Another Brexit benefit

[big fat yorkshire pudding]

The number of cars built in the UK was 775k in 2022. Down from nearly 1.7m in 2016.

I forget. What happened in 2016?

Was it this that saw a big chunk of UK and Turkish production ceasing and moving back to Japan?

"The EU and Japan recently struck a trade deal that eliminates tariffs on car exports between the two entities. It’s understood that now, with no financial penalties for making cars in Japan and exporting them to Europe, the last business case in favour of maintaining HUM has been removed."

[belton rover]

But starting at a production of nearly 6 million cars in 2016.

A huge loss, nonetheless.
Bloody Brexit.

[albie]

A reminder from 2018;
https://twitter.com/RoryStewartUK/status/1056568783400243201

The speaker is Patrick Minford, advisor to the lamented Liz Truss.
What can you say?

[ravenrover]

Saw the best description of Brexit benefits
It's like someone says they can give you a penis that will touch the floor, only to find out that they cut your legs off to achieve it

[Branton Red]

There are myriad reasons why car production in the UK has fallen since 2016.

If leaving the Single Market was a significant one then you'd expect this fall to have been disproportionately due to a reduction in exports to the EU.

56% of UK manufactured cars were exported to the EU in 2016; 58% of UK manufactured cars were exported to the EU in 2022. So that's a resounding NO to that proposition then.

The record year for manufacturing motor vehicles in the UK was 1972. Which is an incredible statistic given the rise in the number of vehicles on the roads since then and how more frequently people change their cars.

Remind me what happened on 1st January 1973?

[BillyStubbsTears]

False premise Branton.

There is no justification at all for your assertion: "If leaving the Single Market was a significant one then you'd expect this fall to have been disproportionately due to a reduction in exports to the EU."

In fact, leaving the SM doesn't only affect final sales of finished goods. It also affects supply lines of parts. In the case of the car market, that relies heavily on components being moved across borders. When we were in the SM, we had access to a huge market where those components were made and moved between countries without hinderance.

We've chosen to make it much harder for manufacturers in this country to access that component market.

I know Brexiters don't want to face these facts, but it is a fact that our car industry has been hammered since 2016.

In fairness, most car industries were hit by COVID and that's a part of the problem.

The French and Germans have both seen car production fall by 33% since 2016.

But ours has fallen by 55%.

And our numbers started falling straight after the Brexit vote, whereas those of France and Germany were rising pretty much up until COVID hit.

I do wonder what it will take, how many years of decline it will be before hardcore Brexiters are prepared to admit to themselves what they have done.

[albie]

The % of UK made vehicles supplied to export is a measure of the vulnerability of the industry to this change.

Any company facing the loss of well over half of its business, and an equal difficulty in obtaining key components and materials, is looking down the barrel of a gun. This applies to other sectors as well as the auto industry.

Why face these challenges, when a simple EU relocation removes the issue?

[big fat yorkshire pudding]

And still you all seem to miss the point on Honda, which is pretty much the bridging gap on those percentages.

Until our whole continent can compete with China we won't manufacture here.  But then we won't accept the wages and lifestyle they have so we won't ever be able to.

[Branton Red]

Billy

1) You're argument is that additional post-Brexit trading border costs are damaging the UK economy.

So the cost of manufacturing a car in the UK goes up due to increased import costs of parts. This applies equally wherever the car is sold.

But if the car is sold into the EU there are additional (border) costs of selling the car vs pre-Brexit - but no such extra costs for selling the car in the UK or outside the EU.

Therefore my assertion is clearly not a false premise. Arguing otherwise is both illogical and hilarious as you're undermining your own central thesis by doing so.

2) Equally illogical is attributing pre-2020 UK car production declines to leaving the Single Market (PS German motor vehicle manufacturing fell 23% between 2016 and 2019)

3) All that 55% v 33% difference you quote can be wholly attributable to non-Brexit related issues: -

a) Honda pulling out of Europe and shutting their Swindon plant in 2021 (Brexit decidedly not given as a factor by them)
b) Vauxhall winding down production of the Astra at Ellesmere Port - the factory being shut for most of 2022 as it is re-tooled to manufacture electric vans instead (a decision to upgrade securing the plants long term future made after 2016)
c) "The global shortage of semiconductors had a disproportionately adverse impact on Jaguar Land Rover’s production and sales compared to our competitors" as per JLRs President

There is no evidence (to date) that leaving the Single Market has 'hammered' the UK car industry either from manufacturing data or from comparative destination of sales data.

However the evidence is clear that joining the EEC didn't just decimate the UK car industry but, pertinently for the future of car manufacture in the UK even today, totally annihilated British ownership of car manufacturing plants.

[Branton Red]

Rejoiners!

It's like Gretel escaping from the witch one arm hacked off for stewing meat and the broiled head of her brother held in the other being enticed to re-enter the cottage on the promise of more gingerbread!

[Metalmicky]

This may help the situation if confirmed....

Jaguar Land Rover to pick UK over Spain for giant car battery plant

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-65698529

[Glyn_Wigley]

This may help the situation if confirmed....

Jaguar Land Rover to pick UK over Spain for giant car battery plant

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-65698529

This expected success has not been easily or cheaply won. The government has said that while it does not recognise a figure of £500m in reported subsidies, they concede that it is in the hundreds of millions of pounds.

[belton rover]

This may help the situation if confirmed....

Jaguar Land Rover to pick UK over Spain for giant car battery plant

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-65698529

Sshhh! Not on here.

[Bentley Bullet]

Now come on Belton, you know the rules on here, anything negative is because of Brexit and anything positive is nothing to do with Brexit!

Leave them to it like almost everyone else is doing these days!

[Glyn_Wigley]

Ah, so the government having to bribe a company with hundreds of millions of pounds to build in Britain is a Brexit benefit. I get it now.

[big fat yorkshire pudding]

Ah, so the government having to bribe a company with hundreds of millions of pounds to build in Britain is a Brexit benefit. I get it now.

You mean like European countries do?

[drfchound]

Just think of the long term benefits.

[Branton Red]

This may help the situation if confirmed....

Jaguar Land Rover to pick UK over Spain for giant car battery plant

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-65698529

Excellent news! With this and the battery plant at Nissan - easily the UKs 2 biggest motor vehicle manufacturers are committing long term to the UK.

As for the price tag to the Government - it's a bargain! And as others have stated not unusual internationally

9,000 people to be employed at the plant adding to the 30,000 current JLR UK employees it will support. So £13k per employee - never mind others employed in the UK in JLRs supply chain.

The Government should recoup this money in taxes fairly quickly

I'd criticised the Government earlier in the thread for not supporting the building of crucial battery plants sooner so credit is therefore due here.

[Ldr]

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-65707206

Must be Brexit!!

[wilts rover]

Ah, so the government having to bribe a company with hundreds of millions of pounds to build in Britain is a Brexit benefit. I get it now.

You mean like European countries do?

Ah, so we left Europe so we could be like Europe - that makes sense.

Just as much sense as a government who condem socialism and the state subsidising business-  using taxpayers money to subsidise a private business. Foreign owned ones at that.

Hmmm...

[Sprotyrover]

Ah, so the government having to bribe a company with hundreds of millions of pounds to build in Britain is a Brexit benefit. I get it now.

You mean like the Yanks are doing on a humungus scale!
You need to start looking beyond your nose!

[Sprotyrover]

Hey If you going to France by Car fill up in England first you will save on average approximately 45 a litre !

[Glyn_Wigley]

Ah, so the government having to bribe a company with hundreds of millions of pounds to build in Britain is a Brexit benefit. I get it now.

You mean like the Yanks are doing on a humungus scale!
You need to start looking beyond your nose!

You mean the Brexit pushers were completely wrong about us being stronger and holding all the cards after Brexit, and we still have to resort to bribing companies to come here instead of beating them off with a stick?

At the very least I would have thought the hundreds of millions being given to foreign companies would have been better spent on setting up a British company instead.

Still, people knew what they were voting for.

[big fat yorkshire pudding]

You think you could set a UK car company up for millions? Not a prayer.

What Brexit does allow is the UK government more flexibility to make UK specific choices that in some cases wouldn't have happened within the EU, that's exactly the point of Brexit.

[Sprotyrover]

Ah, so the government having to bribe a company with hundreds of millions of pounds to build in Britain is a Brexit benefit. I get it now.

You mean like the Yanks are doing on a humungus scale!
You need to start looking beyond your nose!

You mean the Brexit pushers were completely wrong about us being stronger and holding all the cards after Brexit, and we still have to resort to bribing companies to come here instead of beating them off with a stick?

At the very least I would have thought the hundreds of millions being given to foreign companies would have been better spent on setting up a British company instead.

Still, people knew what they were voting for.

No disrespect Glynn but you need to check up on what is going off in the United States and the EU which is formulating a rival scheme! They are both subsidising Industries.

[BillyStubbsTears]

You think you could set a UK car company up for millions? Not a prayer.

What Brexit does allow is the UK government more flexibility to make UK specific choices that in some cases wouldn't have happened within the EU, that's exactly the point of Brexit.

Hang on. Two days ago you were saying this was what European countries were doing.

Now you're saying Brexit allows us to do something different.

Which one is it?

[Glyn_Wigley]

You think you could set a UK car company up for millions? Not a prayer.

What Brexit does allow is the UK government more flexibility to make UK specific choices that in some cases wouldn't have happened within the EU, that's exactly the point of Brexit.

This is about a battery factory, not a car factory. Do keep up.

[albie]

It will be interesting to see if Tata insist on subsidised energy for their battery facility.
Quite why ordinary consumers should pick up the tab with a levy on leccy bills is a mystery to me.

The choice of battery chemistry is going to be interesting.
The standard Lithium Ion battery tech is being superceded quickly by the Chinese, moving towards Sodium and solid state options;
https://www.autoevolution.com/news/chinese-battery-manufacturer-started-mass-production-of-solid-state-batteries-215365.html

Making a commitment to the Betamax equivalent at the wrong time could be a costly error!

[BillyStubbsTears]

For the record, Betamax was a technically better video system. It got forced out by the Sony VHS marketing.

[albie]

Yes, Billy, but that is not the point I am making.

The issue is not to be locked in to a particular form factor and chemistry, when the landscape is evolving at pace.
So the Tata gigafactory needs to have flexibility as a core element, so it can be adapted to the rapid change in battery tech and economics.

The combined contribution of the proposed Tata factory and the Nissan facility in the NE is not sufficient to meet UK needs across the economy, of which EV is just one part.