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Author Topic: Predicting the election result.  (Read 11937 times)

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Bentley Bullet

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Re: Predicting the election result.
« Reply #30 on June 01, 2024, 05:30:12 pm by Bentley Bullet »
Been out canvassing this morning for the Labour Party in the leafier part of our village.
Interesting how the majority aren’t interested in Politics and quickly close the door, and some are openly hostile.
One bloke answered the door, I said why I was knocking, he told me to F**k off.
Which is a first.


Well that's an easy one then.

Loads of people don't get what the point of canvassing is. For the most part, it's got sod all to do with trying to convert people. It's about trying to identify where your supporters live, so on polling day, you can knock on their door and give them a nudge to vote.

If someone's virulently not on your side, that's absolutely their right and you're not going to insult them by arguing the toss with them, unless they genuinely want a civilised, open discussion. Political canvassers aren't Jehovah's Witnesses.

Most people who don't want to talk to you will just say so, firmly but politely.

But you do get the obnoxious ones like you had today TT.
.... Not at all like the "civilised, open discussions" that are adopted on this forum then, where those not on your side are called racist, stupid, petulant, selfish, thick, fascist bas**rds etc.
« Last Edit: June 01, 2024, 05:33:15 pm by Bentley Bullet »



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Iberian Red

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  • Posts: 2236
Re: Predicting the election result.
« Reply #31 on June 01, 2024, 05:38:32 pm by Iberian Red »
I got offered some nylons for the missus last time I went there!


Fair swap.??

On topic, I do think Labour will win but realistically plenty of died in the wool Tories will believe the daily fail, so I reckon a majority of 50-80 seats.

It probably was.
However,they were more interested in some saucy copies of People’s Friend coastal views than the missus.

Election prediction,big tory loss and people claiming they have switched sides.

Iberian Red

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  • Posts: 2236
Re: Predicting the election result.
« Reply #32 on June 01, 2024, 05:40:23 pm by Iberian Red »
Been out canvassing this morning for the Labour Party in the leafier part of our village.
Interesting how the majority aren’t interested in Politics and quickly close the door, and some are openly hostile.
One bloke answered the door, I said why I was knocking, he told me to F**k off.
Which is a first.


Well that's an easy one then.

Loads of people don't get what the point of canvassing is. For the most part, it's got sod all to do with trying to convert people. It's about trying to identify where your supporters live, so on polling day, you can knock on their door and give them a nudge to vote.

If someone's virulently not on your side, that's absolutely their right and you're not going to insult them by arguing the toss with them, unless they genuinely want a civilised, open discussion. Political canvassers aren't Jehovah's Witnesses.

Most people who don't want to talk to you will just say so, firmly but politely.

But you do get the obnoxious ones like you had today TT.
.... Not at all like the "civilised, open discussions" that are adopted on this forum then, where those not on your side are called racist, stupid, petulant, selfish, thick, fascist bas**rds etc.

Yeah,leave those snowflake,loony lefties,woke,namby parties to it.

Not bitter at all?

Bentley Bullet

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  • Posts: 21726
Re: Predicting the election result.
« Reply #33 on June 01, 2024, 05:47:03 pm by Bentley Bullet »
Been out canvassing this morning for the Labour Party in the leafier part of our village.
Interesting how the majority aren’t interested in Politics and quickly close the door, and some are openly hostile.
One bloke answered the door, I said why I was knocking, he told me to F**k off.
Which is a first.


Well that's an easy one then.

Loads of people don't get what the point of canvassing is. For the most part, it's got sod all to do with trying to convert people. It's about trying to identify where your supporters live, so on polling day, you can knock on their door and give them a nudge to vote.

If someone's virulently not on your side, that's absolutely their right and you're not going to insult them by arguing the toss with them, unless they genuinely want a civilised, open discussion. Political canvassers aren't Jehovah's Witnesses.

Most people who don't want to talk to you will just say so, firmly but politely.

But you do get the obnoxious ones like you had today TT.
.... Not at all like the "civilised, open discussions" that are adopted on this forum then, where those not on your side are called racist, stupid, petulant, selfish, thick, fascist bas**rds etc.

Yeah,leave those snowflake,loony lefties,woke,namby parties to it.

Obviously not, hence the response TT got from some of the punters while out canvassing.

Iberian Red

  • Forum Member
  • Posts: 2236
Re: Predicting the election result.
« Reply #34 on June 01, 2024, 05:49:57 pm by Iberian Red »
Been out canvassing this morning for the Labour Party in the leafier part of our village.
Interesting how the majority aren’t interested in Politics and quickly close the door, and some are openly hostile.
One bloke answered the door, I said why I was knocking, he told me to F**k off.
Which is a first.
Did you knock at BB's,Hound's,Sellby date's,Sproty's,DD's,Ldr's,Belt's door by any chance?

tommy toes

  • Forum Member
  • Posts: 5485
Re: Predicting the election result.
« Reply #35 on June 01, 2024, 06:00:59 pm by tommy toes »
Been out canvassing this morning for the Labour Party in the leafier part of our village.
Interesting how the majority aren’t interested in Politics and quickly close the door, and some are openly hostile.
One bloke answered the door, I said why I was knocking, he told me to F**k off.
Which is a first.


Well that's an easy one then.

Loads of people don't get what the point of canvassing is. For the most part, it's got sod all to do with trying to convert people. It's about trying to identify where your supporters live, so on polling day, you can knock on their door and give them a nudge to vote.

If someone's virulently not on your side, that's absolutely their right and you're not going to insult them by arguing the toss with them, unless they genuinely want a civilised, open discussion. Political canvassers aren't Jehovah's Witnesses.

Most people who don't want to talk to you will just say so, firmly but politely.

But you do get the obnoxious ones like you had today TT.
.... Not at all like the "civilised, open discussions" that are adopted on this forum then, where those not on your side are called racist, stupid, petulant, selfish, thick, fascist bas**rds etc.

Yeah,leave those snowflake,loony lefties,woke,namby parties to it.

Obviously not, hence the response TT got from some of the punters while out canvassing.
I wouldn’t mind, but as BST says, you’re not out to convert people when out canvassing, I wouldnt  do it if we were.
Just trying to gauge the mood and offer any help on polling day if they need it.
So many people don’t seem to give a toss though.

danumdon

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  • Posts: 3954
Re: Predicting the election result.
« Reply #36 on June 01, 2024, 06:01:04 pm by danumdon »
Some of the polls quoting figures like  we've seen are scary and dangerous for democracy.

For an elected government to have way over 400 seats and the main opposition to be numbered in the 60's is quite frankly what you would expect in some tinpot, despot nations that have democracy as a veil for rampant dictatorial or fascist behaviour.

I'm not saying Starmer's party are either of the above but it does make you wonder where the direction of travel would be with a party having this kind of majority?

Would i be wrong in saying that a win like this would make any produced manifesto worthless after 22.01 on July 4th?

Would the temptation to strip out the manifesto that the election had been fought on to produce a new and much more radical direction be too great for Starmer to resist? or would it be approached in a sensible and pragmatic manner?

I'm thinking the former, Starmer is odds on to win with a massive majority, the vested interests in the back rooms will be tempted to go full on and attempt to correct some perceived wrongs very early and quickly, this in itself could well produce some kickback in the acceptance of this type of skulduggery.

The feelgood factor that many will have could change very quickly to something very different. Im hoping that sensible and clever people in the party fight this urge.

The economy is still very fragile with a great many grey clouds on the horizon, any one of them could turn at a moments notice and quite easily drop a massive pile of sh*t in our general direction.

People could turn and change very quickly in this type of scenario, sometimes going all in like this can turn jubilation into nationwide despair very quickly.

The warning signs are there and the party leadership need to be level headed and strong, something we have not yet seen, unfortunately.

We will soon know the direction of travel.

Iberian Red

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  • Posts: 2236
Re: Predicting the election result.
« Reply #37 on June 01, 2024, 06:09:49 pm by Iberian Red »
Some of the polls quoting figures like  we've seen are scary and dangerous for democracy.

For an elected government to have way over 400 seats and the main opposition to be numbered in the 60's is quite frankly what you would expect in some tinpot, despot nations that have democracy as a veil for rampant dictatorial or fascist behaviour.

I'm not saying Starmer's party are either of the above but it does make you wonder where the direction of travel would be with a party having this kind of majority?

Would i be wrong in saying that a win like this would make any produced manifesto worthless after 22.01 on July 4th?

Would the temptation to strip out the manifesto that the election had been fought on to produce a new and much more radical direction be too great for Starmer to resist? or would it be approached in a sensible and pragmatic manner?

I'm thinking the former, Starmer is odds on to win with a massive majority, the vested interests in the back rooms will be tempted to go full on and attempt to correct some perceived wrongs very early and quickly, this in itself could well produce some kickback in the acceptance of this type of skulduggery.

The feelgood factor that many will have could change very quickly to something very different. Im hoping that sensible and clever people in the party fight this urge.

The economy is still very fragile with a great many grey clouds on the horizon, any one of them could turn at a moments notice and quite easily drop a massive pile of sh*t in our general direction.

People could turn and change very quickly in this type of scenario, sometimes going all in like this can turn jubilation into nationwide despair very quickly.

The warning signs are there and the party leadership need to be level headed and strong, something we have not yet seen, unfortunately.

We will soon know the direction of travel.

I can summarise all those points and hypothetical questions.
You are wrong.
Why the constant hyperbolism,Dail Heil posting in everything you pit on here?

DonnyOsmond

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Re: Predicting the election result.
« Reply #38 on June 01, 2024, 06:15:36 pm by DonnyOsmond »
Wonder if Reforms success ends with the Tories being interested in supporting PR.

danumdon

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  • Posts: 3954
Re: Predicting the election result.
« Reply #39 on June 01, 2024, 06:19:13 pm by danumdon »
Some of the polls quoting figures like  we've seen are scary and dangerous for democracy.

For an elected government to have way over 400 seats and the main opposition to be numbered in the 60's is quite frankly what you would expect in some tinpot, despot nations that have democracy as a veil for rampant dictatorial or fascist behaviour.

I'm not saying Starmer's party are either of the above but it does make you wonder where the direction of travel would be with a party having this kind of majority?

Would i be wrong in saying that a win like this would make any produced manifesto worthless after 22.01 on July 4th?

Would the temptation to strip out the manifesto that the election had been fought on to produce a new and much more radical direction be too great for Starmer to resist? or would it be approached in a sensible and pragmatic manner?

I'm thinking the former, Starmer is odds on to win with a massive majority, the vested interests in the back rooms will be tempted to go full on and attempt to correct some perceived wrongs very early and quickly, this in itself could well produce some kickback in the acceptance of this type of skulduggery.

The feelgood factor that many will have could change very quickly to something very different. Im hoping that sensible and clever people in the party fight this urge.

The economy is still very fragile with a great many grey clouds on the horizon, any one of them could turn at a moments notice and quite easily drop a massive pile of sh*t in our general direction.

People could turn and change very quickly in this type of scenario, sometimes going all in like this can turn jubilation into nationwide despair very quickly.

The warning signs are there and the party leadership need to be level headed and strong, something we have not yet seen, unfortunately.

We will soon know the direction of travel.

I can summarise all those points and hypothetical questions.
You are wrong.
Why the constant hyperbolism,Dail Heil posting in everything you pit on here?

You just can't help yourself.

If you consider what i've posted as "constant hyperbolism,Dail Heil posting" then stand up and debate exactly why YOU think so.

Posting constant crap to everything that people post won't cut it fella, most already think your a one trick pony, and its gone well past its sell by.

BillyStubbsTears

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  • Posts: 40149
Re: Predicting the election result.
« Reply #40 on June 01, 2024, 06:35:40 pm by BillyStubbsTears »
Some of the polls quoting figures like  we've seen are scary and dangerous for democracy.

For an elected government to have way over 400 seats and the main opposition to be numbered in the 60's is quite frankly what you would expect in some tinpot, despot nations that have democracy as a veil for rampant dictatorial or fascist behaviour.

I'm not saying Starmer's party are either of the above but it does make you wonder where the direction of travel would be with a party having this kind of majority?

Would i be wrong in saying that a win like this would make any produced manifesto worthless after 22.01 on July 4th?

Would the temptation to strip out the manifesto that the election had been fought on to produce a new and much more radical direction be too great for Starmer to resist? or would it be approached in a sensible and pragmatic manner?

I'm thinking the former, Starmer is odds on to win with a massive majority, the vested interests in the back rooms will be tempted to go full on and attempt to correct some perceived wrongs very early and quickly, this in itself could well produce some kickback in the acceptance of this type of skulduggery.

The feelgood factor that many will have could change very quickly to something very different. Im hoping that sensible and clever people in the party fight this urge.

The economy is still very fragile with a great many grey clouds on the horizon, any one of them could turn at a moments notice and quite easily drop a massive pile of sh*t in our general direction.

People could turn and change very quickly in this type of scenario, sometimes going all in like this can turn jubilation into nationwide despair very quickly.

The warning signs are there and the party leadership need to be level headed and strong, something we have not yet seen, unfortunately.

We will soon know the direction of travel.

Here's a thought DD.

The polls are as they are because the Tories have been a car crash.

How's this for another thought? After being so bad for so long, it would be far more worrying for our democracy if the Tories won 300 seats.
« Last Edit: June 01, 2024, 06:41:56 pm by BillyStubbsTears »

drfchound

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  • Posts: 34099
Re: Predicting the election result.
« Reply #41 on June 01, 2024, 06:37:36 pm by drfchound »
Absolutely no idea. But would be very interested in seeing if the new MRP Poll (where they give a predicition for every seat) for the Daily Heil that leaves the Tories with only 66 seats is anything like accurate.

All three Doncaster seats to be won by Labour. Been a while since the Isle of Axholme (now in Doncaster East) had a Labour MP. And Sunak only just holding onto his:

https://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/blogs/ec_vipoll_20240531.html
Nick Fletcher will easily hold his seat and probably increase his majority Milliband and Whover will hold Theo seats, there will be a Labour majority of 30 seats , I don’t see many Tory voters voting for further tax increases!

No way will Fletcher hold his seat
Why not? He has inherited The isle of Axholme and
Has a lot of respect due to hard work in the rest of his area

He has no respect in Hatfield and Thorne

I was in the Bay Horse a couple of nights ago and there were plenty of people in there who said they will be voting for Fletcher.

10 people in the Bay Horse and it’s packed to the rafters, it must be the only pub around where punters declare their voting intentions

You obviously haven’t been in since it re opened if you think that ten is a big number in there.
Maybe midweek but the Ingram and Blue Bell are virtually deserted midweek.
The Ingram owner is a mate and says as much himself.

Herbert Anchovy

  • Forum Member
  • Posts: 2438
Re: Predicting the election result.
« Reply #42 on June 01, 2024, 06:37:59 pm by Herbert Anchovy »
Been out canvassing this morning for the Labour Party in the leafier part of our village.
Interesting how the majority aren’t interested in Politics and quickly close the door, and some are openly hostile.
One bloke answered the door, I said why I was knocking, he told me to F**k off.
Which is a first.

I remember going out canvassing way back in 1983 around Chingford way as I remember. It was a favour for a mate and it was a nightmare, we had all sorts of threats thrown at us, dogs let loose, threatened with cricket bats, the lot! Those people were not going to speak to a Labour canvasser that’s for sure.

drfchound

  • Forum Member
  • Posts: 34099
Re: Predicting the election result.
« Reply #43 on June 01, 2024, 06:45:17 pm by drfchound »
Some of the polls quoting figures like  we've seen are scary and dangerous for democracy.

For an elected government to have way over 400 seats and the main opposition to be numbered in the 60's is quite frankly what you would expect in some tinpot, despot nations that have democracy as a veil for rampant dictatorial or fascist behaviour.

I'm not saying Starmer's party are either of the above but it does make you wonder where the direction of travel would be with a party having this kind of majority?

Would i be wrong in saying that a win like this would make any produced manifesto worthless after 22.01 on July 4th?

Would the temptation to strip out the manifesto that the election had been fought on to produce a new and much more radical direction be too great for Starmer to resist? or would it be approached in a sensible and pragmatic manner?

I'm thinking the former, Starmer is odds on to win with a massive majority, the vested interests in the back rooms will be tempted to go full on and attempt to correct some perceived wrongs very early and quickly, this in itself could well produce some kickback in the acceptance of this type of skulduggery.

The feelgood factor that many will have could change very quickly to something very different. Im hoping that sensible and clever people in the party fight this urge.

The economy is still very fragile with a great many grey clouds on the horizon, any one of them could turn at a moments notice and quite easily drop a massive pile of sh*t in our general direction.

People could turn and change very quickly in this type of scenario, sometimes going all in like this can turn jubilation into nationwide despair very quickly.

The warning signs are there and the party leadership need to be level headed and strong, something we have not yet seen, unfortunately.

We will soon know the direction of travel.

I can summarise all those points and hypothetical questions.
You are wrong.
Why the constant hyperbolism,Dail Heil posting in everything you pit on here?

You just can't help yourself.

If you consider what i've posted as "constant hyperbolism,Dail Heil posting" then stand up and debate exactly why YOU think so.

Posting constant crap to everything that people post won't cut it fella, most already think your a one trick pony, and its gone well past its sell by.

Most of Iberians posts are insulting or fishing for responses dd.
Just look at his posts today alone and they sum him up to a tee.
Just ignore him and he gets more hyped up and posts even more crap.

Herbert Anchovy

  • Forum Member
  • Posts: 2438
Re: Predicting the election result.
« Reply #44 on June 01, 2024, 06:45:27 pm by Herbert Anchovy »
Absolutely no idea. But would be very interested in seeing if the new MRP Poll (where they give a predicition for every seat) for the Daily Heil that leaves the Tories with only 66 seats is anything like accurate.

All three Doncaster seats to be won by Labour. Been a while since the Isle of Axholme (now in Doncaster East) had a Labour MP. And Sunak only just holding onto his:

https://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/blogs/ec_vipoll_20240531.html
Nick Fletcher will easily hold his seat and probably increase his majority Milliband and Whover will hold Theo seats, there will be a Labour majority of 30 seats , I don’t see many Tory voters voting for further tax increases!

No way will Fletcher hold his seat
Why not? He has inherited The isle of Axholme and
Has a lot of respect due to hard work in the rest of his area

He has no respect in Hatfield and Thorne

Pal of mine who lives at Thorne says the same. Thinks the guy is a chancer who tries to hang onto the coat tails of those who actually do stuff. He voted for him last time out too, but now says he’s going back to Labour.

danumdon

  • Forum Member
  • Posts: 3954
Re: Predicting the election result.
« Reply #45 on June 01, 2024, 06:53:10 pm by danumdon »
Some of the polls quoting figures like  we've seen are scary and dangerous for democracy.

For an elected government to have way over 400 seats and the main opposition to be numbered in the 60's is quite frankly what you would expect in some tinpot, despot nations that have democracy as a veil for rampant dictatorial or fascist behaviour.

I'm not saying Starmer's party are either of the above but it does make you wonder where the direction of travel would be with a party having this kind of majority?

Would i be wrong in saying that a win like this would make any produced manifesto worthless after 22.01 on July 4th?

Would the temptation to strip out the manifesto that the election had been fought on to produce a new and much more radical direction be too great for Starmer to resist? or would it be approached in a sensible and pragmatic manner?

I'm thinking the former, Starmer is odds on to win with a massive majority, the vested interests in the back rooms will be tempted to go full on and attempt to correct some perceived wrongs very early and quickly, this in itself could well produce some kickback in the acceptance of this type of skulduggery.

The feelgood factor that many will have could change very quickly to something very different. Im hoping that sensible and clever people in the party fight this urge.

The economy is still very fragile with a great many grey clouds on the horizon, any one of them could turn at a moments notice and quite easily drop a massive pile of sh*t in our general direction.

People could turn and change very quickly in this type of scenario, sometimes going all in like this can turn jubilation into nationwide despair very quickly.

The warning signs are there and the party leadership need to be level headed and strong, something we have not yet seen, unfortunately.

We will soon know the direction of travel.

Here's a thought DD.

The polls are as they are because the Tories have been a car crash.

How's this for another thought? After being so bad for so long, it would be far more worrying for our democracy if the Tories won 300 seats.

Everyone's aware of the car crash that is the Tory party (especially the ones legging it pronto)and every man and his dog is looking for a vast improvement.

Is a vast improvement any party having 70% of the seats in the house?

BillyStubbsTears

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  • Posts: 40149
Re: Predicting the election result.
« Reply #46 on June 01, 2024, 07:00:34 pm by BillyStubbsTears »
DD.

Given the system that we have, genuinely what is the alternative?

By the way, Attlee's Govt won about 70% of the seats in 1945. I don't recall us being a banana republic then.

And frankly, your worries would be a lot more convincing if you'd raised them in 2019, when a clear majority of voters voted for parties who were not in favour of an immediate Brexit. Yet a party in favour of an immediate Brexit won 56% of the seats and was able to push through a deal that had never been discussed during the referendum.

I may be wrong, but I don't recall hearing you call that a threat to democracy.

Iberian Red

  • Forum Member
  • Posts: 2236
Re: Predicting the election result.
« Reply #47 on June 01, 2024, 07:20:24 pm by Iberian Red »
Some of the polls quoting figures like  we've seen are scary and dangerous for democracy.

For an elected government to have way over 400 seats and the main opposition to be numbered in the 60's is quite frankly what you would expect in some tinpot, despot nations that have democracy as a veil for rampant dictatorial or fascist behaviour.

I'm not saying Starmer's party are either of the above but it does make you wonder where the direction of travel would be with a party having this kind of majority?

Would i be wrong in saying that a win like this would make any produced manifesto worthless after 22.01 on July 4th?

Would the temptation to strip out the manifesto that the election had been fought on to produce a new and much more radical direction be too great for Starmer to resist? or would it be approached in a sensible and pragmatic manner?

I'm thinking the former, Starmer is odds on to win with a massive majority, the vested interests in the back rooms will be tempted to go full on and attempt to correct some perceived wrongs very early and quickly, this in itself could well produce some kickback in the acceptance of this type of skulduggery.

The feelgood factor that many will have could change very quickly to something very different. Im hoping that sensible and clever people in the party fight this urge.

The economy is still very fragile with a great many grey clouds on the horizon, any one of them could turn at a moments notice and quite easily drop a massive pile of sh*t in our general direction.

People could turn and change very quickly in this type of scenario, sometimes going all in like this can turn jubilation into nationwide despair very quickly.

The warning signs are there and the party leadership need to be level headed and strong, something we have not yet seen, unfortunately.

We will soon know the direction of travel.

I can summarise all those points and hypothetical questions.
You are wrong.
Why the constant hyperbolism,Dail Heil posting in everything you pit on here?

You just can't help yourself.

If you consider what i've posted as "constant hyperbolism,Dail Heil posting" then stand up and debate exactly why YOU think so.

Posting constant crap to everything that people post won't cut it fella, most already think your a one trick pony, and its gone well past its sell by.


Because you talk absolute bolloxs lad.
 And you get likes from similar minded cretins.
Every post you make is so hypothetical it becomes absurd.

Imagine if Diane Abbot became PM,chaos.

Imagine if Boris became PM,true Brit.
Imagine if one day you could talk some sense.
Ah,that's bollax too.

danumdon

  • Forum Member
  • Posts: 3954
Re: Predicting the election result.
« Reply #48 on June 01, 2024, 07:24:08 pm by danumdon »
DD.

Given the system that we have, genuinely what is the alternative?

By the way, Attlee's Govt won about 70% of the seats in 1945. I don't recall us being a banana republic then.

And frankly, your worries would be a lot more convincing if you'd raised them in 2019, when a clear majority of voters voted for parties who were not in favour of an immediate Brexit. Yet a party in favour of an immediate Brexit won 56% of the seats and was able to push through a deal that had never been discussed during the referendum.

I may be wrong, but I don't recall hearing you call that a threat to democracy.

Unfortunately the system we have is not an aid in this situation (i'd have said that if they were predicting 400+ seats for anyone)

The election in 1945 can be fairly put to one side as a complete one of. After what the country had just endured, anything other than a massive coming together of the whole nation would of been weird in the extreme.

The Brexit debacle (because that's what it was and is) was a failure of all sides to properly prepair the electorate for the referendum. With all the "hyperbole" from all sides you could say the average punter never had a chance to make a reasonable and informed decision from what was available. Not everyone is as knowing and knowledgeable in politics as some!

There should of been a super majority clause in the vote if it was to be more than just advisory. But i guess this is what you get when a government can ride roughshod over everything because of its perceived majority.

What's to stop another government riding roughshod over parliament with its "massive" majority?


Iberian Red

  • Forum Member
  • Posts: 2236
Re: Predicting the election result.
« Reply #49 on June 01, 2024, 07:31:38 pm by Iberian Red »
DD.

Given the system that we have, genuinely what is the alternative?

By the way, Attlee's Govt won about 70% of the seats in 1945. I don't recall us being a banana republic then.

And frankly, your worries would be a lot more convincing if you'd raised them in 2019, when a clear majority of voters voted for parties who were not in favour of an immediate Brexit. Yet a party in favour of an immediate Brexit won 56% of the seats and was able to push through a deal that had never been discussed during the referendum.

I may be wrong, but I don't recall hearing you call that a threat to democracy.

Unfortunately the system we have is not an aid in this situation (i'd have said that if they were predicting 400+ seats for anyone)

The election in 1945 can be fairly put to one side as a complete one of. After what the country had just endured, anything other than a massive coming together of the whole nation would of been weird in the extreme.

The Brexit debacle (because that's what it was and is) was a failure of all sides to properly prepair the electorate for the referendum. With all the "hyperbole" from all sides you could say the average punter never had a chance to make a reasonable and informed decision from what was available. Not everyone is as knowing and knowledgeable in politics as some!

There should of been a super majority clause in the vote if it was to be more than just advisory. But i guess this is what you get when a government can ride roughshod over everything because of its perceived majority.

What's to stop another government riding roughshod over parliament with its "massive" majority?

We've had 15 years of that.  You don't seem to have much of an opinion about it.
However,you have such strong opinions about what will(in your opinion),or possibly might/might not happen in the future.
You are Russel Grant,and I claim my fluffy jumper.

danumdon

  • Forum Member
  • Posts: 3954
Re: Predicting the election result.
« Reply #50 on June 01, 2024, 07:33:19 pm by danumdon »
Some of the polls quoting figures like  we've seen are scary and dangerous for democracy.

For an elected government to have way over 400 seats and the main opposition to be numbered in the 60's is quite frankly what you would expect in some tinpot, despot nations that have democracy as a veil for rampant dictatorial or fascist behaviour.

I'm not saying Starmer's party are either of the above but it does make you wonder where the direction of travel would be with a party having this kind of majority?

Would i be wrong in saying that a win like this would make any produced manifesto worthless after 22.01 on July 4th?

Would the temptation to strip out the manifesto that the election had been fought on to produce a new and much more radical direction be too great for Starmer to resist? or would it be approached in a sensible and pragmatic manner?

I'm thinking the former, Starmer is odds on to win with a massive majority, the vested interests in the back rooms will be tempted to go full on and attempt to correct some perceived wrongs very early and quickly, this in itself could well produce some kickback in the acceptance of this type of skulduggery.

The feelgood factor that many will have could change very quickly to something very different. Im hoping that sensible and clever people in the party fight this urge.

The economy is still very fragile with a great many grey clouds on the horizon, any one of them could turn at a moments notice and quite easily drop a massive pile of sh*t in our general direction.

People could turn and change very quickly in this type of scenario, sometimes going all in like this can turn jubilation into nationwide despair very quickly.

The warning signs are there and the party leadership need to be level headed and strong, something we have not yet seen, unfortunately.

We will soon know the direction of travel.

I can summarise all those points and hypothetical questions.
You are wrong.
Why the constant hyperbolism,Dail Heil posting in everything you pit on here?

You just can't help yourself.

If you consider what i've posted as "constant hyperbolism,Dail Heil posting" then stand up and debate exactly why YOU think so.

Posting constant crap to everything that people post won't cut it fella, most already think your a one trick pony, and its gone well past its sell by.


Because you talk absolute bolloxs lad.
 And you get likes from similar minded cretins.
Every post you make is so hypothetical it becomes absurd.

Imagine if Diane Abbot became PM,chaos.

Imagine if Boris became PM,true Brit.
Imagine if one day you could talk some sense.
Ah,that's bollax too.



I take it thats you not capable of debate then.

Good to know i don't need to waste an more time on you,

« Last Edit: June 01, 2024, 07:35:32 pm by danumdon »

Iberian Red

  • Forum Member
  • Posts: 2236
Re: Predicting the election result.
« Reply #51 on June 01, 2024, 07:39:24 pm by Iberian Red »
Some of the polls quoting figures like  we've seen are scary and dangerous for democracy.

For an elected government to have way over 400 seats and the main opposition to be numbered in the 60's is quite frankly what you would expect in some tinpot, despot nations that have democracy as a veil for rampant dictatorial or fascist behaviour.

I'm not saying Starmer's party are either of the above but it does make you wonder where the direction of travel would be with a party having this kind of majority?

Would i be wrong in saying that a win like this would make any produced manifesto worthless after 22.01 on July 4th?

Would the temptation to strip out the manifesto that the election had been fought on to produce a new and much more radical direction be too great for Starmer to resist? or would it be approached in a sensible and pragmatic manner?

I'm thinking the former, Starmer is odds on to win with a massive majority, the vested interests in the back rooms will be tempted to go full on and attempt to correct some perceived wrongs very early and quickly, this in itself could well produce some kickback in the acceptance of this type of skulduggery.

The feelgood factor that many will have could change very quickly to something very different. Im hoping that sensible and clever people in the party fight this urge.

The economy is still very fragile with a great many grey clouds on the horizon, any one of them could turn at a moments notice and quite easily drop a massive pile of sh*t in our general direction.

People could turn and change very quickly in this type of scenario, sometimes going all in like this can turn jubilation into nationwide despair very quickly.

The warning signs are there and the party leadership need to be level headed and strong, something we have not yet seen, unfortunately.

We will soon know the direction of travel.

I can summarise all those points and hypothetical questions.
You are wrong.
Why the constant hyperbolism,Dail Heil posting in everything you pit on here?

You just can't help yourself.

If you consider what i've posted as "constant hyperbolism,Dail Heil posting" then stand up and debate exactly why YOU think so.

Posting constant crap to everything that people post won't cut it fella, most already think your a one trick pony, and its gone well past its sell by.


Because you talk absolute bolloxs lad.
 And you get likes from similar minded cretins.
Every post you make is so hypothetical it becomes absurd.

Imagine if Diane Abbot became PM,chaos.

Imagine if Boris became PM,true Brit.
Imagine if one day you could talk some sense.
Ah,that's bollax too.



I take it thats you not capable of debate then.

Good to know i don't need to waste an more time on you,

DD,you have never once debated.
Unless of course you consider 'Ginger Minger' being a debate.
You just rant,het red in the face and post shite that even the Daily Heil editorial would turn away.
When you are capable of posting anything dirty of debate I will reply,til then keep going gammon.

danumdon

  • Forum Member
  • Posts: 3954
Re: Predicting the election result.
« Reply #52 on June 01, 2024, 07:45:58 pm by danumdon »
Some of the polls quoting figures like  we've seen are scary and dangerous for democracy.

For an elected government to have way over 400 seats and the main opposition to be numbered in the 60's is quite frankly what you would expect in some tinpot, despot nations that have democracy as a veil for rampant dictatorial or fascist behaviour.

I'm not saying Starmer's party are either of the above but it does make you wonder where the direction of travel would be with a party having this kind of majority?

Would i be wrong in saying that a win like this would make any produced manifesto worthless after 22.01 on July 4th?

Would the temptation to strip out the manifesto that the election had been fought on to produce a new and much more radical direction be too great for Starmer to resist? or would it be approached in a sensible and pragmatic manner?

I'm thinking the former, Starmer is odds on to win with a massive majority, the vested interests in the back rooms will be tempted to go full on and attempt to correct some perceived wrongs very early and quickly, this in itself could well produce some kickback in the acceptance of this type of skulduggery.

The feelgood factor that many will have could change very quickly to something very different. Im hoping that sensible and clever people in the party fight this urge.

The economy is still very fragile with a great many grey clouds on the horizon, any one of them could turn at a moments notice and quite easily drop a massive pile of sh*t in our general direction.

People could turn and change very quickly in this type of scenario, sometimes going all in like this can turn jubilation into nationwide despair very quickly.

The warning signs are there and the party leadership need to be level headed and strong, something we have not yet seen, unfortunately.

We will soon know the direction of travel.

I can summarise all those points and hypothetical questions.
You are wrong.
Why the constant hyperbolism,Dail Heil posting in everything you pit on here?

You just can't help yourself.

If you consider what i've posted as "constant hyperbolism,Dail Heil posting" then stand up and debate exactly why YOU think so.

Posting constant crap to everything that people post won't cut it fella, most already think your a one trick pony, and its gone well past its sell by.


Because you talk absolute bolloxs lad.
 And you get likes from similar minded cretins.
Every post you make is so hypothetical it becomes absurd.

Imagine if Diane Abbot became PM,chaos.

Imagine if Boris became PM,true Brit.
Imagine if one day you could talk some sense.
Ah,that's bollax too.



I take it thats you not capable of debate then.

Good to know i don't need to waste an more time on you,

DD,you have never once debated.
Unless of course you consider 'Ginger Minger' being a debate.
You just rant,het red in the face and post shite that even the Daily Heil editorial would turn away.
When you are capable of posting anything dirty of debate I will reply,til then keep going gammon.

Not quite sure what you've just posted there, sounds like some sad old loser busting a gut.

Your just reinforcing what everyone else on this forum thinks of you.

And its not pretty.

ChrisBx

  • Forum Member
  • Posts: 1450
Re: Predicting the election result.
« Reply #53 on June 01, 2024, 07:51:14 pm by ChrisBx »
Well then... a 6% swing towards Labour in tonight's Opinium poll. We're over a week into the election campaign and the Tories have made absolutely no progress in the polls. This is existential.

Iberian Red

  • Forum Member
  • Posts: 2236
Re: Predicting the election result.
« Reply #54 on June 01, 2024, 07:52:37 pm by Iberian Red »
Really?

Would that be reinforcing random bollox?

There's a few of you out there.

Iberian Red

  • Forum Member
  • Posts: 2236
Re: Predicting the election result.
« Reply #55 on June 01, 2024, 07:55:13 pm by Iberian Red »
 :woohoo:
Well then... a 6% swing towards Labour in tonight's Opinium poll. We're over a week into the election campaign and the Tories have made absolutely no progress in the polls. This is existential.

Thanks x  for getting it back on topic ,rather that people ranting about what might happen.
Labour will win,no doubt and Tories thay changes their votes with their overcoats will complain.

BillyStubbsTears

  • VSC Member
  • Posts: 40149
Re: Predicting the election result.
« Reply #56 on June 01, 2024, 07:57:51 pm by BillyStubbsTears »
DD.

It WASN'T a massive coming together of the nation in 1945. Churchill said if Labour won, they'd impose a state military police like the Gestapo. 36% of the electorate voted for him after he said that.

Labour won 47% of the vote and 62% of the seats.

That's how our system was always designed to work. It's supposed to give power to an Executive (the Govt) if they have enough seats to be able to push their legislation through Parliament.

wilts rover

  • Forum Member
  • Posts: 10354
Re: Predicting the election result.
« Reply #57 on June 01, 2024, 08:06:49 pm by wilts rover »
I read an interesting analysis that Labour's support is very broad but very shallow. It said people from all sorts of demographics will vote for them this time, but without any real attachment to them, their MPs, or their policies. No Blairmania this time.

If that's true Labour are on course for a thumping majority this time around. I'll go for around 300 seats. We'll see some big name Tories out of a job, I reckon. However that support will flake away quickly at the first sign of trouble, unless Labour makes quick progress that people can feel.

I would say that's true - and also what the polls are showing. People are not particuarly keen on Starmer's Labour - but they hate Sunak's Tories (other than in the Bay Horse in Thorne of course).

I have been out on the bike through deepest Wiltshire and Somerset today - about 75 - 80 miles. Think I saw two Labour posters, loads of Green Party, even more Lib Dems - not one Tory. Think I went through four, maybe five constituencies, all Tory bar one, and not one poster.

drfchound

  • Forum Member
  • Posts: 34099
Re: Predicting the election result.
« Reply #58 on June 01, 2024, 08:18:17 pm by drfchound »
Wilts, The Bay Horse is in Hatfield.
Oddly enough though I went to Thorne this morning to get some flowers to give to the wife of a friend who died last week.
I didn’t see one single Labour poster in a window despite walking half a mile from where I parked into the shopping street I visited.
I should say that I didn’t see any Tory ones either.

River Don

  • Forum Member
  • Posts: 8976
Re: Predicting the election result.
« Reply #59 on June 01, 2024, 08:22:54 pm by River Don »
Labour to win but not by as much as the polls suggest now.

Shy Tories.

 

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