BST model - final update

[BillyStubbsTears]

I'm not sure it matters now, and I'm not sure how much weight to put on a probability-based model when there are so few permutations of results left.

But here goes anyway.

4th: 77 points
5th: 72
6th: 72
7th: 71
8th: 70
9th: 66
10th: 65
11th: 65
12th: 65
13th: 64
14th: 62
15th: 61
16th: 57
17th: 57
18th: 56
19th: 56
20th: 50
21st: 49
22nd: 45
23rd: 43
24th: 38

[BillyStubbsTears]

Obviously, all that matters is 7th place, so let's look a little closer.

The very  most that 7th place can now end up being is 74 points. That only happens if Crawley win all 3 remaining games AND Barrow pick up at least a draw and two wins from their other three games AND Crewe pick up at least a win and a draw in their final two games. That is a highly unlikely set of results, and I'd think the chances of that happening are something less than 1%.

The least it can be is 65 points, but that would require an even more unusual set of results:
Crawley to lose every game.
Donny and Gillingham to lose every game except drawing when they play each other
Walsall, Harrogate and Wimbledon not to win 4 points.
Bradford not to get 2 wins from their last 3 and
Notts C not to win all their last 3.
Again, that must be less than 1% chance.

66 points is very unlikely. It would require Crawley to get no more than 1 point, us no more than 2, Gillingham no more than 3 and Walsall, Wimbledon and Harrogate all not to get more than 4 points.

Everything else is up for grabs.


I'm now thinking 73+ points is probably not going to happen. Again it depends on a weird set of results. three of the following 4 would have to happen for that target to be hit.

Crawley winning all three
Barrow winning at least 2 of their last 4
Crewe winning one of their last 2
Us winning all three.

71 looks like the central point most likely.

Could be 70 or 72. That wouldn't be a massive surprise. Anything higher or lower now looks very unlikely.

What we can say is that if we DO win our last three, it is highly, highly unlikely that we could be pipped. Only by Crawley winning all their final 3, Barrow winning their other 2 and Crewe winning at least 1 of their last 2. Then it would come to GD.

[dknward2]

But we will win our last 3 so that gives us 73 points so up to 5th that would be perfect home in the second leg

[Butchers Red]

I would rather grab 7th so we can take 5 or 6 thousand to MK Dons away leg and play them off the park in BOTH halves, unlike league match when 1st half we didn't turn up.

[streathamdave]

I agree 72 should be enough or 71 with good goal difference so really for Donny its as you were 3 wins to make 73 and probably 6th spot I reckon. I still think we can do it though.

[philsky]

I would rather grab 7th so we can take 5 or 6 thousand to MK Dons away leg and play them off the park in BOTH halves, unlike league match when 1st half we didn't turn up.

THIS ^^^^

[BillyStubbsTears]

I'm not sure it matters now, and I'm not sure how much weight to put on a probability-based model when there are so few permutations of results left.

But here goes anyway.

4th: 77 points
5th: 72
6th: 72
7th: 71
8th: 70
9th: 66
10th: 65
11th: 65
12th: 65
13th: 64
14th: 62
15th: 61
16th: 57
17th: 57
18th: 56
19th: 56
20th: 50
21st: 49
22nd: 45
23rd: 43
24th: 38

Go on then. I  couldn't resist an update after last night.

4th: 77 points
5th: 72
6th: 72
7th: 71
8th: 69
9th: 68
10th: 65
11th: 65
12th: 65
13th: 64
14th: 62
15th: 60
16th: 57
17th: 56
18th: 56
19th: 56
20th: 49
21st: 48
22nd: 48
23rd: 43
24th: 38

[drfcsteve]

Personally, and based on nothing more than me guessing the results of the games left, I don’t think we’ll be comfortable unless we win all of our last 3, a tough ask.

Based on my guesswork there will only be 2 points between 5th (73) and 9th (71).

I wondered if a draw with Barrow and a win at Colchester and Gillingham would be enough, leaving us on 71. But, I think that would leave the door open for Crawley or Walsall to pip us to 7th, possibly on goal difference.

[colincramb]

Like I thought, that Walsall late goal means we probably have to win all 3 games

[adamtherover]

Like I thought, that Walsall late goal means we probably have to win all 3 games

Walsall have Bradford and Wimbledon to play, not an easy 6 pts...

[colincramb]

Like I thought, that Walsall late goal means we probably have to win all 3 games

Walsall have Bradford and Wimbledon to play, not an easy 6 pts...

It’s not, but it’s an easier assignment than we’ve got. They just need to win 2 to get to 71, we need to win 2 AND draw 1. Even then it comes down to goal difference