It's that time of year...

[BillyStubbsTears]

...for the BST patent points predictor.

Quick summary. This looks at the current points position, and the last  ten games' form. It assumes that form carries on to the end of the season and calculates how many points each finishing position would have. That's the key - it doesn't predict each SIDE'S final points. It predicts the points required to finish in each position.

There's nothing mathematically rigorous about this, but for the past 10-12 years, it has been remarkable accurate from about 15 games out in predicting most final points tallies to within 1-2 points.  For example, from about this time last season, it predicted the final points tallies of the bottom 8 very well. The average error in the predicted final tally was 1.5 points, and for no position was it more than 3 points out.

So here goes. As of today, here are the predicted points for each finishing position.

1st 87
2nd 84
3rd 82
4th 79
5th 75
6th 73
7th 73
8th 70
9th 69
10th 69
11th 67
12th 64
13th 63
14th 61


Looks like a proper dogfight for the lower playoff places. And if this is right, it implies that we need VERY good form to scrape into 7th - 30 points from 17 games - P17 W9 D3 L5. Not much room for error there.

[shottonstreet]

ten wins then.

[pib]

Feels unlikely doesn't it with some of the fixtures we've got coming up. If we play well tomorrow I might start to believe we can pick up a bit more consistency though.

[BillyStubbsTears]

For the record, I should have made this clearer. I'm not saying bang on 73 points will definitely secure 7th place. That's what the model says is the most likely figure.

[Dutch Uncle]

BST's model has done very well these last years. But for interest, just to add a couple of data points - since three points per win was introduced in 1981-82 the average number of points for 7th position in tier 4 has been 71.49, the highest 79 (in 1982-83) and the lowest 68 (in 2010-11). The average number of points in 8th position in tier 4 is 69.22 with a  highest of 76 by Sutton last year and a lowest of 62 in 2013-14


A few comments:
Play-offs were introduced in 1986-87 so the highest of 79 in 1982-83 was not in a playoff chasing scenario
Some seasons were only 42 games - I have increased the points pro-rata to 46 games to for averaging and analysis
Similarly for 2019-20, the COVID interrupted season I have extrapolated pro-rata to 46 games

So this seasons looks like being a higher than average year for points required

[normal rules]

Always interesting this .
Rovers currently at 1.48 ppg after 29 games.
To make 73 points, for the remaining 17 games alone the ppg required would need to be 1.76ppg.
Adopting an optimistic view, the current turnaround in form may provide the necessary boost to the ppg required.
And to add context, a win tonight would rise rovers ppg so far for the season to 1.53. To make 73 points over the season is just 1.58ppg over the whole season.
This is achievable. Wins of course will be key, but draws will play a big part too.
To get to 82 for a possible auto slot would require an extraordinary turnaround. Roy of the rovers stuff of 2.29 ppg for the remaining 17 games.

[BillyStubbsTears]

Good points NR.

We undoubtedly need a significant improvement in form to compete.

Splitting the season to date into roughly thirds, we've averaged

1.56 PPG for the first 9 games
1.40 PPG for the middle 10
1.50 PPG for the most recent 10

So we've never been in playoff form for a reasonable period.

Funny thing though, form stats. Theu are capricious things. If we win tonight, our most recent10 game form will be 1.8 PPG.

[normal rules]

Barrow, Bradford and Sutton games are all six pointers given the points proximity. Imo.
Come out of these three games with a win and two draws or more and things will start to look very promising.
5 points would be 1.66ppg taking the season average to 1.5ppg.
We dare to dream.

[Alan Southstand]

About 1.7ppg to the end of the season?

Do’able?

[steve@dcfd]

16 games left 10wins should see us in the mix can we do it.

[Campsall rover]

16 games left 10wins should see us in the mix can we do it.

8 wins and 3 draws from 16 games gives us 73 points.  That should be enough for 7th place.
11 wins and 2 draws gives us 81 points. That might be enough for 3rd place.

Tall order but definitely not impossible. The next 6 games will now be absolutely crucial.
Sutton       A
Bradford    H
Stockport   A
Harrogate  H
Wimbledon H
Salford.      A

Think if we win 4 of those and only lose 1 then top 3 becomes a very realistic possibility as Carlisle and Northampton are faltering.
Just trying not to get too ahead of myself. 

One game at a time.

[normal rules]

Last nights win takes rovers season average to 1.53ppg. Keep that up and it’s 70/71 points. Which could be enough for 7th.

[BillyStubbsTears]

I'll be astonished if 70 points gets someone 7th place.

[BillyStubbsTears]

The predictor is saying 75 points for 7th place after last night. I'll split the difference between the last 2 predictions and go for 74. That's a big ask for us.

[Campsall rover]

I will be disappointed BST if we don’t get 74 points from where we are now.
That’s 28 more points from 16 games.
9 wins and 1 draw or 8 wins and 4 draws.

After this next 6 games the run in to the end of the season, our last 10 games look much more comfortable on paper.
Now I am not stupid enough to think we will win against everyone in the bottom half of the table ( Hartlepool doing the double over us being the prime example ) but if we get a decent points haul from the next 6 then the play offs positions are ours to throw away.

Of our last 10 games we only have Northampton H & Stevenage A who are currently in the top 14
We finish at Walsall A  who are currently in 15th place but have 2/3 games in hand on almost everyone above.

It a good run in for us. In fact I doubt anyone else have a better one on paper.
Just a pity football isn’t played on paper.   

[BillyStubbsTears]

I will be disappointed BST if we don’t get 74 points from where we are now.
That’s 28 more points from 16 games.
9 wins and 1 draw or 8 wins and 4 draws.

After this next 6 games the run in to the end of the season, our last 10 games look much more comfortable on paper.
Now I am not stupid enough to think we will win against everyone in the bottom half of the table ( Hartlepool doing the double over us being the prime example ) but if we get a decent points haul from the next 6 then the play offs positions are ours to throw away.

I think you're being overly optimistic to be honest. That's form equivalent to 81 points over the season. That's usually enough for a top 3 place. We've never shown a sign of being that good at any point this season. For all that the three points last night were merited, I think we need to be realistic that we are far from a remorseless machine. It was quite sobering how Barrow unsettled us by playing a more aggressive push n the second half. That's been our weakness all season, and we'll come up against that plenty between now and May.

I'd snap your hand off if you offered me 74 points and a shot at the playoffs here and now. My honest expectation is that we'll get 70 and finish 9th.

[NickDRFC]

It wouldn’t surprise me if the total needed for 7th is a bit higher this season. I can’t really see any of the sides from 3rd to 8th having a nosedive.

[Campsall rover]

It wouldn’t surprise me if the total needed for 7th is a bit higher this season. I can’t really see any of the sides from 3rd to 8th having a nosedive.

But they are all going to take points off each other.  I am going to predict that Carlisle have a serious wobble and fall out of the top 7. Salford just fail to make the cut and Northampton are the other team who wobble but make the top 7.  Northampton are struggling to score goals over the last month or so. Carlisle I just don’t think have the strength in depth and last nights 0-4 defeat at home to Mansfield shows their vulnerability. They have seriously over achieved this season up to this point.

Final table prediction. You heard it here 1st.   

1)  Leyton Orient
2)  Stevenage
3)  Bradford City

4)  Stockport County
5)  Mansfield Town
6)  Doncaster Rovers
7)  Northampton Town

8)  Salford City
9)  Carlisle United
10) Swindon Town
11) Walsall
12) Wimbledon
13) Tranmere Rovers
14) Sutton United
15) Barrow
16) Grimsby Town
17) Colchester United
18) Crewe Alexandra
19) Gillingham
20) Newport County
21) Harrogate Town
22) Hartlepool United

23) Crawley Town
24) Rochdale

[normal rules]

Stags v rovers playoff semi final?
Tasty.

[drfchound]

A couple of big attendances for those matches, if they were to happen.

[Sammy Chung was King]

16 games left 10wins should see us in the mix can we do it.

8 wins and 3 draws from 16 games gives us 73 points.  That should be enough for 7th place.
11 wins and 2 draws gives us 81 points. That might be enough for 3rd place.

Tall order but definitely not impossible. The next 6 games will now be absolutely crucial.
Sutton       A
Bradford    H
Stockport   A
Harrogate  H
Wimbledon H
Salford.      A

Think if we win 4 of those and only lose 1 then top 3 becomes a very realistic possibility as Carlisle and Northampton are faltering.
Just trying not to get too ahead of myself. 

One game at a time.

I see us getting these results

Sutton win
Bradford draw
Stockport lose
Harrogate win
Wimbledon draw
Salford win

11 points from 18.

[GazLaz]

Good points NR.

We undoubtedly need a significant improvement in form to compete.

Splitting the season to date into roughly thirds, we've averaged

1.56 PPG for the first 9 games
1.40 PPG for the middle 10
1.50 PPG for the most recent 10

So we've never been in playoff form for a reasonable period.

Funny thing though, form stats. Theu are capricious things. If we win tonight, our most recent10 game form will be 1.8 PPG.

The underlying numbers reflect us being a top 5/7/8 side. I said that to Gavin prior to the last three wins, then bish, bash, bosh, three wins in a row balancing out a bit of indifferent variance in results prior to that.

One thing that concerns me is the fact that the improvement in form is down to really good defensive numbers (when before the last three clean sheets) BUT the attacking output is still stagnant. We realistically need to improve that output by 0.25ish goals per game to really be a force in this league. I think that could be a personnel issue though. Miller, LM and KH as a regular front three aren’t good enough.

[pib]

Look at it another way (albeit a crude one), if we repeat our current season-long PPG over the next 15, we'd go into the last game at Walsall on 69pts. If BST's initial post is close to accurate, 8th place finishes on 70, so we could potentially go into that last game knowing there's a chance a win would secure 7th.

Any slight uptick in season-long PPG over and above that, and we're in with a very good shout.

Don't get me wrong, it's a big ask to get the points required from 16 games and it might turn out we've left ourselves with too much to do, but there are numerous ways of looking at it, and there's definitely still a chance.

[colincramb]

We really need to get something on Saturday (a draw will do) and then go into the bradford game looking for a win. We’ve got a tough 4 weeks coming up I fear

[BillyStubbsTears]

My take is that we are going to get to the end of the season and, when we just miss out on the playoffs, ask ourselves how we managed to drop 9 points from three games against Hartlepool and Colchester.

[normal rules]

The goal diff is a real bummer.
I hope it doesn’t make the difference.
Points tally is one thing, but as it stands our gd is effectively-1 point.

[scawsby steve]

My take is that we are going to get to the end of the season and, when we just miss out on the playoffs, ask ourselves how we managed to drop 9 points from three games against Hartlepool and Colchester.

Swings and roundabouts, BST. Think how MK Dons must have felt last season. Just 2 draws against the worst Rovers side in over 20 years would have given them automatic promotion.

Instead, we did the bloody double over them.

[DonnyBazR0ver]

The last 6 games of the season always throw up surprises. Form goes out of the window and PPG is irrelevant. It's within most teams capability of putting a run together. A run of wins or a run of losses.

As said, if up to game 39 we can manage between 1.75 to 2 pts per game, I suspect we'll be in a good position for play offs and possibly a tilt for automatic.

It's not a must win in Saturday but anything other than a loss sets us up to bridge that gap to the play off positions, then it's a case of staying there until the last 6 burn up!

[Silkscarf]

1.7ppg in 2023 would put us in 7th on 73. I'd happily take that and would fancy us to have a decent crack at it. I know it's only the last 7 games not 10 BST, but never mind. The overall point is we think we can do this. We're starting to play a bit. Do slightly better and we're definitely above that dotted line. For example had we kept Hartlepool at 0-0 we'd be on 1.85ppg from last 7 ie 5th on 75pts.

Come on Rovers, let's have it.

Wember-leee, Wember-leee...etc.

[vaya]

Disappointingly, this still continues not to be a Chicken Song appreciation thread.