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Author Topic: The cost of Brexit  (Read 2679 times)

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belton rover

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Re: The cost of Brexit
« Reply #30 on September 16, 2021, 01:44:15 pm by belton rover »
I agree that arrogant and abusive posters should f**k off. Don’t you?

I think everyone is entitled to an opinion, and everyone is entitled to disagree, but it is noticeable that your replies to certain posters are becoming more aggresive
Nice answer, Filo, but that’s not what I asked.

Oh, and do you consider yourself the man who decides acceptable levels of aggression on this forum?

Not at all Belton, just my opinion, you were far better when you debated topics rather than just tell people to “f**k off”, just my opinion ofcourse

I didn’t tell anyone to f**k off. I used the phrase in direct response to the poster you seem very concerned about, after he used it to describe all ‘Brexiters’ on this forum.

What you have done since that is what many vocal anti government/Brexit poster on here does - use it to play some ridiculous moral high horse game.

I am not going to speak for Bentley here, but what he did was use a play on words - on the bus/under the bus - it was a (quite funny) joke. EVERYONE knows that if they are completely honest about it.
But what happens? Billy pipes up about how awful it is that people want to see others get killed under a bus!

THAT is the fundamental thing that is wrong with this forum.



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belton rover

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Re: The cost of Brexit
« Reply #31 on September 16, 2021, 01:47:10 pm by belton rover »
I agree that arrogant and abusive posters should f**k off. Don’t you?

Mirror mirror on the wall.....................

Who’s the most bitter remoaner of them all?

Not Now Kato

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Re: The cost of Brexit
« Reply #32 on September 16, 2021, 01:54:35 pm by Not Now Kato »
I agree that arrogant and abusive posters should f**k off. Don’t you?

Mirror mirror on the wall.....................

Who’s the most bitter Brexshiter of them all?

Fixed that for you.

belton rover

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Re: The cost of Brexit
« Reply #33 on September 16, 2021, 01:54:53 pm by belton rover »
So that's one person wanting people he disagrees with to go under a bus.

And another one wanting a person he disagrees with to f**k off.

Pleasant place, this has become.
Billy. You made a song and dance about ‘blocking’ me a while ago. Now Whilst I know you never really ‘blocked’ me, some of your dwindling supporters might have believed you had some integrity left. Our Sydney even followed you. Now what are they going think?
I think when you block someone, yet still comment on their posts, it makes you a super troll.

No idea if he’s blocked you or not, but you do realise that any of your posts that have been quoted will be seen regardless?

Precisely Filo. I've enjoyed not seeing a couple of people's posts directly in my feed in recent months. It's been like breathing cleaner air for months instead of dealing with a constant stream of abuse and provocation. I recommend it to anyone. But sometimes you can't help but see them when someone quotes them. And then you get reminded just how unpleasant some people are. For the record, the reason I put Belton on ignore was because he responded to a joke from me with "f**k off you toxic prick." I reckon when interactions have got to that point, it's best to draw a line under any further exchange. And that applies whether I really WAS a toxic prick in those interactions, or whether Belton incorrectly thought I was. Whatever the truth, best to not engage anymore.

I’m quite aware how blocking works, Filo.

And there’s the rallying cry! If you want to be like Billy, then block belton.

#We’re all Billy.



belton rover

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Re: The cost of Brexit
« Reply #34 on September 16, 2021, 01:57:05 pm by belton rover »
I agree that arrogant and abusive posters should f**k off. Don’t you?

Mirror mirror on the wall.....................

Who’s the most bitter Brexshiter of them all?

Fixed that for you.

That might be quite funny, if it made any sense.

Bentley Bullet

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Re: The cost of Brexit
« Reply #35 on September 16, 2021, 03:29:16 pm by Bentley Bullet »
I agree that arrogant and abusive posters should f**k off. Don’t you?

I think everyone is entitled to an opinion, and everyone is entitled to disagree, but it is noticeable that your replies to certain posters are becoming more aggresive
Nice answer, Filo, but that’s not what I asked.

Oh, and do you consider yourself the man who decides acceptable levels of aggression on this forum?

Not at all Belton, just my opinion, you were far better when you debated topics rather than just tell people to “f**k off”, just my opinion ofcourse

I didn’t tell anyone to f**k off. I used the phrase in direct response to the poster you seem very concerned about, after he used it to describe all ‘Brexiters’ on this forum.

What you have done since that is what many vocal anti government/Brexit poster on here does - use it to play some ridiculous moral high horse game.

I am not going to speak for Bentley here, but what he did was use a play on words - on the bus/under the bus - it was a (quite funny) joke. EVERYONE knows that if they are completely honest about it.
But what happens? Billy pipes up about how awful it is that people want to see others get killed under a bus!

THAT is the fundamental thing that is wrong with this forum.

It's what they call grown-up politics, Belton!

Axholme Lion

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Re: The cost of Brexit
« Reply #36 on September 16, 2021, 03:36:53 pm by Axholme Lion »
Abuse is only condoned on here if it's given by the lefties.

Bentley Bullet

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Re: The cost of Brexit
« Reply #37 on September 16, 2021, 03:47:23 pm by Bentley Bullet »
That's because they're all so precious. They don't like it up 'em, as Corporal Jones used to say in Dad's Army.

albie

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Re: The cost of Brexit
« Reply #38 on September 16, 2021, 05:35:37 pm by albie »
Rest easy, Proud Boys!

Owt to say on the subject matter, the cost of Brexit?
If not, are we safe to assume you think the eye watering costs are just fine, OK for the future?

Less boys than codger battalion, really!

normal rules

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Re: The cost of Brexit
« Reply #39 on September 16, 2021, 11:21:39 pm by normal rules »
I’m noticing no different to my wallet or bank account content since brexit thank you.

BillyStubbsTears

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Re: The cost of Brexit
« Reply #40 on September 16, 2021, 11:26:13 pm by BillyStubbsTears »
I’m noticing no different to my wallet or bank account content since brexit thank you.

That's kind of the point. In normal times, the economy grows and we all, on average, get richer. We had growth throttled off by Austerity a decade ago, and just as it was feebly beginning to rise again, we voted for Brexit and economic growth collapsed again. So, allowing for inflation, we are barely any richer as a country than we were 11 years ago.

We are standing still. While most of the developed world has got richer. You might not notice that because it is a slow process. But over 20 or 30 years you will.

normal rules

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Re: The cost of Brexit
« Reply #41 on September 16, 2021, 11:36:50 pm by normal rules »
I’m not arsed about being richer. Genuinely. I’m happy with my lot. More to life than just money. Providing I’ve enough to pay bills, which I have thankfully, and a bit left over for spends.then I’m happy.
All this talk of brexit losses is fully expected by me.it took us decades to become financially shackled by the union. It will take decades for us to be fully beneficial by freeing ourselves of it. The benefits won’t be realised overnight. Probably not in my lifetime. But In time, I feel they will be.
Other Eu states will look back in years to come, And see the UK as leaders in outing what is fast becoming a rogue empire, hell bent now on their own Army. History repeating itself. ? May be not this year, or this decade. But Ursula Von de shithouse is looking more and more like a sith baroness with every day that passes.

SydneyRover

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Re: The cost of Brexit
« Reply #42 on September 17, 2021, 12:19:19 am by SydneyRover »
I’m not arsed about being richer. Genuinely. I’m happy with my lot. More to life than just money. Providing I’ve enough to pay bills, which I have thankfully, and a bit left over for spends.then I’m happy.
All this talk of brexit losses is fully expected by me.it took us decades to become financially shackled by the union. It will take decades for us to be fully beneficial by freeing ourselves of it. The benefits won’t be realised overnight. Probably not in my lifetime. But In time, I feel they will be.
Other Eu states will look back in years to come, And see the UK as leaders in outing what is fast becoming a rogue empire, hell bent now on their own Army. History repeating itself. ? May be not this year, or this decade. But Ursula Von de shithouse is looking more and more like a sith baroness with every day that passes.

As no one told us that we'd have to wait decades ''to be fully beneficial by freeing ourselves of it''

You may be one of the few that understands this concept and it would be good for you to explain it.

''Other Eu states will look back in years to come, And see the UK as leaders in outing what is fast becoming a rogue empire''

You could also explain what this means.

It's a good job you're not arsed about being rich because as you say the benefits of opting out will not be felt for decades and not in your lifetime, it's your grandkids that will need the wealth.

'Not being arsed about wealth' ask someone about wealth that is not fortunate to be in your position, maybe one of those unfortunates to come into contact with the money burning bullington club arseholes and their admirers.

normal rules

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Re: The cost of Brexit
« Reply #43 on September 17, 2021, 08:35:27 am by normal rules »
I “feel” this will be the case. I’m no expert on global economics, like some profess to be on here.
A bit like marriage. You enter into a long term relationship with mortgages etc. Then it goes tits up. Divorce. Financial instability etc etc. It’s takes time to come out of the other side of this. A simplistic view I agree. And the EU divorce is an exponentially larger case of course. The principle is the same .
It’s been done to death on here about the “democracy” of the EU. Unelected people with huge power.now wanting their own army.

normal rules

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Re: The cost of Brexit
« Reply #44 on September 17, 2021, 08:37:22 am by normal rules »
And I know what it’s like to be on my arse financially. I come from a humble background. Mums family from Stainy, dads from Moorends. Both mining families.

Axholme Lion

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Re: The cost of Brexit
« Reply #45 on September 17, 2021, 09:14:53 am by Axholme Lion »
The EU have already started the problems in Ukraine with their puppets.

normal rules

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Re: The cost of Brexit
« Reply #46 on September 17, 2021, 11:22:54 am by normal rules »
Without doubt, Ukraine will be top of the list of sith baroness Bon de shithouse conflict list when the EU go toe to toe with the Russians there.
And what’s the betting when it does kick off there, the EU will come crawling for our  help. Although I’m sure NATO would have to step in .
Can you see where this is going? The dip shits in Brussels will end up forcing NATOs hand and dragging us all into the mire of mires.
Afghan will look like a holiday by comparison.

Axholme Lion

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Re: The cost of Brexit
« Reply #47 on September 17, 2021, 01:18:08 pm by Axholme Lion »
We need to stop involving ourselves in other people's wars. If Ukraine want to have a pop at Russia let them do it by themselves. Trump was right about NATO, too many freeloaders. We don't owe the Baltic states anything.

selby

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Re: The cost of Brexit
« Reply #48 on September 17, 2021, 01:28:23 pm by selby »
  If you went on form like football teams you wouldn't back the EU, not many of them countries have won a match for a couple of hundred years.

Not Now Kato

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Re: The cost of Brexit
« Reply #49 on September 21, 2021, 04:26:57 pm by Not Now Kato »
I “feel” this will be the case. I’m no expert on global economics, like some profess to be on here.
A bit like marriage. You enter into a long term relationship with mortgages etc. Then it goes tits up. Divorce. Financial instability etc etc. It’s takes time to come out of the other side of this. A simplistic view I agree. And the EU divorce is an exponentially larger case of course. The principle is the same .
It’s been done to death on here about the “democracy” of the EU. Unelected people with huge power.now wanting their own army.

It's been done to death on here, with links to 'how' the EU operate, and showing that every position is in fact elected. But some people STILL believe the lies and distortions put out by the likes of the Mail and Express!
 
As to the EU wanting their own army, that's one person expressing her opinion, not the EU as a whole.  You are aware that, to have their own army, the EU would have to pass a change to it's constitution and that one simple veto would prevent that happening don't you?  Oh,  I forgot,  you won't get to read that in the Mail/Express.

wilts rover

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Re: The cost of Brexit
« Reply #50 on September 21, 2021, 05:57:26 pm by wilts rover »
I “feel” this will be the case. I’m no expert on global economics, like some profess to be on here.
A bit like marriage. You enter into a long term relationship with mortgages etc. Then it goes tits up. Divorce. Financial instability etc etc. It’s takes time to come out of the other side of this. A simplistic view I agree. And the EU divorce is an exponentially larger case of course. The principle is the same .
It’s been done to death on here about the “democracy” of the EU. Unelected people with huge power.now wanting their own army.

It's been done to death on here, with links to 'how' the EU operate, and showing that every position is in fact elected. But some people STILL believe the lies and distortions put out by the likes of the Mail and Express!
 
As to the EU wanting their own army, that's one person expressing her opinion, not the EU as a whole.  You are aware that, to have their own army, the EU would have to pass a change to it's constitution and that one simple veto would prevent that happening don't you?  Oh,  I forgot,  you won't get to read that in the Mail/Express.

Given that the UK and US have proven to the other EU countries they are prepared to go behind their backs in security matters - I would reckon the possibility of a European Army has increased drastically over the past few weeks.

drfchound

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Re: The cost of Brexit
« Reply #51 on September 21, 2021, 06:27:28 pm by drfchound »
Wilts, are you the person that NNK is suggesting is the “one persons opinion” on the EU starting its own army.   ;)

hstripes

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Re: The cost of Brexit
« Reply #52 on September 21, 2021, 07:31:36 pm by hstripes »
I’m noticing no different to my wallet or bank account content since brexit thank you.

That's kind of the point. In normal times, the economy grows and we all, on average, get richer. We had growth throttled off by Austerity a decade ago, and just as it was feebly beginning to rise again, we voted for Brexit and economic growth collapsed again. So, allowing for inflation, we are barely any richer as a country than we were 11 years ago.

We are standing still. While most of the developed world has got richer. You might not notice that because it is a slow process. But over 20 or 30 years you will.

There's a nastiness and disrespectfulness on this thread, from both sides of the argument, which is a real shame.

Now I'm of the opinion that the Brexit vote has made us marginally worse off short term as would have been expected from worsening our trade links to our biggest market. I've argued elsewhere that some of the negative effects will be overcome and therefore be short term, whilst the benefits of regaining sovereignty and democratic control are likely to be longer term in nature. Therefore whether Brexit is a success or failure should be considered long term after all Brexit was a long term decision.

However I'd like to challenge "we voted for Brexit and economic growth collapsed again" by reference to the ONS https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/grossdomesticproductgdp/timeseries/abmi/pn2. Please explain where on this graph economic growth collapsed post referendum. Can see a collapse in the 2008 recession, can definitely see a collapse from the pandemic in 2020. As I argued there's signs of a marginal reduction 2016-2019 but a collapse??

BillyStubbsTears

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Re: The cost of Brexit
« Reply #53 on September 21, 2021, 08:04:53 pm by BillyStubbsTears »
If you are going to discuss this accurately and honestly, you need to be clear what the terms of the discussion are.

I was talking about economic GROWTH. You, Hstripes, have posted a figure showing GDP not GDP growth.

GDP growth is the slope of that graph. A 1% drop in GDP growth has a huge effect on our economic well-being, but you're not going to see it very clearly in a graph of GDP.

This is what our GDP growth looked like before and after the Brexit vote.



Now, put that in international context. Every single other member of the G7 saw their GDP growth INCREASE by 1.5-2.5% between 2016-2018. The UK alone saw the thick end of a 1% drop.

The consequences of that are enormous. It's calculated that by the time COVID hit, our economic underperformance relative to the other G7 countries had cost us something north of £150bn in lost output.
« Last Edit: September 21, 2021, 08:17:18 pm by BillyStubbsTears »

hstripes

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Re: The cost of Brexit
« Reply #54 on September 21, 2021, 08:26:05 pm by hstripes »
I'm not sure I care for being called dishonest. Are you alone setting the terms of the discussion?

I'm aware you were talking about GDP growth. The graph shows GDP by year hence GDP growth is reflected in the slope of the graph as you say (where is your problem with this). Again where is the collapse in growth? I admit there is a reduction. The web site allows you to zoom in to indicate this more clearly.

I am being honest and balanced. Didn't I say I agree that leaving the EU has meant the economy is smaller than it would have been. I'm not disputing this.

Where in the original post did you refer to other nations? You simply said "we voted for Brexit and economic growth collapsed again". i.e. in the UK not relative to other nations. It's that statement I was disputing.

Who is changing the terms of the discussion by bringing in international comparisons?

PS compared to other EU nations in the G7 our growth rate (dishonestly (?) excluded from your analysis) in 2019 was very competitive (UK 1.4%; France 1.5%; Germany 0.6%; Italy 0.3%) perhaps underlining my point that we shouldn't be too short-termist when assessing Brexit.
« Last Edit: September 21, 2021, 08:37:07 pm by hstripes »

hstripes

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Re: The cost of Brexit
« Reply #55 on September 21, 2021, 09:35:54 pm by hstripes »
I've said I think Brexit should be considered long term. Genuinely interested in the short term impact though. Maybe about to embarrass myself but that's fine as the forum is anonymous. Thought I'd take UK GDP from 1/1/16 to 1/1/20 https://www.statista.com/statistics/281744/gdp-of-the-united-kingdom/ (not much sign of a collapse in growth on this graph either btw  :P) and see how much bigger the economy would have been if we had had the same growth rate as Germany (selected as in the EU and a large, stable economy so not prone to wild changes which would skew the data).

                           If same      
At 1st Jan   Actual GDP   as Germany   Economic growth rates   
                      £m   £m               UK   Germany
2016   2,043,909       2,043,909        1.7   2.23
2017   2,079,113       2,089,488        1.7   2.6
2018   2,115,296       2,143,815        1.3   1.57
2019   2,141,792       2,177,473        1.4   0.56
2020   2,172,511       2,189,667      
            
   Lost GDP £   17,155,603,926      
   Approx Population   66,650,000      
   Lost GDP per head £   257.40      

So therefore without Brexit, assuming the economy had grown at the same rate as Germany, as at 1/1/20 the economy would have been £17bn larger and we'd each individually, on average, be just over £250 per year better off.

Happy to be corrected if my analysis is flawed as genuinely interested.
« Last Edit: September 21, 2021, 09:44:03 pm by hstripes »

Glyn_Wigley

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Re: The cost of Brexit
« Reply #56 on September 21, 2021, 10:13:39 pm by Glyn_Wigley »
The graph shows GDP by year hence GDP growth is reflected in the slope of the graph

Only if it takes inflation into account and the graph is in real terms.

BillyStubbsTears

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Re: The cost of Brexit
« Reply #57 on September 21, 2021, 10:13:56 pm by BillyStubbsTears »
This is meant in the very best of spirits, but your analysis is flawed for two reasons.

Easy one first. You are dealing with just GDP in 2020 as the metric. But GDP is effectively annual income. And it has been below the hypothetical Germany growth rate figure for every year since Brexit. By your figures, £10bn in 2017, £28bn in 2018, £36bn in 2019 and £17bn in 2020. That all adds up. The total cumulative lossvof economic activity is £91bn by your figures. That's enough to give everyone in the country a 5 month break from income tax. It's enough to build 200 large new hospitals. That's gone. Lost.

And that's just taking your figures. But there's a bigger mistaken premise there. You are taking 2016's figures as the datum. But that already included the shuddering slowdown due to the Brexit vote. In 2015, our growth rate was 2.4%. it clattered down to 1.7% as a direct result of the Brexit outcome as investment pretty much stopped overnight.

And here's the thing. It stayed as high as 1.7% because all round the developed world, a mini boom was going on. Germany's growth rate leaped from 1.5% in 2015 to 2.6% in 2017. France from 1.1% to 2.2%. Even Italy rose from 0.8% to 1.7%.

So a fair analysis shouldn't compare our actual GDP growth to Germany's over that period. It should compare the CHANGE in our GDP growth to the change in comparable countries. Ours went down by about 0.75%. All the other G7 countries (whether doing well or poorly in 2015) went up by 1% or so. And that lasted until 2019. So from straight after the Brexit vote, our economy suddenly started performing 1.5-2% worse than expected. And that continued for 3 years. That means that by 2019 our GDP was about 5% lower than we might reasonably expected if we'd have experienced the miniboom that the rest of the G7 had. That's about £100bn in 2019. And that comes on top of losing about £60bn in 2018 and £30bn in 2017. £190bn in total. Eye watering amounts.

So as I said, the actual cost of the slowdown in economic growth that we alone suffered after 2016 was somewhere north of £150bn.

SydneyRover

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Re: The cost of Brexit
« Reply #58 on September 21, 2021, 11:18:41 pm by SydneyRover »
I've said I think Brexit should be considered long term. Genuinely interested in the short term impact though. Maybe about to embarrass myself but that's fine as the forum is anonymous. Thought I'd take UK GDP from 1/1/16 to 1/1/20 https://www.statista.com/statistics/281744/gdp-of-the-united-kingdom/ (not much sign of a collapse in growth on this graph either btw  :P) and see how much bigger the economy would have been if we had had the same growth rate as Germany (selected as in the EU and a large, stable economy so not prone to wild changes which would skew the data).

                           If same      
At 1st Jan   Actual GDP   as Germany   Economic growth rates   
                      £m   £m               UK   Germany
2016   2,043,909       2,043,909        1.7   2.23
2017   2,079,113       2,089,488        1.7   2.6
2018   2,115,296       2,143,815        1.3   1.57
2019   2,141,792       2,177,473        1.4   0.56
2020   2,172,511       2,189,667      
            
   Lost GDP £   17,155,603,926      
   Approx Population   66,650,000      
   Lost GDP per head £   257.40      

So therefore without Brexit, assuming the economy had grown at the same rate as Germany, as at 1/1/20 the economy would have been £17bn larger and we'd each individually, on average, be just over £250 per year better off.

Happy to be corrected if my analysis is flawed as genuinely interested.

It would be good if you could put some meat on the bones of this and give an indication of where, how and when these benefits will materialise and if the will be any associated dis-benefits that come with them, such as subsidies to farmers, lost jobs because of cheaper imports etc.

If one believed the rhetoric the gates were to be thrown open and all the benefits would rush in putting Britain almost instantly at the top of the pile looking down on an envious but bereft Europe, swimming in money that we didn't have to pay those dastardly Europeans.

Added:

To make it a bit easier but also acknowledging there was no discussion about any delay to the benefits. Although the johnson was crowing about a deal being oven ready, it appears he forgot to put a bob in the gas meter, what would you suggest is a fair amount of time in which Britons can expect to see some benefit?

« Last Edit: September 22, 2021, 02:40:38 am by SydneyRover »

drfchound

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Re: The cost of Brexit
« Reply #59 on September 22, 2021, 09:22:52 am by drfchound »
I voted to remain but am quite happy to accept that we are out now, it was after all a democratic vote.
However I don’t recall the Brexiteers telling us tha all the benefits would rush in and that we would be instantly top of the pile.
There was the big exaggeration about the £350m per week.
I doubt that many people thought Brexit benefits would be instant.

 

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