Final table based on form

[BillyStubbsTears]

Update after tonight's games.

Final table based on last 8 form

Donny 48 points
Birmingham 46
Charlton 45
Blackpool 44
Yeovil 43
Barnsley 40
Millwall 40


Based on last 5 match form
Charlton 53
Donny 51
Birmingham 45
Blackpool 44
Barnsley 42
Millwall 40
Yeovil 40

Still looking like 43-44 points will be the safety target.

[DonnyBazR0ver]

I think we should be capable of 4 wins and 2 draws so 51 points it is.

[RedJ]

Bottom three starting to look a little nailed on now, to me anyway.

[BillyStubbsTears]

RedJ

Not entirely sure I agree. Charlton have had a good 4-5 games and that skews their predicted position. Whether they can keep that up over 13 games in the next 6.5 weeks is another matter.

Also, Blackpool are teetering and have been doing for months. It's perfectly possible to imagine them dropping into the bottom 3. And Yeovil continue to keep up form that is way better than their season average. I keep expecting them to slip up and drop off again, but they are looking capable of hitting 42-43-ish points based on the form prediction. And then, who knows. One more spawny win from somewhere and they are on 45-46 points and near enough safe.

I'd say the bottom three look favourites, with Blackpool next, Charlton and Brum outside bets and us needing seriously bad form to drop back into it.

[ravenrover]

I see Liam Holden has come up with some statistics on points and current form/trends etc. Wonder where he got that from?

[BillyStubbsTears]

Update for Liam Hoden
Based on last 8 match form
Donny 52 points
Blackpool 50
Charlton 44
Birmingham 42
Yeovil 42
Millwall 39
Barnsley 38


Based on last 5 match form
Donny 58
Blackpool 52
Charlton 44
Millwall 40
Yeovil 40
Birmingham 39
Barnsley 35

I'll stick with 43-44 points being the target for safety. Even that might be a touch on the high side. Looks highly unrealistic now that it'll be as high as 48.

[robchester]

I can't see us needing more that 42

[The Red Baron]

Here's Mr Hoden's rather tortuous predictions:

http://www.doncasterfreepress.co.uk/sport/doncaster-rovers/doncaster-rovers-brown-chasing-magic-50-but-far-fewer-points-should-be-required-for-survival-1-6518017

He basically takes up a lot of column inches to arrive at the same conclusions as BST!

[BillyStubbsTears]

Update after last night's matches

Based on last 8 match form
Donny 51 points
Charlton 50
Blackpool 48
Birmingham 47
Yeovil 42
Barnsley 42
Millwall 37


Based on last 5 match form
Donny 56
Charlton 53
Blackpool 51
Birmingham 46
Barnsley 43
Millwall 38
Yeovil 37


As you were chaps.

[RedRover45]

It seems to be becoming quite consistently Barnsley, Yeovil and Millwall. Methinks the fat lady is gargling offstage at the moment ready to make her bow.

[Filo]

Yeovil v Barnsley on Saturday, a draw would be crap for both of them, a defeat would virtually condemn them, either way at least one of those is going to face a monumental task after Saturday

[BillyStubbsTears]

It seems to be becoming quite consistently Barnsley, Yeovil and Millwall. Methinks the fat lady is gargling offstage at the moment ready to make her bow.

Exactly.

Some here get an arsequake when one of those sides gets an exceptional result. But generally, that coincides with another one getting a couple of poor results.

For any of the bottom three to get to 47-8 points now, they are going to consistently need play-off form for the last 8-9 games (15-16 points from 8-9 games).

None of them has had a run like that all season. None of them are remotely in that form at the moment.

Yeovil's best run this season has been 11 points from 8 games. Repeating that would give them 43

Barns key's best run has been 12 points from 9 games. Repeat would give them 44.

Millwall's was 12 from 8 - 44 points.

So, unless one of the bottom 3 suddenly hits a run that is 30% better than anything they've managed all season, 48 points is not going to be the safety target.

In a nutshell, I'm relaxed about the odd surprise results like Barnsley's and Yeovil's last night. If they are going to really push us, they need surprise results like that pretty much every game from now on.

For us, a point on Saturday and four points from the following 2 home games and we're just about home and hosed with 5 games left to play.

[DonnyBazR0ver]

48 points has to be our target. Don't want to be on 45 going to last game. Suspect there will be teams on 42 to 45 going to last game ane our GD will matter.

[Al4475]

I have a sneaky feeling yeovil will stay up - not really sure why!

[BigColSutherland]

I'd like them to stay up as I don't see them keeping hold of Miiller next year so I'd expect them to be baggng one of the relegation spots.

[BillyStubbsTears]

Next 3 games are crucial for Yeovil.
Barnsley (H)
Blackpool (A)
Charlton (A)

If Yeovil can get 6-7 points from those 3, they have a chance. That's put them on 38-39 points with a tough but not impossible last 5 matches to come (Bournemouth, Blackburn, Huddersfield, Brighton, Middsleboro).

Course if they DO get 6-7 points from those 3, by definition they are taking points from other strugglers, so that's not necessarily a bad outcome for us.

[BigColSutherland]

Enough of all this Billy - just tell me here and now who is going down. If it's us, I can take it. I just haven't the patience to wait another 4 or 5 weeks to find out.

[BillyStubbsTears]

Just looked Millwall's fixtures. Oh dear.

3 games against play-off contenders (QPR, Wigan, Forest)

3 against solid top half sides (Blackburn, Bournemouth, Watford).

2 matches against decent form bottom half sides. (us, Middlesboro).EDIT: I was looking at the wrong data for Boro. They are actually in poor form. Still better than Millwall mind.

No wonder the longest odds you can get on them to go down are 1/6.

[Filo]

Just looked Millwall's fixtures. Oh dear.

3 games against play-off contenders (QPR, Wigan, Forest)

3 against solid top half sides (Blackburn, Bournemouth, Watford).

2 matches against decent form bottom half sides. (usMiddlesboro).

No wonder the longest odds you can get on them to go down are 1/6.

Are we playing them yet again this season?

[pib]

Just looked Millwall's fixtures. Oh dear.

3 games against play-off contenders (QPR, Wigan, Forest)

3 against solid top half sides (Blackburn, Bournemouth, Watford).

2 matches against decent form bottom half sides. (usMiddlesboro).

No wonder the longest odds you can get on them to go down are 1/6.

Are we playing them yet again this season?

Yes. We've only played Millwall once.

[ravenrover]

BST do your calculations take into account the number of games that the bottom 5/6 have to play against each other or is it just purely on current form

[Filo]

Just looked Millwall's fixtures. Oh dear.

3 games against play-off contenders (QPR, Wigan, Forest)

3 against solid top half sides (Blackburn, Bournemouth, Watford).

2 matches against decent form bottom half sides. (usMiddlesboro).

No wonder the longest odds you can get on them to go down are 1/6.

Are we playing them yet again this season?

Yes. We've only played Millwall once.

Ooops, that'll teach me to read things properly, I could have swore it said Charlton

[BillyStubbsTears]

BST do your calculations take into account the number of games that the bottom 5/6 have to play against each other or is it just purely on current form

Purely on current form.

[wilts rover]

Yeovil have their next three games against Barnsley, Blackpool and Charlton. Win all those and they have 41 points. So if they could then manage a win and a couple of draws from their other 5 matches they will finish on 46. Have a look at Blackpool and Birmingham's fixtures, where will they pick up the 6 and 7 points needed to reach 47? Blackpool have 4 of the top 6 yet to play. Birmingham have only beaten teams in the bottom 5 this year.

[River Don]

Yeovil winning three on the trot, is a very big ask, especially since they are against sides also scrapping at the foot of the table.

[DonnyBazR0ver]

From here every tackle, every shot, header, point should be celebrated. Every game played as if it's the last. No room for caution and fear.

[BillyStubbsTears]

Yeovil winning three on the trot, is a very big ask, especially since they are against sides also scrapping at the foot of the table.

RD/Wilts

This shows just what a task the bottom three have.

Wilts. What you are saying is that IF Yeovil can win three on the bounce for the first time this season, and then follow that up by losing only 2 of their last 5, they'll reach 46 points.

That would be by a long way their best run of the season.

We on the the hand, can reach 46 points by simply beating Birmingham and Bolton at home.

[JonWallsend]

Rather like when a side is batting in cricket, in order to assess how good the score is, there's that school of thought that says add 2 nominal wickets and look it at then. I do a similar thing with Rovers.

Add one win to our tally and give those chasing us a loss, which is entirely reasonable from the remaining games. It's purely for my own benefit and things look a lot brighter when you think 11 points clear and 7 games left.

Don't do the reverse calculations, it just makes you nervous!

[The Red Baron]

Matches involving two of the current bottom seven:

29/03/14. Yeovil v Barnsley
05/04/14. Blackpool v Yeovil: Rovers v Birmingham
08/04/14. Charlton v Yeovil
15/04/14. Charlton v Barnsley.
21/04/14. Millwall v Rovers.
03/05/14. Blackpool v Charlton.

[wilts rover]

Correct BST. I dont think we have anything to worry about - but I do think Blackpool and Birmingham have. I am not so sure that the bottom three are the certainty that others - and the stats - seem to think.