You wanted it...

[BillyStubbsTears]

...here it is.

BST's Patent Points Predictor.

Often excellent at predicting the points total of each position at the end of the season, although last year it was cack.

Anywhere, here we go.  End of season prediction of points total for bottom 10 place, based on last ten results.

24th - 39
23rd - 40
22nd - 43
21st - 46
20th - 48
19th - 52
18th - 53
17th - 55
16th - 57
15th - 57

[GazLaz]

I think 20th are likely to get more than 48. Happy to be wrong though.

[Reg of the Rovers]

The way we've got more solid we should have four more points in us. That 21st place will go right to the wire I think though.

[BillyStubbsTears]

I think 20th are likely to get more than 48. Happy to be wrong though.

Just going into the calcs, the bottom three totals are dervied from the current points and form of the current bottom 3. 46 points for 21st place comes from Exeter who are sinking like a stone. 20th from Blackpool who similarly are in poor form despite scraping a win against the worst side in the division tonight.

I'll emphasise as I always do, that's not saying Exeter will get 46 points and Blackpool 48. Chances are they won't. But, generally over the years, one side bucking their recent form in a positive direction seems to be countered by another going into unexpectedly poor form. So the effects tend to balance out.

Also of course, this method, even in the best years never gets every final place points total right. Usually, it's accurate for most places to a point or two either side.

So I'd read it as saying 20th will be SOME team who will likely get 47-49 points and very likely 46-50. Again, there's no guarantee, it just generally is a reasonable pointer. Apart from last year where it was thrown by several sides having unsustainably superb form in the 10 games before I started the calcs, so it predicted daft high totals for the top 3-4 places.

[dknward2]

Thanks for this BST think this weekend fixtures will change the points again by another 1 or 2 points. Hopefully we get our 50 points asap and we push on from there for the last remaining games

[Monkcaster_Rover]

Could we have an update after tomorrow’s fixture against Vale please, BST?

[Barmby Rover]

An interesting prediction, that gives Rovers a 1 point target to the end of the season! I am sure they will end up with more than that of course. On current form I can see Rovers being above Barnsley by the end of the season.

[DonnyBazR0ver]

The only one that bothers me is our proximity to 21st.

I would like it to be more than 6 points with 2 games left. Currently 5 pts. Avoid last day dramatics please.

[BillyStubbsTears]

Update after Satdi

24th - 39 39
23rd - 40 40
22nd - 43 41
21st - 46 45
20th - 48 49
19th - 52 56
18th - 53 57
17th - 55 59
16th - 57 60
15th - 57 61

Some churn in the higher numbers, but the bottom 4 are quite consistent. If these numbers ARE right, we are safe already (if you read the numbers as meaning you need 46-47 points to finish above 4th bottom).

[BillyStubbsTears]

Word of warning though. The predictions for 4th and 5th bottom are very unstable at the moment.

If Exeter and Blackpool beat Orient and Burton this coming Satdi, the predictions for those two places will shoot up to 49 and 52. If they both lose, they'll go down to 44 and 47

[PDX_Rover]

How many points do you reckon Rovers will end up with, BST

[BillyStubbsTears]

Update after Satdi

24th - 39 39 39
23rd - 40 40 40
22nd - 43 41 41
21st - 46 45 45
20th - 48 49 52
19th - 52 56 54
18th - 53 57 55
17th - 55 59 58
16th - 57 60 59
15th - 57 61 60

Bottom 4 predictions rock solid. Every position has been within a range of +/-2 points. Doesn't really matter to us much now but it'll be interesting to see how the method pans out this season.

[dknward2]

We have 7 games left meaning 21 points to play for if we can get to the 2 points per game mark in these last 7 and end with 64 points where it would take us

[Barmby Rover]

We have 7 games left meaning 21 points to play for if we can get to the 2 points per game mark in these last 7 and end with 64 points where it would take us

If we finished around 10th that would be a great start in Lg.1, and a good base to improve from with some better recruitment up front to score goals.

[Silkscarf]

So Billy, are we staying up with 50 points and a bottom 4 goal difference? Encouraging answers only please.

Your 20th spot varies between 48 and 52. So the answer seems to be possibly yes, but maybe no.

[RoversInSpain]

Slight problem being although we have 50 points, our goal difference really brings us to 49. Always felt we need 53. It’s going to be a scary ride.

[LincsRover]

Agreed RIS. With the run they were on and the results Exeter were getting I thought this was going to be the game that made us safe. Now though, unless we beat Northampton away, I can’t see where the next points are coming from? Exeter have a tough set of fixtures but showed they were up for the fight and the others below us are within 1 win of overtaking us. Worrying times. 

[Barmby Rover]

So the situation is that we are 13 points in front of Rotherham in 22nd place, I am far from worried that they can win every match to the end of the season. We are 4 points in front of Exeter in 21st, they have to play Plymouth, pushing for a play off place, Stockport and Bradford in play off places and Burton away who are fighting for staying up. That's a tough run in. We have Northampton away who will be relegated by the time we play them, and 3 tougher matches, even with playing with ten men each match I would fancy Rovers getting at least one point out of those 4 matches which would make us ultimately safe. Go buy a copy of Hitchhikers Guide to the Galaxy and read the cover.

[EasyforDennis]

So the situation is that we are 13 points in front of Rotherham in 22nd place, I am far from worried that they can win every match to the end of the season. We are 4 points in front of Exeter in 21st, they have to play Plymouth, pushing for a play off place, Stockport and Bradford in play off places and Burton away who are fighting for staying up. That's a tough run in. We have Northampton away who will be relegated by the time we play them, and 3 tougher matches, even with playing with ten men each match I would fancy Rovers getting at least one point out of those 4 matches which would make us ultimately safe. Go buy a copy of Hitchhikers Guide to the Galaxy and read the cover.

After watching that shambles yesterday I can't see where another point will come from. I just hope we have got enough already.