’s been 103000 infected since it began.
Almost 60000 people have recovered from it
It’s not doubling every two days

[Bristol Red Rover]

I've seen a few reports in scientific journals suggesting the death rate is MUCH lower than the more commonly reported one. A few places suggesting more like 0.1%. Part of the reason for that is the number of infected people not included from having mild or no symptoms.

If this is true, we're around the level of norma flu.

There's also doubts about how transmissable it has been reported as being. Also from scientific journals.

We'll see soon enough.

[DonnyOsmond]

TRB.

That is coming. Very quickly.

Currently,the number of cases in the UK is doubling every two days. If that continues unchecked, we'd be fast approaching a million cases by the end of the month, and at 10million cases by mid-April.

I've no idea if it WILL keep on doubling at that rate without steps to check it, but if I were in charge and it did keep on increasing like that into the middle of next week, I'd be introducing some pretty draconian steps.

It wouldn't surprise me at all if this is the last weekend with a full set of football matches played in front of live crowds.

There’s 42000 people currently infected, there’s been 103000 infected since it began.
Almost 60000 people have recovered from it
It’s not doubling every two days

He said in the UK which it pretty much is.

29/02 - 21
02/03 - 39
04/03 - 85
06/03 - 163

We're up to 206 today.

[Avsuptem]

 The paranoia about this is wonderfully absurd. There is a 2 % chance of dying if you catch it. Probably 1 in a thousand chance of catching it. But even if it was 1 in ten chance of catching it that would mean a 0.2% chance of it causing one's early demise. Its more dangerous crossing the road. It won't stop me watching Rovers.

[DonnyOsmond]

The paranoia about this is wonderfully absurd. There is a 2 % chance of dying if you catch it. Probably 1 in a thousand chance of catching it. But even if it was 1 in ten chance of catching it that would mean a 0.2% chance of it causing one's early demise. Its more dangerous crossing the road. It won't stop me watching Rovers.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-51718917

Yes 1 in 1000.....

[BillyStubbsTears]

TRB.

That is coming. Very quickly.

Currently,the number of cases in the UK is doubling every two days. If that continues unchecked, we'd be fast approaching a million cases by the end of the month, and at 10million cases by mid-April.

I've no idea if it WILL keep on doubling at that rate without steps to check it, but if I were in charge and it did keep on increasing like that into the middle of next week, I'd be introducing some pretty draconian steps.

It wouldn't surprise me at all if this is the last weekend with a full set of football matches played in front of live crowds.

There’s 42000 people currently infected, there’s been 103000 infected since it began.
Almost 60000 people have recovered from it
It’s not doubling every two days

Might help if you read what I wrote.

[Bristol Red Rover]

The paranoia about this is wonderfully absurd. There is a 2 % chance of dying if you catch it. Probably 1 in a thousand chance of catching it. But even if it was 1 in ten chance of catching it that would mean a 0.2% chance of it causing one's early demise. Its more dangerous crossing the road. It won't stop me watching Rovers.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-51718917

Yes 1 in 1000.....

Lots of coulds and maybes in that official gov line, which is always going to be worse poss case scenario in the case of acute epidemics - the opposite when it comes to chronic epidemics.

[DonnyOsmond]

The paranoia about this is wonderfully absurd. There is a 2 % chance of dying if you catch it. Probably 1 in a thousand chance of catching it. But even if it was 1 in ten chance of catching it that would mean a 0.2% chance of it causing one's early demise. Its more dangerous crossing the road. It won't stop me watching Rovers.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-51718917

Yes 1 in 1000.....

Lots of coulds and maybes in that official gov line, which is always going to be worse poss case scenario in the case of acute epidemics - the opposite when it comes to chronic epidemics.

It does show how they expect it to be a lot lot closer than 1 in 1000 though.

[BillyStubbsTears]

I've seen a few reports in scientific journals suggesting the death rate is MUCH lower than the more commonly reported one. A few places suggesting more like 0.1%. Part of the reason for that is the number of infected people not included from having mild or no symptoms.

If this is true, we're around the level of norma flu.

There's also doubts about how transmissable it has been reported as being. Also from scientific journals.

We'll see soon enough.

Hope you're right about the mortality rate. But there's a massive thing that no-one is taking into account on that score.

At the moment, even in China, there is enough capacity in hospital systems to hospitalise the worst cases and give them top quality care.

You can't do that at the peak of an epidemic. Not if you have 10 million people in the UK infected at the same time. Which is at the lower end of what the experts are saying to expect.

[BillyStubbsTears]

The paranoia about this is wonderfully absurd. There is a 2 % chance of dying if you catch it. Probably 1 in a thousand chance of catching it. But even if it was 1 in ten chance of catching it that would mean a 0.2% chance of it causing one's early demise. Its more dangerous crossing the road. It won't stop me watching Rovers.

Do you get killed once in every 500 times you cross the road? Unlucky lad.

[dickos1]

Even if it is doubling every 2 days, that’s mainly because people are being tested.
There will most likely be hundreds of not thousands of people who have this virus but because their symptoms are so mild they don’t even know about it.

There is no way whatsoever that the number of people are going to die that billy is trying to suggest

[IDM]

You can’t say that for certain, if he’s talking about a worst case scenario then it would hopefully be less, much less if we are careful..

[BillyStubbsTears]

Dickos.

I am not suggesting anything. I have no expertise on this matter. What I'm doing is relaying the information I've seen from people who DO have expertise in this field.

Good to know that they are all wrong though. We are obviously in safe hands because you know more than the experts. That's quite a relief.

I'll give the head of the WHO and the Government Chief Scientific Adviser a bell and tell them Dickos says "Be reyt."

[dickos1]

Billy.
The health secretary was on tv only this morning stating there will be many people carrying this virus that do not know about it

[DonnyOsmond]

Billy.
The health secretary was on tv only this morning stating there will be many people carrying this virus that do not know about it

Yeah and that's terrifying. They'll be giving others it and not even know.

[BillyStubbsTears]

Dickos.

Just a thought. Does it dawn on you that expert epidemiologidts might be aware of that?

That is precisely why they are estimating actual mortality rates around 1%, when the rate if you consider just those who have died compared to those who have survived and recovered is more like (correction) 6%. There are people much smarter than you and I who have spent their lives studying these issues. We should be listening to them. They are, across the board, saying this is very serious and needs to be treated very seriously.

[dickos1]

Billy.
The health secretary was on tv only this morning stating there will be many people carrying this virus that do not know about it

Yeah and that's terrifying. They'll be giving others it and not even know.

But me and you might have it right now, and not have any symptoms whatsoever other than a usual cold

[IDM]

True but the folks you come into contact with or accidentally and unwittingly infect, may have less resistance and become ill.

[DonnyOsmond]

TRB.

That is coming. Very quickly.

Currently,the number of cases in the UK is doubling every two days. If that continues unchecked, we'd be fast approaching a million cases by the end of the month, and at 10million cases by mid-April.

I've no idea if it WILL keep on doubling at that rate without steps to check it, but if I were in charge and it did keep on increasing like that into the middle of next week, I'd be introducing some pretty draconian steps.

It wouldn't surprise me at all if this is the last weekend with a full set of football matches played in front of live crowds.

There’s 42000 people currently infected, there’s been 103000 infected since it began.
Almost 60000 people have recovered from it
It’s not doubling every two days

He said in the UK which it pretty much is.

29/02 - 21
02/03 - 39
04/03 - 85
06/03 - 163

We're up to 206 today.

08/03 - 273

[BillyStubbsTears]

TRB.

That is coming. Very quickly.

Currently,the number of cases in the UK is doubling every two days. If that continues unchecked, we'd be fast approaching a million cases by the end of the month, and at 10million cases by mid-April.

I've no idea if it WILL keep on doubling at that rate without steps to check it, but if I were in charge and it did keep on increasing like that into the middle of next week, I'd be introducing some pretty draconian steps.

It wouldn't surprise me at all if this is the last weekend with a full set of football matches played in front of live crowds.

There’s 42000 people currently infected, there’s been 103000 infected since it began.
Almost 60000 people have recovered from it
It’s not doubling every two days

He said in the UK which it pretty much is.

29/02 - 21
02/03 - 39
04/03 - 85
06/03 - 163

We're up to 206 today.

08/03 - 273

It's grown exactly 13-fold in the past 8 days, 7-fold in the past 6 days and 3.2 times in the past 4 days. That's doubling at about once every 2.2-2.3 days. As Dickos rightly said in another post, that will be skewed somewhat because of the increase in testing finding a lot more cases that weren't found early on. And we should definitely hope that is the case, because if it DID increase this fast, we'd have millions infected by the end of the month.

Epidemiologists say that  for most epidemics the doubling rate is about once every 5 days. That helps but all it really does is delay the peak of the crisis by a few weeks.  If the real, underlying rate of increase IS once every 5 days, we'll see a million infections by the end of April instead, and 10million infections by mid-May. That's better than having the peak come a month earlier, but it's still WAY too quick for us to be able to handle without massive problems. We need to be taking as many precautions as we all can to limit the spread here and now.