The Great Escape

[Campsall rover]

Next 4 games will be defining imo.

I honestly think we need 3 wins from them or we will need to do too much from the last 6

But as I keep saying, what do I know. 

[BillyStubbsTears]

Another indication of how historically bad the bottom end of this division is. You have to go up to 8th bottom before you find a side whose season average PPG would just get them to 50 points over 46 games.

[Silkscarf]

Next 4 games will be defining imo.

I honestly think we need 3 wins from them or we will need to do too much from the last 6

But as I keep saying, what do I know. 

It doesn't matter which games the points come from. It would be nice to get 2 or more wins on the bounce from the next ones, but we don't have to do that. Luckily all the other teams around us are rubbish as well.

The bald fact is we are effectively 5 points from safety (given the irretrievably poor GD) with 10 games left. We can do it.

[BillyStubbsTears]

Not sure what formula your using BST. 43 points would be one of lowest ever for 20th place.

As long as we finish above 4 teams that all that matters.

I'm projecting through the form over the last 10 games to the end of the season. And I agree, it seems like a very low set of final points. But it has generally been accurate to within a point or two in previous seasons. No guarantee it will work this year, but it's been giving broadly consistent predictions now for the past 3 weeks.

[les@donr]

Given our league position draws aren't going to get us out of the relegation zone, wins will only enable the great escape.

[Campsall rover]

Next 4 games will be defining imo.

I honestly think we need 3 wins from them or we will need to do too much from the last 6

But as I keep saying, what do I know. 

It doesn't matter which games the points come from. It would be nice to get 2 or more wins on the bounce from the next ones, but we don't have to do that. Luckily all the other teams around us are rubbish as well.

The bald fact is we are effectively 5 points from safety (given the irretrievably poor GD) with 10 games left. We can do it.

You say all the other teams around us are rubbish.  Did you see the results yesterday.

Crewe won away at Burton, Gillingham won away at Lincoln, Morecambe drew at home to Ipswich, Fleetwood drew away at Pompey. So while I agree there are some very average well below average teams in this league they are all capable of surprise results. None of those yesterday will have been predicted.

Gillingham same as us have improved recently. Harris has got them picking up points now which is a big concern for us.
We have to beat them at home in our next home game. Think that will be a certainty. Fleetwood can we win at Highbury. We have not done it yet. This season it is looking like a must win.

That draw yesterday was not a disaster as a defeat would have been but 2 points dropped may prove very costly. We really needed to win, with those other results yesterday.

We keep going, keep the faith, give our 100% support and who knows. I certainly have not thrown in the towel, we could pull it off but the odds are stacked against.

If we do pull off the great escape then GM should be given the freedom of Doncaster.

[graingrover]

Form: Last 10 matches
        GP   W   D   L   GF   GA   GD   Pts   Opponents PPG
1   Rotherham   10   8   1   1   16   2   +14   25   1.26   

2   Milton Keynes   10   7   2   1   13   5   +8   23   1.39   

3   Bolton   10   7   1   2   23   10   +13   22   1.36   

4   Sheffield Wed   10   7   0   3   17   9   +8   21   1.48   

5   Oxford Utd   10   6   1   3   25   16   +9   19   1.35   

6   Ipswich Town   10   5   3   2   10   5   +5   18   1.25   

7   Wigan Athletic   10   5   3   2   14   11   +3   18   1.39   

8   Cambridge Utd   10   5   2   3   14   11   +3   17   1.22   

9   Plymouth   10   5   1   4   18   14   +4   16   1.35   

10   Doncaster   10   4   1   5   10   19   -9   13   1.46   

[Janso]

Massive shame about that goal line block.

[Campsall rover]

Massive shame about that goal line block.

Good job Mitchell made his though. 

[pib]

Given our league position draws aren't going to get us out of the relegation zone, wins will only enable the great escape.

That’s true, but if we can draw games we would’ve otherwise got beat in (like yesterday), that will help us too.

Look at the table. We’ve won the most games out of all the teams in the bottom 6 and only 1 less than Cheltenham in 15th. If we’d picked up a few more draws instead of defeats we’d be in with much more of a chance.

One positive is we seem to be failing to score a lot less which gives you more of a chance.

[Campsall rover]

Given our league position draws aren't going to get us out of the relegation zone, wins will only enable the great escape.

That’s true, but if we can draw games we would’ve otherwise got beat in (like yesterday), that will help us too.

Look at the table. We’ve won the most games out of all the teams in the bottom 6 and only 1 less than Cheltenham in 15th. If we’d picked up a few more draws instead of defeats we’d be in with much more of a chance.

One positive is we seem to be failing to score a lot less which gives you more of a chance.

Think the facts are ( well not facts ) but 95% likely is we will need another 15 points min. That’s 5 wins or 4 wins and 3 draws.
Personally my guess is 45 points required due to inferior goal difference. So 5 wins and 1 draw or 4 wins and 4 draws.
It a huge ask but with some of the games against relegation rivals not impossible.

[Dutch Uncle]

Form: Last 10 matches
        GP   W   D   L   GF   GA   GD   Pts   Opponents PPG
1   Rotherham   10   8   1   1   16   2   +14   25   1.26   

2   Milton Keynes   10   7   2   1   13   5   +8   23   1.39   

3   Bolton   10   7   1   2   23   10   +13   22   1.36   

4   Sheffield Wed   10   7   0   3   17   9   +8   21   1.48   

5   Oxford Utd   10   6   1   3   25   16   +9   19   1.35   

6   Ipswich Town   10   5   3   2   10   5   +5   18   1.25   

7   Wigan Athletic   10   5   3   2   14   11   +3   18   1.39   

8   Cambridge Utd   10   5   2   3   14   11   +3   17   1.22   

9   Plymouth   10   5   1   4   18   14   +4   16   1.35   

10   Doncaster   10   4   1   5   10   19   -9   13   1.46   

Interesting that only Wednesday have played against opposition with a higher ppg than us, I.e. we are 10th in that table having played against an averagely better opposition than nearly everyone else.

[Colemans Left Hook]

And to top it off,Bolton just equalised in added time to make the gap 8pts now

cant believe that  they scored in the 14th minute of 17 minutes injury time you don't realise how significant that Bolton goal will be (yes we might forgive Bolton for their antics if we stay up)

i presumed WIMBLEDON  MORECAMBE HAD WON

I HAVE BEEN SAYING FOR YONKS AND YONKS 43 POINTS MIGHT BE ENOUGH TO STAY UP   --- SEEN IT ALL BEFORE  --

A DRAW IS OK ON TUESDAY ... As the "radio-active" shocking decay of Wimbledon continues

time to try and drum it into your heads once more that 43 points might be enough to stay up

https://www.thefishy.co.uk/leaguetable.php?table=3&season=9

[Campsall rover]

And to top it off,Bolton just equalised in added time to make the gap 8pts now

cant believe that  they scored in the 14th minute of 17 minutes injury time you don't realise how significant that Bolton goal will be (yes we might forgive Bolton for their antics if we stay up)

i presumed WIMBLEDON  MORECAMBE HAD WON

I HAVE BEEN SAYING FOR YONKS AND YONKS 43 POINTS MIGHT BE ENOUGH TO STAY UP   --- SEEN IT ALL BEFORE  --

A DRAW IS OK ON TUESDAY ... As the "radio-active" shocking decay of Wimbledon continues

time to try and drum it into your heads once more that 43 points might be enough to stay up

https://www.thefishy.co.uk/leaguetable.php?table=3&season=9

MIGHT

[foxbat]

and we gave to actually get the 43 points

[BobG]

And God has decreed 43 points will be enough. Thanks God.

BobG

[Sammy Chung was King]

We will stay up with 42 points.

[Campsall rover]

We will stay up with 42 points.

It’s not impossible SCK but very unlikely.
Don’t forget we need an extra point to the team finishising 21st because of our goal difference. 

[Sammy Chung was King]

I know, Campsall. I just think even with that goal difference ,we win more regularly than the teams around us, this will keep us up.

Crewe are as poor as it gets at this level, they will go. Gillingham, Neil Harris or not will also go. Wimbledon will be relegated too. Teams like Lincoln and Shrewsbury will be drawn into the fight to stay up, but Fleetwood will be the final ones to drop through the trap door.
We will stay up by a point.

I see Crewe rock bottom on thirty one points, Gillingham on thirty eight, Wimbledon on thirty nine. Fleetwood on forty one points, Then us fifth bottom and just safe on forty two.

[Campsall rover]

I know, Campsall. I just think even with that goal difference ,we win more regularly than the teams around us, this will keep us up.

Crewe are as poor as it gets at this level, they will go. Gillingham, Neil Harris or not will also go. Wimbledon will be relegated too. Teams like Lincoln and Shrewsbury will be drawn into the fight to stay up, but Fleetwood will be the final ones to drop through the trap door.
We will stay up by a point.

I see Crewe rock bottom on thirty one points, Gillingham on thirty eight, Wimbledon on thirty nine. Fleetwood on forty one points, Then us fifth bottom and just safe on forty two.

I think you have well underestimated the points totals. We will see.

[rich1471]

I think if any club is to get out of the bottom 4 it will be Gillingham come the end of the season ,they have 11 points from a possible 21

[dickos1]

I think if any club is to get out of the bottom 4 it will be Gillingham come the end of the season ,they have 11 points from a possible 21

That’s only one point more than us

[Campsall rover]

I think if any club is to get out of the bottom 4 it will be Gillingham come the end of the season ,they have 11 points from a possible 21

If we beat them I predict we will finish above them. I think very good chance of us or Gills will stay up, possibly both.

[pigeonhole]

And to top it off,Bolton just equalised in added time to make the gap 8pts now

cant believe that  they scored in the 14th minute of 17 minutes injury time you don't realise how significant that Bolton goal will be (yes we might forgive Bolton for their antics if we stay up)

i presumed WIMBLEDON  MORECAMBE HAD WON

I HAVE BEEN SAYING FOR YONKS AND YONKS 43 POINTS MIGHT BE ENOUGH TO STAY UP   --- SEEN IT ALL BEFORE  --

A DRAW IS OK ON TUESDAY ... As the "radio-active" shocking decay of Wimbledon continues

time to try and drum it into your heads once more that 43 points might be enough to stay up

https://www.thefishy.co.uk/leaguetable.php?table=3&season=9

The table you linked to shows that 43 points wasn't enough to stay up. 

[selby]

  Some of our better injured players coming back to fitness combined with the January signings give our match day squad a different look.
  It looks much stronger in the midfield area, and in defence with Anderson, and in fact looks  more like a top half team with the right men coming back to fitness. If they all pull together and  play for the team and perform I see no reason why we cannot at least end the season strongly, especially with other teams having games  more than ourselves in midweek and could possibly pick up an injury or two.
   On the flip side Rowe staying fit for the majority of the games is a must, he gives us a threat going forward nobody else really does.

[since-1969]

I’d take this !!

[drfchound]

I think we all would.

[drfchound]

Fleetwood losing.

[les@donr]

Still on

[Silkscarf]

It's still possible. The GD is irrelevant and has been for a while. Forget that one and focus on beating the Gills. Next Saturday at 5pm the table could look radically different.

Easy for me to say sat at home I know, so well done to all who went. It sounded shockingly poor.

But the facts are that we are effectively 5 points from safety with 27 to play for.