BREXIT

[Nudga]

Ive just spent two hours reading about the pros and cons of in/out and I am still non the wiser.
I've listened to top figure heads from NHS, Bank of England etc saying stay but can't work out if they've been told to say stay by their paymasters.
And then listened to the vote leave experts but they just come across as ntionalistic idiots.
Help!

[big fat yorkshire pudding]

Campaigning on this is terrible.  I can see pros and cons to either so for me it's a choice of which I feel most strongly about.  I expect I'll vote leave but would there be a huge amount in it for me? Probably not.

[Muttley]

Campaigning on this is terrible.  I can see pros and cons to either so for me it's a choice of which I feel most strongly about.  I expect I'll vote leave but would there be a huge amount in it for me? Probably not.

This is the trouble with a lot of voters - they vote for "me" when what they ought to be doing is voting for "us", for the children, for the less advantaged, for society as a whole.

[The Red Baron]

I'm in the Leave camp, but I found myself in agreement with Nicola Sturgeon yesterday. The idea that you should try to persuade floating voters by trying to scare the Bejaysus out of them is surely counter-productive.

Also I take George Osborne's "Treasury Forecasts" with a huge pinch of salt. Not necessarily because they might be wrong, but because of what Osborne himself did. He created the Office for Budget Responsibility in 2010 because he claimed Treasury forecasts were not only inaccurate but open to manipulation by ministers! Go figure!

[Filo]

Well I'm in the leave camp and all this doom and gloom propaganda from the stayers, especially Cameron and his arse licker Osbourne is only strengthening my resolve, aparently after the referendum date if we vote to leave the world will end! 😀

[Muttley]

What's the opposite of scaremongering? False hope-mongering?

If Boris Johnson, Nigel Farage, Michael Gove and Ian Duncan Smith want us to leave then I'm definitely in the REMAIN camp.

Can you imagine living in a country governed by that set of muppets?

[The Red Baron]

What's the opposite of scaremongering? False hope-mongering?

If Boris Johnson, Nigel Farage, Michael Gove and Ian Duncan Smith want us to leave then I'm definitely in the REMAIN camp.

Can you imagine living in a country governed by that set of muppets?

If you decide which side to vote for based on the personalities involved then you may repeat the errors of 1975. A No campaign lead by the likes of Enoch Powell and Tony Benn didn't appeal to middle of the road voters, but if you look back at what they said about the EEC, almost everything has come true.

[BillyStubbsTears]

TRB

Then don't listen to the Treasury predictions. Listen to the predictions of pretty much every senior economics academic in the world. They are all saying the same thing.

[Filo]

What's the opposite of scaremongering? False hope-mongering?

If Boris Johnson, Nigel Farage, Michael Gove and Ian Duncan Smith want us to leave then I'm definitely in the REMAIN camp.

Can you imagine living in a country governed by that set of muppets?

Does a leave vote automattically install those people in Government?😳😳😳

[Muttley]

What's the opposite of scaremongering? False hope-mongering?

If Boris Johnson, Nigel Farage, Michael Gove and Ian Duncan Smith want us to leave then I'm definitely in the REMAIN camp.

Can you imagine living in a country governed by that set of muppets?

If you decide which side to vote for based on the personalities involved then you may repeat the errors of 1975. A No campaign lead by the likes of Enoch Powell and Tony Benn didn't appeal to middle of the road voters, but if you look back at what they said about the EEC, almost everything has come true.

I'm not basing my decision on personalities, but the possibility of a UK government made up of a cabal that are committed to dismantling the welfare state and NHS confirms that the decision I have made based on the likelihood of a negative impact on the UK economy in, at least, the short/medium term if we left the EU.

[Muttley]

What's the opposite of scaremongering? False hope-mongering?

If Boris Johnson, Nigel Farage, Michael Gove and Ian Duncan Smith want us to leave then I'm definitely in the REMAIN camp.

Can you imagine living in a country governed by that set of muppets?

Does a leave vote automattically install those people in Government?😳😳😳

Not automatically, but it is widely accepted that Cameron is toast in the event of a Leave vote (or maybe even a narrow Remain vote) and that Johnson having led a successful Leave campaign would be selected by the Tory party to be its leader (which has always been his endgame anyway, his position on the EU was only deciced once he knew which way Cameron was leaning).

I would also expect him to award Farage with some government position, plus all the pro-Leave Tory cabinet members would be a shoe-in.

Frightening.

[The Red Baron]

TRB

Then don't listen to the Treasury predictions. Listen to the predictions of pretty much every senior economics academic in the world. They are all saying the same thing.

I wonder how many of those Economists thought the Single Currency was a good idea and/ or that it would be damaging to the UK if we didn't join it?

[Dutch Uncle]

Can anyone explain to me why the campaign is so long? Did Cameron want it that way, or is there some legislation that says certain voting issues need a minimum length of time for campaigning?

For me the vote should have been in late April or early May.  The scaremongering and misinformation on both sides is horrific and goes on and on.
 
For me financial aspects (which are all based on wild predicting of consequences of an event which has had no previous parallel), although important, are not the main issue.

[The Red Baron]

What's the opposite of scaremongering? False hope-mongering?

If Boris Johnson, Nigel Farage, Michael Gove and Ian Duncan Smith want us to leave then I'm definitely in the REMAIN camp.

Can you imagine living in a country governed by that set of muppets?

Does a leave vote automattically install those people in Government?😳😳😳

Not automatically, but it is widely accepted that Cameron is toast in the event of a Leave vote (or maybe even a narrow Remain vote) and that Johnson having led a successful Leave campaign would be selected by the Tory party to be its leader (which has always been his endgame anyway, his position on the EU was only deciced once he knew which way Cameron was leaning).

I would also expect him to award Farage with some government position, plus all the pro-Leave Tory cabinet members would be a shoe-in.

Frightening.

Whatever the result of the referendum (my money's on a narrow Remain) I think you will see a fundamental realignment of British politics. The sort of thing not seen since the SDP split.

The Tories are too deeply divided over Europe, and the nature of the Remain campaign will only serve to deepen those splits. Labour is pretty united on Europe, at least as far as MPs are concerned, but deeply divided over just about everything else.

[The Red Baron]

Can anyone explain to me why the campaign is so long? Did Cameron want it that way, or is there some legislation that says certain voting issues need a minimum length of time for campaigning?

For me the vote should have been in late April or early May.  The scaremongering and misinformation on both sides is horrific and goes on and on.
 
For me financial aspects (which are all based on wild predicting of consequences of an event which has had no previous parallel), although important, are not the main issue.

The 1975 referendum was much shorter. Royal Assent was given to the Bill in early May and the referendum was held on 5th June.

I think the complication here was the Local Elections. The Electoral Commission ruled (correctly, IMO) that the referendum could not be held at the same time as these. The timescales were also affected by the need to designate an official Leave campaign.

In terms of its most recent UK parallel, the Scottish Independence referendum, the campaign is actually quite short. The SNP demanded a long campaign because they thought it would build momentum. Being cynical, I think they hoped if it ran long enough then the wind would turn in their favour eventually!

[Dutch Uncle]

Thanks TRB. I guess it is just circumstances then.

[rtid88]

I can't believe we have got another month of listening to this constant drivel! The fact is no one has got the foggiest what will happen if we vote to leave.

The one thing I know is that I simply don't trust this Tory Government in its current state with the current budget but to have Johnson, Gove & IDS in charge with even more public resources and more power and without any say from the EU in terms of how certain aspects of that money is spent this country would be screwed once and for all!!

[BillyStubbsTears]

TRB

Then don't listen to the Treasury predictions. Listen to the predictions of pretty much every senior economics academic in the world. They are all saying the same thing.

I wonder how many of those Economists thought the Single Currency was a good idea and/ or that it would be damaging to the UK if we didn't join it?

No need to wonder TRB. There was a poll in 1999 on that very theme.

http://www.economist.com/node/199382

Two-thirds of the economists polled thought it would be broadly in the UK's interests to join the Euro. That fact has been pushed hard by the Leave camp over the past week in a, frankly, disgraceful effort to misinform. Because they cannot find any serious economists to support Leave, they are playing the "Economists!?! Hah! They are ALWAYS wrong" card. That is deeply mendacious and is designed to bring the debate down as low as possible. Because Leave want the decision to be a gut one, not an intellectual one.

Right. Back to the 1999 poll.

As the Economist article says, the headline numbers mean very little. "A simple tally of ayes and noes, however, does not tell you very much. Some thought that the arguments on one side were very much stronger than on the other. Others said that their judgment was finely balanced. (Indeed, two respondents split their votes: one came down 0.7-0.3 in favour, the other 0.6-0.4 against.) And more important than the crude totals are the arguments on either side. We interviewed economists on both sides of the question, to get a sense of the debate."

And that is the point. There were very strong arguments in both directions on the Euro question. It was not by any means a clear-cut decision. It was a balanced judgement.

There is actually a strong argument that, had the UK joined the Euro, and had the UK been more forceful in pushing a Keynesian line, rather than the madness of German OrdoLiberalism, the EuroZone could well have stood the storm of 2008-11 much better than it did. But that is in the realms of counterfactual history.

The key point is that the Euro issue was a genuinely nuanced debate amongst economists, with serious debate and discussion going on, and even individuals themselves being uncertain. The EU leave/stay issue is nothing like that. There is barely a serious economist in the country who believes that leaving will be anything other than disastrous.

But the Leave campaign don't want you to hear that. They want you to believe that these guys are Ivory Towers w**kers who are always wrong.

[bobjimwilly]

Those who vote to leave have got to ask themselves, with the billions we will be saving, will this Tory government re-invest it into the projects that were traditionally funded by the EU, or will they keep it to help lower taxes and balance the books?

Think of recent projects in Doncaster, the widening of White Rose Way, Robin Hood Airport link road, Racecourse expansion, Frenchgate Centre expansion - all part-funded by EU structural funds. Would the government have funded these projects?

[BillyStubbsTears]

BJW.

That is an excellent point.

When you hear Johnson, Farage and Gove talking about keeping OUR money instead of giving to the EU, ask yourself who the "we" is that they are referring to. And when you fulminate that "our" money is being used to subsidise the poorer parts of the EU, recall that by the later 1990s, after the carnage of the previous Tory Govt, South Yorkshire was officially one of the poorest parts of the EU, and we had money poured into our region from tax payers across Europe. The earlier of the developments that BJW mentions didn't come out of thin air, and they certainly weren't going to be funded by a Tory Govt.

[Muttley]

And let's not forget exactly how much money we are going to save.

This is how an average year's worth of tax breaks down into government expenditure...if you look carefully you will see that less than 1% goes towards funding the EU

[bobjimwilly]

At least being part of the EU means there will be regional (and Northern!) development, regardless of what the government doesn't want to spend money on! Having bureaucrats in brussel spending money on the UK is not always a bad thing!

[big fat yorkshire pudding]

At least being part of the EU means there will be regional (and Northern!) development, regardless of what the government doesn't want to spend money on! Having bureaucrats in brussel spending money on the UK is not always a bad thing!

How was the new road in Doncaster funded?

[Glyn_Wigley]

Those who vote to leave have got to ask themselves, with the billions we will be saving, will this Tory government re-invest it into the projects that were traditionally funded by the EU, or will they keep it to help lower taxes and balance the books?

Think of recent projects in Doncaster, the widening of White Rose Way, Robin Hood Airport link road, Racecourse expansion, Frenchgate Centre expansion - all part-funded by EU structural funds. Would the government have funded these projects?

Don't forget, that will be after we've spent shedloads of that money on recruiting, training, equipping and housing all the extra Border Control personnel we'll need to control immigration as properly as they say we need to. And how much is policing the seas to keep other countries out of UK fishing waters going to cost as well, have the Brexiters given us any figures for that at all yet..? And how much is administering Customs clearance documentation from an extra 27 countries (inbound and outbound) going to cost, anyone heard any whispers..?

No doubt there's lots of other things we'll suddenly find ourselves having to cough up for once we leave that the Brexiters are keeping schtum about. Things that WILL need to be paid for, not might have to be paid for. If only they would stop slagging off everybody else as scaremongers for long enough to give us some actual details.

[wing commander]

   I've changed my mind on this, initially I was stay in but I will now vote leave,even as a tory (boo,hiss) I've found the stay campaign paticulary terrible..Obamas pre written speech,Osbournes calculations based over a decade on whats best can be described as fag packet predictions when in truth he hasn't had much success on 2 year predictions with hard figures to factor in our current economy,now we have Camerons disgraceful scaremongering comments on anything from world war 3,it helps daish and recession and jobs based on little fact.I'm not saying the out campaign are blameless either though.its been a shocking debate all round..I'ts been hard to find neutral information to base a descision on but those I have read lead me to vote out...
    Like I said I've always been a conservative all my life,this is the first time I've been on the other side of their coin and it's really opened my eyes on how they go about things..If there was a general election tomorrow I honestly couldn't vote for anybody because my views are not represented by any of them anymore...

[Muttley]

At least being part of the EU means there will be regional (and Northern!) development, regardless of what the government doesn't want to spend money on! Having bureaucrats in brussel spending money on the UK is not always a bad thing!

How was the new road in Doncaster funded?

I guess you already know, but if you mean the Great Yorkshire Way, then it was approx two thirds from private enterprise (Peel who own the airport, Verdion who own iPort and a housebuilder) and one third from the Regional Growth Fund (ie central Government) plus tuppence ha'penny from DMBC.

[BillyStubbsTears]

Wing Co

What Leave arguments do you think have convinced you to change your mind?

[rtid88]

   I've changed my mind on this, initially I was stay in but I will now vote leave,even as a tory (boo,hiss) I've found the stay campaign paticulary terrible..Obamas pre written speech,Osbournes calculations based over a decade on whats best can be described as fag packet predictions when in truth he hasn't had much success on 2 year predictions with hard figures to factor in our current economy,now we have Camerons disgraceful scaremongering comments on anything from world war 3,it helps daish and recession and jobs based on little fact.I'm not saying the out campaign are blameless either though.its been a shocking debate all round..I'ts been hard to find neutral information to base a descision on but those I have read lead me to vote out...
    Like I said I've always been a conservative all my life,this is the first time I've been on the other side of their coin and it's really opened my eyes on how they go about things..If there was a general election tomorrow I honestly couldn't vote for anybody because my views are not represented by any of them anymore...

So your simply voting out because you don't like what Gideon and Dave have to say that's a grown up way of using your vote especially when the Leave campaigners are talking just as much drivel with their finger in the air figures!

[big fat yorkshire pudding]

At least being part of the EU means there will be regional (and Northern!) development, regardless of what the government doesn't want to spend money on! Having bureaucrats in brussel spending money on the UK is not always a bad thing!

How was the new road in Doncaster funded?

I guess you already know, but if you mean the Great Yorkshire Way, then it was approx two thirds from private enterprise (Peel who own the airport, Verdion who own iPort and a housebuilder) and one third from the Regional Growth Fund (ie central Government) plus tuppence ha'penny from DMBC.

Exactly.  It's frustrating to hear that the world ends if we leave Europe. Just as much as those saying leaving solves the problems we face. Neither are true.

[BillyStubbsTears]

BFYP

True. But there is no argument on the economic side. There is not a serious economist who doubts that leaving the EU will result in a very serious downturn.

The issue for the Leave side shouldn't be to poo-poo those analyses. It should be to make the case for why that is a price worth paying.

But they are not doing that. There are vague hand waving arguments about how we might be able, magically, to instantly negotiate favourable trade terms with China, India, USA et al. But no depth or firmness to any of these aspirations.

Comes down to two questions for me.

1) Are the rewards of leaving so great that they are worth more than the undoubted self-inflicted recession that will come immediately if we do leave?

2) Given that the entire Leave argument is predicated on a "trust us: it'll be fine" argument, are you REALLY prepared to trust the unsubstantiated beliefs of Gove, Johnson, Grayling, IDS and Farage against pretty much everyone else on the planet?