You wanted it...

[BigH]

I wouldn’t be surprised if Grant wants that too

[Janso]

I'd love for either Posh or Orient to go, but Exeter is a horrendous journey I won't be sad to see go.

[BillyStubbsTears]

Ok. So how did it pan out. These were the predictions 6-7 weeks before the end of the season, together with the outcomes.

24th - 39 39 39 - 35
23rd - 40 40 40 -  41
22nd - 43 41 41 - 42
21st - 46 45 45 - 49
20th - 48 49 52 - 52
19th - 52 56 54 - 53
18th - 53 57 55 - 53
17th - 55 59 58 - 54
16th - 57 60 59 - 56
15th - 57 61 60 - 59

Not bad for the most part. Although as it happens, the worst prediction was for the most important position.

Eh well
 Like they say. Making predictions is hard. Especially about the future.

[Bentley Bullet]

Predictions are down to perception.

Only a few of us have it.

[BobG]

Not badt all Billy. There's brains behind that.

BobG

[BillyStubbsTears]

Not badt all Billy. There's brains behind that.

BobG

There's really not Bob. It's entirely driven by the numbers.

[BobG]

But to set up the spreadsheet, or whatever, needs careful thought, as do the formulae

Bob

[idler]

I always enjoy the predictions and I’m sure that most supporters start doing their own totals over the last 8 to 10 games.
Long may it continue.

[BillyStubbsTears]

I might have a go at giving it a little tweak next year. Last two seasons it's been a way off on some positions because, when I've made the first calcs, several teams have been on unsustainably good runs (last year, with PV, us and Bradford all having something like 23+ points from the previous 10 games if I recall correctly) or unsustainably bad ones (this year, Rotherham, Northampton, Blackpool and Exeter were all in awful form and PV were in pretty ropey form.and cut adrift).

It's rare that 3-4 sides will have another amazing/awful run simultaneously, and that's what's gone wrong with both the bottom place and 4th place predictions this year. Northampton and Rotherham carried on being awful and we're joined by Wimbledon , but Exter found moderate form (7 points from last 8), Blackpool found superb form (19 from last 8 after looking like a pub team against us) and PV picked up.

I think it needs a bit of "damping" in the model if there's a lot of sides with similarly excellent or awful form, and bring their projected ppg to the end of the season back a bit closer to the average. If I can be arsed, I'll have a go next year.