Model prediction for 7th place

[BillyStubbsTears]

72 points as of tonight.

[Peebles Rover]

Yikes, so we’d have to win the next 5, or 11 wins on the trot!

[dickos1]

I can’t see Crewe getting more than 70, I think they’re the ones to catch.

[PDX_Rover]

Well, we’ve won the last 6. Why not?

[BillyStubbsTears]

Yikes, so we’d have to win the next 5, or 11 wins on the trot!

Realistically it was always likely to require that sort of run.

[Peebles Rover]

I can’t see Crewe getting more than 70, I think they’re the ones to catch.

I think they had 3 tricky games out of 4 when I looked

[Michael Shaw]

Live in hope, and wait and see what happens.

[idler]

Billy, if there is a plus and minus%,
is it more likely to be less rather than more points or doesn’t it work like that?

[GazLaz]

Billy, if there is a plus and minus%,
is it more likely to be less rather than more points or doesn’t it work like that?

Doesn’t really work like that same chance of it being a point more as a point less.

[idler]

Cheers Gaz.

[Sprotyrover]

I assume we need to keep winning and hope the others around us jostling for a play off place falter, has anybody been feverishly looking at rivals run ins?

[BillyStubbsTears]

Billy, if there is a plus and minus%,
is it more likely to be less rather than more points or doesn’t it work like that?

As Gaz says, it doesn't really work like that. It just extrapolates everybody's recent form through to the end of the season.

It kind of assumes that sides having exceptional runs of form (us, Crawley) get balanced out by sides having bad runs (Crewe, Barrow).

It absolutely doesn't say Crawley will keep on winning and Crewe not winning, which is why I say not to focus on a particular side.

There's no guarantee with this of course. Crewe, Barrow, Crawley and Walsall might all average 2 points a game from here on, in which case we are screwed. But that's unlikely.

For the record, since I started looking up, rather than down with this model, about 4-5 weeks ago, it's been consistently predicting 71-73 points for 7th place, apart from once briefly spiking at 75.

I think 72 is a decent bet, but it could be a bit higher or lower.

I think what it's saying is this:

If we get 15 points from the last 5 games, we're probably slightly odds on to grab 7th, but not guaranteed.

If we get 13 points, we're probably 2-3/1 against.

Anything less and it's very long odds against.

[Upton Rover]

I can’t see Crewe getting more than 70, I think they’re the ones to catch.

Crawley are the ones to catch for us

[normal rules]

Rovers to thump walsall 4-0 would level gd with them.
After the last few games, anything is possible.

[karlos]

I have
1 Stockport
2 Wrexham
3 mk dons
4 Mansfield
5 Crawley 75pts
6 Crewe 74pts
7 DRFC 73pts

[Padge_DRFC]

Look at Barrow's fixtures. They're the ones to catch I think.

[idler]

There is probably more pressure on those above us as it is theirs to lose. We are just still living the dream with (I hope) no recriminations if/when we lose. These last few games have been unbelievable. What a run after such a disjointed campaign in parts.

[big fat yorkshire pudding]

Of course some of those teams including us have to play each other, meaning some will get the points. Interesting though.

Highly unlikely we'll win all 5 and I think we have to.

[DonnyBazR0ver]

Of course some of those teams including us have to play each other, meaning some will get the points. Interesting though.

Highly unlikely we'll win all 5 and I think we have to.

So far we've been doing quite well in the unlikely stakes.

Gotta love every minute that's left of this season.

[EasyforDennis]

IF we do make that 7th place we will definitely be favourites to win the play offs.

[Filo]

IF we do make that 7th place we will definitely be favourites to win the play offs.

Was thinking that myself, the other three teams will be shitting it if we make it

[dickos1]

I can’t see Crewe getting more than 70, I think they’re the ones to catch.

Crawley are the ones to catch for us

I think Crawley will finish above Crewe comfortably

[POD]

I can’t see Crewe getting more than 70, I think they’re the ones to catch.

Crawley are the ones to catch for us

I think Crawley will finish above Crewe comfortably

I agree.   They have to play three of the bottom four in their last 5 games… Colchester, Sutton and Grimsby.   

Their other two games are v Barrow and Wrexham which are more difficult but I would agree that Crewe or even Barrow might be the ones to catch.   

[Arsenal Of The North]

Well, we’ve won the last 6. Why not?

Leeds won 15 on the bounce in arguably one of hardest leagues in the world, I’m sure mighty donny can muster 5 more wins

Come on you reds

[Chris Black come back]

They have a long and established record of cheating though, which thankfully we do not.

[drfchound]

I can’t see Crewe getting more than 70, I think they’re the ones to catch.

Crawley are the ones to catch for us

I think Crawley will finish above Crewe comfortably

I agree.   They have to play three of the bottom four in their last 5 games… Colchester, Sutton and Grimsby.   

Their other two games are v Barrow and Wrexham which are more difficult but I would agree that Crewe or even Barrow might be the ones to catch.

Sutton are in great recent form so that one won’t be easy either.

[drfchound]

I have
1 Stockport
2 Wrexham
3 mk dons
4 Mansfield
5 Crawley 75pts
6 Crewe 74pts
7 DRFC 73pts

If that turns out right we would play Mansfield in the play off semi final matches.

[Campsall rover]

I can’t see Crewe getting more than 70, I think they’re the ones to catch.

Crawley are the ones to catch for us

I think Crawley will finish above Crewe comfortably

I agree.   They have to play three of the bottom four in their last 5 games… Colchester, Sutton and Grimsby.   

Their other two games are v Barrow and Wrexham which are more difficult but I would agree that Crewe or even Barrow might be the ones to catch.

Colchester and Sutton are fighting for their lives. No easy games. Football is not played on paper.

[Lesonthewest]

I remember Grant saying a while ago we won't see the best of us until around January time, he was almost spot on, had he been right, we would be in the play offs now.

[ravenrover]

I have
1 Stockport
2 Wrexham
3 mk dons
4 Mansfield
5 Crawley 75pts
6 Crewe 74pts
7 DRFC 73pts

If that turns out right we would play Mansfield in the play off semi final matches.

MKD have played 2 games more than Mansfield,  and most of the other teams around them, with just a point in it