Last two games of the season

[Nudga]

Bradford at home and Notts away.

Those two also play each other on 18th April.

This is shaping up to be absolutely huge in deciding automatics.
Can see the Notts away day being like the Brentford match.

[NigelJ]

No, it'll be a massive party from the start, as we will have secured the title against Bradford.

[GazLaz]

I’ve had to book a holiday around that time. I’m tactically missing the Bradford game to allow me to get to Notts. Any later and it could have been the playoffs I miss and any earlier I could have missed two games with the Easter fixtures. Hopefully it isn’t too much of a significant game to miss!

[Barmby Rover]

Hopefully it will just be celebratory tour, there is always the possibility that things could be stitched up by that stage. Watch what happens tonight!

[big fat yorkshire pudding]

I’ve had to book a holiday around that time. I’m tactically missing the Bradford game to allow me to get to Notts. Any later and it could have been the playoffs I miss and any earlier I could have missed two games with the Easter fixtures. Hopefully it isn’t too much of a significant game to miss!

I fundamentally refused any holidays in April and May for this reason.

[Reg of the Rovers]

Might be a queue at the ticket office for the Notts County tickets! Keep totting up those points!

[GazLaz]

I’ve had to book a holiday around that time. I’m tactically missing the Bradford game to allow me to get to Notts. Any later and it could have been the playoffs I miss and any earlier I could have missed two games with the Easter fixtures. Hopefully it isn’t too much of a significant game to miss!

I fundamentally refused any holidays in April and May for this reason.

It’s a mine field around that time with the fixtures. I’d generally go straight after the last game to get one in between then and any tournament starting. These potential playoff seasons are a nightmare!

[streathamdave]

We will go up automatic Gaz. Sticking with my prediction at start of season that we will go up in 3rd. 80 points should do it and we will make that.

[GazLaz]

We will go up automatic Gaz. Sticking with my prediction at start of season that we will go up in 3rd. 80 points should do it and we will make that.

Hopefully Dave.

[Alan Southstand]

OK, it’s a bit early for this, but just to put some reality on the above points total:

DRFC

28 games played.    49 points.       Ratio:  1.75

18 games left.         32 points.       Same ratio

Total =.                   81 points

[Draytonian III]

The kick off for the last game of season will be moved for Sky , they will want the last matches to kick off at 12.30 or 17.30 or even dinner on the Sunday, remember Hartlepool away under Daddy’s little soldier 17.00 kick off

[DonnyBazR0ver]

OK, it’s a bit early for this, but just to put some reality on the above points total:

DRFC

28 games played.    49 points.       Ratio:  1.75

18 games left.         32 points.       Same ratio

Total =.                   81 points

I've been thinking the same and obviously, we'd like them in the bank ASAP. By my reckoning 10 or probably 11 wins from 18 will do it. So we just need to tick them off and not worry too much about what others are doing.

[Dutch Uncle]

OK, it’s a bit early for this, but just to put some reality on the above points total:

DRFC

28 games played.    49 points.       Ratio:  1.75

18 games left.         32 points.       Same ratio

Total =.                   81 points

A bit of historical data for FL Tier4 here concerning the 43 seasons since 3 points per win was introduced in 1981-82:

Average points by 3rd place team: 82.1; (Highest 91, lowest 75)
Average points by 4th place team: 79.2: (Highest 88, lowest 72)

So, 88 was insufficient on one occasion, but 75 was actually enough on two occasions
(note: for seasons with less than 46 games, ppg used to give a projected total for 46 games)

Will it be a higher or lower number required this year?

If Walsall keep up form, and no-one outside the top 8 (e.g. Chesterfield, Grimsby, MKD?) has a run nearly as good as ours last season, then it looks like 2 out of 7 for automatic places.  IMHO the chances are high that two of those teams (we may or may not be one of them) average around 2 points a game for the run in. If we average exactly 2 ppg, we will finish on 85. My guess (and it is no more than that) is that at least 83 points will be needed.

I was wildly wrong about our prospects last year and wrote off of chances of playoffs early in our 10 game ‘once in a lifetime’ winning run. It could happen again to someone, but probably not to two teams.

If the above guess is correct we would need 34 points from 18, something like W10 D4 L4.

I am tempted to say it is going down to the wire, but if Walsall keep it up and two teams excel there could be a gap between 3rd and 4th. Guessing is a mugs game 

[Chris Black come back]

We play MK Dons tomorrow. If we win, that would be four in a row. As a guide, win four in the ten game run last season was the 0-2 at Crawley Town on Good Friday.

[andy didcott]

Walsall,downwards spiral.
Rovers, upwards spiral.
We will be champions.

[Peebles Rover]

Our run in looks tough. In the last 10 games of the season we play all but one of the present top 8 teams.

[Alan Southstand]

Tricky Games left:

At home

MK Dons
Grimsby
Walsall
Wimbledon
Bradford

Away

Chesterfield
Bromley
Crewe
Salford
Notts County

[Padge_DRFC]

Biggest away end in the league Notts county

[IDM]

We are second in the league with a great squad.  Maybe the other clubs in the top 8/10 see us as a tough fixture too.?

[Alan Southstand]

They probably do, IDM, no-one is querying that. The maths of it is quite straightforward, though, there’s no getting away from that. As already mentioned above, I’ve reasoned we could end up with 81 points and Dutch has, quite rightly, suggested that still may not be enough to get 3rd place.

18 games and out of them I’ve suggested 10 ‘tricky’ ones. If we assume we win the other 8 that gives us 24 pts. So that would leave 7-10 points to get from those 10 tricky games. It’s do-able, but only if we win the 8 (on paper) less tricky ones.

[IDM]

Any game can be a tricky one, regardless of the relative positions in the table.

As we saw last season, we can on our day beat anyone in the division.  It's one game at a time for me..

[Dutch Uncle]

They probably do, IDM, no-one is querying that. The maths of it is quite straightforward, though, there’s no getting away from that. As already mentioned above, I’ve reasoned we could end up with 81 points and Dutch has, quite rightly, suggested that still may not be enough to get 3rd place.

18 games and out of them I’ve suggested 10 ‘tricky’ ones. If we assume we win the other 8 that gives us 24 pts. So that would leave 7-10 points to get from those 10 tricky games. It’s do-able, but only if we win the 8 (on paper) less tricky ones.

Another way of looking at what you say Alan is by saying:

- if we need say 34 points, i.e. winning those 8 and a point a game from the 10 'tricky' ones

- then every point dropped in those 8 games needs to be made up in the 'tricky ten'


IMHO the odds are very much against us winning all the 8, but we may well do better than a point a game in the other 10. It would be very good if we could get 'ahead of schedule' in the next 2 games.

I personally look at it as '18 tricky games'   

[idler]

Every season some of the top teams drop down as some mid-table teams go on a run. We will have a better idea of how we will fare after the next six games or so. Suspensions and injuries kick in and small squads losing good players can derail teams. We surely have more strength in depth than most if not all of our rivals.
It is in our own hands, stay calm and take one game at a time.

[normal rules]

A continuation of rovers form over the whole season so far would see us on 80/81 points.
1.75 ppg currently x 46= 80.5

[danumdon]

Think you also have to remember that results in this league this season have been very unpredictable. Bar the run that Walsall had nobody has been consistent in any shape or form, including us.

In follows that some teams will go on a winning streak and we ourselves are now well into one, if we continue this form we will pull away from the chasing pack gradually, Its all in our hands, no reason why we can't go on and win this league whatsoever. The confidence should now be sky high.

[Monkcaster_Rover]

I think it was Gaz who said we’d come into our own (or words to that affect) in second half of the season due to our strength in depth.

Looks to be the case now!

[DonnyBazR0ver]

Swindon could throw a spanner in the works just as we did. Their momentum is gathering. As long as we keep our singular focus we shouldn’t have to look over our shoulders.

[ncRover]

Who are Wimbledon’s 2 games in hand over us against?

[Dutch Uncle]

Who are Wimbledon’s 2 games in hand over us against?

They have three postponed fixtures outstanding to our one (Morecambe Away)

Their three are Crewe and Cheltenham Home and Fleetwood Away, not the easiest three

[ncRover]

Who are Wimbledon’s 2 games in hand over us against?

They have three postponed fixtures outstanding to our one (Morecambe Away)

Their three are Crewe and Cheltenham Home and Fleetwood Away, not the easiest three

Thank you