10pts?

[normal rules]

I reckon 10 pts from last ten games will ensure safety.
The first of which should come at home to pv.
Anything from Barnsley and Bolton would be a bonus.

[les@donr]

I think we might get draws at Bolton and Barnsley.

[DearneValleyRover]

I think 50 will be enough this season but I don’t have BST’s legendary computer program to confirm it

[Padge_DRFC]

Mate who is a Barnsley fan says they're useless. I thought they were poor at our place. 2 chances 2 goals from memory

[Petche]

Mate who is a Barnsley fan says they're useless. I thought they were poor at our place. 2 chances 2 goals from memory

One of many games this season we should have won!

[TonySoprano]

48 will do it
 
Win at Bolton, and then party at Oakwell after we beat them to secure safety 

[normal rules]

48 will do it
 
Win at Bolton, and then party at Oakwell after we beat them to secure safety 

That’s not the rovers way is it?

[BillyStubbsTears]

I think 50 will be enough this season but I don’t have BST’s legendary computer program to confirm it

Been too busy this year I'm afraid, and in any case it was utter crack blast year. Might have a go this week if things at work slow down a bit.

[BillyStubbsTears]

My gut feeling is that 47 points will be enough. Blackpool were bleeding awful today. Worst I've seen all season. They've only got 9 points in their last 14 games. On today's showing, it'd be a brave punter who bet on them topping that in the remaining 9 games.

[normal rules]

Saw an interesting stat on Facebook . Rovers are third in the league of “big chances “ created in lge one this season . Even more than Lincoln .

[andysly]

I thought a couple of weeks ago it might take as much as 52 to be safe, but maybe 48 will do it now.

[Usher wide.]

Saw an interesting stat on Facebook . Rovers are third in the league of “big chances “ created in lge one this season . Even more than Lincoln .

And there’s me worrying!

Facebook. The place to go to when you’re at your wits end…..& receive plenty of ideas on how ‘best to end it all’!

[ForsolongaRover]

Mate who is a Barnsley fan says they're useless. I thought they were poor at our place. 2 chances 2 goals from memory

It’s all relative though isn’t it - they are having their worst season for some time, aren’t they?

[Move DRFC]

You'd think Vale, Rotherham and Northampton are very likely to have taken up three of the spots. Orient should be ok considering their squad and manager. Wigan too probably have enough quality. Keep an eye on Exeter who are in freefall.

[Sprotyrover]

Listening to Grant Mcann post match interview we currently averaging 2 points a game since Wimbledon!

[Pliskin]

Blackpool's remaining home fixtures:
 - Port Vale
 - Burton
 - Exeter
 - Peterborough
 - Leyton Orient

As poor as they looked today, I don't think we can write them off just yet.

[RoversInSpain]

Highest total points for a relegation from league 1 was Plymouth in 2018/19 season with 50 points. This was a rare event, and generally 45 or less would take you down.

[ncRover]

I think Exeter will drop in.

No win in 11 games and that was Port Vale.

[Dutch Uncle]

Highest total points for a relegation from league 1 was Plymouth in 2018/19 season with 50 points. This was a rare event, and generally 45 or less would take you down.

If we go back to when 3 points per win was introduced in 1981-82 and when tier 3 was called Division 3, the highest number of points to be relegated was 54 in 1988-89. Northamption and Southend both finished with 54 points, Northampton survived but Southend were relegated on goal difference.

In the 41 seasons since then the team in 20th place has averaged 50.1 points (highest 54, lowest 40) and the team in 21st place has averaged 48.2 (also Highest 54, lowest 40)

[GazLaz]

I think Exeter will drop in.

No win in 11 games and that was Port Vale.

Between Blackpool and Exeter for the third relegation spot for me.

[Fal]

I think Exeter will drop in.

No win in 11 games and that was Port Vale.

Between Blackpool and Exeter for the third relegation spot for me.

What about the 4th?

[BillyStubbsTears]

Highest total points for a relegation from league 1 was Plymouth in 2018/19 season with 50 points. This was a rare event, and generally 45 or less would take you down.

If we go back to when 3 points per win was introduced in 1981-82 and when tier 3 was called Division 3, the highest number of points to be relegated was 54 in 1988-89. Northamption and Southend both finished with 54 points, Northampton survived but Southend were relegated on goal difference.

In the 41 seasons since then the team in 20th place has averaged 50.1 points (highest 54, lowest 40) and the team in 21st place has averaged 48.2 (also Highest 54, lowest 40)

Grand work as ever Dutch. Is there any perceptible trend over time in these figures? My gut feeling is that the survival target has been at the lower end of these numbers in the past 10-15 years.

[Dutch Uncle]

Highest total points for a relegation from league 1 was Plymouth in 2018/19 season with 50 points. This was a rare event, and generally 45 or less would take you down.

If we go back to when 3 points per win was introduced in 1981-82 and when tier 3 was called Division 3, the highest number of points to be relegated was 54 in 1988-89. Northamption and Southend both finished with 54 points, Northampton survived but Southend were relegated on goal difference.

In the 41 seasons since then the team in 20th place has averaged 50.1 points (highest 54, lowest 40) and the team in 21st place has averaged 48.2 (also Highest 54, lowest 40)

Grand work as ever Dutch. Is there any perceptible trend over time in these figures? My gut feeling is that the survival target has been at the lower end of these numbers in the past 10-15 years.

In 10 year chunks:

1981-90: 20th 50.7, 21st 49.1
1991-00: 20th 50.8, 21st 48.7
2001-10: 20th 50.2, 21st 48.4
2011-20: 20th 49.8, 21st 47.3
2021-26: 20th 44.8, 21st 43.8

So yes it does seem to be decreasing
(Just noticed I haven't updated my figures since 2021-22, our last season in Tier 3 - will do over the coming days)

BTW for the COVID season I took the ppg and multiplied it by 46 for a comparable full season total



Edit: just updated to include the last three seasons which as can be seen above have produced very low figures
In fact the 44 year average is now down to: 20th 49.9, 21st 48.0

[RoversInSpain]

Stunning stuff DU
So 51 points does it ….

[Dutch Uncle]

In an average year .......................

The annual question - how is this year panning out compared to an average year 

[RoversInSpain]

Some fans will say it’s been very average.

[BillyStubbsTears]

Highest total points for a relegation from league 1 was Plymouth in 2018/19 season with 50 points. This was a rare event, and generally 45 or less would take you down.

If we go back to when 3 points per win was introduced in 1981-82 and when tier 3 was called Division 3, the highest number of points to be relegated was 54 in 1988-89. Northamption and Southend both finished with 54 points, Northampton survived but Southend were relegated on goal difference.

In the 41 seasons since then the team in 20th place has averaged 50.1 points (highest 54, lowest 40) and the team in 21st place has averaged 48.2 (also Highest 54, lowest 40)

Grand work as ever Dutch. Is there any perceptible trend over time in these figures? My gut feeling is that the survival target has been at the lower end of these numbers in the past 10-15 years.

In 10 year chunks:

1981-90: 20th 50.7, 21st 49.1
1991-00: 20th 50.8, 21st 48.7
2001-10: 20th 50.2, 21st 48.4
2011-20: 20th 49.8, 21st 47.3

So yes it does seem to be decreasing
(Just noticed I haven't updated my figures since 2021-22, our last season in Tier 3 - will do over the coming days)

BTW for the COVID season I took the ppg and multiplied it by 46 for a comparable full season total

Brilliant stuff Dutch!  I wonder if this is a function of more clubs hitting financial problems these days? So if you are bad, you're further away from the average these days than 40 years ago

[Dutch Uncle]

Highest total points for a relegation from league 1 was Plymouth in 2018/19 season with 50 points. This was a rare event, and generally 45 or less would take you down.

If we go back to when 3 points per win was introduced in 1981-82 and when tier 3 was called Division 3, the highest number of points to be relegated was 54 in 1988-89. Northamption and Southend both finished with 54 points, Northampton survived but Southend were relegated on goal difference.

In the 41 seasons since then the team in 20th place has averaged 50.1 points (highest 54, lowest 40) and the team in 21st place has averaged 48.2 (also Highest 54, lowest 40)

Grand work as ever Dutch. Is there any perceptible trend over time in these figures? My gut feeling is that the survival target has been at the lower end of these numbers in the past 10-15 years.

In 10 year chunks:

1981-90: 20th 50.7, 21st 49.1
1991-00: 20th 50.8, 21st 48.7
2001-10: 20th 50.2, 21st 48.4
2011-20: 20th 49.8, 21st 47.3

So yes it does seem to be decreasing
(Just noticed I haven't updated my figures since 2021-22, our last season in Tier 3 - will do over the coming days)

BTW for the COVID season I took the ppg and multiplied it by 46 for a comparable full season total

Brilliant stuff Dutch!  I wonder if this is a function of more clubs hitting financial problems these days? So if you are bad, you're further away from the average these days than 40 years ago

Or possibly more money filtering down with more 'bigger' clubs playing in Tier 3 - and the difference between top and bottom of the Divison increasing (the top teams seem to be more successful than previously - and I haven't even got Birmingham's record last season in my data)

[GazLaz]

I think Exeter will drop in.

No win in 11 games and that was Port Vale.

Between Blackpool and Exeter for the third relegation spot for me.

What about the 4th?

I meant the final spot!

[Metalmicky]

My thoughts are that 48 will be enough.  Any points from our next two games would be great, but I hope that our Port Vale game will provide 3 of the points needed... and our home games against Mansfield and Reading may see us safe