This play-off jive

[BillyStubbsTears]

Still reckon it's wide open. Cardiff, Leicester and Swansea all playveach other overvthe next week. None of them are in scintillating form and I can see one or even two of them stumbling in the run-in.

I reckon 70 points will grab a play off spot. We'd need to win 5 of the last 6 which is a huge task, but not impossible. More likely, we'll miss out by a couple of points and wistfully rue Sullivan's late fumble at Cardiff and that late equaliser last week. Without those, we'd currently be 2 points off a play off place.

[ScillyRover]

Significant is the fact that we have both Blackpool and Swansea to play. It's a massive task, but possible. I don't think we'll quite make it but it makes for a fantastically exciting and interesting end to a great season.
I'm on the mainland early May - I've already prebooked a car to get to the Swansea game just in case we happen to make it.

[Lesonthewest]

BillyStubbsTears wrote:

Still reckon it's wide open. Cardiff, Leicester and Swansea all playveach other overvthe next week. None of them are in scintillating form and I can see one or even two of them stumbling in the run-in.

I reckon 70 points will grab a play off spot. We'd need to win 5 of the last 6 which is a huge task, but not impossible. More likely, we'll miss out by a couple of points and wistfully rue Sullivan's late fumble at Cardiff and that late equaliser last week. Without those, we'd currently be 2 points off a play off place.

I also reflect on the Scunny game BST, that game was in the bag after going 2 up. Ah well it's going to be very interesting over the next couple of weeks.

[BillyStubbsTears]

True Lads.

Interesting that Swansea's last three away matches are Bristol C, Cardiff and Blades. Not out if the question that they might only pick up 5 or 6 points before we play them. So IF we could win 4 of our next 5, we might go into that final game needing to beat Swansea to clinch 6th place.

Long shot but it's fun int it?

Also, Cardiff have 4 games in 11 days from Tuesday. Swansea, Leicester, Forest and Reading. Interesting week or two coming up.

[Superspy]

the potential situation that is a battle for 6th place on the last day is scintillating...not convinced my heart could take it, and im only 23.

[ScillyRover]

Superspy wrote:

the potential situation that is a battle for 6th place on the last day is scintillating...not convinced my heart could take it, and im only 23.

At my age , I'll have a defibrillator standing by at the Swansea game. You can borrow that if you need it.  

[Thinwhiteduke]

Personally I'll always rue those 2 dropped points v Palace at Home - how we didnt come away with a win from that game Ill never know, and Im sure it'l lcome back to haunt us.

[dumbroofer]

ok but tbh isn't it great to be looking up and not worried about how other teams have done,and with a little good fortune from now on who really knows what the last few games have instore .rtid

[besty]

I think its fantastic with 6 games to go our season isnt finished yet.
I personally think we will fall short.
I do believe one of the current  top six will fall away though and if I was a betting man Id have a tenner on Reading to sneek in there and eventually get promoted!

[RobTheRover]

And there is usually one team in the playoff shakedown who either bottles it or thinks its already in the bag and takes their foot off the gas.  Witness Cardiff's demise last season for proof.

This chase for the playoffs is far from dead yet.

[RobTheRover]

Our friends from up the M1 are certainly in freefall.  Mind, they'll still get every back page between now and May in the Yorkshire Post.  If Rovers won the Champions League the Yorkshire Post would still have a headline about how Leeds were unlucky to lose at Norwich. ;-)

[Bikka]

Rigoglioso wrote:

All we can do at the minute is just make sure we win both of our games over the Easter period if we realistically want to end up in the play-offs. Any games we don't win from now until the end of the season would definitely be classed as points lost, irrespective of how the game pans out and where we ultimately end up in the table.

I agree that 70 points should be enough to secure a play-off place. Infact, I'd go further and say that maybe one of those coveted positions could be secured with 69/68 points.

Overall, despite the talk of the play-offs and some people getting overly excited about the prospect of finishing in them, I don't think we will and I think our season is a bit dead in the water now. We've achieved our main target (survival) and anything we gain from now until May is just an added bonus.

both of these are realistic goals anything more would be the icing on the cake.

P.S - I know football doesn't work this way, but a reason as to why we won't get in the play-offs is that during the second half of the season we've constantly been a \"Few points off the play-offs\" kind of side. The performances has still been good, but far too often we've followed up a win by dropping points in our next outing, which is ultimately why we haven't managed to break into the top six and is still why we are, erm, a few points off the play-offs!

Disagree with that Rigo we need 4 more points to beat last season's tally and to finish above 14th which would mean we have yet again improved our status in the footballing world.

[BillyStubbsTears]

Whichever way you look at it, and however the season ends up, it'll have been the season of John Oster.

He's done the nigh on impossible of both replacing  Wellens, and being our main creator in Stock's absence. If we have any chance whatsoever of making the play-offs, it'll require him to be on top of his game for the last 5 weeks of the season.

On the other hand, his stupidity cost us a nailed on 2 points at Scunny, and his pissed-up actions back in January threw the season off kilter just when we were hitting form. Before the Middlesboro match, we had won 6 out of 8 and were on fire. After Oster's little escapade, we had our worst run of the season, with just 8 points from the next 9 matches. And we only rarely showed glimpses of the form that we are capable of in that run - the Wensdeh match, second half at Cardiff.

It's only in the last month or so that we've really got back on the rails. If we miss out by 3 or 4 points, it will be that run from the Middlesborough match that will have cost us.

John Oster. Flawed genius. There's a Morality Play in there somewhere.

[RobTheRover]

Agreed.  He needs putting on a new 2 year contract right now!

[Superspy]

Lesonthewest wrote:

I also reflect on the Scunny game BST, that game was in the bag after going 2 up. Ah well it's going to be very interesting over the next couple of weeks.

lets be honest, theres plenty to choose from.

the scunny one that you pointed out.

scoring 3 at home against ipswitch and blackpool and only picking up a point each.

missing the penalties against newcastle and preston(?)

the list goes on.

either way, what we've acheived up to this point is remarkable. i dont honestly think we will make the playoffs, but while ever there is a mathematical chance, we might as well go for it.

[SkellowRover]

I don't know why but i just have a gut feeling that our final game at Swansea is going to decide a play off spot.

[Lesonthewest]

RobTheRover wrote:

Agreed.  He needs putting on a new 2 year contract right now!

Agreed, for his faults the plusses far outweigh them. Super player that suits Seans ways down to the ground. SIGN HIM UP!

[northern soul]

And Cardiff may yet fall into administration.

[RobTheRover]

But I think the deadline for their penalty being applied this season has now passed.  If they went into admin the 10 points deduction would apply next season.  This rule was brought in after Leeds tried to fiddle it.

[Filo]

RobTheRover wrote:

But I think the deadline for their penalty being applied this season has now passed.  If they went into admin the 10 points deduction would apply next season.  This rule was brought in after Leeds tried to fiddle it.

nearly true Rob, unless the 10 point penalty affects another team to their detriment, then that penalty can be applied this season still

[Superspy]

yeah, it was the same last year with southampton, they were basically told if they got relegated out-right, they would start this season on -10, but if they managed to survive, they would lose the 10 and be relegated.

i dont know what happens regarding playoff places though.

[DonnyBazR0ver]

We so easily could have been closer to the play-off spots with a relatively good run in compared to some however, someone has not been reading the script.

Sounds like the ref assisted Cardiff to get a win at Palace when it should have been a draw.

Now we raelly do have to achieve perfect timing to get there. The good news is we have a full weeks rest before a crucial Easter. 6 points will put massive pressure on those just above.

If anyone is to break in to the top 6 it's us or Blackpool so what a game in store we have coming up.

Hold tight !

[roversdude]

still think Reading are the team to watch on the rails

[Wellington Vaults]

How touched I am that, just as our season hurtles into calamity, you still manage to preserve the dignity and balance to maintain that chip on your shoulder.

Bless You Mr TheRover, Bless You!

[BobG]

Brilliant Welligogs.

I've got a pasionate Leeds supporting mate at work. Travels a damn long way each season - especially as he lives in Swindon but gets to most home matches never mind the away ones. He can't work it out at the moment. Reckons Beckford is hugely talented but a right mardy git. Says you're still playing quite well. But somehow it's just not wlrking. Have you any theories I can share with him?

Cheers

BobG

[Mike_F]

It's interesting to see the theme running through this thread regarding which dropped points we'd be rueing if we just miss out on the playoffs. Nobody so far has mentioned any of the games that we've closed out when we could've conceded late on and hung in for three points to even that scale up. Saturday was a prime example. I think we did enough on the balance of play to merit a win but Sully and the back four had to be on their toes to clear a few of those late scrambles and e could have easily been coming home with two points less. At the end of a forty-six game season we will be wehre we deserve to be regardless of ifs, buts and maybes. I'm still living the dream and hoping that we will sneak into the playoffs with a win at the Liberty Stadium but anything above 14th is another season's improvement.

I also agree that Oster MUST be signed up on a two-year deal. He has his flaws but he's an incredibly gifted footballer and that's the number one priority for me.

It'sgoing to be vey interesting over the next few weeks and as others have said, if anyone other than us comes from the chasing pack to sneak into the top six, I can see Reading doingit. Here's hoping they lose a game in hand or two!

[BillyStubbsTears]

Mike_F wrote:

It's interesting to see the theme running through this thread regarding which dropped points we'd be rueing if we just miss out on the playoffs.

I think the reason for this is that in a generally excellent season, our Achilles Heel has been our weakness towards the end of games.

We've only conceded 47 league goals all season, but 27 of these have come in the last 30 minutes of games.

Only two clubs in this division (Newcastle and Cardiff) have a better record than us for scoring the first goal in matches. But then we have one of the worst records in the division in matches where we have scored first - we've won only 59% of those games, whereas on average the side that scores first wins about 68% of games.

On average, when a side scores first in this division, they win 2.27 points per game. Our average is 2.09. If we'd managed the divisional average resillience, , we'd have an additonal 4 points now. I suspect those 4 points will be the difference between us making the play-offs and not.
 
I'm not complaining - we have had a season that has vastly exceeded expectations. But the secret of success is to identify your weaknesses and work on them. Certainly these figures are food for thought for the future. They point to a lack of mental and/or physical steel in being able to close out matches in which we've generally been the better side. How many times has O'Driscoll tried to tighten things up in the last 15 minutes, only for us to cave in and give us a lead?

You can reel off the games in which we've conceded a goal that has cost us points in the last 30 minutes.

Blades home
Blades away.
Scunthorpe away (special case, I grant you).
Barnsley home.
Cardiff away.
Coventry away.
Plymouth away.
Newcastle away.
Palace home.
Reading home (although of course, this wasn't a failure to hold on, but in the final analysis, a late goal did cost us a point).
Ipswich home.
Blackpool home.
QPR away.

On the other hand, there have been far fewer cases of us winning points with late goals, especially away from home.

Ipswich home
Blackpool home
Preston home
Wednesday home
Watford home
Derby home
Peterborough away


We have precious few options from the bench that can give us the resillience to hold out under pressure. Hird is the one we usually turn to, but we rarely look more secure when he comes on. IF we could add that aspect to our squad, the sky really could be the limit.

[MrFrost]

I agree about the bench BST. I also think that if we don't manage the play offs this year, then next season could be very very exciting, providing we can add to our squad in the right areas.

[RobTheRover]

Wellington Vaults wrote:

How touched I am that, just as our season hurtles into calamity, you still manage to preserve the dignity and balance to maintain that chip on your shoulder.

Bless You Mr TheRover, Bless You!

Hey, I've been taking deportment lessons for the past 4 months just waiting for this outcome!

Shoulders back, eyes forward and get that book on you head!