Labour Support Required

[albie]

IndySage have a briefing on the minimum measures needed;
https://www.independentsage.org/emergency-statement-on-omicron-15-december-2021/

This is what Boris/Keith should have been saying, not looking to out drivel each other.

[big fat yorkshire pudding]

IndySage have a briefing on the minimum measures needed;
https://www.independentsage.org/emergency-statement-on-omicron-15-december-2021/

This is what Boris/Keith should have been saying, not looking to out drivel each other.

They also said we'd have 100k cases per day after the ending of restrictions. They were wrong.  At the moment there is little evidence to agree with what they are saying.

The crux is this, we are largely in a similar place to we were when covid first appeared that we don't know what will happen as we don't have enough cases to tell us how bad it affects people. Unlike then we have knowledge of covid, vaccines and stronger treatment.

If we do what independent sage wants it destroys businesses.  This was the problem when making the original decisions and is the same now. Is it severe enough to justify that? It's so hard to tell. South African experiences may suggest not.  This virus may well now be on its way to being comparable to flu, bad for some but overall manageable.  Equally can we guarantee the severity is better than delta?  Not yet.

[BillyStubbsTears]

BFYP.

There is absolutely no reason why it should destroy businesses.

Remember when Sunak said he'd "do what it takes"? Somewhere along the line that changed to "Protect the deficit and if tens of thousands die, tough shite."

It doesn't have to be that way. That's a policy choice. Remember that as the deaths start climbing.

[roversdude]

In the figures how many cases of flu have been recorded

[BillyStubbsTears]

Let's be absolutely clear what the Govt policy is.

They are choosing not to lockdown. Partly because the swivel-eyed backwoodsmen won't wear it. Partly because Sunak doesn't want to pay for it. Partly because Johnson has staked his credibility on "No more lockdowns".

So they are letting the virus rip through us. And banking on the booster campaign to blunt the virus. But they've said themselves that we need to vaccinate 1million per day between now and New Year to cover the adult population. And we have only vaccinatred 1.5million in the first 3 days since the new policy was announced.

I say "only". This is a phenomenal achievement. But it's way below the required rate. And even if we DO get up to speed, the booster takes 2-3weeks to become fully effective. Whereas at the moment, we are looking like seeing the height of this wave well before then.

Remember, this is a chosen policy. They are choosing to not have lockdowns. They are choosing to hope that the vaccines do enough.

[big fat yorkshire pudding]

BFYP.

There is absolutely no reason why it should destroy businesses.

Remember when Sunak said he'd "do what it takes"? Somewhere along the line that changed to "Protect the deficit and if tens of thousands die, tough shite."

It doesn't have to be that way. That's a policy choice. Remember that as the deaths start climbing.

Absolutely disagree there's many reasons why it can and will. The treasury can't cover every eventuality.

I'll give you an example, our football club.  I seriously question if they can survive another period without fans.  Bang goes the transfer window for a start and a relegation that may have been avoidable is highly likely. That has a huge long term impact.

The business I work for is in a pretty good place to handle it, but not many will be in the position we are, the pub down the road, hospitality venues etc just cannot cope with it.

[BillyStubbsTears]

BFYP.

Govt can do what it wants if it has the will. They could give grants to every business in the country to allow them to close down from now to mid-Jan, giving time for a proper booster programme to take effect.

All that is required is the will. They are choosing not to do that.

And look at it this way. How many people are going to go to the pub or to the Rovers when this thing peaks?

[big fat yorkshire pudding]

BFYP.

Govt can do what it wants if it has the will. They could give grants to every business in the country to allow them to close down from now to mid-Jan, giving time for a proper booster programme to take effect.

All that is required is the will. They are choosing not to do that.

And look at it this way. How many people are going to go to the pub or to the Rovers when this thing peaks?

But that still does harm doesn't it? What do these grants do? Do they make up for potentially hundreds of millions in lost sales for big businesses and the profit from that which is planned to invest, pay debt etc etc?  No they won't do that and nor could they. Are they going to give football clubs enough to make up for 75000 fans not coming through the turnstiles in the case of man utd, 6000 at Doncaster?  No they won't so there is harm there isn't there?

[albie]

Pud,

I think you are missing the point that the NHS will be rapidly overwhelmed, and unable to cope.

You cannot base policy on an assumption that the epidemic will be less problematic IF it causes fewer deaths because of reduced severity.

The proper response is to assume a damaging impact, and mitigate to the maximum, until better evidence of trajectory emerges, across a range of metrics.

The idea that you can net off potential economic effects against health outcomes is a false consideration. The UK can afford to compensate for loss of earnings, and policies could recoup some of that outlay over time such as a wealth tax, or steeper rates on existing tax instruments.

It is shameful that the debate has ignored these options.

[roversdude]

Another lockdown would in my opinion see an awful lot of non compliance particularly after the blatant behaviour of the government.
It’s accepted that covid will be around for years so where do we draw the line

[normal rules]

Some members of the govt have been irresponsible, so let’s all be irresponsible, shall we?

Surely we are better than this?

History shows that the British Army has had its fair share of poor leaders, but it did not necessarily make the whole army poor. Nor should it.

I believe, on the whole, the British public will continue to fight, and do the right thing.
It’s what we do in this country.
I have faith in this.

[BillyStubbsTears]

That sums it up NR. People WILL do the right thing. Except this time, the Govt is washing its hands of financial support.

Johnson today saying that he's not banning social events but asking people to think about whether they should attend is a hammer blow to the hospitality sector. He did the same thing in mid March 2020 before being forced by events. I can see us following the same path this time. Reacting too late instead of acting.