Omicron

[normal rules]

We question the veracity of information being provided by our own government . It’s only right we do the same of SA.

[kirk]

1st Omicron death just announced

Yesterday they didn’t even know how many are in hospital due to it or came in unrelated.

[ColinDouglasHandshake]

Sky news claiming that Omicron is infecting over 200,000 each day in UK.

What they fail to mention is that so was Delta.

The daily case numbers are only of those TESTED. To get the actual true case numbers in the UK, you'd have to test everybody every day. There are people with no symptoms or mild symptoms who don't think anything of it and don't get tested, but they may have Covid.

We probably already had 200k cases daily anyway for months and months.

[BillyStubbsTears]

Delta was never infecting more than about 80k pet day.

And if Sky are saying Omicron IS infecting 200k a day, they are wrong. It's more like 10k.

It WILL be 200k per day, very likely, by the New Year.

[ColinDouglasHandshake]

Nobody knows accurately how many cases there are a day because the entire population don't test every day. I could have Covid right now and not know it and not test.

[BillyStubbsTears]

The Zoe project is able to come up with good estimates. They topped out at around 80k with Delta. There is simply no way Omicron is currently infecting 200k per day.

[ColinDouglasHandshake]

The Zoe project is able to come up with good estimates. They topped out at around 80k with Delta. There is simply no way Omicron is currently infecting 200k per day.

Estimates like the ones that Prof Neil Ferguson and SAGE like to use you mean? 

[BillyStubbsTears]

No.
Those are modelling predictions of future trends. The Zoe estimate is based on current data.

[BillyStubbsTears]

CDH.

I've found out where that Sky claim about 200k cases per day comes from.

Sajid Javid today in Parliament.

"There are now 4,713 confirmed cases of Omicron in the UK.

And the UK Health Security Agency estimates that the current number of daily infections are around 200,000."

Except the UKHSA didn't estimate that. It is a simply ridiculous thing for any politician with an ounce of credibility to say.

Just think about it. If there are only 4000 cases confirmed in the UK, but 200k new cases per day, that would imply that we are picking up fewer than 1 in 50 cases. It is arrant nonsense. But it comes from the same man who said that vaccinations had reduced the death rate to 1/180 of what it was before. When the actual figure was about 1/7th.

These are really, really second rate intellects. Inventing numbers or simply incapable of understanding what numbers mean. And they are apparently running the f**king country.

[DonnyOsmond]

If it is more infectious and a hell of a lot less fatal then that's brilliant news. If it's severity is that minor we can potentially go with herd immunity, but we would still need some restrictions in place during that so that the hospitals aren't overwhelmed.

[albie]

Hospital bed occupancy at 94% in the UK at present.

Very close to an unmanageable position once staff start to go down with infections.

[BillyStubbsTears]

CDH.

I've found out where that Sky claim about 200k cases per day comes from.

Sajid Javid today in Parliament.

"There are now 4,713 confirmed cases of Omicron in the UK.

And the UK Health Security Agency estimates that the current number of daily infections are around 200,000."

Except the UKHSA didn't estimate that. It is a simply ridiculous thing for any politician with an ounce of credibility to say.

Just think about it. If there are only 4000 cases confirmed in the UK, but 200k new cases per day, that would imply that we are picking up fewer than 1 in 50 cases. It is arrant nonsense. But it comes from the same man who said that vaccinations had reduced the death rate to 1/180 of what it was before. When the actual figure was about 1/7th.

These are really, really second rate intellects. Inventing numbers or simply incapable of understanding what numbers mean. And they are apparently running the f**king country.

OK. Hands up from me. I totally take this back. It looks like I've  made a very serious error of judgement.

I was thinking of the number of people symptomatic today.

But there's a delay between getting infected and  developing symptoms and testing +ve.

If cases really are doubling every 2-3 days, it is totally plausible that there might have been 200k people infected today. It's just that they won't show up in the test numbers for another week or so.

If that's the case then God help us. This wave is coming like an express train.

And if that IS the case then I totally withdraw my argument with Albie. If the cases really are that high already, I fully agree that serious, responsible politicians need to be screaming about it now.

I thought we had another week or two of time. Looks like we probably don't.

When you call it wrong, you put your hand up and admit it. I think I've called this one wrong. Although God knows I hope that's not the case.

If it really is as bad as this already, and if  the Govt knows that to be the case, expanding the booster programme without a hard lockdown NOW is going to do next to nothing.

[SydneyRover]

looks like 200,000 is the number (est)

''The NHS was put on a crisis footing tonight as hospitals in England were told to discharge as many patients as possible while estimated daily Omicron cases hit 200,000 and the variant claimed its first life in the UK.

Amid a scramble for tests and booster jabs, the country’s doctors called for further restrictions to be imposed to stem the rise in cases and Downing Street did not rule out fresh measures''

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/dec/13/covid-nhs-in-crisis-mode-as-hospitals-told-to-discharge-patients-where-possible

[DonnyOsmond]

CDH.

I've found out where that Sky claim about 200k cases per day comes from.

Sajid Javid today in Parliament.

"There are now 4,713 confirmed cases of Omicron in the UK.

And the UK Health Security Agency estimates that the current number of daily infections are around 200,000."

Except the UKHSA didn't estimate that. It is a simply ridiculous thing for any politician with an ounce of credibility to say.

Just think about it. If there are only 4000 cases confirmed in the UK, but 200k new cases per day, that would imply that we are picking up fewer than 1 in 50 cases. It is arrant nonsense. But it comes from the same man who said that vaccinations had reduced the death rate to 1/180 of what it was before. When the actual figure was about 1/7th.

These are really, really second rate intellects. Inventing numbers or simply incapable of understanding what numbers mean. And they are apparently running the f**king country.

OK. Hands up from me. I totally take this back. It looks like I've  made a very serious error of judgement.

I was thinking of the number of people symptomatic today.

But there's a delay between getting infected and  developing symptoms and testing +ve.

If cases really are doubling every 2-3 days, it is totally plausible that there might have been 200k people infected today. It's just that they won't show up in the test numbers for another week or so.

If that's the case then God help us. This wave is coming like an express train.

And if that IS the case then I totally withdraw my argument with Albie. If the cases really are that high already, I fully agree that serious, responsible politicians need to be screaming about it now.

I thought we had another week or two of time. Looks like we probably don't.

When you call it wrong, you put your hand up and admit it. I think I've called this one wrong. Although God knows I hope that's not the case.

If it really is as bad as this already, and if  the Govt knows that to be the case, expanding the booster programme without a hard lockdown NOW is going to do next to nothing.

Do we know what that is? Asking as someone who is currently self isolating who's wife is positive, I'm currently testing negative and I am keeping away from her since. Her symptoms started Saturday, tested positive on Sunday.

[BillyStubbsTears]

5-8 days is what I've seen.

[drfchound]

CDH.

I've found out where that Sky claim about 200k cases per day comes from.

Sajid Javid today in Parliament.

"There are now 4,713 confirmed cases of Omicron in the UK.

And the UK Health Security Agency estimates that the current number of daily infections are around 200,000."

Except the UKHSA didn't estimate that. It is a simply ridiculous thing for any politician with an ounce of credibility to say.

Just think about it. If there are only 4000 cases confirmed in the UK, but 200k new cases per day, that would imply that we are picking up fewer than 1 in 50 cases. It is arrant nonsense. But it comes from the same man who said that vaccinations had reduced the death rate to 1/180 of what it was before. When the actual figure was about 1/7th.

These are really, really second rate intellects. Inventing numbers or simply incapable of understanding what numbers mean. And they are apparently running the f**king country.

OK. Hands up from me. I totally take this back. It looks like I've  made a very serious error of judgement.

I was thinking of the number of people symptomatic today.

But there's a delay between getting infected and  developing symptoms and testing +ve.

If cases really are doubling every 2-3 days, it is totally plausible that there might have been 200k people infected today. It's just that they won't show up in the test numbers for another week or so.

If that's the case then God help us. This wave is coming like an express train.

And if that IS the case then I totally withdraw my argument with Albie. If the cases really are that high already, I fully agree that serious, responsible politicians need to be screaming about it now.

I thought we had another week or two of time. Looks like we probably don't.

When you call it wrong, you put your hand up and admit it. I think I've called this one wrong. Although God knows I hope that's not the case.

If it really is as bad as this already, and if  the Govt knows that to be the case, expanding the booster programme without a hard lockdown NOW is going to do next to nothing.

Fair enough BST, you have admirably withdrawn your comment about the numbers.
But if you hadn’t added that last sentence in the first post then people would probably take you more seriously if you weren’t  turning everything into a government bashing enterprise.

[Bentley Bullet]

CDH.

I've found out where that Sky claim about 200k cases per day comes from.

Sajid Javid today in Parliament.

"There are now 4,713 confirmed cases of Omicron in the UK.

And the UK Health Security Agency estimates that the current number of daily infections are around 200,000."

Except the UKHSA didn't estimate that. It is a simply ridiculous thing for any politician with an ounce of credibility to say.

Just think about it. If there are only 4000 cases confirmed in the UK, but 200k new cases per day, that would imply that we are picking up fewer than 1 in 50 cases. It is arrant nonsense. But it comes from the same man who said that vaccinations had reduced the death rate to 1/180 of what it was before. When the actual figure was about 1/7th.

These are really, really second rate intellects. Inventing numbers or simply incapable of understanding what numbers mean. And they are apparently running the f**king country.

OK. Hands up from me. I totally take this back. It looks like I've  made a very serious error of judgement.

I was thinking of the number of people symptomatic today.

But there's a delay between getting infected and  developing symptoms and testing +ve.

If cases really are doubling every 2-3 days, it is totally plausible that there might have been 200k people infected today. It's just that they won't show up in the test numbers for another week or so.

If that's the case then God help us. This wave is coming like an express train.

And if that IS the case then I totally withdraw my argument with Albie. If the cases really are that high already, I fully agree that serious, responsible politicians need to be screaming about it now.

I thought we had another week or two of time. Looks like we probably don't.

When you call it wrong, you put your hand up and admit it. I think I've called this one wrong. Although God knows I hope that's not the case.

If it really is as bad as this already, and if  the Govt knows that to be the case, expanding the booster programme without a hard lockdown NOW is going to do next to nothing.

Fair enough BST, you have admirably withdrawn your comment about the numbers.
But if you hadn’t added that last sentence in the first post then people would probably take you more seriously if you weren’t  turning everything into a government bashing enterprise.

The thing is, BST makes mistakes and we accept that, but when the government makes mistakes BST only accepts them as lies.

[ColinDouglasHandshake]

The hospitalisations and deaths from Omicron are really starting to pick up pace now...........

[BillyStubbsTears]

BB.

A mistake not corrected effectively becomes a lie. It's not hard to understand.

[Axholme Lion]

The hospitalisations and deaths from Omicron are really starting to pick up pace now...........

Scaremongering of the highest order. All that's needed is a sensible approach and actions, not national hysteria and panic.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wMykYSQaG_c

[BillyStubbsTears]

The hospitalisations and deaths from Omicron are really starting to pick up pace now...........

Scaremongering of the highest order. All that's needed is a sensible approach and actions, not national hysteria and panic.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wMykYSQaG_c

Here's a deal. Make a note to come back on 1 Feb and tel us what you think then.

[ColinDouglasHandshake]

The hospitalisations and deaths from Omicron are really starting to pick up pace now...........

Scaremongering of the highest order. All that's needed is a sensible approach and actions, not national hysteria and panic.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wMykYSQaG_c

Here's a deal. Make a note to come back on 1 Feb and tel us what you think then.

Well, for such a highly transmissible and dangerous strain, it is sure taking it's time to wreak maximum havoc.

[Axholme Lion]

The hospitalisations and deaths from Omicron are really starting to pick up pace now...........

Scaremongering of the highest order. All that's needed is a sensible approach and actions, not national hysteria and panic.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wMykYSQaG_c

Here's a deal. Make a note to come back on 1 Feb and tel us what you think then.

That's ok. I stand by my words, a sensible approach and actions not government sponsored hysteria and panic. I will get my booster jab (providing my pre booked appointment hasn't been gazumped by a twenty year old), wear a mask in shops, sanitze my hands regularly, keep my distance from people as far as i realistically can and continue to live my life as long as everything hasn't been closed down. I refuse to be thrown into a frenzy over this. If everyone did as i suggest there would be no need for OTT restrictions.

[BillyStubbsTears]

The hospitalisations and deaths from Omicron are really starting to pick up pace now...........

Scaremongering of the highest order. All that's needed is a sensible approach and actions, not national hysteria and panic.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wMykYSQaG_c

Here's a deal. Make a note to come back on 1 Feb and tel us what you think then.

Well, for such a highly transmissible and dangerous strain, it is sure taking it's time to wreak maximum havoc.

How many times?

People don't drop dead the moment they catch COVID.

When there are 2000 people a day going into hospital with Omicron, and 200 a day dying of it, will you come back and apologise?

And those are the very lowest figures we can expect to see over the next few weeks. If the rub of the green goes against us, the numbers could be 3-4 times higher.

[ColinDouglasHandshake]

The hospitalisations and deaths from Omicron are really starting to pick up pace now...........

Scaremongering of the highest order. All that's needed is a sensible approach and actions, not national hysteria and panic.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wMykYSQaG_c

Here's a deal. Make a note to come back on 1 Feb and tel us what you think then.

Well, for such a highly transmissible and dangerous strain, it is sure taking it's time to wreak maximum havoc.

How many times?

People don't drop dead the moment they catch COVID.

When there are 2000 people a day going into hospital with Omicron, and 200 a day dying of it, will you come back and apologise?

And those are the very lowest figures we can expect to see over the next few weeks. If the rub of the green goes against us, the numbers could be 3-4 times higher.

It's been around for about 4 weeks that we know of.

Maybe the reason why the South Africans are doing so well is Rooibos Tea?

I have a cup of organic rooibos every day for years and i've now just read a scientific paper that suggests it works amazingly well as an anti viral due to various compounds in it, one called aspalathin that is only found in the leaves of the redbush plant and nowhere else of earth. It also enhances the immune system.

Just a thought given that nobody in Government or science or the NHS ever talks about natural ways to avoid becoming ill with Covid other than boosters.

[ColinDouglasHandshake]

Also have coconut oil. It contains monolaurin which gets converted into lauric acid and is one of the most powerful anti virals out there. It helps disable the viral envelope so that your immune cells can enter the viral barrier and get at the virus cells before the virus gets a chance to heavily replicate.

[BillyStubbsTears]

Yes. In very small amounts initially.

Assume 1% of people who catch it will die 20 days after catching it. Assume it's doubling every three days. Then as a rough guide, you'd need to wait 20 days after 100 people had caught it to expect to see a death.

From one case to 100 cases is 6.5 doublings. So that's about 3 weeks. Then another three weeks before the death.

So we shouldn't be expecting many deaths yet.

But if it doubles every three days, three weeks after the first death, there are 100 deaths. Three weeks after that there are 10,000.

If you are going to pontificate on this, you need to apply your brain very hard to the numbers. It's not easy and it's not something you can do by gut instinct. Exponential grow with delays is terrifyingly deceptive.

[ColinDouglasHandshake]

So Billy, what makes you think that the SAGE and NERVTAG lot who have got every prediction based on modelling frighteningly incorrect so far during this pandemic that they are right this time?

There is currently no evidence that suggests the new variant will cause this amount of destruction.

It may cause massive numbers of infections but isn't it about time that those advising the Government finally learned that infections are not the issue - deaths and hospitalizations are. I don't mean hospitalizations in terms of someone just being given a bit of oxygen and sent home either. I mean actual people being admitted to wards for Covid, which is an entirely different stat.

[BillyStubbsTears]

They haven't got every stage wrong. If you're going to talk ignorant books like that, you're not worth wasting time on.

[ColinDouglasHandshake]

They are wrong. All the time. Like they are with Omicron.