truss

[BillyStubbsTears]

https://mobile.twitter.com/SamCoatesSky/status/1575203918573080576

For those old enough to remember, this has got Black Wednesday written all over it.

1) The Govt chooses to take a very difficult to defend policy position that damages the economy.

2) The markets smell blood and bet that the Govt can't stick to that policy.

3) The Govt insists that everything is fine and it will see the policy through come hell or high water.

4) The markets squeeze the Govt's balls. Hard.

5) Govt gives in and reverses policy.

Who's your money on?

[SydneyRover]

''No10 and Treasury ministers reject any notion tonight that there's a crisis. Meetings are continuing on a range of subjects in Number 10 - but there's no big focus on the market turmoil. Ministers in cabinet rubbish the link between Friday's statement and today's turmoil....''

Other unconnected links are .........

The call up in Russia and the massive queues at the borders

https://apnews.com/article/russia-ukraine-georgia-moscow-government-and-politics-482165571df054a4d58d0afddafc782b

The connection between the rising concentrations of Co2 in the atmosphere and burning fossil fuels.

The abnormal death rate and covid ........

[i_ateallthepies]

[quote author =Filo link=topic=285964.msg1189470#msg1189470 date=1664392785]

Without the BoE intervention today pension funds would have collapsed, I wonder what our Tory voting pensioners on here have got to say about that?

Pension funds don’t just apply to retired people Filo.
Who are the Tory voting pensioners by the way, got any names?

Quote by Filo.
I know, I’m one

No way did you vote Tory. 
[/quote]

In exactly the same way that you didn't vote Tory.

[mugnapper]

I suppose one plus from this Financial Disaster is that Bankers will be earning whopping bonuses from it and also paying much less tax on those bonuses.
See, it’s not all bad news.

[ncRover]

The IMF didn’t have a problem with the many multiple times more money spent on trying to stop covid and grind the economy to a halt. More so than the £2bn initially lost through tax cuts, why’s that?

Do you really want to know, or is this just another knee jerk anti-lockdown spasm?

My point was to highlight the relatively small ratio of the tax cuts. For example 2bn in relation to 150bn energy bills support package or 32bn on track and trace.

No need for the spiteful tone, I’m just trying to understand things.

[albie]

Truss will get a sullen response at the Tory Conference this week-end, but some will think it too early to rock the boat.
When the energy rationing kicks in during a winter cold spell, she is toast.

Some think bringing back Bozo is some sort of solution, God help us all!

[Filo]

We have n’t got a written constitution, but by god we need one, there needs to be a mechanism of removing and out of control PM!

[mugnapper]

Where IS Truss by the way?

Up the bloody tree.

That line is in a song and it's taken me an age to pin it down. Blancmange (Who I saw at the Outlook) and 'Living on the Ceiling'.

[Filo]

Whoever it was that thought it was a good idea to do the rounds on local radio today has dropped a massive bollock, she was crucified by local journalists

[BillyStubbsTears]

The IMF didn’t have a problem with the many multiple times more money spent on trying to stop covid and grind the economy to a halt. More so than the £2bn initially lost through tax cuts, why’s that?

Do you really want to know, or is this just another knee jerk anti-lockdown spasm?

My point was to highlight the relatively small ratio of the tax cuts. For example 2bn in relation to 150bn energy bills support package or 32bn on track and trace.

No need for the spiteful tone, I’m just trying to understand things.

Apologies. I saw exactly that line ooze out of loads of right wing COVID denial sites yesterday, repeated by people who should know better. In fact people who probably DO know better but chose to feed folk that bullshit line.

Here's why there's no comparison. Oh and before we start, the tax cuts are £45bn, not £2bn.

1) Why wasn't Govt spending to support people and companies in lockdown a problem?

You have to understand how Govts borrow. They don't pop down to see the bank manager and ask for a loan. The Treasury offers billions of pounds of Govt bonds, promising to pay interest. I'm effect, the financial markets, dominated by big pension funds decide what interest rate they want in return for buying those bonds.

In 2020, the world economy was grinding to a halt. There were very few safe places for money to go. No big commercial investment opportunities were safe. So the financial markets were falling over themselves to lend money to Govts all round the world at effectively zero interest rate.

2) COVID related Govt spending, though large, had a purpose and was always going to be time limited. The markets could see that.

3) Onto Kwarteng. Where to start? He's made several decisions which have freaked the market.

4) Before that, look at the global context. We are now asking to borrow money in a world awash with rapidly growing economies that have bounced back into growth post-COVID. We now have to persuade bond buyers to buy ours. That means they need to have confidence in the direction our Govt finances are going.

5) And there's the rub. Kwarteng announced £45bn of tax cuts on top of £150bn of energy cap funding and he didn't say a single word about how that would be funded. The tax cuts are key here because they would constitute an ongoing cost, year after year. That's called a current account deficit and you cannot run a country over the long term by borrowing to fill a current account deficit.

6) He claimed, against 99.9% of economic advisers' opinions, that the tax cuts would boost long term growth and thus fill the whole in the accounts.

7) He refused to publish a report by the OBR into what they thought the effect of the tax cuts would be.

8) And the Govt is saying that their policy is growth, while the BoE is following its legally enforced mandate to bring down inflation. Never happened before that the Treasury and the BoE are pulling in directly opposite directions.

9) Put all that together and the financial markets said, "we think you are taking a massive risk spadger. We're not even sure there are any grown ups in charge anymore. We'll lend to you, but only if you give us 5% interest to cover the risk." (It was <1% this time last year.

 10) That bond rate rise, if it sticks, adds £100bn to our annual debt interest bill. That massively depressed our future economic outlook. That puts downward pressure in the Pound, which means more inflation and higher interest rates to control it.

++++++++++

That's why this is nothing like the COVID spending. I saw someone sum it up far better yesterday. They said we are suffering because the markets are demanding a Moron Premium when they lend to us. Because what Truss and Kwarteng have done is THE most moronic economic policy decision, certainly in 50 years, possibly in the last century since Churchill brought back the Gold Standard.

[BillyStubbsTears]

Whoever it was that thought it was a good idea to do the rounds on local radio today has dropped a massive bollock, she was crucified by local journalists

Questions to which the answer is "Yes".

No. 1. "Will you, PM, guarantee that people's pensions are safe?"

Go on Lizzy! Knock it out the park! You go girl!

Errr...

https://twitter.com/tony4rochdale/status/1575414100347191299

[SydneyRover]

.......... er the BoE is doing a very good job er .................

Is this preparing the ground to blame the BoE if it all goes pear shaped?

[mugnapper]

Whoever it was that thought it was a good idea to do the rounds on local radio today has dropped a massive bollock, she was crucified by local journalists

So embarrassing. She'll be gone within 6 months.

[Copps is Magic]

https://twitter.com/thetimes/status/1575380228712665088

[BillyStubbsTears]

Yougov 23rd-25th September

Labour 45%
Tories 28%
Libs 9%

Biggest Labour lead YouGov have ever had in 21 years of polling.

https://twitter.com/Samfr/status/1574498355090276378

That record didn't last long...

https://twitter.com/BritainElects/status/1575522731101245440

Still looking for that polling bounce for the Tories once they ditch Johnson.

[Filo]

Yougov 23rd-25th September

Labour 45%
Tories 28%
Libs 9%

Biggest Labour lead YouGov have ever had in 21 years of polling.

https://twitter.com/Samfr/status/1574498355090276378

That record didn't last long...

https://twitter.com/BritainElects/status/1575522731101245440

Still looking for that polling bounce for the Tories once they ditch Johnson.

The first post under that shows the Tory’s winning just 3 seats in that scenario

[BillyStubbsTears]

Highest lead for any party in any opinion poll since 1998 as far as I can see.

[Filo]

Highest lead for any party in any opinion poll since 1998 as far as I can see.

SNP would be the main opposition

[Panda]

Highest lead for any party in any opinion poll since 1998 as far as I can see.

All from doing absolutely nothing but watch the Tories implode for the last 2 and a half years.

Starmer could have simply gone on holiday for all that time, reappeared and still be miles ahead by default.

Truss is an absolute airhead that isn't fit to be a politician let alone run a country.

[drfchound]

[quote author =Filo link=topic=285964.msg1189470#msg1189470 date=1664392785]

Without the BoE intervention today pension funds would have collapsed, I wonder what our Tory voting pensioners on here have got to say about that?

Pension funds don’t just apply to retired people Filo.
Who are the Tory voting pensioners by the way, got any names?

Quote by Filo.
I know, I’m one

No way did you vote Tory. 

In exactly the same way that you didn't vote Tory.
[/quote]

What are you saying?

[Donnywolf]

https://mobile.twitter.com/SamCoatesSky/status/1575203918573080576

For those old enough to remember, this has got Black Wednesday written all over it.

1) The Govt chooses to take a very difficult to defend policy position that damages the economy.

2) The markets smell blood and bet that the Govt can't stick to that policy.

3) The Govt insists that everything is fine and it will see the policy through come hell or high water.

4) The markets squeeze the Govt's balls. Hard.

5) Govt gives in and reverses policy.

Who's your money on?

With apologies to Thatcher who said "the lady is not for turning" I think Truss will be saddled with a similar epithet " the lady is not for NOT turning"

One coming soon.

Maybe she will sack Kwarteng making him Lord KK at a later date .... Though she will need to be quick given the Tory MPs are smelling blood (her blood) already

[BillyStubbsTears]

There's the problem.

Thatcher as the indomitable non-turner is etched om the Tory mythology.

Except it's not true.

She insisted in 1981 that there'd be no u-turn on her economic policy. But she quietly ditched it 18 months after, safe in the glow of the Falklands victory.

If Truss doesn't understand that then she deserves the t**tting that history is going to give her.

[i_ateallthepies]

[quote author =Filo link=topic=285964.msg1189470#msg1189470 date=1664392785]

Without the BoE intervention today pension funds would have collapsed, I wonder what our Tory voting pensioners on here have got to say about that?

Pension funds don’t just apply to retired people Filo.
Who are the Tory voting pensioners by the way, got any names?

Quote by Filo.
I know, I’m one

No way did you vote Tory. 

In exactly the same way that you didn't vote Tory.

What are you saying?
[/quote]

If reading it once isn't enough just keep trying, I'm sure you'll get there, clever fellow that you are.

[ChrisBx]

This really is end game stuff from the Tories. That parliament hasn't been recalled is a disgrace.

[wilts rover]

Yougov 23rd-25th September

Labour 45%
Tories 28%
Libs 9%

Biggest Labour lead YouGov have ever had in 21 years of polling.

https://twitter.com/Samfr/status/1574498355090276378

That record didn't last long...

https://twitter.com/BritainElects/status/1575522731101245440

Still looking for that polling bounce for the Tories once they ditch Johnson.

The first post under that shows the Tory’s winning just 3 seats in that scenario

All in Scotland!!

[wilts rover]

The IMF didn’t have a problem with the many multiple times more money spent on trying to stop covid and grind the economy to a halt. More so than the £2bn initially lost through tax cuts, why’s that?

Do you really want to know, or is this just another knee jerk anti-lockdown spasm?

My point was to highlight the relatively small ratio of the tax cuts. For example 2bn in relation to 150bn energy bills support package or 32bn on track and trace.

No need for the spiteful tone, I’m just trying to understand things.

It's not the tax cuts per se (or the pos £200 billion energy support package) its that they haven't shown how they are going to pay back their massive borrowing if they are going to cut taxes?

Funnily enough the IMF or the world financial markets dont believe that just chanting the word 'growth' will automatically generate more money. And that's why the £ went down, which sent borrowing costs up, which almost broke pension funds who hold a lot of the debt.

[wilts rover]

[quote author =Filo link=topic=285964.msg1189470#msg1189470 date=1664392785]

Without the BoE intervention today pension funds would have collapsed, I wonder what our Tory voting pensioners on here have got to say about that?

Pension funds don’t just apply to retired people Filo.
Who are the Tory voting pensioners by the way, got any names?

Quote by Filo.
I know, I’m one

No way did you vote Tory. 

In exactly the same way that you didn't vote Tory.

What are you saying?

If reading it once isn't enough just keep trying, I'm sure you'll get there, clever fellow that you are.
[/quote]

Hound didn't vote Tory at the last GE. He just likes being argumentative (and he's not alone in that). But if people can't remember who he said he voted for - I a'int telling!

Btw if you read his posts he very rarely says anything pro-Tory. He just criticises Labour and Labour supporters a lot. Dont mistake the two.

[bpoolrover]

I suppose one plus from this Financial Disaster is that Bankers will be earning whopping bonuses from it and also paying much less tax on those bonuses.
See, it’s not all bad news.

while i'm not saying i agree with scrapping the caps im not sure your right, if they got a bonus  say 500k and now they got a bonus of 1 million they would pay considerably more tax than they were before

[SydneyRover]

To be a fly on the wall in the meeting between the OBR, truss and kk

OBR: welcome

truss & kk: no comment

[Glyn_Wigley]

I suppose one plus from this Financial Disaster is that Bankers will be earning whopping bonuses from it and also paying much less tax on those bonuses.
See, it’s not all bad news.

while i'm not saying i agree with scrapping the caps im not sure your right, if they got a bonus  say 500k and now they got a bonus of 1 million they would pay considerably more tax than they were before

I wouldn't call £175K each 'considerably more'. It's hardly going to make a dent in the borrowing the government is going to have to make. And it's a big 'IF' to start with.