Viking Supporters Co-operative
Viking Chat => Viking Chat => Topic started by: BillyStubbsTears on March 13, 2014, 09:45:34 am
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Update after last night's games
Final table based on last 8 match form
Donny 51 points
Birmingham 48
Blackpool 45
Yeovil 43
Barnsley 41
Millwall 38
Charlton 37
Based on last 5 match form
Donny 51
Yeovil 48
Blackpool 47
Birmingham 46
Barnsley 43
Millwall 40
Charlton 39
Still sticking with my prediction of the past month that 44-45 points is the safety target. 10% chance that it could be as high as 48. 10% chance that it could be as low as 41.
My take is that 2 wins, 3 draws and 6 defeats will probably see us safe. Owt much more than that and we're well over the line.
Our worst runs of 11 games this season have been two overlapping runs from Oct-Jan. The series of matches from Reading-Derby and from Bolton-Middlesboro both saw us pick up 8 points from 11 games. In both of those runs, our defence was decimated by injuries.
As it is now of course.
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Kiss of death :suicide:
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Birmingham, DeeDahs, Leeds, Bolton and Millwall matches could make it for us.
We could lose the other 6 if we pick up 9-10 points from those 5.
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I've just done my own predictor using the current button 5 and it will be the same as current positions allowing for the fact that Birmingham, Blackpool etc are not accounted for. So:
Doncaster 44
Millwall. 38
Yeovil. 37
Barnsley. 35
Charlton. 33
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As long as that is the situation going into the last game I would be quite happy
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Nothing goes to plan in football
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Fascinating reading the stats & current form, but going against them a little & looking at everyones fixtures I have done my personal bottom 4, disregarding Blackpool & Birmingham who I think will get enough, in Blackpools case by the skin of their teeth though. Not including Rovers either for the fear of jinxing us.
Millwall 45
Charlton 44
Barnsley 43
Yeovil 43
So I reckon given the odd result here or there another 10 points should see us home.
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Fascinating reading the stats & current form, but going against them a little & looking at everyones fixtures I have done my personal bottom 4, disregarding Blackpool & Birmingham who I think will get enough, in Blackpools case by the skin of their teeth though. Not including Rovers either for the fear of jinxing us.
Millwall 45
Charlton 44
Barnsley 43
Yeovil 43
So I reckon given the odd result here or there another 10 points should see us home.
Yep, I'd go along with that.
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Final table based on form from last 10 games, for those of you interested.
Only noticeable team at the minute is Wigan...
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Update after today's games.
Final table based on last 8 form
Donny 48 points
Birmingham 46
Blackpool 44
Yeovil 41
Barnsley 40
Millwall 40
Charlton 38
Based on last 5 match form
Donny 51
Birmingham 45
Yeovil 44
Blackpool 44
Charlton 43
Barnsley 42
Millwall 40
Lowering my prediction for the safety target. I reckon 43-44 points will see a team stay up this year.
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Surprised to see people predicting yeovil to stay up.
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I'm not committing on this yet, just don't know with this league! Great result today, just need to do the business next week against the fowls then I will be relaxed!
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Copps
I'm not predicting Yeovil will stay up. That is simply what an extrapolation of current form suggests.
For what it's worth, I'd be very surprised if Yeovil's good recent form carried on to the end of the season.
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Yeovil have some decent results recently, beating us and Wednesday, drawing with Watford and Reading. Of the bottom 7 teams I reckon they have the easiest run-in. They still have Barnsley, Blackpool and Charlton to play, plus home games with Bolton, Bournmouth and Hudders. Millwall, Barnsley, Brum and Blackpool have terrible run-ins. I would say that Yeovil staying up is certainly within the bounds of possibility.
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Yeovil have some decent results recently, beating us and Wednesday, drawing with Watford and Reading. Of the bottom 7 teams I reckon they have the easiest run-in. They still have Barnsley, Blackpool and Charlton to play, plus home games with Bolton, Bournmouth and Hudders. Millwall, Barnsley, Brum and Blackpool have terrible run-ins. I would say that Yeovil staying up is certainly within the bounds of possibility.
Copps
I'm not predicting Yeovil will stay up. That is simply what an extrapolation of current form suggests.
For what it's worth, I'd be very surprised if Yeovil's good recent form carried on to the end of the season.
Come on BST, surely a man of your calibre has figured out the best return on betting which of the bottom 7 will stay up/go down.
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Tough one H
I'm guessing 3 from the current bottom 4. I think the rest of us are just about far enough away. Blackpool might drop into it perhaps.
Did you ever have a threesome with Lisa Scott Lee and Claire Richards by the way?
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Did you ever have a threesome with Lisa Scott Lee and Claire Richards by the way?
Jammy bas**rd!
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Tough one H
I'm guessing 3 from the current bottom 4. I think the rest of us are just about far enough away. Blackpool might drop into it perhaps.
Did you ever have a threesome with Lisa Scott Lee and Claire Richards by the way?
Did you ever have a threesome with Lisa Scott Lee and Claire Richards by the way?
Jammy b*****d!
If only
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Lets hope we get a minimum of 48 otherwise it's going to the last game.
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Baz
I'll bet you a pound to a pinch of dogshite that, if we have 47 points after 45 games, we'll be mathematically safe.
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I'm beginning to think 45 might be enough, though it would be "squeaky bum time." I prefer to look at it in terms of games. We have 10 left and if we win three and draw a couple we'll probably be OK.
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TRB
I've been going on balance of probability rather than nigh-on certainty of what would be needed to stay up. That's why I have been saying for a couple of months that 45 points was the most likely outcome (although I'm now thinking that was unduly pessimistic - I now reckon it's more likely to be 43 points than 45). 48 points (3 wins and a couple of draws for us) is now at the outer limits of probability. For 48 points to be the target, you'd need 2 of the bottom 4 to suddenly hit promotion form for the final quarter of the season AND for Blackpool and Birmingham's form to significantly improve.
So, as things currently stand, I'd say that getting 48 points would give you a 95%+ chance of staying up. But 41-45 points is much more likely to be the actual number of points that you'll need to finish 4th bottom.
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Previous experience suggests that at least one side currently in the bottom six WILL hit promotion form between now and the end of the season. Though I agree it is unlikely to be more than one or two.
Wouldn't it be nice if we were to be that side? ;)
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I'd like Yeovil to stay up, gives me a game to go to even though we always lose.
Icing on the cake for us staying up would be to finish above Leeds, maybe with a last minute points docking taking them into the bottom three?
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Previous experience suggests that at least one side currently in the bottom six WILL hit promotion form between now and the end of the season. Though I agree it is unlikely to be more than one or two.
Wouldn't it be nice if we were to be that side? ;)
I'd say Yeovil will be the ones if any who hit top form. Yeovil remind me of when we hit that unbelievable form we had no pressure on us, no one expected us to stay up. Team's will continue to underestimate them also.
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I'd like Yeovil to stay up, gives me a game to go to even though we always lose.
Icing on the cake for us staying up would be to finish above Leeds, maybe with a last minute points docking taking them into the bottom three?
Obviously I can empathise but I would personally like (without any fancy predictions of every game left) to see Yeovil Millwall and Charlton go down
Unsure who I want to come up .... ok Wolves would be good and Rotherham and Brentford so I can sing Marcello Trotta - he's hit the Crossbar
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I want Brentford to cock it up again. Wolves, Preston and then don't care who as long as not Brentford via the playoffs.
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I want Brentford to cock it up again. Wolves, Preston and then don't care who as long as not Brentford via the playoffs.
I'd be quite happy to see Brentford come up. We have a great record against them in recent years.
Re Rotherham- I wouldn't want to wish success on any team managed by Fatty Evans.
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just for our fixtures i predict...
Sheff wed (H) Draw
Burnley (A) Lose
Leeds (A) Draw
Birmingham (H) Win
Bolton (H) Draw
Ipswich (A) Lose
Derby (H) Lose
Millwall (A) Win
Reading (H) Lose
Leicester (A) Lose
Giving us a grand total of 46 pts which i feel will be more than enough to survive. Some may turn out different as i feel we could sneak a win at Leeds on current form, but could see others changing depending on how well we stick together after a defeat.
current bottom 3 have each other to play, charlton having home advantage in both games but with a back log of fixtures can see them struggling with fitness/ injuries.
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Re Rotherham- I wouldn't want to wish success on any team managed by Fatty Evans.
[/quote]
I thought they had killed ''Fat Pat'' off in Eastenders? :unsure:
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Update after tonight's games.
Final table based on last 8 form
Donny 48 points
Birmingham 46
Charlton 45
Blackpool 44
Yeovil 43
Barnsley 40
Millwall 40
Based on last 5 match form
Charlton 53
Donny 51
Birmingham 45
Blackpool 44
Barnsley 42
Millwall 40
Yeovil 40
Still looking like 43-44 points will be the safety target.
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I think we should be capable of 4 wins and 2 draws so 51 points it is.
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Bottom three starting to look a little nailed on now, to me anyway.
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RedJ
Not entirely sure I agree. Charlton have had a good 4-5 games and that skews their predicted position. Whether they can keep that up over 13 games in the next 6.5 weeks is another matter.
Also, Blackpool are teetering and have been doing for months. It's perfectly possible to imagine them dropping into the bottom 3. And Yeovil continue to keep up form that is way better than their season average. I keep expecting them to slip up and drop off again, but they are looking capable of hitting 42-43-ish points based on the form prediction. And then, who knows. One more spawny win from somewhere and they are on 45-46 points and near enough safe.
I'd say the bottom three look favourites, with Blackpool next, Charlton and Brum outside bets and us needing seriously bad form to drop back into it.
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I see Liam Holden has come up with some statistics on points and current form/trends etc. Wonder where he got that from?
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Update for Liam Hoden
Based on last 8 match form
Donny 52 points
Blackpool 50
Charlton 44
Birmingham 42
Yeovil 42
Millwall 39
Barnsley 38
Based on last 5 match form
Donny 58
Blackpool 52
Charlton 44
Millwall 40
Yeovil 40
Birmingham 39
Barnsley 35
I'll stick with 43-44 points being the target for safety. Even that might be a touch on the high side. Looks highly unrealistic now that it'll be as high as 48.
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I can't see us needing more that 42
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Here's Mr Hoden's rather tortuous predictions:
http://www.doncasterfreepress.co.uk/sport/doncaster-rovers/doncaster-rovers-brown-chasing-magic-50-but-far-fewer-points-should-be-required-for-survival-1-6518017
He basically takes up a lot of column inches to arrive at the same conclusions as BST!
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Update after last night's matches
Based on last 8 match form
Donny 51 points
Charlton 50
Blackpool 48
Birmingham 47
Yeovil 42
Barnsley 42
Millwall 37
Based on last 5 match form
Donny 56
Charlton 53
Blackpool 51
Birmingham 46
Barnsley 43
Millwall 38
Yeovil 37
As you were chaps.
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It seems to be becoming quite consistently Barnsley, Yeovil and Millwall. Methinks the fat lady is gargling offstage at the moment ready to make her bow.
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Yeovil v Barnsley on Saturday, a draw would be crap for both of them, a defeat would virtually condemn them, either way at least one of those is going to face a monumental task after Saturday
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It seems to be becoming quite consistently Barnsley, Yeovil and Millwall. Methinks the fat lady is gargling offstage at the moment ready to make her bow.
Exactly.
Some here get an arsequake when one of those sides gets an exceptional result. But generally, that coincides with another one getting a couple of poor results.
For any of the bottom three to get to 47-8 points now, they are going to consistently need play-off form for the last 8-9 games (15-16 points from 8-9 games).
None of them has had a run like that all season. None of them are remotely in that form at the moment.
Yeovil's best run this season has been 11 points from 8 games. Repeating that would give them 43
Barns key's best run has been 12 points from 9 games. Repeat would give them 44.
Millwall's was 12 from 8 - 44 points.
So, unless one of the bottom 3 suddenly hits a run that is 30% better than anything they've managed all season, 48 points is not going to be the safety target.
In a nutshell, I'm relaxed about the odd surprise results like Barnsley's and Yeovil's last night. If they are going to really push us, they need surprise results like that pretty much every game from now on.
For us, a point on Saturday and four points from the following 2 home games and we're just about home and hosed with 5 games left to play.
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48 points has to be our target. Don't want to be on 45 going to last game. Suspect there will be teams on 42 to 45 going to last game ane our GD will matter.
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I have a sneaky feeling yeovil will stay up - not really sure why!
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I'd like them to stay up as I don't see them keeping hold of Miiller next year so I'd expect them to be baggng one of the relegation spots.
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Next 3 games are crucial for Yeovil.
Barnsley (H)
Blackpool (A)
Charlton (A)
If Yeovil can get 6-7 points from those 3, they have a chance. That's put them on 38-39 points with a tough but not impossible last 5 matches to come (Bournemouth, Blackburn, Huddersfield, Brighton, Middsleboro).
Course if they DO get 6-7 points from those 3, by definition they are taking points from other strugglers, so that's not necessarily a bad outcome for us.
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Enough of all this Billy - just tell me here and now who is going down. If it's us, I can take it. I just haven't the patience to wait another 4 or 5 weeks to find out.
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Just looked Millwall's fixtures. Oh dear.
3 games against play-off contenders (QPR, Wigan, Forest)
3 against solid top half sides (Blackburn, Bournemouth, Watford).
2 matches against decent form bottom half sides. (us, Middlesboro).EDIT: I was looking at the wrong data for Boro. They are actually in poor form. Still better than Millwall mind.
No wonder the longest odds you can get on them to go down are 1/6.
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Just looked Millwall's fixtures. Oh dear.
3 games against play-off contenders (QPR, Wigan, Forest)
3 against solid top half sides (Blackburn, Bournemouth, Watford).
2 matches against decent form bottom half sides. (usMiddlesboro).
No wonder the longest odds you can get on them to go down are 1/6.
Are we playing them yet again this season?
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Just looked Millwall's fixtures. Oh dear.
3 games against play-off contenders (QPR, Wigan, Forest)
3 against solid top half sides (Blackburn, Bournemouth, Watford).
2 matches against decent form bottom half sides. (usMiddlesboro).
No wonder the longest odds you can get on them to go down are 1/6.
Are we playing them yet again this season?
Yes. We've only played Millwall once.
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BST do your calculations take into account the number of games that the bottom 5/6 have to play against each other or is it just purely on current form
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Just looked Millwall's fixtures. Oh dear.
3 games against play-off contenders (QPR, Wigan, Forest)
3 against solid top half sides (Blackburn, Bournemouth, Watford).
2 matches against decent form bottom half sides. (usMiddlesboro).
No wonder the longest odds you can get on them to go down are 1/6.
Are we playing them yet again this season?
Yes. We've only played Millwall once.
Ooops, that'll teach me to read things properly, I could have swore it said Charlton :)
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BST do your calculations take into account the number of games that the bottom 5/6 have to play against each other or is it just purely on current form
Purely on current form.
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Yeovil have their next three games against Barnsley, Blackpool and Charlton. Win all those and they have 41 points. So if they could then manage a win and a couple of draws from their other 5 matches they will finish on 46. Have a look at Blackpool and Birmingham's fixtures, where will they pick up the 6 and 7 points needed to reach 47? Blackpool have 4 of the top 6 yet to play. Birmingham have only beaten teams in the bottom 5 this year.
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Yeovil winning three on the trot, is a very big ask, especially since they are against sides also scrapping at the foot of the table.
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From here every tackle, every shot, header, point should be celebrated. Every game played as if it's the last. No room for caution and fear.
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Yeovil winning three on the trot, is a very big ask, especially since they are against sides also scrapping at the foot of the table.
RD/Wilts
This shows just what a task the bottom three have.
Wilts. What you are saying is that IF Yeovil can win three on the bounce for the first time this season, and then follow that up by losing only 2 of their last 5, they'll reach 46 points.
That would be by a long way their best run of the season.
We on the the hand, can reach 46 points by simply beating Birmingham and Bolton at home.
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Rather like when a side is batting in cricket, in order to assess how good the score is, there's that school of thought that says add 2 nominal wickets and look it at then. I do a similar thing with Rovers.
Add one win to our tally and give those chasing us a loss, which is entirely reasonable from the remaining games. It's purely for my own benefit and things look a lot brighter when you think 11 points clear and 7 games left.
Don't do the reverse calculations, it just makes you nervous!
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Matches involving two of the current bottom seven:
29/03/14. Yeovil v Barnsley
05/04/14. Blackpool v Yeovil: Rovers v Birmingham
08/04/14. Charlton v Yeovil
15/04/14. Charlton v Barnsley.
21/04/14. Millwall v Rovers.
03/05/14. Blackpool v Charlton.
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Correct BST. I dont think we have anything to worry about - but I do think Blackpool and Birmingham have. I am not so sure that the bottom three are the certainty that others - and the stats - seem to think.
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TRB
Thanks for summarising those matches.
Here's a thought experiment. Ignore our matches. Just look at some extreme worst-case outcomes of the others.
Scenario 1. Yeovil do v well and win all three. Charlton win all except Yeovil. Barnsley &Blackpool collapse and lose all games.
After those matches, Charlton are a point above us having played a game more than us. Blackpool are a point above us having played 2 more than us. Yeovil are a point above us having played three more than us. Barnsley are 8 points behind us having played a game more.
Scenario 2. Barnsley & Blackpool win all. Yeovil & Charlton lose all except their match which Charlton win.
Blackpool are safe.
Barnsley are 2 points behind us having played a game more.
Charlton are 2 behind us having played a game more than us.
Yeovil are 8 points behind us having played 3 more than us.
Scenario 3. Barnsley and Charlton win all games. Yeovil and Blackpool lose all except joint match which Blackpool win.
Charlton are 4 points above us having played a game more.
Blackpool are 4 points above us having played 2 games more.
Barnsley are 2 behind us having played a game more.
Yeovil are down and out.
Scenario 4. All draws.
Blackpool 3 points above us. Two matches more.
Charlton 2 points below. One match more.
Yeovil 5 points below. Three matches more.
Barnsley 6 points below. One match more.
None of those scenarios are utterly disastrous for us. 3 is the worst, but I could cope with any of the others.
In reality, I suspect there will be a scattering of wins and draws and we'll end up with something less bad than 3 and less good than 4.
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Jeez Billy, you need to get out more mate.
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Nudga.
Live by numbers
Die by numbers
Eat by numbers
Shit by numbers
Shag by numbers.
You want to try it spadge.
Actually mate, I'm doing this to while away the hours that I have to spend lying down because of the f**king illness I've had for the past couple of months.
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I can't do numbers Billy, I have a mild case of Discalculia. Doing my paper work and quotes is a proper bas**rd.
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Fed the fixtures of the bottom 7 clubs in to Squeekybumtime.com and here's the scenario coming in to the last game.
2 teams will have been relegated before last day fixtures being on 37 & 40 points after game 45.
3 teams will battle it out on the last day for the final relegation spot and will be on 43, 44 & 46 points respectively after game 45.
2 teams will be safe on 47 & 48 points after 45 games
Squeekybumtime.com says the 5 teams at risk are:- Barnsley, Millwall, Blackpool, Yeovil & Birmingham.
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Good old Squeekybumtime. Always liked Squeekybum me.
BobG
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As a side question, why is the term squeekybumtime so often referred to as being coined by alex fergerson? People have been saying it for years before he was quoted as saying it?
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BJM
A bit like: "Football eh? f***ing b*****d hell Kitsoning fire".
I were saying that constantly while driving back over the Pennines on Easter Monday 1988 after seeing Dave Mackay's finest get arseholed at Vale Park. I chose to go to that match instead of having a nailed on knee trembler with a fit lass from Meccy Grammar School 6th form. Daft t**t that I was.
That garrulous Scottish t**t uses a watered down version of it and it is seen as capturing the f***ing Zeitgeist.
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Just an aside,
Like you BST my granddad lived in both Denaby and Mexborough but he never considered himself really Doncastrian. He went to watch his football in Barnsley and Sheffiled, he was one of those old blokes who didn't feel he needed to support one team. When I took him to see Rovers he thought they were crap, mind you they were then.
Anyway... How come you support Rovers and is it common to support Rovers in that neck of the woods?
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I know a few folk round there and quite a lot support Leeds and the Sheffields as well as Rotherham out that way, apparently.
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Birmingham, Rovers and Blackpool wen't down on my first season on fm 49, 48 and 45 a very strong indicator of what's to come! Dickov got sacked too :( :( :(
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:laugh: probably not the best thing to use to judge - they usually get to high midtable after flirting with the playoffs on mine, with Dickov moving onto better things...
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Wonder what these predictions will look like if/when Leeds go into administration?
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For me (personally) this is how I see it and would be happy to see it :
21 Rovers
22 Who gives a Donald Duck
23 Who gives a Donald Duck
24 Who gives a Donald Duck
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RD
There weren't many Donny fans round there in the 70s when I was a lad. Mainly because we were garbage and there were too many other nearby teams to chuck your lot in with.
Why did I choose Donny? We had it in the family. My grandad and dad supported both Donny and Sheffield Weds. They never saw a contradiction in supporting both of them. I could have easily become a Wednesday fan I suppose. My uncle played for them in the 70s and was a real terrace hero. A bit of a Chris Brown type - fearless centre forward who led the line and put his head in where other people wouldn't put their feet (it wrecked him as well - he finished his career early due to knee injuries and walked with a stick from his mid thirties).
I was taken to a couple of Wednesday matches as a 6-7 year old but it never grabbed me. I dunno why not - maybe it was too big and too much of a separation between the fans and the pitch? But from the first time I went to see Donny, I was hooked and I only pestered to go there from that time on.
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BST- was your uncle Mike Prendergast perchance? He was a Denaby lad.
At my junior school (in Hatfield) our sports master was a fervent Owl, although he did also go to watch Rovers. The school team played in blue shirts with white sleeves and white shorts, which were the Wendy colours at that time. He arranged a trip for us to go to Hillsborough- I seem to recall it was against Cardiff in the old Division Two. I went but didn't think the fare on offer was much better than that which was served up at Belle Vue, so my head was not turned!
Mind you, most of the lads at my secondary school ended up either active or armchair Leeds fans!
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BST
That was him.
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Back to the OP, if it helps, over the last 10 seasons those occupying the bottom 3-4 berths - and in most cases the bottom 3 positions - at this stage of the season are the teams that have gone down.
The only occasion when that trend was nearly broken was in 2008/09 when Norwich yo-yoed between 3rd from bottom and 5th from bottom around this stage of the season, eventually going down 3rd from bottom on 46 points. In that season, Plymouth finished 4th from bottom on 51 points although 47 points would have kept you up.
So, if history is anything to go by, it looks like it's on our side.
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BST my mate reevsey was from Swinton and went to Swinton comp before decamped to balby but was always a donny fan
You wouldn't know him perchance?
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Bedale.
You must be joking spadge. I was at the left-footer school up the road. We were told that if we spoke to the heathens from the Proddy school, Baby Jesus would shit on us.
We were few and far between out there though. My recollection is that there were four of us at Pope Pius school out of 500 who supported Donny. About 200 supported Barnsley, 100 supported Rotherham and a handful supported more distant teams. That was the early 80s when Rotherham and Barnsley were in the old Div 2 and seemed to have fantastic cup runs every year. Kind of toughens you up to life's slings and arrows, that sort of adolescence.
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I live in that neck of the woods, at Swinton Comp myself. It's predominantly Rovrum fans who've jumped on the bandwagon, Owls and Blades. Hardly any Rovers or Dingles. And of course the obligatory Prem fans.
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Bedale.
You must be joking spadge. I was at the left-footer school up the road. We were told that if we spoke to the heathens from the Proddy school, Baby Jesus would shit on us.
We were few and far between out there though. My recollection is that there were four of us at Pope Pius school out of 500 who supported Donny. About 200 supported Barnsley, 100 supported Rotherham and a handful supported more distant teams. That was the early 80s when Rotherham and Barnsley were in the old Div 2 and seemed to have fantastic cup runs every year. Kind of toughens you up to life's slings and arrows, that sort of adolescence.
He works in mysterious ways that god fancy only picking 4 and then sending some of them to milmoor how they must have sinned
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Bedale.
You must be joking spadge. I was at the left-footer school up the road. We were told that if we spoke to the heathens from the Proddy school, Baby Jesus would shit on us.
We were few and far between out there though. My recollection is that there were four of us at Pope Pius school out of 500 who supported Donny. About 200 supported Barnsley, 100 supported Rotherham and a handful supported more distant teams. That was the early 80s when Rotherham and Barnsley were in the old Div 2 and seemed to have fantastic cup runs every year. Kind of toughens you up to life's slings and arrows, that sort of adolescence.
He works in mysterious ways that god fancy only picking 4 and then sending some of them to milmoor how they must have sinned
That was they're penance Scaley,plus he felt sorry for Rov'rum,he was being ''The Good Samaritan'' sending a few to Millmoor.
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Update after tonight's games.
Final table based on last 8 form
Donny 54 points
Charlton 49
Blackpool 48
Barnsley 47
Birmingham 46
Yeovil 37
Millwall 37
Based on last 5 match form
Donny 55
Blackpool 50
Charlton 49
Birmingham 46
Barnsley 45
Millwall 36
Yeovil 36
On the surface, seems to be a bit of an uptick in the safety target compared to the last few weeks. I think that will vanish next week. Several teams won the 8th game ago. Unless they win next week, the points prediction for the third bottom team is going to come tumbling down.
Still sticking with 43-44 points as the target. Nearly there.
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I still think the bottom three is nailed on. I can only see Birmingham (as the 8 game form would suggest) falling into it from here. Barnsley will be the team that escapes if any.
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So for the most pessimistic like me, what is the worst a team has done from the position we are in points wise for the final 7 games.
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Update after tonight's games.
Final table based on last 8 form
Donny 54 points
Charlton 49
Blackpool 48
Barnsley 47
Birmingham 46
Yeovil 37
Millwall 37
Based on last 5 match form
Donny 55
Blackpool 50
Charlton 49
Birmingham 46
Barnsley 45
Millwall 36
Yeovil 36
On the surface, seems to be a bit of an uptick in the safety target compared to the last few weeks. I think that will vanish next week. Several teams won the 8th game ago. Unless they win next week, the points prediction for the third bottom team is going to come tumbling down.
Still sticking with 43-44 points as the target. Nearly there.
I understand your caveat, but all your figures are telling me is that the safety target is more like 47-48. Which is what I've been saying all along.
However, I think we'll achieve that and possibly more. We only need to average a point a game now to get to 50, which will certainly be safe.
Charlton v Barnsley on 15th April could be a huge game in terms of deciding who finishes third-bottom.
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Just noticed the form table, based on the last 6 games, on the twitter feed. Knew we'd be doing well, and Leeds and Forest less so but surprised to see Yeovil 3rd bottom. In my mind they are flying.
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TRB
I still don't see it. The bottom 2 have no chance of making 47-48 points.
Barnsley will do very well to get 12-13 points from the fixtures that they have left. They have a much harder run to come than the one they have had recently. They haven't beaten a team in decent form since early December, and they have a lot of in form sides to play.
We'll see...
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Jon
Yeovil haven't been in good form for several weeks. They had a decent mini-run at the end of Feb but that was it. They are a weak team who will finish in the bottom 2.
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I Hope Barnsley stay up,but they will have to be really consistent to keep it going for so long,i think Yeovil will keep fighting but they are goners for me,Gary Johnson's done a right job with the squad they have,even they've got odd players that are quality,Millwall will go but again will fight to the end,and having Simeon Jackson gives them a chance,but even he won't stop them going down,i think then it's between Charlton and Birmingham,Birmingham could be the one's to go,can't get any wins at home,that might just get them relegated,Blackpool will just have enough for another season in this league.
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Next Round of fixtures
Wigan v Leeds In for another battering
Barnsley v Brighton Do Brighton believe they can make p/offs
Blackpool v Yeovil Yeovil lose and their gone
Charlton v Reading Reading on the crest of a slump
Forest v Millwall Millwall lose and it's bye bye
After this weekend it could be perm any 1 from 8 for that last spot
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I think BST needs to have a word with this guy:
http://www.motforum.com/article.php?page=30125
He thinks 47 points is not enough!
I like the way he finds losing to TLOD more depressing than losing to the other clubs listed. Do I detect a "Donnywhite?" :lol:
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Cheecky t**t."Defeats to Bolton, Reading, Burnley, Bournemouth, Charlton and most depressingly Doncaster. Relegation form in anyone’s book".
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He's not entertaining the idea of a points deduction...
The way things are heading that is a real possibility and the prospect of Leeds United being relegated is a real possibility too.
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I would happily take losing all the remaining games this season and finishing fourth bottom, if only that pathetic joke of a club got relegated.
Indeed my loathing contempt of them will only be satisfied if they eventually reach their true place in the West Yorkshire Sunday League Division Six. Or even better, fold.
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I did some predictions based on the remaining games for each team. This is how I had the final table looking:
Charlton 50
Blackpool 49
Rovers 49
Birmingham 47
Barnsley 45
Millwall 41
Yeovil 40
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Where's the analysts? I need reassuring :)
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I did some predictions based on the remaining games for each team. This is how I had the final table looking:
Charlton 50
Blackpool 49
Rovers 49
Birmingham 47
Barnsley 45
Millwall 41
Yeovil 40
Phew .... thank goodness for that
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I did some predictions based on the remaining games for each team. This is how I had the final table looking:
Charlton 50
Blackpool 49
Rovers 49
Birmingham 47
Barnsley 45
Millwall 41
Yeovil 40
Phew .... thank goodness for that
That was before yesterday, though. While I still think we'll survive we made the task much harder for ourselves by losing. I expected at least a point from yesterday's game.
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Go on. I couldn;t help it. Update after last night's games.
Final table based on last 8 form
Charlton 52 points
Birmingham 47
Donny 51
Blackpool 46
Millwall 46
Barnsley 44
Yeovil 39
Based on last 5 match form
Charlton 54
Birmingham 49
Donny 49
Blackpool 46
Millwall 46
Barnsley 43
Yeovil 40
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Thats made me feel a bit better fingers crossed for this weekend
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Its optimistic against the teams we've still got to play especially as we are getting injuries to key players, or putting players on the pitch who are not 100% fit
but........................................
I'm keeping everything crossed including my butt cheeks
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Its optimistic against the teams we've still got to play especially as we are getting injuries to key players, or putting players on the pitch who are not 100% fit
but........................................
I'm keeping everything crossed including my butt cheeks
Why not them and all? lack of ambition I say.
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We do better against bigger teams so the pressure on them to win to get in the play offs could work well for us
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With the games left to play
This is how I see it
Bolton. 54
Charlton. 53
Birmingham. 46
Doncaster. 45
Millwall. 44
Barnsley. 41
Yeovil. 37
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With the games left to play
This is how I see it
Bolton. 54
Charlton. 53
Birmingham. 46
Doncaster. 45
Millwall. 44
Barnsley. 41
Yeovil. 37
Where have Blackpool gone?
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With the games left to play
This is how I see it
Bolton. 54
Charlton. 53
Birmingham. 46
Doncaster. 45
Millwall. 44
Barnsley. 41
Yeovil. 37
And Blackpool?
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So shit they're stricken from the records leaving only two relegation spots perhaps?
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With the games left to play
This is how I see it
Bolton. 54
Charlton. 53
Birmingham. 46
Doncaster. 45
Millwall. 44
Barnsley. 41
Yeovil. 37
And Blackpool?
Sorry missed out
With the games left to play
This is how I see it
Bolton. 54
Charlton. 53
Birmingham. 46
Doncaster. 45
Millwall. 44
Blackpool. 43
Barnsley. 41
Yeovil. 37
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Steve- I tend to agree with you about the bottom 3, but I think Blackpool will pick up some points. 46 might just be enough for us (and Millwall).
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This is how I now see it
Charlton 50
Birm'ham 48
Rovers 47
Blackp 47
Millwall 47
Barnsley 42
Yeovil 41
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are you sure, Baz, that our GD will put us top of the 47's?
BobG
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Not sure at all. Millwall have the worst though.
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Goal difference as it stands:
Birmingham -10
Rovers -25
Blackpool -24
Millwall -30
Charlton -20
Barnsley -28
Yeovil -25
Too close to call as far as the majority of teams, but probably worth a point as far as Birmingham are concerned.
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Update after today
Final table based on last 8 form
Charlton 50 points
Donny 48
Birmingham 47
Blackpool 46
Millwall 46
Barnsley 40
Yeovil 40
Based on last 5 match form
Birmingham 49
Charlton 48
Millwall 48
Donny 45
Blackpool 43
Barnsley 43
Yeovil 40
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It's getting a bit scary now. :laugh:
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The fact that this has changed so rapidly in the past few weeks seems to render this a little bit worthless to me. I'll be ecstatic if I'm proven wrong though.
Who saw Millwall getting 8 points from the last 4, and us 0 from the last 3, for example?
I haven't studied the fixtures in any great detail, but does anyone in that bottom group have a tougher run-in than us?
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The fact that this has changed so rapidly in the past few weeks seems to render this a little bit worthless to me. I'll be ecstatic if I'm proven wrong though.
Who saw Millwall getting 8 points from the last 4, and us 0 from the last 3, for example?
I haven't studied the fixtures in any great detail, but does anyone in that bottom group have a tougher run-in than us?
Blackpool have:
Burnley (H)
Brighton (A)
Wigan (A)
Charlton (H)
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It's all about Robbie's Countdown to Safety for me. I need my fix.
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Blackpool have Burnley, Brighton, wigan and Charlton to play, they surely won't get more than 3 more points, we need that win before the last game, we do not want to be going into that game needing something!
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The trouble with the Wigan and Charlton games are they might not have anything to play for by then.
The Burnley one thankfully could be the game that puts the Clarets up.
And fortunately, by letting Ipswich roll us over today, we've kept Brighton on their toes. Cleverly done.
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Only once this season have we lost more than three on the bounce and that was when we had that dire period over Christmas/New Year; we lost four in a row and then drew a game. So we're due a point.
Or have I reached the deluded "clutching at straws" stage?
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Update after last night
Final table based on last 8 form
Donny 48 points
Charlton 47
Birmingham 47
Blackpool 46
Millwall 46
Barnsley 44
Yeovil 40
Based on last 5 match form
Birmingham 49
Millwall 48
Charlton 47
Donny 45
Barnsley 45
Blackpool 43
Yeovil 40
For the record, I still think these predictions are a tad on the high side. Most of the bottom clubs have bloody hard final fixtures. I don't expect Barnsley, Millwall and Charlton all to get 5-8 points from their remaining games.
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For the record, I still think these predictions are a tad on the high side. Most of the bottom clubs have bloody hard final fixtures. I don't expect Barnsley, Millwall and Charlton all to get 5-8 points from their remaining games.
BST- I think that is called "whistling in the dark!" ;)
I don't blame you though, I am also nervous although I have long maintained that we would need 47-48 points in order to be safe. Looking at the final seven games I thought we'd be pretty close to that by now and it is a concern that the three games out of the seven that I perceived as "easier" have produced no points.
I have a feeling it will go down to the last game and there could be five teams scrambling to avoid two places now. The result last night was good in one way, in that Charlton are well and truly in the mix, but bad in another in that Barnsley will now fancy their chances of pulling off another of their houdini acts.
Incidentally, if your five game table is correct then we will almost certainly go down on goal difference. Barnsley's (-28) is only two goals worse than ours (-26) and if they win two of their four while we only draw two of ours then they will almost certainly improve their GD against ours unless they get heavily beaten in the other two games.
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It's going to be intriguing to compare how this plays out now compared with the earlier predictions....
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TRB
For the record, I started off this form
prediction because I was fed up with hearing people saying "So and so are in good form. We're going to need 55 points to stay up" or the like. The form prediction table has been remarkably consistent in predicting that something between 43-46 points would be the target. It's currently at the upper end of that range, primarily because several sides near the bottom have had some easier than normal matches (e.g. Barnsley have beaten 2 of the bottom 4 in their last 5 games. Charlton have played 2 of the bottom 4 plus Leeds, the then 2nd weakest side in the division. Mill wall have win 2 games in their last 5 - one against the weakest form side in the division and one against Wigan's 2nd string.) All these sides have much harder matches to come now.
I suspect, as I have done for most of the past 3 months, that 44-45 points will ensure survival.
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I've thought since reading this thread that 46 pts will be around the mark, one more win should be enough for Rovers to feel reasonably confident. Finding that one one more win is becoming quite a big task though.
I have to admit, I didn't really expect our form to collapse while seeing the clubs below us suddenly pick up though. It's become more uncomfortable than I thought it would be.
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I think 46 points will be ample. For it to be more than that, you'd need three of the following to occur
Barnsley get 7 points from 4 games
Millwall get 6 points from 4 games
Charlton get 5 points from 5 games
Blackpool get 4 points from 4 games.
Some of those teams will do that. I don't think 3 out of 4 will do.
So, with 7 matches left, we needed three points to hit 46 points. It's worth noting that since we've been in the Championship, we've only had three runs where we got fewer than 3 points from 7 games.
1) Sept-Oct 2008, 1 point from 7 games when we were perfecting our "let's keep possession and never have a shot, and insist on starting with Gareth Thomas and Lewis Guy up front while Heffernan gets splinters in his arse" approach.
2) First 7 games of 2011-12 - 1 point - with a team that had Richard Naylor, Mustapha Dumbuya and Sam Hird in defence, and Kyle Bennett and Giles Barnes up front.
3) Late on on 2011/12 - 1 point in 7 games as the Experiment turned into Frankenstein's monster without the electricity.
We are much, much better than in any of those periods. I would be amazed if we didn't pick up 3 points from somewhere in these last 4 games.
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My concern is our ability to score goals compared to our relegation competitors. Given that we find it difficult to keep clean sheets we probably need to score goals to pick up points and even just to draw games. Not sure our recent form shows we can do enough but I'm crossing everything
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1)Gareth Thomas and Lewis Guy up front while Heffernan gets splinters in his arse" approach.
Who's going to be the first to make the somewhat crude observation?
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My concern is our ability to score goals compared to our relegation competitors. Given that we find it difficult to keep clean sheets we probably need to score goals to pick up points and even just to draw games. Not sure our recent form shows we can do enough but I'm crossing everything
With four games left that mean as much to the opposition as they do to us. Derby automatic or top spot in playoffs, Millwall relegation, Reading playoffs and Leicester celebration.
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1)Gareth Thomas and Lewis Guy up front while Heffernan gets splinters in his arse" approach.
Who's going to be the first to make the somewhat crude observation?
I don't know about the crude observation but I was struggling to remember when we were so short of strikers that we had to play the former VSC Chairman up front.
Mind you, it must have been a close call between Alex Peterson and Rob Clark for the Millwall home game in December!
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I believe it was the homosexual Welsh rugby star
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1)Gareth Thomas and Lewis Guy up front while Heffernan gets splinters in his arse" approach.
Who's going to be the first to make the somewhat crude observation?
I don't know about the crude observation but I was struggling to remember when we were so short of strikers that we had to play the former VSC Chairman up front.
Mind you, it must have been a close call between Alex Peterson and Rob Clark for the Millwall home game in December!
The match that saw Robinson and Macheda both left on the bench in favour of a 19 year old debutant?
It'll probably end up being forgotten that Dickov CHOSE to play Peterson in that game rather than having to. As I remember, Millwall were there for the taking too. One of those 'missed opportunities' I fear we'll live to regret if we go down!
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Both of them had had absolute stinkers in the Boxing Day game against Ipswich. Macheda in particular looked totally uninterested and when he was pulled off he walked straight down the tunnel. I really didn't think he'd play for us again.
However Macheda nearly won us that Millwall game with a shot that grazed the post and then he and Robinson both put in decent displays at QPR a few days later.
If we do go down this season there'll be lots of reference to "ones that got away" but to me that wasn't one of them. Dickov felt he couldn't start either Macheda or Robinson after such awful displays and I for one don't disagree with him.
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I've maintained from the start we needed 48 points to avoid a last day carve up as form went out of the window some while ago and you can't predict results.
I did think however, we would avoid it thinking we'd amass another 5 points from where we are now.
Barnsley get 7 points from 4 games - Very possible
Millwall get 6 points from 4 games - Probable
Charlton get 5 points from 5 games - Almost certain
Blackpool get 4 points from 4 games- More difficult
We now need to buck the trend and claim an unexpected result or two.
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Both of them had had absolute stinkers in the Boxing Day game against Ipswich. Macheda in particular looked totally uninterested and when he was pulled off he walked straight down the tunnel. I really didn't think he'd play for us again.
However Macheda nearly won us that Millwall game with a shot that grazed the post and then he and Robinson both put in decent displays at QPR a few days later.
If we do go down this season there'll be lots of reference to "ones that got away" but to me that wasn't one of them. Dickov felt he couldn't start either Macheda or Robinson after such awful displays and I for one don't disagree with him.
I know they were, I was at both games. I felt it was the wrong decision not to play at least one of them at the time and I stick by that. Millwall were useless at the time, could barely buy a win anywhere, and as the home team I thought we should've gone for the win rather than just trying to 'stop the rot' as it were.
Oh well. I suppose we'll see how things pan out. If Millwall stay up at our expense, I'll look back at that game even more as 'one that got away' than I do now.
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1)Gareth Thomas and Lewis Guy up front while Heffernan gets splinters in his arse" approach.
Who's going to be the first to make the somewhat crude observation?
I don't know about the crude observation but I was struggling to remember when we were so short of strikers that we had to play the former VSC Chairman up front.
Mind you, it must have been a close call between Alex Peterson and Rob Clark for the Millwall home game in December!
Nice one TRB
My ale-addled brain confused and combined two of the more immobile plodders from our previous Championship sojourn.
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I've maintained from the start we needed 48 points to avoid a last day carve up as form went out of the window some while ago and you can't predict results.
I did think however, we would avoid it thinking we'd amass another 5 points from where we are now.
Barnsley get 7 points from 4 games - Very possible
Millwall get 6 points from 4 games - Probable
Charlton get 5 points from 5 games - Almost certain
Blackpool get 4 points from 4 games- More difficult
We now need to buck the trend and claim an unexpected result or two.
Barnsley have Leeds and QPR at home, Derby and Boro away - where are they going to get 7 points from?
Millwall have Boro, QPR and Bournmouth as well as us, where do their 6 points come from?
It will all be a lot clearer come Monday evening thats for sure.
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I've maintained from the start we needed 48 points to avoid a last day carve up as form went out of the window some while ago and you can't predict results.
I did think however, we would avoid it thinking we'd amass another 5 points from where we are now.
Barnsley get 7 points from 4 games - Very possible
Millwall get 6 points from 4 games - Probable
Charlton get 5 points from 5 games - Almost certain
Blackpool get 4 points from 4 games- More difficult
We now need to buck the trend and claim an unexpected result or two.
Barnsley have Leeds and QPR at home, Derby and Boro away - where are they going to get 7 points from?
Millwall have Boro, QPR and Bournmouth as well as us, where do their 6 points come from?
It will all be a lot clearer come Monday evening thats for sure.
Us and Bournemouth.
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Millwall have only won three of their past 16 games. One of those was against Wigan's 2nd team. Another was against a Forest team whose record over the past 12 games is W0 D5 L7.
Millwall will not get 6 points from their last 4 games.
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They beat Derby though, and snatched draws against two good sides in Watford & Blackburn. And it wasn't really Wigan's second team, was it? They left a few out, granted, but a team of Carson; Boyce, Barnett, Kiernan, Beausejour; Maloney, Collison, McEachran, McClean; Maynard, Waghorn is hardly a weak one for this division.
Not saying they will get 6 points, but depending on how you write it, you can easily argue that those results indicate a recent upturn and that they've got a chance.
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I've maintained from the start we needed 48 points to avoid a last day carve up as form went out of the window some while ago and you can't predict results.
I did think however, we would avoid it thinking we'd amass another 5 points from where we are now.
Barnsley get 7 points from 4 games - Very possible
Millwall get 6 points from 4 games - Probable
Charlton get 5 points from 5 games - Almost certain
Blackpool get 4 points from 4 games- More difficult
We now need to buck the trend and claim an unexpected result or two.
Barnsley have Leeds and QPR at home, Derby and Boro away - where are they going to get 7 points from?
Millwall have Boro, QPR and Bournmouth as well as us, where do their 6 points come from?
It will all be a lot clearer come Monday evening thats for sure.
Us and Bournemouth.
Bournemouth are two points off the play-offs, unbeaten in 6 of which they have won 5, have home matches against Wednesday and Forest to come, you really dont believe in form do you?
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Yeah they beat Derby. That sort of result does happen. But it doesn't happen very often for a poor side.
As for the Wigan match, Wigan left out 8 players who had played in the previous game. 7 of the players who played against Millwall were left out from the Cup semi. Of the ones who played against Millwall, Kiernan had started 4 league matches this season, Maloney 5, Maynard 8, McEachran 4, Waghorn 9. Maybe not a second XI, but a far weaker side than they should have put out.
Millwall have been in poor form for months. Even with recent wins against Forest and a weakened Wigan, they have only picked up 9 points from the last 8 games (which is the usual timescale over which form is judged).
And that run has included matches against the two worst form sides in the division (Leeds and Forest) matches against 3 of the bottom 7 (Charlton, Blackpool and Birmingham) and the Wigan match.
That run is their second best run of the season. If they repeat that rate of return from here on in, they'll still only end up with 44-45 points.
I'll stand by my prediction. Millwall will not get another 6 points this season. If they do, and we go down as a result, it's my fault.
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Yeah they beat Derby. That sort of result does happen. But it doesn't happen very often for a poor side.
As for the Wigan match, Wigan left out 8 players who had played in the previous game. 7 of the players who played against Millwall were left out from the Cup semi. Of the ones who played against Millwall, Kiernan had started 4 league matches this season, Maloney 5, Maynard 8, McEachran 4, Waghorn 9. Maybe not a second XI, but a far weaker side than they should have put out.
I'll stand by my prediction. Millwall will not get another 6 points this season. If they do, and we go down as a result, it's my fault.
Kiernan I'll give you, but for the others it's too simplistic just to look at the number of starts they've made.
Maloney has been injured for a large chunk of the season. But he's still a class player at this level clearly, having been one of their best players last season (he won their Player of the Year).
Maynard only joined in January.
McEachran only joined in late January. He's a loanee from Chelsea and an England U21 player. Clearly not a 'weak' player.
Waghorn only joined in January, and is first choice striker (proven by his strike rate there, and the fact they've made his loan move permanent).
Plus, those who played v Millwall but were left out at Wembley included Leon Barnett (37 league apps this season), and Jack Collison & James McClean, both players with Premiership and international pedigree.
As I said, hardly a weak side.
I'm not making a prediction as to how many points they'll get, but I think it's a bit disingenuous to write off their recent results as being totally insignificant.
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Pib
Point taken. Look at my modified post for a more detailed explanation of why they are shite and will not get another 6 points.
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Pib
Point taken. Look at my modified post for a more detailed explanation of why they are shite and will not get another 6 points.
You may well be right.
Neither is it beyond the realms of possibility that they'll beat us (see DRFC's dire away record) taking them to 43 points which is what we're on now. That leaves us needing to better their results (i.e. 1 win to be sure) from Derby (H), Reading (H) or Leicester (A). That's no gimme IMO.
Maybe I'm just thinking worst case scenario, but we haven't half made things bloody difficult for ourselves with recent results!
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I've maintained from the start we needed 48 points to avoid a last day carve up as form went out of the window some while ago and you can't predict results.
I did think however, we would avoid it thinking we'd amass another 5 points from where we are now.
Barnsley get 7 points from 4 games - Very possible
Millwall get 6 points from 4 games - Probable
Charlton get 5 points from 5 games - Almost certain
Blackpool get 4 points from 4 games- More difficult
We now need to buck the trend and claim an unexpected result or two.
Barnsley have Leeds and QPR at home, Derby and Boro away - where are they going to get 7 points from?
Millwall have Boro, QPR and Bournmouth as well as us, where do their 6 points come from?
It will all be a lot clearer come Monday evening thats for sure.
Us and Bournemouth.
Bournemouth are two points off the play-offs, unbeaten in 6 of which they have won 5, have home matches against Wednesday and Forest to come, you really dont believe in form do you?
Last match of season Bournemouth might have nothing to play for then,could be thinking of the beach.
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(https://encrypted-tbn1.gstatic.com/images?q=tbn:ANd9GcR9OFuU0qTwtrSVrULkt6ALfJ2_c9TOv98vnTS8AkWr_wkmEcSDN9yJTKA)
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I've maintained from the start we needed 48 points to avoid a last day carve up as form went out of the window some while ago and you can't predict results.
I did think however, we would avoid it thinking we'd amass another 5 points from where we are now.
Barnsley get 7 points from 4 games - Very possible
Millwall get 6 points from 4 games - Probable
Charlton get 5 points from 5 games - Almost certain
Blackpool get 4 points from 4 games- More difficult
We now need to buck the trend and claim an unexpected result or two.
Barnsley have Leeds and QPR at home, Derby and Boro away - where are they going to get 7 points from?
Millwall have Boro, QPR and Bournmouth as well as us, where do their 6 points come from?
It will all be a lot clearer come Monday evening thats for sure.
Us and Bournemouth.
Bournemouth are two points off the play-offs, unbeaten in 6 of which they have won 5, have home matches against Wednesday and Forest to come, you really dont believe in form do you?
Last match of season Bournemouth might have nothing to play for then,could be thinking of the beach.
Last match of the season Leicester will definately have nothing to play for, will they also be on the beach?
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I've maintained from the start we needed 48 points to avoid a last day carve up as form went out of the window some while ago and you can't predict results.
I did think however, we would avoid it thinking we'd amass another 5 points from where we are now.
Barnsley get 7 points from 4 games - Very possible
Millwall get 6 points from 4 games - Probable
Charlton get 5 points from 5 games - Almost certain
Blackpool get 4 points from 4 games- More difficult
We now need to buck the trend and claim an unexpected result or two.
Barnsley have Leeds and QPR at home, Derby and Boro away - where are they going to get 7 points from?
Millwall have Boro, QPR and Bournmouth as well as us, where do their 6 points come from?
It will all be a lot clearer come Monday evening thats for sure.
Us and Bournemouth.
Bournemouth are two points off the play-offs, unbeaten in 6 of which they have won 5, have home matches against Wednesday and Forest to come, you really dont believe in form do you?
Last match of season Bournemouth might have nothing to play for then,could be thinking of the beach.
Last match of the season Leicester will definately have nothing to play for, will they also be on the beach?
Hopefully.
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I think we should just focus on our own results than worrying about what others will do.
A draw tomorrow night and avoid defeat on Monday should more or less be enough with two games left to pick up another point if required. A win in any of the four remaining games should see us playing Championship football next season.
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How's this looking as it stands then? :chair:
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Too scary to contemplate, I'm guessing. Hence no update.
My botty is doing the 5p/50p dance.
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Sorry people but we are now past the form analysis-paralysis stage.
More a case of phone a friend: http://www.samaritans.org
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Gan on then, since you ask. Not that it really makes any point now, as form means less than random results when there are only a few matches left.
Final table based on last 8 form
Millwall 50 points
Birmingham 47
Charlton 47
Donny 46
Blackpool 44
Barnsley 43
Yeovil 40
Based on last 5 match form
Birmingham 48
Millwall 48
Charlton 45
Donny 45
Blackpool 43
Barnsley 41
Yeovil 40
Keep calm and stop embarrassing yersens.
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Lol! Right now, tonight, I can't even work out where those 2 wonderful points in the 5 match analysis are going to come from. I'm going to wish upon a star I think..........
BobG
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No problem 3 from Millwall should be enough
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I hope...... Omens aren't good though. Wellens half fit at best; not playing possibly even. Billy Sharp with big issues. Brownie injured maybe? A losing mentality. An inability to score goals even with forwards fit and firing. An inability to keep a clean sheet. And as a purely personal opinion, I don't think a good chunk of this side has the balls.
So, I expect a 4-0 win on Monday then.....
BobG
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I can see the game starting with a defensive mindset probably 5 in the middle and then changing to try and win the game
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"Keep calm and stop embarrassing yersens"
So speaks the calming voice of reason from BST.
Only one small problem BST...we are deep in the relegation s--t.
If we survive now it will be a minor miracle, and I for one am quite angry that we find ourselves in such a position.
Dickov has had the full support of the board and has been able to sign the players he has targeted.
Of course we have had injuries, but every time we've lost a key player PD has been allowed to bring in another signing to get us back to strength.
Personally, I'm not only disappointed but also very angry that we find ourselves staring down the trapdoor of relegation.
The manager has failed us this season. So has the squad of players. There are some notable exceptions and surprse, surprise....they are the old stalwarts such as Brown and Copps.
I am well and truly pissed off.
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Lol! Right now, tonight, I can't even work out where those 2 wonderful points in the 5 match analysis are going to come from. I'm going to wish upon a star I think..........
BobG
Bob- I'll freely admit to being a pessimist but even so I think it is possible that we will lose at Millwall and yet still stay up. I have a feeling we will win one of the final two games of the season, probably the home game with Reading.
The thing that makes me nervous is that we'll probably be unsure of our fate going into the final game of the season. That wasn't something I envisaged after we won at Leeds.
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We had the Mansfield moment as the defining point when we won league two a few years back. If we go down this year it will all be down to the Birmingham moment.
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I think we should just focus on our own results than worrying about what others will do.
A draw tomorrow night and avoid defeat on Monday should more or less be enough with two games left to pick up another point if required. A win in any of the four remaining games should see us playing Championship football next season.
I'm afraid it's other teams results that we will rely on to keep us up, we will get no more points this season.
Nothing to come from the den. Reading will do us at home and we might be lucky enough to get a single charitable point from leics, if we are lucky. So it will be down to other results. I can't see it any other way
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It sure feels like the team have bottled it. Injuries to key players and a wafer thin squad haven't helped but we still have a group that should be more than capable of digging out the odd point.
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I think we should just focus on our own results than worrying about what others will do.
A draw tomorrow night and avoid defeat on Monday should more or less be enough with two games left to pick up another point if required. A win in any of the four remaining games should see us playing Championship football next season.
I'm afraid it's other teams results that we will rely on to keep us up, we will get no more points this season.
Nothing to come from the den. Reading will do us at home and we might be lucky enough to get a single charitable point from leics, if we are lucky. So it will be down to other results. I can't see it any other way
Just as I have ben saying for ages. I think we could be safe with what we have now as I don't see three of those below us getting what they need to pass us
A win manana would be great though to make sure
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Here we go.
(One or two of you might want to hit the BACK button now, as this is just congenital lust for vapid stats.)
Charlton 49 points
Millwall 47
Donny 46
Birmingham 45
Blackpool 44
Barnsley 42
Yeovil 39
Based on last 5 match form
Charlton 49
Millwall 48
Birmingham 45
Donny 44
Blackpool 43
Barnsley 40
Yeovil 39
Just like the vapid stats have been saying for months. 44-45 points will almost certainly turn out to be the safety target. We might already be safe. A point on Saturday and I'd sleep easy
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I won't be sleeping easy until we're 100% safe... Possibly after the Leicester game.
I hate relying on other results to ensure our safety. Sadly this will most probably be the case/situation next season if we stay up.
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do you not subscribe to this "form goes out the window at this stage of the season" malarky BST?
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Here we go.
(One or two of you might want to hit the BACK button now, as this is just congenital lust for vapid stats.)
Charlton 49 points
Millwall 47
Donny 46
Birmingham 45
Blackpool 44
Barnsley 42
Yeovil 39
Based on last 5 match form
Charlton 49
Millwall 48
Birmingham 45
Donny 44
Blackpool 43
Barnsley 40
Yeovil 39
Just like the vapid stats have been saying for months. 44-45 points will almost certainly turn out to be the safety target. We might already be safe. A point on Saturday and I'd sleep easy
Can we have it to two decimal points next time please BST.
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BJW
It does for individual teams on individual matches. It doesn't for whole divisions.
The figures have been saying for at least 3 months that a rare low number of points were going to be enough to stay up this year. The figures have continued to say that, with remarkable consistency every week. It might change over the next 12 days. But I don't expect it to.
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Lies, damned lies & statistics.
The more I 'put my foot on the accelerator', the larger loom the 'vehicles' in my rear view mirror (& I'm fast running out of road).
Nothing short of the performance of the season & 3 points on saturday will keep us in this division.
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Lies, damned lies & statistics.
The more I 'put my foot on the accelerator', the larger loom the 'vehicles' in my rear view mirror (& I'm fast running out of road).
Nothing short of the performance of the season & 3 points on saturday will keep us in this division.
Er, the Rovers haven't exactly been flooring it recently have they?
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One thing though - last season we'd have been down by now.
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Two massive games but then it's two massive for every team at the bottom. Think we can safely say that Barnsley and Yeovil are toast, and I think Blackpool are in the type of downward trajectory it's almost impossible to pull out of.
I really, really fancy us to do Reading.
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One thing though - last season we'd have been down by now.
That's true but it's also irrelevant. It means nothing other than the fact that the gap between the top and bottom is bigger this year than it was last year.
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Mark: the sort of downward trajectory like our own played 5, won none, drawn 1 trajectory?
Lol!
BobG
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I 'ate Reading.
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I 'ate Reading.
I Hope it's strawberry flavoured paper Chris ;),seriously though,it's not much of a surprise we are doing it the hard way,it's still in our own hands get two wins we stay up,get four points we stay up,we get two points we will probably stay up,we get none,then there is a good chance we are down,unless the others pick up more,come on lads get them points on the board and let us relax.
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Mark: the sort of downward trajectory like our own played 5, won none, drawn 1 trajectory?
Lol!
BobG
Blackpool's has been much longer than ours though.... That is the thought I am sticking with...
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I was sure we would be relegated before a ball was kicked this Season and I continued to believe that throughout the Season
Then when Billy signed I suddenly "flipped" into becoming an optimist - we were going to survive come what may. I have said on here and to many people that 43 points might even be enough. That Yeovil Barnsley and Blackpool would not get to that target
Then during the Millwall game they showed the Table as it stood on SSN and if Rovers had gone one down they would have dropped into the bottom 3 courtesy of their Goal Diff and suddenly my optimism was gone.
We need anything we can get from Reading - because I don't but it that Leicester will be "on the Beach" and again point people to the Wolves game at the end of the Season they were going up. They and Leicester WANT a suitable result before picking up the Championship Trophy and whereas Wolves spoiled "our day" Leicester have the opportunity to ruin our Season
As RTR says above its
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Rovers managing to stay in this division is always a huge achievement.
It's a nail biter again but we are in a position that it's in our own hands, we might be safe already, one more point could be enough, we'd all be able to relax if we could take all three on Satdi.
Somehow I think it's going to the last game, where we'll find ourselves behind and needing a point and time running out and then...
It's never dull following the Rovers is it? Some clubs just bumble about in mid table for years you know.
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You know I've been saying for months that 45 points would keep a side up this season?
I'd prefer not to have been proved right this way.
Knackers...
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Just looked Millwall's fixtures. Oh dear.
3 games against play-off contenders (QPR, Wigan, Forest)
3 against solid top half sides (Blackburn, Bournemouth, Watford).
2 matches against decent form bottom half sides. (us, Middlesboro).EDIT: I was looking at the wrong data for Boro. They are actually in poor form. Still better than Millwall mind.
No wonder the longest odds you can get on them to go down are 1/6.
They did n't do too badly out of those 8 games did they?
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If you look back at BST's initial analysis (on 13th March) then the spread of points is remarkably accurate. It is just the team names that aren't quite right.
Final table based on last 8 match form
Donny 51 points
Birmingham 48
Blackpool 45
Yeovil 43
Barnsley 41
Millwall 38
Charlton 37
Based on last 5 match form
Donny 51
Yeovil 48
Blackpool 47
Birmingham 46
Barnsley 43
Millwall 40
Charlton 39
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Filo.
Aye. What do I know.
TRB
That was kind of the point. It was never about predicting WHO would survive or go down. It was about the statistical improbability that so many teams would hit form as to lead to the survival target being 48-50. With hindsight, it might have been more sensible (and saved one or two posters' blood pressure) if I'd not given team names, but just said what form was predicting that the final points total would be of the teams ending up in 24th, 23rd, 22nd etc place.
The whole point I've been making by this analysis was that it's a myth that there is a cross the board improvement in form by a the sides at the bottom in the final quarter of the season. And so, we shouldn't get het up about team A hitting form, because it is typically balanced by Team B losing form.
Unfortunately, we've ended up being Team B. Doesn't change the basic analysis though.
That is why I'm bloody annoyed about the fact that the club seems to have gone for the old wive's tale about 50 points. I wonder if we'd have chucked away the first half hour against Bolton if someone had sat down and thought about whether we REALLY needed to bet the pot on winning that match?
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Filo.
Aye. What do I know.
TRB
That was kind of the point. It was never about predicting WHO would survive or go down. It was about the statistical improbability that so many teams would hit form as to lead to the survival target being 48-50. The whole point I've been making was not to get het up about team A hitting form, because it is typically balanced by Team B losing form.
Unfortunately, we've ended up being Team B. Doesn't change the basic analysis though.
I'm not knocking your analysis, I think you've been spot on with the points target, I just saw that regarding Millwall and no one could have predicted their points haul from those 8 games, it's unbelievable, we only had to stumble over the line, instead we tripped up over the kerb and let others overtake us
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Filo
It's alright cocker. I don't do smilies, but if I did, there would have been an ironic one at the end of my response to you.
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Filo.
Aye. What do I know.
TRB
That was kind of the point. It was never about predicting WHO would survive or go down. It was about the statistical improbability that so many teams would hit form as to lead to the survival target being 48-50. The whole point I've been making was not to get het up about team A hitting form, because it is typically balanced by Team B losing form.
Unfortunately, we've ended up being Team B. Doesn't change the basic analysis though.
I'm not knocking your analysis, I think you've been spot on with the points target, I just saw that regarding Millwall and no one could have predicted their points haul from those 8 games, it's unbelievable, we only had to stumble over the line, instead we tripped up over the kerb and let others overtake us
Ian Holloway is a force to be reckoned with.
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Filo
It's alright cocker. I don't do smilies, but if I did, there would have been an ironic one at the end of my response to you.
Careful now:
"Strangely, when you contest any of his profound proclamations he rails and reverts to parochial banter to deflect the shortcomings in his pronouncements"
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Filo
It's alright cocker. I don't do smilies, but if I did, there would have been an ironic one at the end of my response to you.
Careful now:
"Strangely, when you contest any of his profound proclamations he rails and reverts to parochial banter to deflect the shortcomings in his pronouncements"
I think yer man has trouble differentiating between railing/deflection of shortcomings and healthy self-deprecation. I'll make it more obvious in future. I'm actually very, very good at self deprecation, even if I do say so myself.
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Filo.
Aye. What do I know.
TRB
That was kind of the point. It was never about predicting WHO would survive or go down. It was about the statistical improbability that so many teams would hit form as to lead to the survival target being 48-50. The whole point I've been making was not to get het up about team A hitting form, because it is typically balanced by Team B losing form.
Unfortunately, we've ended up being Team B. Doesn't change the basic analysis though.
"It was never about WHO would survive or go down"!
Come on BST, enough now.
I admire your continued 'optimism', but your constant regailing against anyone who suggested (especially after the Birmingham debacle) that the likelihood was our survival in this division would depend on others & your 'reliance' on your stats to prove 'on current forms' we were the team most likely to stay up, all got a tad tedious & blinkered.
I am het up that Teams A (Millwall & Blackpool) can go away & get results against QPR & Wigan while Team B (Us) 'throw away' points at home in games where we continue to shoot ourselves in the foot by seemingly making the same errors on the pitch, annoying almost 'schoolboy' errors, which have left us in a situation where (& I bite my tongue so as not to repeat my earlier threads) we pray Wigan beat Birmingham tonight to give us any hope of survival when Saturday comes & even then our best hope of survival lies not with a result against Leicester (let's get a grip & be sensible here) but with Bolton beating the boys from the Black Country again.
"...we've ended up being Team B. Doesn't change the basic analysis though."
Three cheers for your analysis?
As I said, I admire your optimism & I know all those stats were aimed at keeping 'chins up' in the end they've proved to be just what they always were, meaningless.
So please don't tell us the analysis remains 'sound' because you now recognise actually we've been Team B for some time now.
You can't have your cake & eat it.
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Colin C
You've mis-read me if you think I've been using any reliance on stats to show that we were the most likley team to stay up. I didn't and I'm sorry if that wasn't clear. I used the stats to predict what was the likely target points required to stay up, not WHO would stay up. I used my opinion to state WHO I thought would stay up.
I'll freely admit, at the start of April, I didn't see any circumstances in which we wouldn't get to a target of 45 points. I didn't see us collapsing into what now looks like equalling our worst run of form over 7 matches since Weaver was in charge. But that is a different issue. That's my opinion failing - I'm as fallible as anyone on opinion and worse than most. But it's not valid to claim that because I appear to have made a wrong value judgement, then the whole numbers-based prediction was wrong.
PS: The stats WEREN'T aimed at "keeping our chins up". They were aimed at dispassionately predicting how many points we'd need to stay up. Nothing more, nothing less. My conclusions, based on those numbers may have been aimed at keeping our chins up, but that's a different thing. One looks like being spot-on right. The other looks like a mistake.
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BST
Your analysis back then was right, who would have thought we would run straight into such poor form? I certainly thought we'd pick up a win somewhere but then injuries have taken their toll.
That Holloway would have a transformative effect on Millwall was perhaps more predictable, as was Charlton pulling away. Birmingham and Blackpool haven't really improved.
It's a funny old game as someone said once.
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I certainly thought we'd pick up a win somewhere but then injuries have taken their toll.
Was it just the injuries, or was it our failure to come up with a plan to deal with them? Or with one injury in particular?
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TRB
Counterfactual thought experiment.
We didn't play Wellens against Bolton. We grubbed a point (or maybe even lost) in that match. Wellens was fully fit for the final 4 games of the season.
Likely to be a better scenario than what actually transpired?
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I think BST was using all the right teams, but not necessarily in the right order.
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I think BST was using all the right teams, but not necessarily in the right order.
See my post at 08:54.
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TRB
Counterfactual thought experiment.
We didn't play Wellens against Bolton. We grubbed a point (or maybe even lost) in that match. Wellens was fully fit for the final 4 games of the season.
Likely to be a better scenario than what actually transpired?
I have to say I was thinking more of whether we could set up the team to cope with the absence of Wellens.
The idea that the Keegan/ Furman combination can provide us with an effective midfield has surely been tested to destruction now. I'm not sure we'd have done any better had Furman started the game against Bolton. However, if we'd been prepared to sacrifice a striker for an extra body in midfield...
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TRB
It worked perfectly well in the first half of the Reading game. But I agree that losing Wellens has been crucial. As I've said elasewhere, if we hadn't had to have a conveyor belt of defenders coming in to replace the ones being injured, I suspect that we could have added a bit more quality or cover in central midfield.
I know where you're coming from on the sacrificing a striker idea. Problem is, if you sacrificed Brown, with Sharp in his current mood, we'd never hold the ball up front. And if you sacrificed Sharp, we have no player who could act as a link to an isolated Brown (Forrester could have done it had he been fit I guess). It's a shite of a problem.
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I think BST was using all the right teams, but not necessarily in the right order.
See my post at 08:54.
Billy, your 08.54 post was my inspiration. I thought it would be funny to quote Eric Morcambe.
My mistake.
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Belton
No miatake. I chuckled. Then I metaphorically grabbed you by the lapels.
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I certainly thought we'd pick up a win somewhere but then injuries have taken their toll.
Was it just the injuries, or was it our failure to come up with a plan to deal with them? Or with one injury in particular?
For the most part we have missed Wellens but throughout the same period we haven't seen Husband and little of Duffy. Both are players I would argue, who bring more creativity and little more attacking bite to the side.
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Fed the fixtures of the bottom 7 clubs in to Squeekybumtime.com and here's the scenario coming in to the last game.
2 teams will have been relegated before last day fixtures being on 37 & 40 points after game 45.
3 teams will battle it out on the last day for the final relegation spot and will be on 43, 44 & 46 points respectively after game 45.
2 teams will be safe on 47 & 48 points after 45 games
Squeekybumtime.com says the 5 teams at risk are:- Barnsley, Millwall, Blackpool, Yeovil & Birmingham.
Well Squeekybumtime.com almost had it bang on in terms of the points tally. Pity it got one major prediction wrong with one of the names of the teams excluded from the 'at risk' list. Bloody us.
I'm withdrawing my subscription!!