A very very sobering thought.

[normal rules]

I hope this conflict remains on a conventional footing. And I certainly hope NATO keeps their nose out of any direct military action.

I had a quick look at the prospect and outcomes of the unthinkable.
If the madman Putin was pushed into a corner and decided to hit out with ultimate force. Something he has already alluded to.

A single Tsar Bomba strike on London, which Russia is wholly capable of, would eliminate the whole city. This could possibly kill 5.7 million people and injure a further 3.4 million.

If the same bomb was dropped on birmingham, it could kill 2.4 million, and the blast would give people in Leicester, Stoke and Nottingham third degree burns.

Then there is the affect on the climate and eco systems. Utterly destroyed.

Forget global warming. We would be heading for nuclear winters. For those unlucky enough to survive.

Very very disturbing stuff. The stuff of nightmares.  And then some.

2 bombs would render the whole of the uk unliveable, and no longer able to function as a country or sustain life. We would simply cease to exist on the world map.
We must do everything we can to avoid this scenario .

[IDM]

If Putin does that then it’s the end of the world.  Unless they have developed means of stopping western powers launching retaliatory strikes then as soon as they start playing nuclear silly buggers then the west will hit back, and everyone loses.

It’s called mutually assured destruction, derived in the darkest days of the Cold War.

It’s also why nuclear weapons should be seen as a deterrent that would never actually be used.

[normal rules]

And despite films and stories about such, we have no anti ICBM defence system.
Our only defence is the deterrent we possess. Which is the bare minimum.
If a nuclear missile was launched on London, its just 20 minutes to oblivion.
We may not even be in a position to respond. Although I’m sure the US would.
The numbers are mind boggling and equally worrying.
Russia have 6255 warheads
USA have 5550
China have 350
France have 290
Uk have 225
Pakistan have 165
India 156
Israel 90
North Korea 40 ( allegedly)

[Axholme Lion]

Which once again shows why the West should have listened to him over the years and avoided the whole situation. But know we had to play Billy big balls and roll up to his doorstep waving our toys around. The EU, US and NATO are as much responsible for this as Russia.

[BillyStubbsTears]

Tsar Bomba was the end of an insane process of dick waving. It was never feasible to deliver anything of that size to even a vaguely defended target.

Plus, the scaling principle of blast means that you don't get 1000 times the effect by having a bomb 1000 times bigger. In the grim maths of explosive efficiency, if you want to do the most widespread damage, you are far better off delivering 1000 light, easily deployable  bombs of 1/1000th the size, over an area.

And that's how nuclear strategy has gone. Tsar Bomba was 3000 times the size of the Hiroshima bomb. But the real worry about any nuclear conflict is that both sides have the capability to deliver hundreds, if not thousands of devices from 1-50 times the size of the Hiroshima bomb onto hundreds or thousands of sites on the enemy homeland.
.and before that, each side has the capability to deliver a similar number of smaller devices against the enemy's battlefield units, if a conventional war is going the wrong way.

What had always scared the shite out of me is that, at the bottom line, the only thing that stops either side using battlefield tactical nukes is the sanity of the politicians and military commanders.

We know from records that there were military commanders in the USA who wanted to use battlefield nukes in Korea, in Cuba and in Vietnam. They were only held in check by the sanity of other commanders and politicians. I assume similar discussions were had in the Soviet Union over Afghanistan.

And that is the reason why there must never, ever be a direct shooting match between NATO and Russia. Because if either side looks like losing badly, the pressure to salvage the situation by using battlefield nukes may become too great to control. And then the danger of that spiralling into more widespread use of nukes is enormous.

During the Cuban Missile Crisis, the grand old man of American strategy, Dean Acheson was brought in to advise Kennedy. Kennedy wanted to know what would happen if America bombed the Soviet bases in Cuba.

Acheson said he reckoned the Soviet Union would have to respond in kind by taking out an American nuclear missile site in Turkey - the nearest equivalent.

Kennedy asked him what America should then do. Acheson said that would constitute an attack on a NATO country, so America was duty bound to attack a Soviet base (all conventional attacks at this point).

Kennedy said "What happens then?)

Acheson went quiet then said "Then we have to hope that cool heads prevail in the Kremlin."

It was precisely that logic that stopped Kennedy launching a military attack on Cuba. And it shows why it would be insane for NATO to get involved in Ukraine.

But it also shows why it is so dangerous for Putin to then try military action against NATO members like the Baltics. The entire Russian command structure has to be told unequivocally what the consequences of that would be. If they think there is any possibility whatsoever of America being bluffed into accepting an attack on a NATO country, we are in a terrifying situation, where Putin might gamble. And then America might not step down but might fight back. And then God alone knows what happens.

[BobG]

It gets even worse Billy.

What do you think the Chinese are pondering right this very moment?

What are Moldova and the Baltic states going to do as fast as they possibly can?

Nato and the West is in an impossible bind already. Fight and we risk WW3. Don't fight and we open the door to two pugnacious, increasingly capricious and avaricious strong men who, once they start, simply have to win or face revolution or a military coup at home.

The best anyone can hope for now is that the Ukrainians follow the path trod by the Mujahadin in the 1980s. And that would lead to 10 years of guerilla conflict, financed by the Americans and fought by the Russians and Ukrainians. In the meanwhile, Cold War 2 sets in stone...

BobG

[phil old leake]

I see that Putin has allegedly put their nuclear weapons on alert

Not something g that you would leak if you had any intentions

It’s a bit like telling someone to expect a kick in in the future

My view a no hopefully I’m right this is just posturing

I certainly hope so or we are all fxxxed

[Filo]

I see that Putin has allegedly put their nuclear weapons on alert

Not something g that you would leak if you had any intentions

It’s a bit like telling someone to expect a kick in in the future

My view a no hopefully I’m right this is just posturing

I certainly hope so or we are all fxxxed

I think it’s time some high ranking Russian General terminated him

[BobG]

It's tempting Filo - as long as you are prepared to sup with the dévil you don't  know...

[phil old leake]

Filo

With the way the people are parading in Russia. Something might just give.  The Russian people won’t want hardship

He is a scarey man and I wouldn’t want to try and fail

[scawsby steve]

Filo

With the way the people are parading in Russia. Something might just give.  The Russian people won’t want hardship

He is a scarey man and I wouldn’t want to try and fail

This exactly. Russia is soon going to be made the pariah nation of the world.

The Russian people aren't going to stand for that.

[BobG]

They did for 40 odd years after WW2 though... Maybe times have changed though

BobG