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[Alan Southstand]

Wins needed for Exeter to catch us:

They’ve got at home - Stockport & Bradford
                      Away - Burton

And we have got to lose all our remaining games!

I can’t see it, myself, but mathematically, it’s still possible.

[Colemans Left Hook]

they need 2 wins (6 points) and us to lose all 4 matches. - that must be about 50/1

[roversdude]

Wimbledon and Orient are the teams in danger I’d say

[IDM]

Exeter could win all 3 and end up with 56 points.

Port Vale could get 55.

Both seem unlikely to me but look what we did a couple of seasons ago..

[steve@dcfd]

It might be ludicrous but we could need another
 4 pts to be safe. I don't believe Exeter will win all three games but it's not impossible.
Stockport play in the Vertu today then away at Wimbledon Wednesday and the away at Exeter Saturday the latter two games are important for their playoff ambitions and assist in our safety

[Alan Southstand]

Not one of their 3 games are easy, though! Our next game is at Northampton, by comparison!

[IDM]

Who could be relegated by the time we play them..

[steve@dcfd]

Both us and Exeter next game is Saturday at 3pm
Stockport for Exeter at home we are away to Northampton. Stockport will play a game today and then on Wednesday. Northampton play away on Wednesday. So it's important that we get a result next Saturday just to be sure.

[steve@dcfd]

Who could be relegated by the time we play them..

???

[Dutch Uncle]

Who could be relegated by the time we play them..

???

Northampton play at Luton on Wednesday. If they fail to win they will be mathematically relegated

[Thorney]

Whilst we are not mathmatically safe.

Im pretty confident we will be fine.

There are 7 teams below us that have to better our results in this run in. Which i cannot see happening and some of those teams are on a worse run of form than us.

[steve@dcfd]

I understand that but doesn't change the nature of the game they could be playing pressure free. This game on paper is or best chance of getting 3 points.

[BillyStubbsTears]

It might be ludicrous but we could need another
 4 pts to be safe. I don't believe Exeter will win all three games but it's not impossible.
Stockport play in the Vertu today then away at Wimbledon Wednesday and the away at Exeter Saturday the latter two games are important for their playoff ambitions and assist in our safety

It's not just about Exeter though.

For us to need 57 points to stay up, ALL the following have to happen

Exeter win their last 3 games
Wimbledon win 2 of their last 4.
Blackpool get 5 points from their last 3*
Burton lose to Exeter and win their other 2 games
Orient lose to Burton and win 2 of their other 3 games.*
Peterborough lose to Burton and get 5 points from their final 4 games
Wigan get 4 from 4


*Since Orient still have Blackpool to play, one of the following has to happen.

If Blackpool win that one, Orient have to win both their remain games and Blackpool have to get at least 2 draws from their other 2 games.

If Orient win, Blackpool have to win both their other two games left and Orient still have to win one of their other 2 games.

If it's a draw, Blackpool have to get at least 4 points from their other two games and Orient have to win both.

It's not going to happen.

[ForsolongaRover]

It might be ludicrous but we could need another
 4 pts to be safe. I don't believe Exeter will win all three games but it's not impossible.
Stockport play in the Vertu today then away at Wimbledon Wednesday and the away at Exeter Saturday the latter two games are important for their playoff ambitions and assist in our safety

It's not just about Exeter though.

For us to need 57 points to stay up, ALL the following have to happen

Exeter win their last 3 games
Wimbledon win 2 of their last 4.
Blackpool get 5 points from their last 3*
Burton lose to Exeter and win their other 2 games
Orient lose to Burton and win 2 of their other 3 games.*
Peterborough lose to Burton and get 5 points from their final 4 games
Wigan get 4 from 4


*Since Orient still have Blackpool to play, one of the following has to happen.

If Blackpool win that one, Orient have to win both their remain games and Blackpool have to get at least 2 draws from their other 2 games.

If Orient win, Blackpool have to win both their other two games left and Orient still have to win one of their other 2 games.

If it's a draw, Blackpool have to get at least 4 points from their other two games and Orient have to win both.

It's not going to happen.

Good work BST. If we, on 53 points were in 21st place after 46 games, it would be a new record would it not? And importantly, as has been observed, it isn’t as though we are currently just one place above the bottom 4. 53 points and all the other teams between us and basement are unlikely to perform as required, especially, as has been repeated from my original observation, even  those an equal points as us pre yesterday are in very poor form.

[Chris Black come back]

Let's bookmark this and look back but I suspect getting to 53 points yesterday will be enough to stay up, however many extra points we get this season. Only margin of error would be the GD aspect but I think 53 will be enough.

[Ye-Aul-Tavern]

It might be ludicrous but we could need another
 4 pts to be safe. I don't believe Exeter will win all three games but it's not impossible.
Stockport play in the Vertu today then away at Wimbledon Wednesday and the away at Exeter Saturday the latter two games are important for their playoff ambitions and assist in our safety

It's not just about Exeter though.

For us to need 57 points to stay up, ALL the following have to happen

Exeter win their last 3 games
Wimbledon win 2 of their last 4.
Blackpool get 5 points from their last 3*
Burton lose to Exeter and win their other 2 games
Orient lose to Burton and win 2 of their other 3 games.*
Peterborough lose to Burton and get 5 points from their final 4 games
Wigan get 4 from 4


*Since Orient still have Blackpool to play, one of the following has to happen.

If Blackpool win that one, Orient have to win both their remain games and Blackpool have to get at least 2 draws from their other 2 games.

If Orient win, Blackpool have to win both their other two games left and Orient still have to win one of their other 2 games.

If it's a draw, Blackpool have to get at least 4 points from their other two games and Orient have to win both.

It's not going to happen.

Fair play Billy. I got tired reading that!

[Dutch Uncle]

It might be ludicrous but we could need another
 4 pts to be safe. I don't believe Exeter will win all three games but it's not impossible.
Stockport play in the Vertu today then away at Wimbledon Wednesday and the away at Exeter Saturday the latter two games are important for their playoff ambitions and assist in our safety

It's not just about Exeter though.

For us to need 57 points to stay up, ALL the following have to happen

Exeter win their last 3 games
Wimbledon win 2 of their last 4.
Blackpool get 5 points from their last 3*
Burton lose to Exeter and win their other 2 games
Orient lose to Burton and win 2 of their other 3 games.*
Peterborough lose to Burton and get 5 points from their final 4 games
Wigan get 4 from 4


*Since Orient still have Blackpool to play, one of the following has to happen.

If Blackpool win that one, Orient have to win both their remain games and Blackpool have to get at least 2 draws from their other 2 games.

If Orient win, Blackpool have to win both their other two games left and Orient still have to win one of their other 2 games.

If it's a draw, Blackpool have to get at least 4 points from their other two games and Orient have to win both.

It's not going to happen.

Good work BST. If we, on 53 points were in 21st place after 46 games, it would be a new record would it not? And importantly, as has been observed, it isn’t as though we are currently just one place above the bottom 4. 53 points and all the other teams between us and basement are unlikely to perform as required, especially, as has been repeated from my original observation, even  those an equal points as us pre yesterday are in very poor form.

Not quite a record

If we go back to when 3 points per win was started (1981-82) the highest number of points to be relegated in a 46 games season in tier 3 is 54. In 1988-89, Southend went down in 21st place with 54 points and an inferior goal difference to Northampton who also had 54 points 

[Petche]

Lets not over think this, we're safe now...


Surely...

[LincsRover]

Let’s not overthink this, just keep playing how we did in Saturday and we’ll get more points and be fine.

[Pintolager]

I personally think we are safe now, but to go off piste, the top 11 in national League south will have over 70 points by the end of the season, so it shows how seasons can pan out at either the top or bottom

[les@donr]

Win on Saturday and will be mathematically safe, and might send Northampton in the process (if not already down).

[IDM]

Win on Saturday and will be mathematically safe, and might send Northampton in the process (if not already down).

Not if Exeter win we won’t be.  We would have 56 points and they would have 50.  They then have 2 more games which could take them to 56, with a far better goal difference.

[Chris Black come back]

Look at the games Exeter have left. They could get 9 points but equally end up with 0. It’s not the easiest set and if they beat Burton, that’s clearly also good for us.

[IDM]

Just to add, I don’t think for one second that we would go down should we get to 56 points - we are probably ok now - but just pedantically pointing out that a win next Saturday does not mean we are mathematically safe assuming Exeter win as well.

[Barmby Rover]

There is a reason why teams at the bottom are at the bottom...... they don't win enough games. We are more than safe.

[arkseyrover]

the hard work was done yesterday in beating a promotion seeking team when we were vulnerable because of our poor form, injuries to key players and a difficult run in. It was a game we could very easily have lost and was a game that I had convinced myself we would not win. Thats why I invested my £5 on Reading at 14/5 which I thought were unbelievably generous odds. But I was happy to lose! Well done lads. Nearly there.

[rich1471]

Look we are save stop worrying about things that are not in your control,life becomes easier and better ,we are staying up

[les@donr]

Exeter’s last three games are all difficult, all three of their opponents have something to play for, starting with Stockport at home this Saturday, followed by an away game at Burton, finishing with a home game against Bradford. I would be surprised if they got anything more than 3 points from those 3 fixtures.

[Janso]

I want Orient to go down, I'd love to see Wellens whining like f**k about how none of it is his fault and throwing his team under a bus.