BST points prediction thread…

[BillyStubbsTears]

Not taking any points from the chesterfield and Grimsby games could have really shafted us.

Bad week for us that. I think we’d need to produce something really special from here on in to make the top 3, or hope the teams around us have a massive wobble.

We have won 6 games out of the last 8, 18 points from 24.
That’s remarkable form yet you’re talking like we’ve been on some kind of terrible run

We've won 7 of the last 10.

Every one was against a bottom half side. We've played 3 games in that run against top half sides, lost all three and looked distinctly second best.

That's my point.

 

In that run of 10 games, we've played against sides that were in the following positions on the day we played them.

Fleetwood: 16th (W)
Port Vale: 6th (L)
Gillingham: 14th (W)
Harrogate: 18th (W)
Barrow: 15th (W)
MK Dons: 11th (W)
Chesterfield: 10th (L)
Grimsby: 9th (L)
Morecambe: 23rd (W)
Accrington: 21st (W)

Great that we've got 7 wins out of ten from those. Really. But that is undoubtedly one of the easiest runs of 10 games you're going to have all season. And in that run, we've only fractionally exceeded the PPG that's likely to be necessary to secure 3rd place (2.10 Vs 1.91).

I'm sure I'm wrong and you're now going to tell me why though.

[acacia94]

And your farts smell like spunk?
[/quote]
Now that is really strange…!
I’ve not noticed a spunk whiff - more fruity with a usually a hint of poultry

[BillyStubbsTears]

You wanted it. Here it is. Although you probably won't like it....

Remember, to save a lot of very tiresome arguing again, this is NOT predicting who will finish where. It's predicting how many points each final position will end up with. Nothing magic about it, but with a couple of exceptions, it's generally getting the finishing points tallies right to within a couple or 3 points for 15 years now.

So, here's this evening's prediction.

1st place: 90
2nd 89
3rd 88
4th 85
5th 85
6th 82
7th 75
8th 70
9th 69
10th 65

Bit of a bugger if that's anywhere near. It means we'd need to win 10 of our final 13 to make the top 3.

88 points feels high for 3rd place, but there are a lot of teams with already slightly better ppg than us, and similar recent form. Personally, I think we are going to struggle to make the top 3, and this confirms it. We still don't and never have consistently looked like clearly one of the top three sides this season.

But we’re currently 2nd, if we average 2 points a game then we will finish in the top 3,
Last 10 games were averaging 2.1and last 20 were averaging 1.9.
So the form we’re in and have been for 20 games now would be border line good enough, a light improvement and we’re there

I'll have a bet with you.

If we average 2 points a game from here on in, we'll not finish in the top 4.

£20 to a charity of your choice.

[dickos1]

Ok!
The average points for 3rd place over last 3 years has been 83 points, we would have 84 so not sure why you’re so confident
It’s obviously going to be very very close
Average for 4th place is 79. So we would comfortably make that

[BillyStubbsTears]

Not taking any points from the chesterfield and Grimsby games could have really shafted us.

Bad week for us that. I think we’d need to produce something really special from here on in to make the top 3, or hope the teams around us have a massive wobble.

We have won 6 games out of the last 8, 18 points from 24.
That’s remarkable form yet you’re talking like we’ve been on some kind of terrible run

We've won 7 of the last 10.

Every one was against a bottom half side. We've played 3 games in that run against top half sides, lost all three and looked distinctly second best.

That's my point.

 

We didn’t look distinctly second best at chesterfield,
Wimbledon only drew today against a midtable side, you can only beat what’s in front of you and we’re doing that most weeks currently

Were you actually at the Chesterfield match and watching it?

We were absolutely dreadful. We were cut open every time they launched anything resembling a meaningful attack. We flattered to deceive in the first half, while producing little in the way of actual threat before our goal. Then came out in the second half like our half time oranges had been laced with Mogadon.

[dickos1]

Not taking any points from the chesterfield and Grimsby games could have really shafted us.

Bad week for us that. I think we’d need to produce something really special from here on in to make the top 3, or hope the teams around us have a massive wobble.

We have won 6 games out of the last 8, 18 points from 24.
That’s remarkable form yet you’re talking like we’ve been on some kind of terrible run

We've won 7 of the last 10.

Every one was against a bottom half side. We've played 3 games in that run against top half sides, lost all three and looked distinctly second best.

That's my point.

 

We didn’t look distinctly second best at chesterfield,
Wimbledon only drew today against a midtable side, you can only beat what’s in front of you and we’re doing that most weeks currently

Were you actually at the Chesterfield match and watching it?

We were absolutely dreadful. We were cut open every time they launched anything resembling a meaningful attack. We flattered to deceive in the first half, while producing little in the way of actual threat before our goal. Then came out in the second half like our half time oranges had been laced with Mogadon.

Yes I was there and I thought we were very good in the first half, by far the better side.
And in no way were we distinctly second best,

[BillyStubbsTears]

Ok!
The average points for 3rd place over last 3 years has been 83 points, we would have 84 so not sure why you’re so confident
It’s obviously going to be very very close

Because I'm looking at how many sides are currently both above us in ppg, and a staging something above or very close to 2ppg already. Past average means nugget all.

[ncRover]

Not taking any points from the chesterfield and Grimsby games could have really shafted us.

Bad week for us that. I think we’d need to produce something really special from here on in to make the top 3, or hope the teams around us have a massive wobble.

We have won 6 games out of the last 8, 18 points from 24.
That’s remarkable form yet you’re talking like we’ve been on some kind of terrible run

We've won 7 of the last 10.

Every one was against a bottom half side. We've played 3 games in that run against top half sides, lost all three and looked distinctly second best.

That's my point.

 

We didn’t look distinctly second best at chesterfield,
Wimbledon only drew today against a midtable side, you can only beat what’s in front of you and we’re doing that most weeks currently

Colchester are decent we drew against them too. And they’re now unbeaten in 8.

[BillyStubbsTears]

Not taking any points from the chesterfield and Grimsby games could have really shafted us.

Bad week for us that. I think we’d need to produce something really special from here on in to make the top 3, or hope the teams around us have a massive wobble.

We have won 6 games out of the last 8, 18 points from 24.
That’s remarkable form yet you’re talking like we’ve been on some kind of terrible run

We've won 7 of the last 10.

Every one was against a bottom half side. We've played 3 games in that run against top half sides, lost all three and looked distinctly second best.

That's my point.

 

We didn’t look distinctly second best at chesterfield,
Wimbledon only drew today against a midtable side, you can only beat what’s in front of you and we’re doing that most weeks currently

Were you actually at the Chesterfield match and watching it?

We were absolutely dreadful. We were cut open every time they launched anything resembling a meaningful attack. We flattered to deceive in the first half, while producing little in the way of actual threat before our goal. Then came out in the second half like our half time oranges had been laced with Mogadon.

Yes I was there and I thought we were very good in the first half, by far the better side.
And in no way were we distinctly second best,

I really should know better. If you honestly think we weren't distinctly second best in that game and that controlling play in the middle of the park while creating sod all and conceding every time the opposition got the ball in our box is grand, we are watching different sports.

[BillyStubbsTears]

Not taking any points from the chesterfield and Grimsby games could have really shafted us.

Bad week for us that. I think we’d need to produce something really special from here on in to make the top 3, or hope the teams around us have a massive wobble.

We have won 6 games out of the last 8, 18 points from 24.
That’s remarkable form yet you’re talking like we’ve been on some kind of terrible run

We've won 7 of the last 10.

Every one was against a bottom half side. We've played 3 games in that run against top half sides, lost all three and looked distinctly second best.

That's my point.

 

We didn’t look distinctly second best at chesterfield,
Wimbledon only drew today against a midtable side, you can only beat what’s in front of you and we’re doing that most weeks currently

Colchester are decent we drew against them too. And they’re now unbeaten in 8.

That wasn't in the last 10 games. Which I always take as my touchstone for recent form.

[BillyStubbsTears]

Not taking any points from the chesterfield and Grimsby games could have really shafted us.

Bad week for us that. I think we’d need to produce something really special from here on in to make the top 3, or hope the teams around us have a massive wobble.

We have won 6 games out of the last 8, 18 points from 24.
That’s remarkable form yet you’re talking like we’ve been on some kind of terrible run

We've won 7 of the last 10.

Every one was against a bottom half side. We've played 3 games in that run against top half sides, lost all three and looked distinctly second best.

That's my point.

 

Kind of agree with that. We’ve played two abysmal teams this week and laboured past them.

This.

We CAN still do it, but not playing like we've played for the past 2 months. We need a distinct improvement because the next 13 games are FAR tougher than the past 10.

[BillyStubbsTears]

You wanted it. Here it is. Although you probably won't like it....

Remember, to save a lot of very tiresome arguing again, this is NOT predicting who will finish where. It's predicting how many points each final position will end up with. Nothing magic about it, but with a couple of exceptions, it's generally getting the finishing points tallies right to within a couple or 3 points for 15 years now.

So, here's this evening's prediction.

1st place: 90
2nd 89
3rd 88
4th 85
5th 85
6th 82
7th 75
8th 70
9th 69
10th 65

Bit of a bugger if that's anywhere near. It means we'd need to win 10 of our final 13 to make the top 3.

88 points feels high for 3rd place, but there are a lot of teams with already slightly better ppg than us, and similar recent form. Personally, I think we are going to struggle to make the top 3, and this confirms it. We still don't and never have consistently looked like clearly one of the top three sides this season.

But we’re currently 2nd, if we average 2 points a game then we will finish in the top 3,
Last 10 games were averaging 2.1and last 20 were averaging 1.9.
So the form we’re in and have been for 20 games now would be border line good enough, a light improvement and we’re there

Highlighted text is factually wrong.

We've averaged 1.75 ppg over the past 20 games. That isn't remotely close to the level likely to be needed to achieve a top 3 position this year.

I'll stick my neck out and say a side that averages 1.75ppg for the season this year might JUST squeak 6th place.

[DonnyBazR0ver]

We're getting to the stage where form goes out of the window. Yes, of course we'd expect to be beating Accrington and Morecombe but these are no gimme, and both of those clubs will be fighting for their lives and will probably take points off our rivals.

There's alot more than form needed to win games. Character, guile, bravery, camaraderie a bit of luck too.

Missing players through suspension is not going to help us. Someone said Kelly is a bit part player, whether that's true or not, we need everyone as subs can help win or lose games no matter how few minutes they might get. The teams that finish 90+ minutes with the freshest legs and clearest heads are mote likely. An 80 minute table will look so much different to the actual table for the last dozen games.

We've seem teams at the top end get squeaky bums and drop points while trying to get over the line. For those reasons, I don't think 88 points will be needed. Achieving two points per game is really difficult for most teams with the exception of those who are streets ahead. Maybe Walsall? but definitely not as clear cut as previous seasons. 

Woody, Tom and Billy will hopefully have a big influence as we enter the run in just by their experience.

[GazLaz]

Not taking any points from the chesterfield and Grimsby games could have really shafted us.

Bad week for us that. I think we’d need to produce something really special from here on in to make the top 3, or hope the teams around us have a massive wobble.

We have won 6 games out of the last 8, 18 points from 24.
That’s remarkable form yet you’re talking like we’ve been on some kind of terrible run

We've won 7 of the last 10.

Every one was against a bottom half side. We've played 3 games in that run against top half sides, lost all three and looked distinctly second best.

That's my point.

 

Kind of agree with that. We’ve played two abysmal teams this week and laboured past them.

This.

We CAN still do it, but not playing like we've played for the past 2 months. We need a distinct improvement because the next 13 games are FAR tougher than the past 10.

We have got worse as the season has gone on. We are lucky we have good players that can step up the pace against teams they are better than.

We start games ok because they go out there with a tempo and step onto teams but this can’t be maintained because there’s no real structure behind it so consistency can’t be maintained.

[drfchound]

Despite all the doom and gloom from some quarters, we have maintained our position in the top three and make no mistake, fans of other clubs will be saying similar things that certain members of our fan base are saying.

[dickos1]

You wanted it. Here it is. Although you probably won't like it....

Remember, to save a lot of very tiresome arguing again, this is NOT predicting who will finish where. It's predicting how many points each final position will end up with. Nothing magic about it, but with a couple of exceptions, it's generally getting the finishing points tallies right to within a couple or 3 points for 15 years now.

So, here's this evening's prediction.

1st place: 90
2nd 89
3rd 88
4th 85
5th 85
6th 82
7th 75
8th 70
9th 69
10th 65

Bit of a bugger if that's anywhere near. It means we'd need to win 10 of our final 13 to make the top 3.

88 points feels high for 3rd place, but there are a lot of teams with already slightly better ppg than us, and similar recent form. Personally, I think we are going to struggle to make the top 3, and this confirms it. We still don't and never have consistently looked like clearly one of the top three sides this season.

But we’re currently 2nd, if we average 2 points a game then we will finish in the top 3,
Last 10 games were averaging 2.1and last 20 were averaging 1.9.
So the form we’re in and have been for 20 games now would be border line good enough, a light improvement and we’re there

Highlighted text is factually wrong.

We've averaged 1.75 ppg over the past 20 games. That isn't remotely close to the level likely to be needed to achieve a top 3 position this year.

I'll stick my neck out and say a side that averages 1.75ppg for the season this year might JUST squeak 6th place.

Correct me if I’m wrong but the first of 20 games was Bradford away, we’ve gained 38 points in those 20 games which equates to 1.9 points per game

[dickos1]

Not taking any points from the chesterfield and Grimsby games could have really shafted us.

Bad week for us that. I think we’d need to produce something really special from here on in to make the top 3, or hope the teams around us have a massive wobble.

We have won 6 games out of the last 8, 18 points from 24.
That’s remarkable form yet you’re talking like we’ve been on some kind of terrible run

We've won 7 of the last 10.

Every one was against a bottom half side. We've played 3 games in that run against top half sides, lost all three and looked distinctly second best.

That's my point.

 

Kind of agree with that. We’ve played two abysmal teams this week and laboured past them.

To be fair, almost everyone labours past these two teams

[dickos1]

Not taking any points from the chesterfield and Grimsby games could have really shafted us.

Bad week for us that. I think we’d need to produce something really special from here on in to make the top 3, or hope the teams around us have a massive wobble.

We have won 6 games out of the last 8, 18 points from 24.
That’s remarkable form yet you’re talking like we’ve been on some kind of terrible run

We've won 7 of the last 10.

Every one was against a bottom half side. We've played 3 games in that run against top half sides, lost all three and looked distinctly second best.

That's my point.

 

We didn’t look distinctly second best at chesterfield,
Wimbledon only drew today against a midtable side, you can only beat what’s in front of you and we’re doing that most weeks currently

Were you actually at the Chesterfield match and watching it?

We were absolutely dreadful. We were cut open every time they launched anything resembling a meaningful attack. We flattered to deceive in the first half, while producing little in the way of actual threat before our goal. Then came out in the second half like our half time oranges had been laced with Mogadon.

Yes I was there and I thought we were very good in the first half, by far the better side.
And in no way were we distinctly second best,

I really should know better. If you honestly think we weren't distinctly second best in that game and that controlling play in the middle of the park while creating sod all and conceding every time the opposition got the ball in our box is grand, we are watching different sports.

Everyone around me at chesterfield was commenting on how we had played in that first half, comments on here by almost everyone were regards how well we played in the first half.
You might not agree with that but to suggest we were distinctly second best is nonsense

[drfchound]

Not taking any points from the chesterfield and Grimsby games could have really shafted us.

Bad week for us that. I think we’d need to produce something really special from here on in to make the top 3, or hope the teams around us have a massive wobble.

We have won 6 games out of the last 8, 18 points from 24.
That’s remarkable form yet you’re talking like we’ve been on some kind of terrible run

We've won 7 of the last 10.

Every one was against a bottom half side. We've played 3 games in that run against top half sides, lost all three and looked distinctly second best.

That's my point.

 

Kind of agree with that. We’ve played two abysmal teams this week and laboured past them.

To be fair, almost everyone labours past these two teams

Almost all of Accrington’s defeats have been by a one goal margin.

[WarwickRover]

Not taking any points from the chesterfield and Grimsby games could have really shafted us.

Bad week for us that. I think we’d need to produce something really special from here on in to make the top 3, or hope the teams around us have a massive wobble.

We have won 6 games out of the last 8, 18 points from 24.
That’s remarkable form yet you’re talking like we’ve been on some kind of terrible run

We've won 7 of the last 10.

Every one was against a bottom half side. We've played 3 games in that run against top half sides, lost all three and looked distinctly second best.

That's my point.

 

Kind of agree with that. We’ve played two abysmal teams this week and laboured past them.

This.

We CAN still do it, but not playing like we've played for the past 2 months. We need a distinct improvement because the next 13 games are FAR tougher than the past 10.

We have got worse as the season has gone on. We are lucky we have good players that can step up the pace against teams they are better than.

We start games ok because they go out there with a tempo and step onto teams but this can’t be maintained because there’s no real structure behind it so consistency can’t be maintained.

Interesting post this as you could take it from different points of view.

'We have got worse as the season has gone on ....' but we are 2nd in the league. (not sure what criteria you are using to say we are worse but thats not my point)

To be fair we could be getting worse and that by chance we are punching above our weight, i.e been lucky. Or we could be better  and that our results should be better i.e we've been unlucky.

what are we? a lucky team or unlucky team?

[BillyStubbsTears]

You wanted it. Here it is. Although you probably won't like it....

Remember, to save a lot of very tiresome arguing again, this is NOT predicting who will finish where. It's predicting how many points each final position will end up with. Nothing magic about it, but with a couple of exceptions, it's generally getting the finishing points tallies right to within a couple or 3 points for 15 years now.

So, here's this evening's prediction.

1st place: 90
2nd 89
3rd 88
4th 85
5th 85
6th 82
7th 75
8th 70
9th 69
10th 65

Bit of a bugger if that's anywhere near. It means we'd need to win 10 of our final 13 to make the top 3.

88 points feels high for 3rd place, but there are a lot of teams with already slightly better ppg than us, and similar recent form. Personally, I think we are going to struggle to make the top 3, and this confirms it. We still don't and never have consistently looked like clearly one of the top three sides this season.

But we’re currently 2nd, if we average 2 points a game then we will finish in the top 3,
Last 10 games were averaging 2.1and last 20 were averaging 1.9.
So the form we’re in and have been for 20 games now would be border line good enough, a light improvement and we’re there

Highlighted text is factually wrong.

We've averaged 1.75 ppg over the past 20 games. That isn't remotely close to the level likely to be needed to achieve a top 3 position this year.

I'll stick my neck out and say a side that averages 1.75ppg for the season this year might JUST squeak 6th place.

Correct me if I’m wrong but the first of 20 games was Bradford away, we’ve gained 38 points in those 20 games which equates to 1.9 points per game

You're wrong.

Right that the last 20 matches started at Bradford. But our run since then is:

P20 W10 D5 L5 Pts35 PPG1.75

[Nudga]

I keep saying it, but this could be the shittest promotion in our history. 

If it happens,  I'll be over the moon because I'm sick of this awful division.
I do worry that we'll come straight back down, but that's for another day.

[ncRover]

Skybet has us 4th favourites for promotion at present behind Walsall, Notts and Wimbledon.

That’s the most accurate prediction you can get.

[BillyStubbsTears]

Not taking any points from the chesterfield and Grimsby games could have really shafted us.

Bad week for us that. I think we’d need to produce something really special from here on in to make the top 3, or hope the teams around us have a massive wobble.

We have won 6 games out of the last 8, 18 points from 24.
That’s remarkable form yet you’re talking like we’ve been on some kind of terrible run

We've won 7 of the last 10.

Every one was against a bottom half side. We've played 3 games in that run against top half sides, lost all three and looked distinctly second best.

That's my point.

 

Kind of agree with that. We’ve played two abysmal teams this week and laboured past them.

This.

We CAN still do it, but not playing like we've played for the past 2 months. We need a distinct improvement because the next 13 games are FAR tougher than the past 10.

We have got worse as the season has gone on. We are lucky we have good players that can step up the pace against teams they are better than.

We start games ok because they go out there with a tempo and step onto teams but this can’t be maintained because there’s no real structure behind it so consistency can’t be maintained.

Interesting post this as you could take it from different points of view.

'We have got worse as the season has gone on ....' but we are 2nd in the league. (not sure what criteria you are using to say we are worse but thats not my point)

To be fair we could be getting worse and that by chance we are punching above our weight, i.e been lucky. Or we could be better  and that our results should be better i.e we've been unlucky.

what are we? a lucky team or unlucky team?

If I was a betting man I would say we have more chance of promotion than not achieving promotion

You can't really look at tables without taking matches played into account.

In terms of PPG, we are currently 6th. After a dozen games we were 4th.

Yes it's tight margins and yes we could still do it. But the stats and the performances both say to me that we so far this season, we've been not quite there. And I don't think the performances have significantly improved recently, barring the MK Dons game in which I thought we were superb.

EDIT. I'd add I thought we were also superb at Barrow which is the one and only time this season we've demolished a side who set up with a low block against us.

[WarwickRover]

I'm assuming your stats re ppg is based on this seasons games, 33 games ... is this a sufficient number of games to draw inference?
 

[dickos1]

Not taking any points from the chesterfield and Grimsby games could have really shafted us.

Bad week for us that. I think we’d need to produce something really special from here on in to make the top 3, or hope the teams around us have a massive wobble.

We have won 6 games out of the last 8, 18 points from 24.
That’s remarkable form yet you’re talking like we’ve been on some kind of terrible run

We've won 7 of the last 10.

Every one was against a bottom half side. We've played 3 games in that run against top half sides, lost all three and looked distinctly second best.

That's my point.

 

Kind of agree with that. We’ve played two abysmal teams this week and laboured past them.

To be fair, almost everyone labours past these two teams

Almost all of Accrington’s defeats have been by a one goal margin.

Morecambe have lost 11 games 1-0,

Just seems an extreme negative viewpoint to state we struggled to win away from home in these 2 games.

[drfchound]

Not taking any points from the chesterfield and Grimsby games could have really shafted us.

Bad week for us that. I think we’d need to produce something really special from here on in to make the top 3, or hope the teams around us have a massive wobble.

We have won 6 games out of the last 8, 18 points from 24.
That’s remarkable form yet you’re talking like we’ve been on some kind of terrible run

We've won 7 of the last 10.

Every one was against a bottom half side. We've played 3 games in that run against top half sides, lost all three and looked distinctly second best.

That's my point.

 

Kind of agree with that. We’ve played two abysmal teams this week and laboured past them.

To be fair, almost everyone labours past these two teams

Almost all of Accrington’s defeats have been by a one goal margin.

Morecambe have lost 11 games 1-0,

Just seems an extreme negative viewpoint to state we struggled to win away from home in these 2 games.

I couldn’t agree more.
We are coming into the time of year when teams fighting off relegation start to pick up unexpected points.

[drfchound]

I'm assuming your stats re ppg is based on this seasons games, 33 games ... is this a sufficient number of games to draw inference?

The most important time to see who got the best ppg is after 46 games.

[dickos1]

Not taking any points from the chesterfield and Grimsby games could have really shafted us.

Bad week for us that. I think we’d need to produce something really special from here on in to make the top 3, or hope the teams around us have a massive wobble.

We have won 6 games out of the last 8, 18 points from 24.
That’s remarkable form yet you’re talking like we’ve been on some kind of terrible run

We've won 7 of the last 10.

Every one was against a bottom half side. We've played 3 games in that run against top half sides, lost all three and looked distinctly second best.

That's my point.

 

We didn’t look distinctly second best at chesterfield,
Wimbledon only drew today against a midtable side, you can only beat what’s in front of you and we’re doing that most weeks currently

Colchester are decent we drew against them too. And they’re now unbeaten in 8.

That wasn't in the last 10 games. Which I always take as my touchstone for recent form.

So you’ll agree we’re in great form if that’s your touchstone, yet you’ve just said we need to significantly improve on the last two months, which covers those ten games.
A big contradiction in there.

And we all know at this point of the season there aren’t any easy games, whoever we face,
Almost all are going to be playing for something

[BillyStubbsTears]

I'm assuming your stats re ppg is based on this seasons games, 33 games ... is this a sufficient number of games to draw inference?
 

I'm sorry, I don't understand your point.

It's a fact that there are currently 5 sides who have earned more points per game so far this season than we have. I'm drawing no inference other than staying that as a fact.