Ukraine

[River Don]

Filo

The people of Gibraltar wish to remain British.

It's a messy situation but it looks like a large majority in Crimea want to maintain links to Russia. That and Crimea hosts an enormous Russian military facility.

[BigColSutherland]

Comparing Gibraltar to Crimea is a terrible analogy.

[Filo]

Filo

The people of Gibraltar wish to remain British.

It's a messy situation but it looks like a large majority in Crimea want to maintain links to Russia. That and Crimea hosts an enormous Russian military facility.

So the obvious answer is to do what we are doing with Scotland and let the people of Crimea decide in a democratic way and hold a referendum, are the Russians afraid that the result won't be what they want?

And while we are at it, all nations should threaten a boycott of the 2018 World cup

[Filo]

Comparing Gibraltar to Crimea is a terrible analogy.

You're missing my point, both regions were ceded via treaty's, and as such Russia has has violated the treaty and International law with an act of aggression

[BigColSutherland]

I don't think Britain or America, or indeed most of the West, are in any position to lecture people on breaking international law.

[Filo]

I don't think Britain or America, or indeed most of the West, are in any position to lecture people on breaking international law.

And like I said earlier in the thread, Russia can't oppose intervention in Syria on one hand and then in the other hand it rides roughshod straight into another sovereign state

[River Don]

Filo

The people of Gibraltar wish to remain British.

It's a messy situation but it looks like a large majority in Crimea want to maintain links to Russia. That and Crimea hosts an enormous Russian military facility.

So the obvious answer is to do what we are doing with Scotland and let the people of Crimea decide in a democratic way and hold a referendum, are the Russians afraid that the result won't be what they want?

And while we are at it, all nations should threaten a boycott of the 2018 World cup

They've hastily arranged a referendum for sometime in March.

[BigColSutherland]

Russia can do what it likes. Countries in the West do, Israel has been doing it for as long as it's been around. There'll be a lot of rhetoric spoken, but really, what are the West going to do if Russia decides on a course of action they don't like?

[wilts rover]

Intersting that people have brought up China and what they might do - is this now the time to mention Tibet?

[Boomstick]

I don't think Britain or America, or indeed most of the West, are in any position to lecture people on breaking international law.

EXACTLY, America condemning Russia for invading Ukraine is like O.J Simpson condemning Oscar Pistorius.

[moses]

As ever, Paul Mason has the best strategic view.

http://blogs.channel4.com/paul-mason-blog/russian-invasion-ukraine-push-west-economic-war/441

(Sarcasm alert) Not Sarah Palin's analysis then:

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2571147/Sarah-Palin-hits-high-brow-critics-mocked-2008-predicting-Russias-invasion-Ukraine.html

[RobTheRover]

Looks like Platini has splinters in his arse.

http://edition.cnn.com/2014/03/06/sport/platini-paralympic-boycott-ukraine/

[RedRover45]

Spain believe Gibraltar is a region of Spain, but they have n't sent Spanish troops to roam the streets of Gibraltar. Like Gibraltar was ceded to the British by the signing of a treaty, Crimea was ceded to Ukraine by the signing of a treaty. Russia have now clearly violated that treaty and international law, Europe and it's allies now need to stand firm in the face of Russian aggression!

Perhaps Spain haven't got the b*llocks to try and take Gibraltar by force. They are scared of a British military reaction. They saw what happened in the Falklands, and also how Sir Franny Drake kicked their sorry arses....

[hoolahoop]

This situation can'tbe controlled now. Unfortunately possession is 9/10ths of the law and Russian/Russian backed and other militia and mercenarieswill not let this go now .
The West has shown that it's weaknesses over resources  (especially within the EU ) cannot be overcome and for the moment Putin has all the Aces. Our over reliance on Soviet resources has tilted the balance of power quite firmly over to the East.
Hang onto your seats this could become a very costly and dangerous ride for those in the West who have decided to placate Putin. Talk of sanctions will not worry this man however hard they hit his countrymen as he and his cronies will still call the shots whilst sat in the lap of luxury.

[IC1967]

I don't know what all the fuss is about.

It's very simple to sort out. Let Russia have Crimea back and let Ukraine go it's own way and become part of the EU if it wants to. Anyone that doesn't like this solution that is living in Ukraine or Crimea should be paid a resettlement sum and they can go and live in either Crimea or Ukraine (or Russia).

If we don't arrange this settlement, then Russia is going to take Crimea by force anyway and this will cause other monumental problems. Far better to nip the problem in the bud before it escalates out of control. 

[BillyStubbsTears]

What an American commentator makes of the UK's position regarding Ukraine. Hard to argue with it, given the spineless approach of the UK.
http://mobile.nytimes.com/2014/03/08/opinion/londons-laundry-business.html?smid=tw-share&_r=4&referrer=

[afro goal machine]

I don't know what all the fuss is about.

It's very simple to sort out. Let Russia have Crimea back and let Ukraine go it's own way and become part of the EU if it wants to. Anyone that doesn't like this solution that is living in Ukraine or Crimea should be paid a resettlement sum and they can go and live in either Crimea or Ukraine (or Russia).

If we don't arrange this settlement, then Russia is going to take Crimea by force anyway and this will cause other monumental problems. Far better to nip the problem in the bud before it escalates out of control. 

maybe be you could get yourself over their and punch Putin really hard in the face ?

[RedJ]

I'd like to see that...

[The Red Baron]

What an American commentator makes of the UK's position regarding Ukraine. Hard to argue with it, given the spineless approach of the UK.
http://mobile.nytimes.com/2014/03/08/opinion/londons-laundry-business.html?smid=tw-share&_r=4&referrer=

I think it's a load of simplistic tosh. Anyway, what have we had from the Americans? Lots of warm words and little action.

What makes me laugh is that he seems to hold Tony Blair responsible for the UK's weakness. Say what you like about him (and I'm not really a fan) but if Blair had been PM we'd have been taking military action in Syria and we (and the Americans) would have shown Putin that we meant business. He calculated that the west (not just the UK) is collectively too weak to stand up to Russian aggression. There are a lot of factors behind that- not just that London is full of wealthy Russians.

[BigColSutherland]

Realistically, what can the West do? The Germans would never agree to serious sanctions, no one would go for a military solution, so where does that leave us?

[BillyStubbsTears]

Russia is an oligarchy. We could, if we wished, make things very difficult for the oligarchs. That is a way of generating pressure on Putin - possibly the one and only way of putting pressure on him. He knows that we are not going to take military action (the idea is laughable, and the ridiculous comments that I heard from one Tory MP, that if Miliband hadn't voted against lobbing a dozen cruise missiles into Damascus, Putin would have thought twice about Crimea is risible gutter politics of the worst kind.)

General economic sanctions that hurt the Russian population would not make a jot of difference. But freezing the gangsters' accounts in London and refusing to give them visas would heap pressure on Putin. But we won't do it (not a party political point - I doubt any UK Govt would do it). Because, as that article says, one of our USPs as a country these days is that we will take and invest any illegal money, stolen from any benighted people anywhere in the world, so long as the city spivs can make their millions.

This is where glorious empires finally end up. Grubbing about to service the barbarians.

[wilts rover]

It's anybody's guess really why we wont apply serious sanctions...... or maybe not:

 However, sanctions on Russia could have a significant impact, experts said. “If Russia and Ukraine go to war, the consequences for the EU could be severe,” Joe Conlan at energy analysts Inenco said.

“If the conflict persists, then sanctions are likely to be placed on Russia. These sanctions could include sanctions on gas exports, which would place considerable strain on the UK, France and Germany.”

Mr Conlan said that while the UK does not directly import gas from Russia, it does receive “secondary imports, such as Russian exports of gas to Germany, and we import via pipelines from Belgium and Holland”.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/newsbysector/energy/oilandgas/10674275/Ukraine-gas-and-oil-prices-rise-amid-fears-of-supply-disruption.html

[hoolahoop]

It just shows how seriously weak the West is in this situation. How the hell do we stop Putin now doing what he wants when the Europeans have no sanctions of note they either can or don't wish to apply.
This is a serious situation............

[Filo]

It's obvious that the powers that be in Ukraine right now want closer ties with the West, it would really piss the Russians off if there was a Nato controlled air base in Ukraine right on their doorstep, it might make them think twice before they try to annex more of the region

[hoolahoop]

It's obvious that the powers that be in Ukraine right now want closer ties with the West, it would really piss the Russians off if there was a Nato controlled air base in Ukraine right on their doorstep, it might make them think twice before they try to annex more of the region

Thought the same myself with a multinational force of elite troops going in as well "at Ukraine's request" very similar to the alleged request from the bandit Crimean request to the Russians.
Put the most sophisticated defence systems in place and the combined special forces from the NATO , EU countries and he would back off. Aircraft and special forces could be there in less than 72 hours.
This and vastly enhanced restrictions on the oligarths would make Putin and those around him think again. This must happen before the Russians have more time to drive a wedge between the Ukrainian and Russian speaking communities in Ukraine.
That border must be secured by a mix of UN, EU and NATO forces pronto or say goodbye to Ukraine, Moldova and possibly the Baltic States.
Possibly control of the governments of Poland, Romania, Hungary and other states previously controlled by the old Soviet Union may be at risk too.

Anyone seeking to legitimise Putin's position on Ukraine should only compare it with our possible retaking of Australia and New Zealand on the basis that they are "English speaking" and are at a supposed risk. The notion is laughable I know but it is the Russian way.
Some folk say that the West have done similar things in regard to International law but don't ever cite any recent examples of where the West have annexed another country's territory in such a way.
I know that China has with Tibet and Mongolia (for all intents and purposes) but the West ?
Indeed they have interfered and intervened as have both  Russia and China but never annexed. Indeed China's meddling in Africa for economic reasons probably lead them to abstaining in the recent UN vote........why put your own country under scrutiny too would be their reasoning I would suggest.
Finally appeasement never works with strong men like any other bully Russia needs to know the West and it's allies mean concerted business both economically and militarily NOW.

[IC1967]

The Russians have gone about it the wrong way and they should be told this in the strongest possible terms (behind closed doors). However, the vast majority of people in Crimea want to be part of Russia again. If this is what they want they now have it. This is not going to change. So it is now time to forget about Crimea and concentrate on what is going to happen in Ukraine.

Half of Ukraine wants to be part of the EU and the other half want closer ties with Russia. The best solution is to split the country in two. Half can develop links with Russia and the other half can move towards the EU. People can relocate to whichever part of the country suits their political views the best. The West should be trying to sort this out rather than constantly slagging off Russia in public.

If this doesn't happen there is very likely to be a civil war, then who knows what will happen next.

[hoolahoop]

Just two points here reference the Russian propaganda in this:-
1) Only  58% of the 'Russian speaking' population could never supply a 97% Yes vote especially when many of these younger one's in interviews felt and wanted to be Ukrainian still..........42% of the non-Russian speaking wouldn't have voted at all. The chance of getting a 50% vote would have been strange let alone a 97% vote!!!
2) If you look at the demographics of Ukraine... There is NOT anywhere near a 50/50 split between those that speak the mother tongue and Russian. 'Russian majority speaking' areas only occupy c. 25% of the land and or 25% of the total population.
I know this is simplistic but the majority of the population of Crimea are living in a Russian prison not of their choosing and finally splitting up Ukraine would be similar to the way that we handled the split of India ......it would be a mess and a mess that even Russia should not want.

[RedJ]

Only  58% of the 'Russian speaking' population could never supply a 97% Yes vote especially when many of these younger one's in interviews felt and wanted to be Ukrainian still..........42% of the non-Russian speaking wouldn't have voted at all. The chance of getting a 50% vote would have been strange let alone a 97% vote!!!

Depends on how many voted though, doesn't it?

I haven't seen the news lately, but if hardly any of the Ukrainian speakers voted and nigh on all the Russian speakers did, then that would be possible.

Anschluss, anyone?

[IC1967]

It is a bit too simplistic to assume that only Russian speakers would vote to be with Russia and Ukrainian speakers would vote to be with the West. There's a lot more to it.

If I were Ukrainian I'd much prefer to be with Russia. The only reason some of them want to be with the EU is that they think we'll give them loads of money and they'll become much more prosperous.

They don't realise what a bureaucratic nightmare the EU is and that they would be much better off keeping well away.

Russia is a huge market and is on their doorstep. They'd be crazy not to exploit this to it's full potential.

[RedJ]

It is a bit too simplistic to assume that only Russian speakers would vote to be with Russia and Ukrainian speakers would vote to be with the West. There's a lot more to it.

If I were Ukrainian I'd much prefer to be with Russia. The only reason some of them want to be with the EU is that they think we'll give them loads of money and they'll become much more prosperous.

They don't realise what a bureaucratic nightmare the EU is and that they would be much better off keeping well away.

Russia is a huge market and is on their doorstep. They'd be crazy not to exploit this to it's full potential.

I'm not just assuming it - I don't think that, it's just a possible explanation.

Besides, there's more to life than a "market"...