Permutations for monday

[normal rules]

Euphoric after today’s results . So our minds look forward to a huge bank holiday Monday set of fixtures.
I’ll be accused of getting ahead of myself but it’s ok to dream . Here goes …..

NC can only max out at 78 pts. A win on Monday gives rovers 78pts, means NC would have to beat Cheltenham at home and Harrogate away AND then beat rovers last day. And get a better gd. For those reasons I’m going to rule them out( of bettering us). If rovers beat Colchester that is.

Wimbledon can max out on 79. But they have to beat gills away, port vale at home and then Grimsby away last day who are PO hopefuls. If they did the unthinkable and won all three rovers would need a win and a draw to level them . And so gd would come into play. ( gd is a worry if I’m honest) I just cAnt see them
Winning all three. Two wins and a draw at most .77pts

Lastly Walsall, who rovers only have to equal or better to stay ahead of, can max out on 82. But they have to beat Newport away on Monday ,then accy at home before facing a local ish game away at rovers nemesis from last season, Crewe. A tall order. If it comes to it, it’s hard to imagine us rooting for Crewe but I know we would be. I’m Going to generously give them based on their current form a win and two draws . 78pts

And although unlikely , it’s possible PV and Bradford could fall out of the autos yet. Which would make the season finale very interesting.

None of the top 6 play each other Monday . So they could all win. Or all lose of course . Both scenarios unlikely.

And so I’ll put my neck out and say a win and a draw will now be enough for auto. 79
Pts.

And lastly . It could be that rovers only need a draw to secure auto come the NC game. And they only need a draw for playoffs . Now there’s an interesting manager conversation .nil nil Anyone ?
 

 

[adamtherover]

Win the next 2 home and and we are up, no matter...

[normal rules]

Win the next 2 home and and we are up, no matter...

Wouldn’t that be something . Last home game party .

[les@donr]

Be good if us and the Bantams were up by the time we play them.

[NickDRFC]

Be good if us and the Bantams were up by the time we play them.

That’s not possible, unfortunately.

[colincramb]

Win on Monday and the equation for us is very simple. Would be brilliant to do it at home against Bradford in front of a full house, wouldn’t it?

[les@donr]

Be good if us and the Bantams were up by the time we play them.

That’s not possible, unfortunately.

Could a draw send both teams up, if we both win on Monday?

[IDM]

I think the teams below us would also need to drop points same day, so yes, a draw may be enough but we won’t know until the other games finish too. 

[idler]

I’m sure that Walsall, Wimbledon and Notts County will have to think about being a bit more adventurous on Monday to try and make up ground for automatic promotion. We win and two more points would do to guarantee promotion.

[IDM]

There’s a permutation where we get 2 more wins (Colchester, Notts Co), and 81 points, but finish 4th ie Bradford and Walsall winning all 3, Vale winning 2..

Best we can do is win on Monday and see what else happens..

[les@donr]

I think the teams below us would also need to drop points same day, so yes, a draw may be enough but we won’t know until the other games finish too.

How many teams could be on 79 points with one game remaining? Doubt many if any?


I predict that the current top 3 teams will be the 3 that go up automatically, in which order, no idea.

[IDM]

They don’t have to be on 79, just within 3 points of us..  it is entirely possible we win 2 games but lose to Bradford and finish 4th on 81 points.  I think that’s unlikely.  But a win on Monday and a draw on Saturday will only see us promote if the other results work in our favour..

[RobTheRover]

I've stopped even thinking about it as it just makes my brain hurt.

[Alan Southstand]

Newport v Walsall

On paper, you would think Walsall would take the 3 points. However, Walsall’s early season form has well and truly deserted them and this could be a nervous game for them. Newport’s recent form is woeful but they have to be very mindful of Carlisle’s emergence and threat. 


Accrington Stanley v Carlisle United

This game will have an edge to it, no doubt. Carlisle need the win if they’re going to survive the trapdoor. Meanwhile Accrington would probably be happy with a draw. However, this game does have hidden ramifications on Walsall. If Accrington lose this one, they’ve got Walsall to play next!


Barrow v Tranmere Rovers

Tranmere will be smarting after our 3-0 win on Friday and will want something from this as they’re well in the sights of Carlisle. Barrow away is not the game you’d want to get your next win!


Chesterfield v Bradford City

One of the games of the day. Chesterfield now just 3 points off the play-offs with 3 games left. They’ll want something from this game, however so will Bradford. A potential cracker. 

Crewe Alexandra v Milton Keynes Dons

Crewe have slipped out of the play-offs recently, now some 6 points off. But they couldn’t have wished for a better game to get back on track and edge nearer to that 7th place.


Doncaster Rovers v Colchester United


2nd v 7th says it all. Another game of the day. A Rovers win would see us teetering on the edge of automatic promotion but it really depends on results elsewhere. Colchester a tricky opponent and nothing will be taken for granted.

Gillingham v AFC Wimbledon

Tough one to call, but I would think this has ‘draw’ written all over it. Don’t envy the Gills fans having to watch Wimbledon’s version of football.


Harrogate Town v Fleetwood Town

Both teams relatively safe, but I think Harrogate may just edge this one.


Morecambe v Salford City

Simple - Morecambe need the win and a miracle.


Notts County v Cheltenham Town

Obvious implications for Notts County, but Cheltenham are a tricky opponent.


Port Vale v Grimsby Town

Another potential cracker this one. After Port Vale’s defeat at Carlisle, this could be a good time for Grimsby to play them. The nerves will be jangling at Vale and Grimsby do need something from this game to try and get back in the play-offs.


Swindon Town v Bromley

Swindon scoring for fun right now, but Bromley a side that could put the brakes on their recent good form.

[Chris Black come back]

Chesterfield have a fairy strong home record but Bradford have a really poor away record. Ranked 14th over the season but more recently it is weak - last five away games only one win (by a single goal at Salford) with one draw and three defeats. Admittedly some tough games in there and the ten men against Swindon but Bradford City are much weaker away from home than almost all the top end sides. Certainly weaker away than us.

[BillyStubbsTears]

Be good if us and the Bantams were up by the time we play them.

Far, far better if they are out of the top three and looking like needing 2 wins from last 2 games.

We want them to come at us and leave gaps. Then we will pick them off

[StocksArmy]

I’m not ruling Notts out of that 3rd spot just yet. If we are promoted before the final game they may well get 3 wins on the spin. Can’t see them dropping points today or Saturday.