European election

[albie]

I thought it might be helpful to explain how it works on Thursday:
https://theconversation.com/european-elections-guide-whats-actually-on-the-ballot-paper-116975

Some might not be aware of the differences between the election of MEP's and the UK system for a GE.

I know there is another thread on the "Brexit Deal", but this is different...it is about the process, not about whether you are leave or remain!

[drfchound]

It will probably be the lowest ever turn out for voters.

[Glyn_Wigley]

It will probably be the lowest ever turn out for voters.

I think it'll be one of the higher Euro election turnouts. Not that its a high bar to beat.

[big fat yorkshire pudding]

Crazy result in donny, 45% for Brexit party....

[Dagenham Rover]

I think its more of a case of telling the Government do what you were told rather than party politics

[BillyStubbsTears]

So, the election results have told us what we already knew.

There's a hardcore anti-EU group of 40-45% of the population. That group voted overwhelmingly for (Farage's) UKIP in 2014. They've voted overwhelmingly in similar numbers for (Farage's) BP this week.

That makes sense. Some folk will follow a Fuhrer...sorry...Leader wherever he takes them, because it's easier to give your support to a larger than life personality, than to get down an dirty with the detail of policy.

That much was expected and it happened. No big earthquake there

The really interesting thing is what's happened on the elsewhere.

The Tory and Lab votes have collapsed. Again, as we expected. But look where they have gone. There's been a far bigger increase in the Remain supporting parties' vote share (LD, Green, ChUK, PC, SNP) than there has in the vote share of Brexit + UKIP over UKIP last time.

That's a massive outcome.

The country has shifted strongly towards Remain supporting parties.

[Glyn_Wigley]

I think its more of a case of telling the Government do what you were told rather than party politics

So you tell them what to do by telling them to feck off, do you?  I always thought telling someone to feck off meant you were telling them to feck off.

[BillyStubbsTears]

Crazy result in donny, 45% for Brexit party....

Not sure why that is particularly surprising.

Donny voted hugely for Brexit in 2010. It's not really surprising that a party avowedly supporting Brexit this week picks up 45%.

[Glyn_Wigley]

I thought the Brexit Party were standing for a No Deal Brexit as their only issue? How come as soon as they start winning they want to be included in the negotiations? If they want no deal they wouldn't need to negotiate, they'd just leave...

[BillyStubbsTears]

Ahh Glyn.

That faux naivete!

You know as well as I do, you little tinker, that the true aim of Farage is to shift the Tory party to the Right. And that what he's doing tonight is pivoting and offering an olive branch to Raab and Johnson. (Because one of them will be PM in 6 weeks time.)

He's saying, "You go Hard Right and we'll support you. You cut funding for schools and the NHS, and give us tax cuts, and we'll support you. We've got the power to support you because 45% of folk in Donny voted for us.
"No! I know! I can't believe it either! They must be even f**king thicker than we imagined!"

[albie]

So are we talking about 45% of the votes cast, or 45% of the eligible electorate?
Big difference, and numbers matter!

So if the turnout was, say 35%...then we are talking about 45% of that 35%...or not?

The overall number is not too different from the last EU election.
Higher turnout, nearly all UKIP follows Farrago to Brexit.
Remain vote split between more parties, but also holds up.

As a small part of the EU whole, the real story is probably the breakdown of the trad power blocks, with populism on the rise in some places.

Oh, and the Greens steadily improving across Europe.

[DonnyOsmond]

Remain - 41%
No Deal - 35%
Leave with a deal - 24%

[BillyStubbsTears]

Remain - 41%
No Deal - 35%
Leave with a deal - 24%

That's pretty much my reading of it, other than that the 24% will contain a certain number who would prefer Remain or No Deal, but stuck with the big two through tribal loyalty.

[DonnyOsmond]

Remain - 41%
No Deal - 35%
Leave with a deal - 24%

That's pretty much my reading of it, other than that the 24% will contain a certain number who would prefer Remain or No Deal, but stuck with the big two through tribal loyalty.

Yeah, my girlfriend went Labour and she's pro-remain. The high majority of Labours members are remain so give them to that remain margin and Tories to leave and it's a higher win for remain.

[Boomstick]

So, the election results have told us what we already knew.

There's a hardcore anti-EU group of 40-45% of the population. That group voted overwhelmingly for (Farage's) UKIP in 2014. They've voted overwhelmingly in similar numbers for (Farage's) BP this week.

That makes sense. Some folk will follow a Fuhrer...sorry...Leader wherever he takes them, because it's easier to give your support to a larger than life personality, than to get down an dirty with the detail of policy.

That much was expected and it happened. No big earthquake there

The really interesting thing is what's happened on the elsewhere.

The Tory and Lab votes have collapsed. Again, as we expected. But look where they have gone. There's been a far bigger increase in the Remain supporting parties' vote share (LD, Green, ChUK, PC, SNP) than there has in the vote share of Brexit + UKIP over UKIP last time.

That's a massive outcome.

The country has shifted strongly towards Remain supporting parties.

😂😂😂😂, how's your pint of bitter tasting today? Extra bitter I assume?

Youve belated on about what you think people want for the last two years. YOU COULDN'T HAVE BEEN MORE WRONG.

Not ashamed to admit, I'm feeling a bit smug this morning.

It's probably now time you accepted it for your own mental health. Seriously.

[DonnyOsmond]

So, the election results have told us what we already knew.

There's a hardcore anti-EU group of 40-45% of the population. That group voted overwhelmingly for (Farage's) UKIP in 2014. They've voted overwhelmingly in similar numbers for (Farage's) BP this week.

That makes sense. Some folk will follow a Fuhrer...sorry...Leader wherever he takes them, because it's easier to give your support to a larger than life personality, than to get down an dirty with the detail of policy.

That much was expected and it happened. No big earthquake there

The really interesting thing is what's happened on the elsewhere.

The Tory and Lab votes have collapsed. Again, as we expected. But look where they have gone. There's been a far bigger increase in the Remain supporting parties' vote share (LD, Green, ChUK, PC, SNP) than there has in the vote share of Brexit + UKIP over UKIP last time.

That's a massive outcome.

The country has shifted strongly towards Remain supporting parties.

😂😂😂😂, how's your pint of bitter tasting today? Extra bitter I assume?

Youve belated on about what you think people want for the last two years. YOU COULDN'T HAVE BEEN MORE WRONG.

Not ashamed to admit, I'm feeling a bit smug this morning.

It's probably now time you accepted it for your own mental health. Seriously.

Fair play taking some votes off the Tories after only becoming a party a few week ago but the parties with the ideology you believe in only coming 2nd isn't anything to be smug about. What happened to that 17.4 million?

[Bentley Bullet]

BST. If you genuinely believe Farage is a Fuhrer why aren't you shitting yourself after all the poison you've spread about him?

[wilts rover]

The country has shifted strongly towards Remain supporting parties.

That may be what you want to happen but it's not possible to deduce that from these results.

Turnout was around 37-38% so slightly up on 2014 but 32% of people who voted in 2017 and 34% of people who voted in 2016 didn't vote on Thursday. All you can say about these voters is that around 50% of people who normally vote don't feel strongly one way or the other. Or they would have voted.

Factor in the joint Labour/Cons vote - who again don't feel strongly enough one way or the other - and that's at least 60% of the electorate.

Well done to Brexit Party, Lib Dems & the Greens for getting their message across and voters out - but attempting to interpret this as any more than a protest vote, both ways, is highly disingenuous.

[RobTheRover]

.The reality of it all.....

[BillyStubbsTears]

BS

I appreciate that you do gut instinct and headlines rather than facts, but I'm boring in that I do the facts first, and reach my conclusions after looking at those facts.

So let's have a look at the facts.

Here's the vote share

Hard Brexit supporting parties
BP 31.6
UKIP 3.3

Total 34.9

Remain supporting parties
LD 20.3
Green 12.1
SNP 3.6
PC 1.0
ChUK 3.4

Total 40.4

Then you've got 9.1% Con who would probably break more for Hard Brexit and 14.1% Lab who would probably break more to soft Brexit/Remain.

You see a resounding success for Hard Brexit there? Nope, me neither.

What about the change in vote share from 2014?

Hard Brexit parties
BP +31.6
UKIP -24.2

Net +7.4

Strongly Remain
LD +13.4
Green +4.2
SNP +1.1
PC +0.3
ChUK +3.4

Net +22.4

You see a Hard Brexit wave barrelling over the nation there and sweeping Remain support away? Nope. Me neither.

Last night told us what the polls have been saying for months. Opinions have hardened. Parties that try to ride both horses get hammered. 30-35% of the population do want a Hard Brexit. 40+% want Brexit cancelled.

You go ahead an have your smug warm feeling about the Farageist being the biggest single party, but the actual facts don't support what you want them to. What Farage has actually done is to sweep up those who voted UKIP in 2014 and add about 3% extra on top. Whereas the unambiguously Remain supporting parties have added seven times that amount to their 2014 performance.

[RobTheRover]

Bravo, BST. Exactly how I kind of saw it without the opportunity to pull the figures through. The centrist "see which way the wind blows" of elements of Labour and Conservative have served neither party well. People want a clear message and have told the parties that in no uncertain terms.

[BillyStubbsTears]

Wilts

Yeah. I get it.

Polls can't be trusted to give you a picture of what the country thinks (unless they support Corbyn, in which case they can).

You also can't draw any conclusions from actual elections either.

I see the theme.

[BillyStubbsTears]

Correction to my earlier post in the interest of being fair and truthful.

Wasn't fair to say "What Farage has actually done is to sweep up those who voted UKIP in 2014 and add about 3% extra on top."

That's just comparing BP's result last night to UKIP's in 2014.

What I SHOULD  have done is to compare the combined BP/UKIP result last night to UKIP in 2014. That's 34.9 vs 27.5.

So, the Hard Brexiters swept up all the support from 2014 and added 7.4% on top. Which is about 1/3rd of what the Hard Remainers added to their 2014 performance

Here's the fascinating point for me though.

The Hard Brexit parties added 7.4% to their 2014 performance. Let's assume that All of that came from Hard Brexit supporters who previously voted Tory (that won't be true, because I've no doubt some are ex-Lab supporters, but stick with it - this is just illustrating a point.)

But the Tories are down 14.9% on their 2014 showing.

So, more of the electorate who supported the Tories in 2014 have now gone somewhere else, other than to a Hard Brexit party than the ones who HAVE moved to a Hard Brexit party.

That might be the real big finding of last night.

[Boomstick]

BS

I appreciate that you do gut instinct and headlines rather than facts, but I'm boring in that I do the facts first, and reach my conclusions after looking at those facts.

So let's have a look at the facts.

Here's the vote share

Hard Brexit supporting parties
BP 31.6
UKIP 3.3

Total 34.9

Remain supporting parties
LD 20.3
Green 12.1
SNP 3.6
PC 1.0
ChUK 3.4

Total 40.4

Then you've got 9.1% Con who would probably break more for Hard Brexit and 14.1% Lab who would probably break more to soft Brexit/Remain.

You see a resounding success for Hard Brexit there? Nope, me neither.

What about the change in vote share from 2014?

Hard Brexit parties
BP +31.6
UKIP -24.2

Net +7.4

Strongly Remain
LD +13.4
Green +4.2
SNP +1.1
PC +0.3
ChUK +3.4

Net +22.4

You see a Hard Brexit wave barrelling over the nation there and sweeping Remain support away? Nope. Me neither.

Last night told us what the polls have been saying for months. Opinions have hardened. Parties that try to ride both horses get hammered. 30-35% of the population do want a Hard Brexit. 40+% want Brexit cancelled.

You go ahead an have your smug warm feeling about the Farageist being the biggest single party, but the actual facts don't support what you want them to. What Farage has actually done is to sweep up those who voted UKIP in 2014 and add about 3% extra on top. Whereas the unambiguously Remain supporting parties have added seven times that amount to their 2014 performance.

Wow, think your clutching at straws, still.

Fact is, the brexit party Dominated.
If the majority wanted to remain (which they certainly don't) then the lib dems would have done better, which they didn't.

Here's a point for you, a large majority DO want a hard brexit.
The rest (remain, and deal) can't decide what they want. It's those idiots who have caused this whole mess.

[big fat yorkshire pudding]

So in conclusion, people want to leave but likely with a deal?  Doesn't tell us that much other than the splits are not that unchanged.

I imagine the Tories and labour would both fair better with alternate leaders....

[DonnyOsmond]

BS

I appreciate that you do gut instinct and headlines rather than facts, but I'm boring in that I do the facts first, and reach my conclusions after looking at those facts.

So let's have a look at the facts.

Here's the vote share

Hard Brexit supporting parties
BP 31.6
UKIP 3.3

Total 34.9

Remain supporting parties
LD 20.3
Green 12.1
SNP 3.6
PC 1.0
ChUK 3.4

Total 40.4

Then you've got 9.1% Con who would probably break more for Hard Brexit and 14.1% Lab who would probably break more to soft Brexit/Remain.

You see a resounding success for Hard Brexit there? Nope, me neither.

What about the change in vote share from 2014?

Hard Brexit parties
BP +31.6
UKIP -24.2

Net +7.4

Strongly Remain
LD +13.4
Green +4.2
SNP +1.1
PC +0.3
ChUK +3.4

Net +22.4

You see a Hard Brexit wave barrelling over the nation there and sweeping Remain support away? Nope. Me neither.

Last night told us what the polls have been saying for months. Opinions have hardened. Parties that try to ride both horses get hammered. 30-35% of the population do want a Hard Brexit. 40+% want Brexit cancelled.

You go ahead an have your smug warm feeling about the Farageist being the biggest single party, but the actual facts don't support what you want them to. What Farage has actually done is to sweep up those who voted UKIP in 2014 and add about 3% extra on top. Whereas the unambiguously Remain supporting parties have added seven times that amount to their 2014 performance.

Wow, think your clutching at straws, still.

Fact is, the brexit party Dominated.
If the majority wanted to remain (which they certainly don't) then the lib dems would have done better, which they didn't.

Here's a point for you, a large majority DO want a hard brexit.
The rest (remain, and deal) can't decide what they want. It's those idiots who have caused this whole mess.

A large majority. 34.9%.

Quality maths, that.

At the end of the day, only around 30 of the 73 MEPs elected want no deal. The rest want to remain or Soft Brexit.

[BillyStubbsTears]

BS

I really, really hope your job doesn't involve numbers.

How in God's name do you draw the conclusion that a large majority want No Deal?

BFYP
How on earth do you come to that conclusion? 76% of people voted for parties that explicitly want a No Deal Brexit or Re2/Revoke.

[selby]

  Billy, do you realise how laughable the remain parties claiming they won that election is.
  Listen to talk radio, people with that opinion are being ridiculed on the airwaves, they are losing their credibility.
   How long has it been Billy since you had a result in an election you thought was right, there have not been many lately surely.
  Soubry even claimed that chuk did well because they were a new party, that brought the house down.
.

[albie]

Although turnout increased for an EU election, the majority chose NOT to vote.

So the key takeaway from this is that the "Dont give a toss party" have routed the mainstream players...again.

The question going forward is how to bring the disaffected back into the democratic arena?

[scawsby steve]

OK guys, once again it's down to me to bring some common sense and perspective to this debate. All the pundits and experts of all political persuasions have said that last night's results have only shown what people already knew, that the country is completely split down the middle on Brexit, and there are no numbers in Parliament for any way out of this.

I said the day after the 2016 Referendum that the Liberalist Establishment of Britain would never let us leave the EU, and that's exactly what's happening. Come October 31st, we'll ask for another extension, and it will be granted, and the sh*tshow will just go on and on.

All this means is that the country is bitterly divided, and that bitterness will never ever go away. I saw it after the miners' strike; brother against brother, father against son, friends against friends.

That's what we've got coming. Thanks a lot David Cameron.