Petrol prices

[big fat yorkshire pudding]

Anyone here read much history?

I was just wondering how some comments here would compare to what livery stables, carriage makers, wheelwrights etc said when the motor car was invented?

I hear this argument frequently but It's not quite the same, is it?

A motor carriage had clear benefits in convenience and performance compared to the poor old horse.

An electric car doesn't particularly go faster than an ICE car, it's still not quite as convenient as an ICE car and it will probably cost you a lot more upfront to buy one too. You're not really switching to gain any great benefit for yourself, your doing it for the benefit of the wider community. That's a big ask, which is why it will take government legislation to push the change through.

Surely the technology will evolve and become much cheaper in time?  They're already substantially cheaper than they were though with some way to go.

They've achieved the position for fleet drivers though, they just need to make that mainstream.

[River Don]

This is possibly true BFYP

But for now the advantages of battery electric still over the ICE aren't immediately clear for an individual. Not unless that individual wants to make a contribution to wider society.

Ditching the horse in the old days was a much more obvious change to make I think.

[albie]

RD,

The advantages of EV over ICE are large for the individual buyer.
The running costs are approximately 10x cheaper. Much lower cost to maintain.

The issue is the purchase price, and the point that EV becomes cheaper than ICE.
This varies from 2023 to 2025, depending upon the dramatic fall in battery costs in play;
https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2021/jan/22/electric-vehicles-close-to-tipping-point-of-mass-adoption

Taxes and limitations on access to town centres will shortly come normal, the insurance industry will ramp up ICE costs because EV are much safer, and the industry will withdraw from ICE production when there is no margin to profit.

The price of petrol rising to a high, when the cost of the superior alternative are falling, is a recipe for increased pace of change. Call it a death wish!

[River Don]

Albei,

We're close then but still not there yet.

Two years ago I was in the market for a car and an electric did cross my mind... I went for a nearly new turbo diesel Golf.

A combination of a very good price, no range anxiety, no road tax to pay because of its high emission standards still made it the sensible choice for me. I do try to limit how much I drive, occasionally I need to goto London, a trip of over 200miles.

They are still selling plenty of new ICE cars being sold today, I'd suggest it means the tipping point hasn't been reached yet.

Perhaps by the time I'm in the market for another vehicle electric will be the clear choice but as far as I can see, we're still not there yet.

[albie]

River Don,

It depends on how long you think you will own a vehicle, and how many miles you do each year.
You might well have made the best choice for your position.

But if you think you will own the same car for 10 years, then the value of different options will be in favour of EV, IMO.

When you say that there are plenty of ICE cars available, that is certainly true, but that will change rapidly as the industry retools.

Who is going to be making ICE vehicles once EV becomes cheaper to buy, as well as to run.
The market will disappear, and so will the availability of spares.

A major repositioning of the transport sector is taking place, and the cost comparisons will reinforce the environmental case or change.

[River Don]

When EVs do become cheaper alround then yes, the choice will be fairly easy... So long as there is the infrastructure to support it.

I'm still not sure how people without garages or drives will charge them. I've seen cables coming out of letter boxes being trailed across the street in London. They can't have that kind of thing happening all over the place. I wouldn't like to be relying on charge points away from home, they will charge in both senses.

I'd like to think we can really improve public transport more in future and encourage people not to own cars so much.

[Axholme Lion]

I’ve asked a few car sales people about this recently just to wind them up. None of them will answer the important question, how much to replace a spent battery. They usually trot out that they don’t expect the car to last the life of the battery.

I've just priced one up for a full electric SUV for a middle market car brand. £12240 plus vat.

[normal rules]

I’ve asked a few car sales people about this recently just to wind them up. None of them will answer the important question, how much to replace a spent battery. They usually trot out that they don’t expect the car to last the life of the battery.

I've just priced one up for a full electric SUV for a middle market car brand. £12240 plus vat.

After 7 or 8 years that’s probably double what the car is actually worth, maybe more. Interestingly, it would probably make it an insurance write off. ?
In china they have cars that have a battery swap technology where a full battery Replace  takes around 5 mins.
Car manufacturers arent daft. They are greedy. They don’t want cars being re used. They want us to buy a new car. That’s why they build the battery so integral to the car that it’s cost prohibitive to replace it. car designers should incorporate a system whereby a battery could just be slid out from under the car easily. The market leaders like Vw or Tesla don’t seem to be incorporating this into their design.
There are companies in the us that supply brand new battery cells balanced and charged for old gen Toyota Prius.

[Axholme Lion]

I’ve asked a few car sales people about this recently just to wind them up. None of them will answer the important question, how much to replace a spent battery. They usually trot out that they don’t expect the car to last the life of the battery.

I've just priced one up for a full electric SUV for a middle market car brand. £12240 plus vat.

After 7 or 8 years that’s probably double what the car is actually worth, maybe more. Interestingly, it would probably make it an insurance write off. ?
In china they have cars that have a battery swap technology where a full battery Replace  takes around 5 mins.
Car manufacturers arent daft. They are greedy. They don’t want cars being re used. They want us to buy a new car. That’s why they build the battery so integral to the car that it’s cost prohibitive to replace it. car designers should incorporate a system whereby a battery could just be slid out from under the car easily. The market leaders like Vw or Tesla don’t seem to be incorporating this into their design.
There are companies in the us that supply brand new battery cells balanced and charged for old gen Toyota Prius.

IMO electric cars will only become a realistic option when you can go into a fuel station and swap an energy cell with 300 miles worth of power in it, but it would need all manufacturers to use the same system.

[Redandwhite]

 

The sooner we have electric cars and sever our dependence on overseas oil suppliers the better.

Just need to find a way to generate that electricity though.

If someone hadn't shut the pits down we'd be self-sufficient alongside renewable electricity.

[Axholme Lion]

The sooner we have electric cars and sever our dependence on overseas oil suppliers the better.

Just need to find a way to generate that electricity though.

If someone hadn't shut the pits down we'd be self-sufficient alongside renewable electricity.

Isn't a coal fired power station to charge an electric car defeating the object a bit?

[normal rules]

Digging up great swathes of the floor of the Pacific Ocean to mine for cobalt seems to defeat an objective or two also. Or enslaving children to work in open cast mines in south africa doing the same.
They won’t tell you this down the local Vw dealership though when you are signing up for a new id3.

[Glyn_Wigley]

The sooner we have electric cars and sever our dependence on overseas oil suppliers the better.

Just need to find a way to generate that electricity though.

If someone hadn't shut the pits down we'd be self-sufficient alongside renewable electricity.

Isn't a coal fired power station to charge an electric car defeating the object a bit?

Using this country's natural resources is much better for us economically than the electricity being produced by an oil fired power station where we're still beholden to foreign oil producers and their price hikes.

And it applies not just to electricity for cars but domestic use electricity too.

[Axholme Lion]

Digging up great swathes of the floor of the Pacific Ocean to mine for cobalt seems to defeat an objective or two also. Or enslaving children to work in open cast mines in south africa doing the same.
They won’t tell you this down the local Vw dealership though when you are signing up for a new id3.

Bang on. I can't understand why all these environmentalists aren't up in arms over this. Obviously they're happy for kids to mine the materials in the Congo.

[albie]

Some misguided ideas about batteries in this thread.

Expected EV battery life (excluding abuse) is way beyond the average lifespan of the vehicle.
Tesla reckon 20 years for the batteries, with minimal degradation over time;
https://insideevs.com/news/525820/tesla-battery-capacity-retention-90/

This is why the batteries have second use value as storage after the car is scrapped.
It is also why manufacturers offer extended warranty cover to their products.

On the point raised by RD, the tipping point has a defined term of reference, the "Osborne Effect".
https://cleantechnica.com/2021/08/10/when-do-fossil-fuel-car-sales-collapse/

Looking at the position from a static point in time does not capture the dynamic change in costs over the lifespan of the vehicle.

[normal rules]

The Vw ID range are only offering 70% battery capacity after 8 yrs. warranty of 8 yrs or 100,000 miles.
Many users of ev will clock up 100000 miles way before 8 yrs.
just look on eBay at the mileage of some ev already for sale.

[RobTheRover]

The low degredarion is usually due to the fact they don't charge to 100% battery capacity and they don't discharge to 0% either. By cycling the battery between 15%—85% there is little degredation.

[albie]

Yes, Rob...that's why I said about  "excluding abuse", to account for any who do not follow the instructions on use.

Given the average UK car does about 7500 miles per year, and that this is falling because of home working and changing commuting patterns, the VW warranty Normal talks about seems reasonable to me.

Don't forget the used EV's now on EBay and the like are a lower spec than the 2022 range to new buyers. If you are a high mileage business user, most would surely go down the leasing route.

People do like to fret about imaginary problems.

Range anxiety works on the basis that you run until the juice runs out.....would you do that with an ICE vehicle? 
Wait until empty, then get the can out and walk to the nearest petrol pump...thought not!

[BillyStubbsTears]

I fully take that on board Albie, but there's still the issue for millions of city dwellers like me, of how you charge when you only have on-street parking. I'd have an electric car or at least a PHEV tomorrow if there wasn't that drawback. As it is, I don't have charging points either at home or at work.

[big fat yorkshire pudding]

I fully take that on board Albie, but there's still the issue for millions of city dwellers like me, of how you charge when you only have on-street parking. I'd have an electric car or at least a PHEV tomorrow if there wasn't that drawback. As it is, I don't have charging points either at home or at work.

See I'm fortunate that I have a charger at home now and work are installing a huge amount at the office, it's a no brainer for employers as a cheap benefit to offer staff and tax free too.

I've a few friends who are exploring this in a work capacity. There's a few options of how to do it but the most likely is kerbstone installations, so you'd park up, plug in to the kerb where you park and all good. Likely a subscription basis too.  They are looking at how they can parallel with say underground TV cables or run from lamposts.  Unless a full post was installed right next to the road it wouldn't work at all.

[albie]

Supermarkets and Leisure centres, BST?
Tesco have a plan to roll out across their network.

Alternatively, put in your location;
https://www.zap-map.com/live/

[BillyStubbsTears]

Nearest publicly available ones to me are about 3 miles away which is about a 20-30 minute drive at peak times. They are at supermarkets that I rarely use, and which appear to have reliability issues according to reviews on that website.

As I say, in principle I am very keen to make this transition but at present we are woefully short of the infrastructure required to make this a no brainer. That's why I've taken the lame first step of a Prius, which I can eke 65-70mpg out of with a bit of care.

[BillyStubbsTears]

The irony is that a whole set of new street lights were installed on our road 3 years ago. My car is currently parked right next to the one straight outside our house. In a macroeconomic environment in which the UK Govt can sell 10-20 year bonds at negative real interest rates, it is stupid that we aren't investing in the fast roll out of incorporating chargers into that sort of infrastructure.

[River Don]

Yes at the moment the nearest charge point to us would be a supermarket carpark 3 miles away. It would require a cycle ride or bus journey. I wouldn't fancy leaving an expensive vehicle in a lonely carpark every night either.

Luckily for me charging wouldn't be a problem but it would for some around here. It's a semi rural village and the old part has plenty of houses in terraces with only on street parking available.

There are closer carparks but the infrastructure needs rolling out.

[Axholme Lion]

Yes, Rob...that's why I said about  "excluding abuse", to account for any who do not follow the instructions on use.

Given the average UK car does about 7500 miles per year, and that this is falling because of home working and changing commuting patterns, the VW warranty Normal talks about seems reasonable to me.

Don't forget the used EV's now on EBay and the like are a lower spec than the 2022 range to new buyers. If you are a high mileage business user, most would surely go down the leasing route.

People do like to fret about imaginary problems.

Range anxiety works on the basis that you run until the juice runs out.....would you do that with an ICE vehicle? 
Wait until empty, then get the can out and walk to the nearest petrol pump...thought not!

Don't people use their cars? There must be a lot out there who only use them once a week to make that the average. I do 10k just to get to work and back and i certainly see vehicles with much higher annual mileage at work.

[normal rules]

The only reason average mileage per car has gone down is because ownership of cars per household has gone up. So a family that did 15000 miles per year in their one car ( pretty average ) now does 7500 in their two cars.

[albie]

The only reason average mileage per car has gone down is because ownership of cars per household has gone up. So a family that did 15000 miles per year in their one car ( pretty average ) now does 7500 in their two cars.

That is certainly a factor, Normal Rules.
Why do you think it is the only reason?

Does the changing pattern of work and commuting not play a part?

For the purpose of this discussion, the point is whether batteries would need to be replaced early.
If more vehicles do fewer miles per annum, then the batteries in those cars will last longer, will they not?

[ravenrover]

I just can't for the life of me see the point of a plug in electric car. Surely a self charging makes more sense?

[big fat yorkshire pudding]

I just can't for the life of me see the point of a plug in electric car. Surely a self charging makes more sense?

Much more efficient, cheaper to run, longer range and use less fuel. Most plug ins do both aspects.

Also cheaper for company car drivers (tax based on battery miles, so a self charging car will be 3x the bik of a car that does 30 miles on electric only).

[Filo]

My gaffer has a Toyota Prius Hybrid, does 92mpg, it’s been back at Toyota for 2 weeks now with a fault, they can’t figure out whats wrong with it