Predicting the election result.

[wilts rover]

Some of the polls quoting figures like  we've seen are scary and dangerous for democracy.

For an elected government to have way over 400 seats and the main opposition to be numbered in the 60's is quite frankly what you would expect in some tinpot, despot nations that have democracy as a veil for rampant dictatorial or fascist behaviour.

I'm not saying Starmer's party are either of the above but it does make you wonder where the direction of travel would be with a party having this kind of majority?

Would i be wrong in saying that a win like this would make any produced manifesto worthless after 22.01 on July 4th?

Would the temptation to strip out the manifesto that the election had been fought on to produce a new and much more radical direction be too great for Starmer to resist? or would it be approached in a sensible and pragmatic manner?

I'm thinking the former, Starmer is odds on to win with a massive majority, the vested interests in the back rooms will be tempted to go full on and attempt to correct some perceived wrongs very early and quickly, this in itself could well produce some kickback in the acceptance of this type of skulduggery.

The feelgood factor that many will have could change very quickly to something very different. Im hoping that sensible and clever people in the party fight this urge.

The economy is still very fragile with a great many grey clouds on the horizon, any one of them could turn at a moments notice and quite easily drop a massive pile of sh*t in our general direction.

People could turn and change very quickly in this type of scenario, sometimes going all in like this can turn jubilation into nationwide despair very quickly.

The warning signs are there and the party leadership need to be level headed and strong, something we have not yet seen, unfortunately.

We will soon know the direction of travel.

That's fair enough but what have you seen from Starmer to think he would be like Johnson and Sunak?

Johnson tried to close down Parliament to get his way and when Sunak was told his policy was against International Law he tried to get International Law declared illegal!

I certainly dont agree with all Starmer has done and the way he has done it, to change the Labour Party, but he hasn't broken any laws? Or is likely to whatever majority he has.

I guess if he does act like a tinpot dictator as Johnson and Sunak have done then he can look forward to their fate in 5 years time.

As per hounds post above - what's the point in the personal attacks it's just boring. There is nothing whatsoever wrong with what danumdon has posted here. I dont agree with him, but it's fair enough of him to ask.

[wilts rover]

Wilts, The Bay Horse is in Hatfield.
Oddly enough though I went to Thorne this morning to get some flowers to give to the wife of a friend who died last week.
I didn’t see one single Labour poster in a window despite walking half a mile from where I parked into the shopping street I visited.
I should say that I didn’t see any Tory ones either.

Clearly I have never been in it! I have been in the one in Garthorpe - which closed about 20 years ago!

Cheers hound.

[Iberian Red]

Some of the polls quoting figures like  we've seen are scary and dangerous for democracy.

For an elected government to have way over 400 seats and the main opposition to be numbered in the 60's is quite frankly what you would expect in some tinpot, despot nations that have democracy as a veil for rampant dictatorial or fascist behaviour.

I'm not saying Starmer's party are either of the above but it does make you wonder where the direction of travel would be with a party having this kind of majority?

Would i be wrong in saying that a win like this would make any produced manifesto worthless after 22.01 on July 4th?

Would the temptation to strip out the manifesto that the election had been fought on to produce a new and much more radical direction be too great for Starmer to resist? or would it be approached in a sensible and pragmatic manner?

I'm thinking the former, Starmer is odds on to win with a massive majority, the vested interests in the back rooms will be tempted to go full on and attempt to correct some perceived wrongs very early and quickly, this in itself could well produce some kickback in the acceptance of this type of skulduggery.

The feelgood factor that many will have could change very quickly to something very different. Im hoping that sensible and clever people in the party fight this urge.

The economy is still very fragile with a great many grey clouds on the horizon, any one of them could turn at a moments notice and quite easily drop a massive pile of sh*t in our general direction.

People could turn and change very quickly in this type of scenario, sometimes going all in like this can turn jubilation into nationwide despair very quickly.

The warning signs are there and the party leadership need to be level headed and strong, something we have not yet seen, unfortunately.

We will soon know the direction of travel.

I can summarise all those points and hypothetical questions.
You are wrong.
Why the constant hyperbolism,Dail Heil posting in everything you pit on here?

You just can't help yourself.

If you consider what i've posted as "constant hyperbolism,Dail Heil posting" then stand up and debate exactly why YOU think so.

Posting constant crap to everything that people post won't cut it fella, most already think your a one trick pony, and its gone well past its sell by.

Most of Iberians posts are insulting or fishing for responses dd.
Just look at his posts today alone and they sum him up to a tee.
Just ignore him and he gets more hyped up and posts even more crap.

Lovely post old lad

[Sprotyrover]

Some of the polls quoting figures like  we've seen are scary and dangerous for democracy.

For an elected government to have way over 400 seats and the main opposition to be numbered in the 60's is quite frankly what you would expect in some tinpot, despot nations that have democracy as a veil for rampant dictatorial or fascist behaviour.

I'm not saying Starmer's party are either of the above but it does make you wonder where the direction of travel would be with a party having this kind of majority?

Would i be wrong in saying that a win like this would make any produced manifesto worthless after 22.01 on July 4th?

Would the temptation to strip out the manifesto that the election had been fought on to produce a new and much more radical direction be too great for Starmer to resist? or would it be approached in a sensible and pragmatic manner?

I'm thinking the former, Starmer is odds on to win with a massive majority, the vested interests in the back rooms will be tempted to go full on and attempt to correct some perceived wrongs very early and quickly, this in itself could well produce some kickback in the acceptance of this type of skulduggery.

The feelgood factor that many will have could change very quickly to something very different. Im hoping that sensible and clever people in the party fight this urge.

The economy is still very fragile with a great many grey clouds on the horizon, any one of them could turn at a moments notice and quite easily drop a massive pile of sh*t in our general direction.

People could turn and change very quickly in this type of scenario, sometimes going all in like this can turn jubilation into nationwide despair very quickly.

The warning signs are there and the party leadership need to be level headed and strong, something we have not yet seen, unfortunately.

We will soon know the direction of travel.

I can summarise all those points and hypothetical questions.
You are wrong.
Why the constant hyperbolism,Dail Heil posting in everything you pit on here?

You just can't help yourself.

If you consider what i've posted as "constant hyperbolism,Dail Heil posting" then stand up and debate exactly why YOU think so.

Posting constant crap to everything that people post won't cut it fella, most already think your a one trick pony, and its gone well past its sell by.

Most of Iberians posts are insulting or fishing for responses dd.
Just look at his posts today alone and they sum him up to a tee.
Just ignore him and he gets more hyped up and posts even more crap.

Lovely post old lad

The Truth hurts Iberian aye!

[SydneyRover]

I predict there will be tears at bedtime for some on here come July 4.

[ncRover]

Labour to win but not by as much as the polls suggest now.

Shy Tories.

Thank you for getting this back on topic. That is indeed a recurring phenomenon.

I think there is potential for Labour point loss if they are challenged on the details of their GB energy plan. It is currently just rhetoric.

It isn’t being branded as “net zero” it’s been branded as “clean energy”. But… Speaking to BBC Radio Scotland, Sir Keir said Labour was not planning to "turn the pipes off instantaneously", adding oil and gas would be part of the UK's "energy mix for decades to come". So how exactly is this revolutionary compared to the Tories’ energy policy?

I think they another potential challenge to Labour is whether their promise to take £5 billion through clamping down on tax avoidance through closing non-dom loops is fund their NHS targets when they aren’t going to raise any income taxes or national insurance. The NHS isn’t an efficient beast and things will likely end up costing more than they realise. Of course there previous record is good, but it isn’t the late 90s / early 00s anymore.

There is also a chance for their private school tax plan to put more pressure on the state education system through smaller private schools going bankrupt. And then in the long run, if there’s less to tax it’s less funds raised.

Just to be clear I’m not necessarily knocking the intentions, but they have to robust. Or else voters who prioritise  “sound economics” could go back to the Conservatives. That’s more of a threat to Labour quest for power than losing those on the left-wing fringes to a small handful of Greens and Independents.

[SydneyRover]

Were there any 'shy tories' around in 97?

[ncRover]

Were there any 'shy tories' around in 97?

Not sure but the Labour lead did significantly narrow in the weeks before the GE. Click on “results”.

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_1997_United_Kingdom_general_election

The difference here is that the Conservative Party are performing a lot worse than they did in the mid-90s.

But as mentioned on another post, the Labour support is potentially quite shallow. I saw Tom Harwood suggest that this election was about “punishment” more than “policy” and he may have a point to some degree. Not for whole electorate but the swing voters.

[SydneyRover]

So there could be some 'shy labour' voters?

I would think there are many voters across the political spectrum that don't want to declare who they are going to vote for.

[ncRover]

So there could be some 'shy labour' voters?

I would think there are many voters across the political spectrum that don't want to declare who they are going to vote for.

You mean some of the indignant hard-left may just end up voting Labour despite their current protestations?

It might not seem it on here or in some people’s echo chambers but they are nowhere near as important or numerous as centrist swing voters, especially in this FPTP system we have.

[mugnapper]

Margaret Beckett once knocked on my door whilst I was watching a particularly interesting, well-acted episode of 'Doctors'.
I didn't answer.
You don't want to encourage that type of behaviour do you?
I mean who knocks on someone's door without calling ahead to make an appointment?
(Although I may possibly make an exception in Tommy Toes case).

[tommy toes]

Margaret Beckett once knocked on my door whilst I was watching a particularly interesting, well-acted episode of 'Doctors'.
I didn't answer.
You don't want to encourage that type of behaviour do you?
I mean who knocks on someone's door without calling ahead to make an appointment?
(Although I may possibly make an exception in Tommy Toes case).

I wish Margaret would have knocked on my door Mug.
I’d have expressed my deep sympathy for the cruel murder of her dad Thomas A

[SydneyRover]

So there could be some 'shy labour' voters?

I would think there are many voters across the political spectrum that don't want to declare who they are going to vote for.

You mean some of the indignant hard-left may just end up voting Labour despite their current protestations?

It might not seem it on here or in some people’s echo chambers but they are nowhere near as important or numerous as centrist swing voters, especially in this FPTP system we have.

No I mean exactly what I posted, everyone wants to back a winner and there could be plenty waiting till the last minute that go down as undecided that make their mind up when the result is beyond doubt.

[BillyStubbsTears]

NC

Genuine question.

After the past 14 years, how is any voter who seriously prioritised "sound economics" ever going to support the Tories again?

[wilts rover]

Were there any 'shy tories' around in 97?

Not sure but the Labour lead did significantly narrow in the weeks before the GE. Click on “results”.

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_1997_United_Kingdom_general_election

The difference here is that the Conservative Party are performing a lot worse than they did in the mid-90s.

But as mentioned on another post, the Labour support is potentially quite shallow. I saw Tom Harwood suggest that this election was about “punishment” more than “policy” and he may have a point to some degree. Not for whole electorate but the swing voters.

I would disagree with your assesment of Labour support being 'shallow'. The Labour support is entirely made up of people who dislike the Tories and want to vote to get them out - that's very clear whatever Tom Harwood says. OK some may vote tactically to achieve that, but it's certain the Labour vote is solid.

What's less clear is what the other voters who have abandonded the Tories, the Don't Knows, Won't Vote, Reform voters will do. Do they also want to punish the Tories - or can Sunak win them back. These are the people he is aiming to get onside - and it's not looking good for him at the moment. But yes it could still change, there is plenty of time yet.

[Donnywolf]

I was asked yesterday if I knew ANY person who voted to Leave but now says they made an error , or mistake and now regret voting the way they did and if they got another Vote they would choose rejoin

Of all the people known to the lady asking me the question she knew of nobody herself

I said actually I do know 1 person who was saying they had made a bad error 18 months after voting , but only that one

I don't know if anybody on here has said they would change the way they voted or indeed know anyone that would now

I tend not to read the Political threads or other threads that degenerate into Political debates because I have often said people won't change the way I vote and I wouldn't expect anyone to change their minds because of anything I say

[BillyStubbsTears]

Were there any 'shy tories' around in 97?

Not sure but the Labour lead did significantly narrow in the weeks before the GE. Click on “results”.

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_1997_United_Kingdom_general_election

The difference here is that the Conservative Party are performing a lot worse than they did in the mid-90s.

But as mentioned on another post, the Labour support is potentially quite shallow. I saw Tom Harwood suggest that this election was about “punishment” more than “policy” and he may have a point to some degree. Not for whole electorate but the swing voters.

I would disagree with your assesment of Labour support being 'shallow'. The Labour support is entirely made up of people who dislike the Tories and want to vote to get them out - that's very clear whatever Tom Harwood says. OK some may vote tactically to achieve that, but it's certain the Labour vote is solid.

What's less clear is what the other voters who have abandonded the Tories, the Don't Knows, Won't Vote, Reform voters will do. Do they also want to punish the Tories - or can Sunak win them back. These are the people he is aiming to get onside - and it's not looking good for him at the moment. But yes it could still change, there is plenty of time yet.

Here is the real existential problem for the Tories. The blue boxes in that rightmost column are going to get more numerous for the next 3-4 elections.

If they had any strategic sense whatsoever, they'd have written off this Election a year ago and started the long, hard process of figuring out how to shape Toryism so it appeals to people below 65.

But they haven't even tried.

They are a party packed with second raters and spivs. And they've gone all in on appealing to today's pensioners with Class War b*llocks.

They are in a very, very serious position. Now.

Serious question; as their old supporters die out, who out of today's younger people is ever going to vote for them?

[danumdon]

NC

Genuine question.

After the past 14 years, how is any voter who seriously prioritised "sound economics" ever going to support the Tories again?

I would imagine a great many Tories are agonising over that very thought. What would someone like that do in this situation?

Id say that a great many will be struggling to know what to do, do they abstain, hold their nose and vote for Labour or Liberal or do they succumb to the dark side and vote Reform?

I'd imagine its pretty obvious to a great many on the right that some sort of Realignment is required (just as Starmer is on the verge of achieving on the left) these broad churches have muddled along for far too long for the electorate to persevere with.

Its going to depend on how many in the centre right either stay home or vote accordingly to punish this dire and discredited government as to where the majority will fall. If it's the former then it may be in the expected range(200/250) if its the latter then it could well be anything approaching a total wipeout(less than 70)

Just for reference, i don't believe what any are currently stating as their policies is true. I think we will have to wait to see what manifests itself given time and what's about to take place. Time will be needed to see things settle down and to analyse what the parties real direction of travel is.

I'm still to be convinced of any of these at this time.

[ncRover]

So there could be some 'shy labour' voters?

I would think there are many voters across the political spectrum that don't want to declare who they are going to vote for.

You mean some of the indignant hard-left may just end up voting Labour despite their current protestations?

It might not seem it on here or in some people’s echo chambers but they are nowhere near as important or numerous as centrist swing voters, especially in this FPTP system we have.

No I mean exactly what I posted, everyone wants to back a winner and there could be plenty waiting till the last minute that go down as undecided that make their mind up when the result is beyond doubt.

There’s no evidence of that happening in recent history really when looking at polling in elections with clear favourites.

The Tories kept a consistent ~10% lead throughout the 2019 election campaign and won on about that. But the dynamics of that election were politically unique with “getting Brexit done”. The narrow lead throughout 2010 for the Tories never really changed either.

No shy tories in 2017, but May bottled a 20% lead down to 2%. She was clear favourite.

2015 looked neck and neck until shy tories came out of nowhere and delivered a 6% Tory lead. Same in 1992.

For Labour this election is most similar to 1997. Which you brought up and I showed that their lead reduced slightly over time.

Like I said in the OP. A 1997 type majority is more likely than a 400 seat majority. What do you reckon?

[bpoolrover]

Were there any 'shy tories' around in 97?

Not sure but the Labour lead did significantly narrow in the weeks before the GE. Click on “results”.

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_1997_United_Kingdom_general_election

The difference here is that the Conservative Party are performing a lot worse than they did in the mid-90s.

But as mentioned on another post, the Labour support is potentially quite shallow. I saw Tom Harwood suggest that this election was about “punishment” more than “policy” and he may have a point to some degree. Not for whole electorate but the swing voters.

I would disagree with your assesment of Labour support being 'shallow'. The Labour support is entirely made up of people who dislike the Tories and want to vote to get them out - that's very clear whatever Tom Harwood says. OK some may vote tactically to achieve that, but it's certain the Labour vote is solid.

What's less clear is what the other voters who have abandonded the Tories, the Don't Knows, Won't Vote, Reform voters will do. Do they also want to punish the Tories - or can Sunak win them back. These are the people he is aiming to get onside - and it's not looking good for him at the moment. But yes it could still change, there is plenty of time yet.

Here is the real existential problem for the Tories. The blue boxes in that rightmost column are going to get more numerous for the next 3-4 elections.

If they had any strategic sense whatsoever, they'd have written off this Election a year ago and started the long, hard process of figuring out how to shape Toryism so it appeals to people below 65.

But they haven't even tried.

They are a party packed with second raters and spivs. And they've gone all in on appealing to today's pensioners with Class War b*llocks.

They are in a very, very serious position. Now.

Serious question; as their old supporters die out, who out of today's younger people is ever going to vote for them?

it doesnt work like that thou, i think most people vote for who they think they will be better off with in power, i know so many people in there younger days who voted labour as they got older they switched to tories, people change when they habe earned money they want to keep it

[BillyStubbsTears]

That's because the Tories used to offer an economic path that did work for a large proportion of the working age population.

This lot has delivered an utter disaster for most younger workers. And their approval rating among people of working age, in particular those 18-50 is at levels lower than anything we have ever seen for a major party.

Why should a 40 year old who is never going to be able to buy a house or have a decent pension move to supporting the Tories by the time they are 70?

And then there's the B word.

Brexit was predominantly a thing supported by the old. The young didn't and don't want it. That's the defining legacy of this lot in the eyes of many younger voters. And folk don't forget.

[bpoolrover]

I agree bst, hopefully labour will deliver what the tories have not, people will want to see that change thou and quickly, yes the greens are ahead of them and reform just behind in the under 50s, the over 50s is still very close thou and without reform they would probably be ahead

[ChrisBx]

That's because the Tories used to offer an economic path that did work for a large proportion of the working age population.

This lot has delivered an utter disaster for most younger workers. And their approval rating among people of working age, in particular those 18-50 is at levels lower than anything we have ever seen for a major party.

Why should a 40 year old who is never going to be able to buy a house or have a decent pension move to supporting the Tories by the time they are 70?

And then there's the B word.

Brexit was predominantly a thing supported by the old. The young didn't and don't want it. That's the defining legacy of this lot in the eyes of many younger voters. And folk don't forget.

Add to that anyone with a mortgage who saw their monthly repayments jump due to the actions of Liz Truss. There will be a significant number of people whose fixed terms have recently ended or are due to end before the election. How many of those will blame the Tories for their extra £200 monthly expense?

[BillyStubbsTears]

Chris.

I'd agree with that.

There's evidence that a large proportion of people hark back to their youth when thinking about parties. Remembering front page negative issues that happened then.

So, some Tory supporting pensioners still talking of the IMF crisis and Winter of Discontent as reasons why Labour is incompetent.

I suspect that today's 20 and 30 year olds, when they are 70, will still remember that the Tory party put a clearly mentally ill women in Number 10 for a Clough-nite, and she damn well nearly brought the whole economy down in that time.

Things like that tend to stick in the mind.

[drfchound]

I was asked yesterday if I knew ANY person who voted to Leave but now says they made an error , or mistake and now regret voting the way they did and if they got another Vote they would choose rejoin

Of all the people known to the lady asking me the question she knew of nobody herself

I said actually I do know 1 person who was saying they had made a bad error 18 months after voting , but only that one

I don't know if anybody on here has said they would change the way they voted or indeed know anyone that would now

I tend not to read the Political threads or other threads that degenerate into Political debates because I have often said people won't change the way I vote and I wouldn't expect anyone to change their minds because of anything I say

I agree with most of what you have written there Wolfie.
With regards to trying to change the way people vote, there are some on here who do write in such a way that they appear to be consistently trying to do just that.
We all know that they are LP through and through but it is relentless.
On the Brexit thing, there was one poster on here who mentioned that they regret the way they voted but I can’t remember who it was.

[IDM]

I’m sure there was at least one poster on here who said he/she wouldn’t vote for the party/outcome they actually believed in, simply because some folks in here they dislike and argued with (about anything) would vote the same way.!!

[Filo]

I was asked yesterday if I knew ANY person who voted to Leave but now says they made an error , or mistake and now regret voting the way they did and if they got another Vote they would choose rejoin

Of all the people known to the lady asking me the question she knew of nobody herself

I said actually I do know 1 person who was saying they had made a bad error 18 months after voting , but only that one

I don't know if anybody on here has said they would change the way they voted or indeed know anyone that would now

I tend not to read the Political threads or other threads that degenerate into Political debates because I have often said people won't change the way I vote and I wouldn't expect anyone to change their minds because of anything I say

I voted leave and now regret it, I would vote to rejoin

[BillyStubbsTears]

There's a lot more like you Filo.
https://www.whatukthinks.org/eu/questions/if-a-second-eu-referendum-were-held-today-how-would-you-vote/

Fascinatingly, the big move in opinion seems to have taken place in 2022. I don't recall there being any EU-related big issue then. But what there was, was the realisation that the Tories were an utter car crash.

The Year of Three PMs.
Kamikwaze's Budget
Putting a mentally ill person in Number 10.
Johnson finally and unequivocally to anyone bar Dorries and BB unveiled as a career liar.

I wonder if a chunk of the population woke up that year and realised they'd been conned in 2016?

[ncRover]

I was asked yesterday if I knew ANY person who voted to Leave but now says they made an error , or mistake and now regret voting the way they did and if they got another Vote they would choose rejoin

Of all the people known to the lady asking me the question she knew of nobody herself

I said actually I do know 1 person who was saying they had made a bad error 18 months after voting , but only that one

I don't know if anybody on here has said they would change the way they voted or indeed know anyone that would now

I tend not to read the Political threads or other threads that degenerate into Political debates because I have often said people won't change the way I vote and I wouldn't expect anyone to change their minds because of anything I say

I voted leave and now regret it, I would vote to rejoin

What made you regret it Filo?

[auckleyflyer]

I personally think it will still be closer than anyone can imagine. People don't like change, no matter how bad the current lot are there all some 30yr olds know?!
In my constituency Newquay/st Austell traditional liberal but been Tory for last two elections. The three way split did it's job last time and Torys stayed in. Many areas need to be very tactical. I almost wish labour wouldn't stand here.
Throw in reform party and a growing green movement and the shear splitting of the votes could really tell??
I predict another coalition! Not sure which way but wouldn't be surprised if Tories stayed in by the skins of their teeth.