Stat time

[Colin C No.3]

Unsustainable results. We are in bother.

We’re 3 games in with one win & two away draws.

I’ll not reiterate what Jonathan has said I’ll simply add…..get a grip man.

[normal rules]

The thing that strikes me about this team is that they are still finding, or perhaps I should say establishing a style of playing. What struck me about Wellens’ team was that there was no pattern, no plan. And although things got a bit better under GMcS, he tried to build on what were unstable foundations.

His close season signings have brought the character so lacking last season. Whereas in more settled times newcomers, like the close-season signings, are fitting into an team with an established style of playing, there was no discernible style to merge with.

So as well as young players progressing with experience there is a process of building relationships and developing a style of play which to me looks nothing like Moore’s team and does not really resemble much of what we have seen in recent years.

All that I could say with a degree of confidence is that it is promising and the players look comfortable in it. Given the youthful element and the firm participation evident from those more experienced it is encouraging. Not relying on and accommodating individually gifted loan players could even be an advantage.

How good this squad will become depends on talent and leadership, but the manager seems flexible and he and Copps appear to be sensitive and “modern” in their style which should aid the positive development.

Hits nail on head.

[DonnyOsmond]

Unsustainable results. We are in bother.

We’re 3 games in with one win & two away draws.

I’ll not reiterate what Jonathan has said I’ll simply add…..get a grip man.

You don't understand what he's been saying then. The results have been good but the performances haven't and the xG/xP show the results aren't currently sustainable unless we improve our overall performances.

[Mustapha-Dump]

Don’t think I’ll ever understand the fascination with XG XP or whatever other essentially meaningless stats people obsess over, to refer to the above message from DonnyOsmond specifically the results have been good but the performances haven’t, results are the only thing that will shape the table between now and May, nobody has ever been promoted via expected goals, or goal threat or anything like that, teams get promoted by still picking up points even when the form isn’t good, for my money we have seen small levels of improvement game by game of this season and we were more than value for a draw at Wimbledon, keep picking up points, keep moving forward and we will be just fine

[dickos1]

The Bradford game will have massively effected these stats for us especially when only considering 3 games.
Our XG stats under Saunders would’ve been bottom half of the table.
But we ground out results, nothing wrong with that for me.

[DonnyOsmond]

The Bradford game will have massively effected these stats for us especially when only considering 3 games.
Our XG stats under Saunders would’ve been bottom half of the table.
But we ground out results, nothing wrong with that for me.

We have 1.8 expected points over 3 games, which is joint last. It's not all on the Bradford game.

We had a very sturdy defence under Saunders, I doubt we'd have struggled at xGA.

[Chris Black come back]

Although…we are conceding at a goal a game so far (with away games being 2 of the 3 games) which is 46 goals over the season. The 2012/13 side conceded almost exactly the same, at 44 goals that season.

[BillyStubbsTears]

Although…we are conceding at a goal a game so far (with away games being 2 of the 3 games) which is 46 goals over the season. The 2012/13 side conceded almost exactly the same, at 44 goals that season.

I think the point is, if we played these matches 10 times and performed as we have done so far, we wouldn't only concede 3 very often.

If we'd conceded 4 in the first half against Sutton we couldn't have complained.

We've shown some grit but we've also had a chunk of luck.

[IDM]

Stats are great for analysing what's gone on in a game.  Coaches can see how their players rated against each other, against opponents, and others in the division.  You can look at the analysis to work out where to make improvements etc.  I think such stats can also effect a player's value for sale.

However, I don't necessarily think stats can be that useful for predictions.  Stats can't predict dodgy ref decisions (for and against), injuries during play which effect the game, unexpected sendings off, lucky/unlucky deflections etc.

If football matches went the way stats "predict" they would be very boring.

[dickos1]

The Bradford game will have massively effected these stats for us especially when only considering 3 games.
Our XG stats under Saunders would’ve been bottom half of the table.
But we ground out results, nothing wrong with that for me.

We have 1.8 expected points over 3 games, which is joint last. It's not all on the Bradford game.

We had a very sturdy defence under Saunders, I doubt we'd have struggled at xGA.

Sutton expected goals away from home is 0.47, amongst the lowest in the league. Yes folk say they should’ve scored 4 against us, their only away game so far this season…
Think that shows we either didn’t get battered as much as everyone thinks or these stats aren’t quite right

[GazLaz]

The Bradford game will have massively effected these stats for us especially when only considering 3 games.
Our XG stats under Saunders would’ve been bottom half of the table.
But we ground out results, nothing wrong with that for me.

We have 1.8 expected points over 3 games, which is joint last. It's not all on the Bradford game.

We had a very sturdy defence under Saunders, I doubt we'd have struggled at xGA.

Sutton expected goals away from home is 0.47, amongst the lowest in the league. Yes folk say they should’ve scored 4 against us, their only away game so far this season…
Think that shows we either didn’t get battered as much as everyone thinks or these stats aren’t quite right

It wasn’t, it was around 2.0 from memory.

[DonnyOsmond]

The Bradford game will have massively effected these stats for us especially when only considering 3 games.
Our XG stats under Saunders would’ve been bottom half of the table.
But we ground out results, nothing wrong with that for me.

We have 1.8 expected points over 3 games, which is joint last. It's not all on the Bradford game.

We had a very sturdy defence under Saunders, I doubt we'd have struggled at xGA.

Sutton expected goals away from home is 0.47, amongst the lowest in the league. Yes folk say they should’ve scored 4 against us, their only away game so far this season…
Think that shows we either didn’t get battered as much as everyone thinks or these stats aren’t quite right

It wasn’t, it was around 2.0 from memory.

I have 1.37 for us, 3.4 for them.

[dickos1]

Well our xg stats must’ve been through the roof tonight
Excellent performance we should’ve scored 5 or 6

[danumdon]

I think we can safely say the stats would of not predicted the performance and the way the match was won.

I think we can all put the stats to bed for tonight.

I'm just quite happy to stay lucky if that's the outcome we can get.

[Chris Black come back]

Although…we are conceding at a goal a game so far (with away games being 2 of the 3 games) which is 46 goals over the season. The 2012/13 side conceded almost exactly the same, at 44 goals that season.

I think the point is, if we played these matches 10 times and performed as we have done so far, we wouldn't only concede 3 very often.

If we'd conceded 4 in the first half against Sutton we couldn't have complained.

We've shown some grit but we've also had a chunk of luck.

Played 4, conceded 4. Over course of a season, 45 goals.

[Colin C No.3]

Unsustainable results. We are in bother.

We ‘still’ in bother?

[DonnyOsmond]

Unsustainable results. We are in bother.

We ‘still’ in bother?

You're saying that after a win against 10 men so that won't give us an indication, plus up until the sending off they were probably edging it.

[Mustapha-Dump]

And yet again the only stat that matters is the result and our points total

[dickos1]

Unsustainable results. We are in bother.

We ‘still’ in bother?

You're saying that after a win against 10 men so that won't give us an indication, plus up until the sending off they were probably edging it.

You included the Bradford game though didn’t you,
Why could they give us an indication but last night woukdnt.
The way we played against ten men was far better than Bradford did against us.

[GazLaz]

Unsustainable results. We are in bother.

We ‘still’ in bother?

Yes. The fundamentals don’t change after one result. We played well against 10 men. Our best performance to date, but I don’t change my opinions on a game by game basis.

[IDM]

I don't understand your opinion (stats based) as you've not explained it yet.

If your opinion is that we've not been performing well for much of the time, and won points by the skin of our teeth - well I could understand that even if I didn't agree.

[Ronnie Dovers]

Unsustainable results. We are in bother.

We ‘still’ in bother?

Yes. The fundamentals don’t change after one result. We played well against 10 men. Our best performance to date, but I don’t change my opinions on a game by game basis.

You formed an extremely strong opinion based on 3 games though (2.5 if you ignore the Bradford game when we were down to 10).

[Colin C No.3]

Unsustainable results. We are in bother.

We ‘still’ in bother?

Yes. The fundamentals don’t change after one result. We played well against 10 men. Our best performance to date, but I don’t change my opinions on a game by game basis.

‘Unsustainable results. We are in bother”.

Mmm, would you care to take another look at your ‘fundamentals’?

After 3 games it’s called ‘knee jerk’.

I’ll leave the word ‘knee’ in there for now.

[adamtherover]

Unsustainable results. We are in bother.

are the stats changing their mind yet?

[Jonathan]

It’s still very early days. Gaz has his reasons and I think he’s explained them, but in my view it was far too early to be marking us down as “in bother” after three games (and a good return from them I’ll add) taking account of all the circumstances around them. We’ve gone on to win the next two and equally it’s far too early to be getting over-excited.

We’re doing a lot of the right things and I’m happy with that. There’s a very clear culture / mentality shift that has enabled these positive results so far this season, and we just have to keep looking to chalk up the points from the really tough start we’ve had. Im not into monitoring all the XG (for or against) but I’m enjoying watching us play, and that’s good enough for me.

[Colin C No.3]

Exactly.

Posts like ‘unsustainable results & we’re in bother’ are ridiculous especially after it was posted 3 games in!

I’m enjoying watching players getting ‘involved’ & seemingly proud wearing the Rovers hoops. After last seasons ‘death by a thousand cuts’ football it’s put the smile back on my face.

So excuse me if I say I couldn’t give a monkey’s about stats because it’s results (gained by whatever means) that will have us in a position to vie for promotion come the end of the season.

[IDM]

It’s still very early days. Gaz has his reasons and I think he’s explained them, but in my view it was far too early to be marking us down as “in bother” after three games (and a good return from them I’ll add) taking account of all the circumstances around them. We’ve gone on to win the next two and equally it’s far too early to be getting over-excited.

We’re doing a lot of the right things and I’m happy with that. There’s a very clear culture / mentality shift that has enabled these positive results so far this season, and we just have to keep looking to chalk up the points from the really tough start we’ve had. Im not into monitoring all the XG (for or against) but I’m enjoying watching us play, and that’s good enough for me.

He hasn't explained them.

The sorts of stats he's on about I see can be valid for coaches to analyse performances post-match. 

For predictions, there are too many unknown variables for such stats to be predictive.  Look at Derby yesterday at Burton - how many chances did they create so what was their expected goals measure?  Yet they scored nil.

[NickDRFC]

It’s still very early days. Gaz has his reasons and I think he’s explained them, but in my view it was far too early to be marking us down as “in bother” after three games (and a good return from them I’ll add) taking account of all the circumstances around them. We’ve gone on to win the next two and equally it’s far too early to be getting over-excited.

We’re doing a lot of the right things and I’m happy with that. There’s a very clear culture / mentality shift that has enabled these positive results so far this season, and we just have to keep looking to chalk up the points from the really tough start we’ve had. Im not into monitoring all the XG (for or against) but I’m enjoying watching us play, and that’s good enough for me.

He hasn't explained them.

The sorts of stats he's on about I see can be valid for coaches to analyse performances post-match. 

For predictions, there are too many unknown variables for such stats to be predictive.  Look at Derby yesterday at Burton - how many chances did they create so what was their expected goals measure?  Yet they scored nil.

Disagree, you’ll get outliers in individual matches but over the course of the season a team with consistently high xGF and low xGC will do well.

That said saying “we are in bother” after 3 games is also daft, far too small a sample size.

[Jonathan]

It’s still very early days. Gaz has his reasons and I think he’s explained them, but in my view it was far too early to be marking us down as “in bother” after three games (and a good return from them I’ll add) taking account of all the circumstances around them. We’ve gone on to win the next two and equally it’s far too early to be getting over-excited.

We’re doing a lot of the right things and I’m happy with that. There’s a very clear culture / mentality shift that has enabled these positive results so far this season, and we just have to keep looking to chalk up the points from the really tough start we’ve had. Im not into monitoring all the XG (for or against) but I’m enjoying watching us play, and that’s good enough for me.

He hasn't explained them.

The sorts of stats he's on about I see can be valid for coaches to analyse performances post-match. 

For predictions, there are too many unknown variables for such stats to be predictive.  Look at Derby yesterday at Burton - how many chances did they create so what was their expected goals measure?  Yet they scored nil.

Disagree, you’ll get outliers in individual matches but over the course of the season a team with consistently high xGF and low xGC will do well.

That said saying “we are in bother” after 3 games is also daft, far too small a sample size.

I think the argument is that the sample stretches back long before this season began. But I fundamentally disagree with the value in that. There’s been a very significant change in personnel and shift in culture this summer, and it’s a new start. We’ve started very well and I feel there’s a lot more to come from this team.

No point looking back now. We need to stick together through all of the ups and downs we’ll face in the course of this season.

[DonnyBazR0ver]

I think all those who stayed to applaud every single player off the pitch, which there were more than I've seen for years, don't give two hoots about the stats. The stats don't reflect the performance.

You could be forgiven for thinking Tomlin might go missing when the going got tough, but far from it, he got stuck in too playing a more disciplined role when he had to.

Players often say the squad is together but the way they all celebrated at the end, inc injured players such as Olowu, shows there's bonds being formed. Great to see.

That togetherness is huge!