BST points prediction thread…

[NickDRFC]

The points the third placed team have achieved over the last 10 seasons.

14/15 - 85
15/16 - 85
16/17 - 85
17/18 - 84
18/19 - 79
19/20 - curtailed
20/21 - 79
21/22 - 80
22/23 - 83
23/24 - 86

Do we think 80/81 points will be enough this season to get over the line?

81 probably, but depends where the points come from. If we got that many but lost to Notts or Wimbledon and drew with Bradford it would be less likely than if we beat all 3 and dropped points to Salford & Tranmere.

[dickos1]

79 will be enough this season

[drfchound]

Would this be enough?

Wimbledon - lose
Salford - win
Tranmere - draw
Colchester - draw
Bradford - draw
Notts - win

Would be tight. That would leave us with 79 points and a goal difference very similar to what we have now. Meaning our opponents would need:

Bradford - 6 points from their remaining 4 games (leaving them on 79 and likely a better GD). So 2 wins from Swindon & Chesterfield (A) and Notts C & Fleetwood (H). Which you’d probably say is likely.

Port Vale - 7 points from 5 games (given their goal difference is slightly worse than ours. Bromley, Grimsby & Gillingham (H) and Carlisle & Wimbledon away so again I’d fancy them to get that many.

Walsall - 7 points from 5 games (with the expectation their GD would be superior). Easiest run in on paper with Harrogate & Accrington at home and Barrow, Newport & Crewe away. The way they’ve been dropping points who knows?

Wimbledon - 8 points from 4 games (after beating us, again with the expectation of a better GD). Someone’s dropping points with the PV game, and with trips to Grimsby & Gillingham and a home game against Chesterfield this is maybe a tall order.

Notts County - would need 4 wins so pretty unlikely, plus play Bradford.

I’d probably say we’d have a 50/50 chance on 79 points.

Nick, With Bradford already on 73 points and then drawing with us, then another six points from their remaining four matches would put them on 80 points.

[NickDRFC]

Would this be enough?

Wimbledon - lose
Salford - win
Tranmere - draw
Colchester - draw
Bradford - draw
Notts - win

Would be tight. That would leave us with 79 points and a goal difference very similar to what we have now. Meaning our opponents would need:

Bradford - 6 points from their remaining 4 games (leaving them on 79 and likely a better GD). So 2 wins from Swindon & Chesterfield (A) and Notts C & Fleetwood (H). Which you’d probably say is likely.

Port Vale - 7 points from 5 games (given their goal difference is slightly worse than ours. Bromley, Grimsby & Gillingham (H) and Carlisle & Wimbledon away so again I’d fancy them to get that many.

Walsall - 7 points from 5 games (with the expectation their GD would be superior). Easiest run in on paper with Harrogate & Accrington at home and Barrow, Newport & Crewe away. The way they’ve been dropping points who knows?

Wimbledon - 8 points from 4 games (after beating us, again with the expectation of a better GD). Someone’s dropping points with the PV game, and with trips to Grimsby & Gillingham and a home game against Chesterfield this is maybe a tall order.

Notts County - would need 4 wins so pretty unlikely, plus play Bradford.

I’d probably say we’d have a 50/50 chance on 79 points.

Nick, With Bradford already on 73 points and then drawing with us, then another six points from their remaining four matches would put them on 80 points.

Yep you’re quite right, that would mean it’s an even higher chance that they’ll match 79 points as they would only need 5 from their remaining 4 games.

[IDM]

4 wins puts us on 82 points - big ifs, obviously..

I reckon that’s enough for 3rd or even second..

[Avsuptem]

Tranmere will still need to secure mathematical safety no matter what by the time we play them and they’re in a really good run of form.

We are better than Tranmere.

[DonnyBazR0ver]

Tranmere will still need to secure mathematical safety no matter what by the time we play them and they’re in a really good run of form.

We are better than Tranmere.

That's what Chesterfield thought.

[Colemans Left Hook]

Walsall, Wimbledon, Notts County and us have been the best four teams in L2 since day one. No reason to think that won’t be the top 4 come the end of the season.

i watched the first half of Morecambe v Walsall and Walsall were not the better side - I was keeping an eye on Hull at Sunderland and watched that second half as I lad backed Hull to stay up after those January "proper" signings .

It seems Morecambe had a player sent off after 52 minutes

https://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/football/live/c6262egzr4qt

"Two second-half goals gave League Two leaders Walsall victory over a struggling Morecambe side who ended the game with 10 men.

The contest was evenly poised until the 50th minute when Morecambe defender Rhys Williams was sent off for pulling back Jamie Jellis as he looked to run onto a long through ball.

To make matters worse for the home side, the Saddlers took the lead from the resulting free-kick as Taylor Allen curled the ball over the wall and into the goal off the foot of the right-hand post.

Despite being a man down, Morecambe looked to hit back with Marcus Dackers missing a golden chance to equalise when he headed a pinpoint Adam Lewis cross over from close range.

He was made to pay for the miss when Jellis scored a second three minutes from the end when he fired past goalkeeper Harry Burgoyne from the edge of the box.

Morecambe had the better chances of the first half but Lee Angol twice failed to find the target from close range."

now Notts County
-- yes they have Jones - "the old man" etc    OUT INJURED     
Amazingly Tranmere were much the better side for well over 70 minutes (they recently got a couple of Liverpool loanees) 

here i  the bbc version  which doesn't do Tranmere justice  Notts County for some reason were hopeless

https://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/football/live/cdryr7jgeg0t

"Late goals from Charlie Whittaker and Alassana Jatta fired promotion-chasing Notts County to a 2-1 win over Tranmere.

Nigel Adkins' side, who saw substitute Kristian Dennis grab a consolation effort, were the better side for long periods.

But they were made to pay for failing to exploit their superiority and remain in deep trouble at the other end of the table.

Despite entering the contest without a win in eight, Rovers carried a threat.

Omari Patrick tested Alex Bass after combining with Jake Garrett before Josh Davison fired over from the edge of the box.

Sam Finley and Chris Merrie were also presented with opportunities to hand Adkins' men the advantage.

Cameron Norman appeared to have done exactly that after meeting a cross by the influential Garrett only for Bass to again intervene.

If Norman could attribute that miss to the County goalkeeper's agility, he had only himself to blame on the stroke of half-time after heading wide from close range.

Whittaker and Jatta punished those misses with clinical 80th and 83rd-minute finishes from Mai Traore assists before Dennis' 88th-minute consolation."





as I keep saying in my world the dangers to us are behind us Bradford and PV

and don't underestimate any of these teams at the bottom Tranmere v Accrington should be "gud un" tonight bare knuckle fight ?

It's worth re-reading the above post --- I was shocked at the time how "Hopeless on paper" Tranmere  performed so well and highlighted it - I expected them to beat Accrington but they lost 1-0

and Atkins was shown the door   and here are there results  "Amazing Jeff" don't ask about Runcorn Linnets - they must be very high in any form table !!!

Sat 22 Feb   A   Notts County   League Two   (0)1 - 2(0)   9,476   Dennis
Tue 25 Feb   H   Accrington Stanley   League Two   (0)0 - 1(0)   5,757   
Wed 26 Feb   A   Runcorn Linnets   Liverpool Cup QF   (0)0 - 4(1)   382   
Sat 1 Mar   H   Port Vale   League Two   (1)1 - 1(1)   6,974   Dennis ------ port vale stupidity gave them the goal !!!
Tue 4 Mar   A   Grimsby Town   League Two   (1)1 - 1(0)   4,854   Finley
Sat 8 Mar   H   Bromley   League Two   (1)2 - 1(1)   5,615   Hawkes, Patrick
Sat 15 Mar   A   Bradford City   League Two   (0)1 - 0(0)   18,845   Hawkes (pen)
Sat 22 Mar   A   Fleetwood Town   League Two   (0)0 - 0(0)   3,421 --------- LOST-----   
Fri 28 Mar   H   Cheltenham Town   League Two   (1)2 - 0(0)   6,650   Dennis, Norman
Tue 1 Apr   A   Harrogate Town   League Two   (0)2 - 3(1)   3,325   Hendry, Patrick --------- LOST-----
Sat 5 Apr   H   Chesterfield   League Two   (0)4 - 0(0)   6,316   Norman, Hendry, Davison, Finley

[DonnyBazR0ver]

My gut feelings are telling me there's jeopardy in every game from now. Well and truly squeaky bum time. The fewer stats I read, the better I feel. 11 v 11 simples.

[ForsolongaRover]

My gut feelings are telling me there's jeopardy in every game from now. Well and truly squeaky bum time. The fewer stats I read, the better I feel. 11 v 11 simples.

The very fact that the distribution of points is more evenly spread than would normally be the case is a seemingly obvious indication of the relative strength (or lack of it) of the teams throughout League 2 this season. I’m sure this fact has not escaped most observers, but it has a continuous overbearing effect on results which those whose concentrate on the relative positions in the table ought not forget.

[Chris Black come back]

As disappointing as the performance was against AFC Wimbledon, after the round of games this weekend we have actually improved our position for automatic performance:

Vale - they have gained two points on us
Bradford - we have gained a point on them
Walsall - we have gained a point on them
AFC Wimbledon - no change
Notts County - we have gained a point on them
Grimsby Town - no change
Colchester United - they have gained two points on us

Results wise, this has been a GOOD weekend for us. As bad as we might appear at times, this is a terrible league with a group of sides who are, Vale aside, unable to string two results together.

[Colemans Left Hook]

these are not easy matches for Port Vale

Fri 18 Apr   A   Carlisle United   League Two   3pm       
Mon 21 Apr   H   Grimsby Town   League Two   3pm       
Sat 26 Apr   A   AFC Wimbledon   League Two   12.30pm       
Sat 3 May   H   Gillingham   League Two   3pm

[dickos1]

I don’t think it’s necessarily a poor league there’s just a load of teams that are of a similar level.
Crewe for example made the playoffs last year but won’t this year, mk dons made the playoffs last year but won’t this year.
Which shows the league can’t be much worse than last year if at all

[Filo]

Come on BST give us update on points required we’re getting giddy

[dickos1]

79 will be enough this season

2 weeks on and I think this was a good prediction

[normal rules]

79 will be enough this season

2 weeks on and I think this was a good prediction

Seconded. A win and a draw should be enough.
But what if NC need a draw for a PO slot last day and rovers need a point for auto ? It could happen and footy is a funny old game that throws up these scenarios.

[Filo]

79 will be enough this season

2 weeks on and I think this was a good prediction

Seconded. A win and a draw should be enough.
But what if NC need a draw for a PO slot last day and rovers need a point for auto ? It could happen and footy is a funny old game that throws up these scenarios.

Shades of West Germany v Austria

[BillyStubbsTears]

Come on BST give us update on points required we’re getting giddy

Heh!

Miles off this season mate. I'm with Dickos. 79 will do it.

[Colemans Left Hook]

these are not easy matches for Port Vale

Fri 18 Apr   A   Carlisle United   League Two   3pm       
Mon 21 Apr   H   Grimsby Town   League Two   3pm       
Sat 26 Apr   A   AFC Wimbledon   League Two   12.30pm       
Sat 3 May   H   Gillingham   League Two   3pm

I keep on mentioning the lesser teams and their "Jekyl and Hyde form"  and today the record book shows second bottom Carlisle just beat table toppers Vale - yes it could have been a last minute draw but it wasn't 

On this "Jekyl and Hyde theme "  - How do we explain how Salford win 3-1 away at Notts County ( yet again I will mention their first goal was an absolute pinball wizard double fluke own goal)   - then draw at home to us and then they get beaten at home by Relegation threatened Accrington - WHO LET A THREE GOAL LEAD AT 78 MINUTES over Tranmere slip in their last match ???

"J & H" performances even extended today to Grimsby 4-0 losers  at home to Swindon  and couldn't take advantage of a team who gifted 3 goals from throw ins to Bradford in their last match   

At the moment we must be the most consistent team in the League - who is to say we might draw our next three matches  ???

by the way we are 9/4 2nd favourites for the Title P Vale being 5/4 for what it is worth

[drfchound]

I backed us to win the title at 14/1 and my cash out has increased to marginally under four times my original stake money.

[Ryaldinhio]

After yesterday's performance and day out I've got the feeling we are guna do this now.

Rovers 3 wins - 84pts
Port Vale 2w 1d - 83pts
Bradford 1w 1d 1L - 78pts

Walsall 1w 1d 1L - 77pts
Wimbledon 1w 1d 1L - 74pts

Monday is massive now. We can do Grimsby a favour and hopefully they return that against PV! Come on you reds!!!!! Come on you Mariners!!!

[RobTheRover]

After yesterday's performance and day out I've got the feeling we are guna do this now.

Rovers 3 wins - 84pts
Port Vale 2w 1d - 83pts
Bradford 1w 1d 1L - 78pts

Walsall 1w 1d 1L - 77pts
Wimbledon 1w 1d 1L - 74pts

Monday is massive now. We can do Grimsby a favour and hopefully they return that against PV! Come on you reds!!!!! Come on you Mariners!!!

Love the positivity....

[Ryaldinhio]

After yesterday's performance and day out I've got the feeling we are guna do this now.

Rovers 3 wins - 84pts
Port Vale 2w 1d - 83pts
Bradford 1w 1d 1L - 78pts

Walsall 1w 1d 1L - 77pts
Wimbledon 1w 1d 1L - 74pts

Monday is massive now. We can do Grimsby a favour and hopefully they return that against PV! Come on you reds!!!!! Come on you Mariners!!!

Love the positivity....

 

[Ryaldinhio]

After yesterday's performance and day out I've got the feeling we are guna do this now.

Rovers 3 wins - 84pts
Port Vale 2w 1d - 83pts
Bradford 1w 1d 1L - 78pts

Walsall 1w 1d 1L - 77pts
Wimbledon 1w 1d 1L - 74pts

Monday is massive now. We can do Grimsby a favour and hopefully they return that against PV! Come on you reds!!!!! Come on you Mariners!!!

It's coming home!!!

[RobTheRover]

After yesterday's performance and day out I've got the feeling we are guna do this now.

Rovers 3 wins - 84pts
Port Vale 2w 1d - 83pts
Bradford 1w 1d 1L - 78pts

Walsall 1w 1d 1L - 77pts
Wimbledon 1w 1d 1L - 74pts

Monday is massive now. We can do Grimsby a favour and hopefully they return that against PV! Come on you reds!!!!! Come on you Mariners!!!

It's coming home!!!

Great shout. Now, about Saturday's lottery numbers......

[Colemans Left Hook]

The only time we will know for certain how many points every team will get is after the last match of the season.
The predictor thing will get more accurate as games go by, which is expected of course.

B*GGER this "pointless "but "bonding" thread .The most important match of the season is tomorrow night and you all don't know which match it is

it's Lazarus Carlisle v Riderless Walsall ( the saddle slipped many weeks ago)   

If Carlisle can win this then the 3 instant promotion places without any doubt do open up like the parting of the Red Sea as well mannered Walsall stand aside.  and be "pulled up" lame    -  the other 5 of us Bradford Rovers Notts County PV & Wimbledon are going to collect points - nearly all wins -in fact we have the hardest match on Tuesday 

Rachel might not know what 5 into 3 places is   but it is a lot better than 5 into 2 places.

AND Remember when doing your top of the tree calculations Walsall have played 18 home  (meaning they have 5 at home to play and 7 away )

and only 16 away ... whilst PV have played only 15 home and 17 away which is easily forgotten

Did a cuckoo just fly over?

With hindsight when I said that Carlisle v Walsall was the most important match of the season I believe I was right

FACT Carlisle didn't win but they stopped Walsall from winning  whilst THE POWERS ABOVE DECIDED WE SHOULD SOMEHOW LOSE TO BROMLEY

SO if Carlisle had lost that match there would have been trouble at Mill FOR US

As time has shown it was Iberian Red who was in Cuckoo

Land MiLord

We got out of Jail that night DIDN'T LOSE ANOTHER MATCH AND THE REST IS HISTORY

[IDM]

Translation please.!

[Colemans Left Hook]

Translation please.!

SEE ABOVE

[IDM]

Nope, still b*llocks.

[Colemans Left Hook]

Nope, still b*llocks.

SOME OF OUR FANS HAVE VERY LITTLE INTELLIGENCE -PLEASE STOP PRETENDING YOU ARE ONE OF THOSE

I ACTUALLY BACKED PORT VALE FOR THE TITLE AT 33/1 that day  before they drew 0-0 with Harrogate then backed them again at 50/1  - if they had a proper Manager they would have walked this League