North Shropshire

[drfchound]

People have to also rembember this was a place that voted 60% brexit and they’ve elected a pro european party, that is the scale of the victory

The thing is though Filo that Brexit is done now.
Many people have moved on.
Admittedly, some people will bang on about it forever but it can’t be changed, well, not without another referendum.

[Axholme Lion]

People have to also rembember this was a place that voted 60% brexit and they’ve elected a pro european party, that is the scale of the victory

The thing is though Filo that Brexit is done now.
Many people have moved on.
Admittedly, some people will bang on about it forever but it can’t be changed, well, not without another referendum.

Purely a protest vote, although voting Liberal is not the answer. They're like the loony fringe of the Greens. You wouldn't be let out of the house without taking a covid test and they don't like people owning their own cars.

[BVB]

People have to also rembember this was a place that voted 60% brexit and they’ve elected a pro european party, that is the scale of the victory

The thing is though Filo that Brexit is done now.
Many people have moved on.
Admittedly, some people will bang on about it forever but it can’t be changed, well, not without another referendum.

As I’ve pointed out on another thread, Hound, Brexit is far from done.
Tell my family in NI that Brexit is “done”.
BVB

[Pancho Regan]

It is a protest vote, more than likely against Boris than the Tories.
I said a couple of weeks ago that he will be gone soon and this kind of reinforces my thoughts on that.
There will be much celebrating by Labour when he does get the boot but realisation that his replacement (probably Sunak) will do a much better job and make it harder for Labour, or the Libs, to make any headway.

I follow your logic hound but there might be another angle to this.
Whatever Boris's failings, it's clear from his victory in the last GE that he appeals to a certain type of voter, and there were enough of them to sweep him into power.

Sunak might appear to be a safer pair of hands but do you think he would appeal to those same voters?
I doubt it.

The UK electorate never cease to surprise me.

Sunak replacing Boris may, paradoxically, turn out to be the best thing for Labour, not the Tories.

[drfchound]

It is a protest vote, more than likely against Boris than the Tories.
I said a couple of weeks ago that he will be gone soon and this kind of reinforces my thoughts on that.
There will be much celebrating by Labour when he does get the boot but realisation that his replacement (probably Sunak) will do a much better job and make it harder for Labour, or the Libs, to make any headway.

I follow your logic hound but there might be another angle to this.
Whatever Boris's failings, it's clear from his victory in the last GE that he appeals to a certain type of voter, and there were enough of them to sweep him into power.

Sunak might appear to be a safer pair of hands but do you think he would appeal to those same voters?
I doubt it.

The UK electorate never cease to surprise me.

Sunak replacing Boris may, paradoxically, turn out to be the best thing for Labour, not the Tories.

Yep, I get that Pancho.
I guess there is only one way to find out but much water will pass under the bridge before the next GE.
Who knows what will happen before then.

[Bentley Bullet]

It is a protest vote, more than likely against Boris than the Tories.
I said a couple of weeks ago that he will be gone soon and this kind of reinforces my thoughts on that.
There will be much celebrating by Labour when he does get the boot but realisation that his replacement (probably Sunak) will do a much better job and make it harder for Labour, or the Libs, to make any headway.

As useless as Boris is, he's a brilliant election campaigner. I can't see any of his prospective replacements being as good.

I can't imagine any of his prospective replacements being as bad as Keir Starmer.

[selby]

  They will pick a much calmer, concentrated, stronger personality, possibly a woman to attract the female vote and highlight past success, and will  concentrate on the economy,  immigration, and water down some of the transport and environmental policies, and wait until after the next election to introduce the most draconian tax rises all while pointing out the liberal and labour parties stance on those issues.

[BVB]

You don’t mean….oh no…..not…not - 
Liz Cheese!

[BillyStubbsTears]

They don't HAVE any calm, strong options.

They have:
Sunak who vanishes in a crisis and who is presiding over a shockingly weak recovery with real pay set to plummet next year.

Patel who is a Poundland would be fascist..

Raab who failed as Foreign Secretary.

Truss who makes May look socially adept.

Or Gove the coke-head.

All the above have consistently got worse ratings than Johnson in Approval polls.

[Bentley Bullet]

Notice there was around a 22% lesser turnout than in the 2019 election. I wonder how many of those were Tory abstainers?

[Pancho Regan]

They don't HAVE any calm, strong options.

They have:
Sunak who vanishes in a crisis and who is presiding over a shockingly weak recovery with real pay set to plummet next year.

Patel who is a Poundland would be fascist..

Raab who failed as Foreign Secretary.

Truss who makes May look socially adept.

Or Gove the coke-head.

All the above have consistently got worse ratings than Johnson in Approval polls.

Could it be a comeback for Jeremy Hunt?

He's the nearest they have to a human being.

[Bentley Bullet]

They don't HAVE any calm, strong options.

They have:
Sunak who vanishes in a crisis and who is presiding over a shockingly weak recovery with real pay set to plummet next year.

Patel who is a Poundland would be fascist..

Raab who failed as Foreign Secretary.

Truss who makes May look socially adept.

Or Gove the coke-head.

All the above have consistently got worse ratings than Johnson in Approval polls.

And you have Starmer!

[BillyStubbsTears]

Notice there was around a 22% lesser turnout than in the 2019 election. I wonder how many of those were Tory abstainers?

I'm sure a lot of them were. And I'm sure they will regain that specific seat at the next election. With a lot of the abstainers returning.

The key question is how many of those 2019 Tory voters who are currently pissed off with the Tories actually return at the next election? There will definitely be enough for them to win this seat. But if just a quarter of them stay at home, the Tory vote would be badly hit.

They are going to need some very positive stuff to happen over the next couple of years to lift their fortunes. And there's nowt but grim struggle forecast. Falling real pay for 18 months, then stagnant growth after that.

[Axholme Lion]

They don't HAVE any calm, strong options.

They have:
Sunak who vanishes in a crisis and who is presiding over a shockingly weak recovery with real pay set to plummet next year.

Patel who is a Poundland would be fascist..

Raab who failed as Foreign Secretary.

Truss who makes May look socially adept.

Or Gove the coke-head.

All the above have consistently got worse ratings than Johnson in Approval polls.

I would have thought Priti would be your choice as she ticks two of the equality and diversity boxes?

[BillyStubbsTears]

They don't HAVE any calm, strong options.

They have:
Sunak who vanishes in a crisis and who is presiding over a shockingly weak recovery with real pay set to plummet next year.

Patel who is a Poundland would be fascist..

Raab who failed as Foreign Secretary.

Truss who makes May look socially adept.

Or Gove the coke-head.

All the above have consistently got worse ratings than Johnson in Approval polls.

And you have Starmer!

Who currently has the highest approval rating of any Opposition leader 18 months into the job since Blair.

YOU don't like Starmer (while oddly, never criticising Johnson). Doesn't mean the country wouldn't vote for him.

[BillyStubbsTears]

They don't HAVE any calm, strong options.

They have:
Sunak who vanishes in a crisis and who is presiding over a shockingly weak recovery with real pay set to plummet next year.

Patel who is a Poundland would be fascist..

Raab who failed as Foreign Secretary.

Truss who makes May look socially adept.

Or Gove the coke-head.

All the above have consistently got worse ratings than Johnson in Approval polls.

I would have thought Priti would be your choice as she ticks two of the equality and diversity boxes?

What? Fascist AND incompetent?

[Axholme Lion]

They don't HAVE any calm, strong options.

They have:
Sunak who vanishes in a crisis and who is presiding over a shockingly weak recovery with real pay set to plummet next year.

Patel who is a Poundland would be fascist..

Raab who failed as Foreign Secretary.

Truss who makes May look socially adept.

Or Gove the coke-head.

All the above have consistently got worse ratings than Johnson in Approval polls.

I would have thought Priti would be your choice as she ticks two of the equality and diversity boxes?

What? Fascist AND incompetent?

What's the choice on the other side of the house?

[BillyStubbsTears]

The man with the highest appr...why bother?

[Axholme Lion]

The man with the highest appr...why bother?

It's only by default because BJ is so pony. By the time the next election comes Johnson will be sat at home making buses out of cardboard boxes,Labour will still be fighting amongst themselves and the Liberal who won the by election will be sharpening pencils in the dole office.

[big fat yorkshire pudding]

They don't HAVE any calm, strong options.

They have:
Sunak who vanishes in a crisis and who is presiding over a shockingly weak recovery with real pay set to plummet next year.

Patel who is a Poundland would be fascist..

Raab who failed as Foreign Secretary.

Truss who makes May look socially adept.

Or Gove the coke-head.

All the above have consistently got worse ratings than Johnson in Approval polls.

And you have Starmer!

Who currently has the highest approval rating of any Opposition leader 18 months into the job since Blair.

YOU don't like Starmer (while oddly, never criticising Johnson). Doesn't mean the country wouldn't vote for him.

Do you think they will?  I'm unconvinced.

That I'm more likely to vote for labour under him than ever before suggests that for many he probably isn't going the right direction, but I think he's quite competent, a safe pair of hands.  I do though feel if you compared him to football managers he's Roy Hodgson boring, safe but does a job and Boris is Mourinho, extravagant and quality for a short period of time before he loses the plot in self arrogance.  Which of those do the electorate want?

[Axholme Lion]

They don't HAVE any calm, strong options.

They have:
Sunak who vanishes in a crisis and who is presiding over a shockingly weak recovery with real pay set to plummet next year.

Patel who is a Poundland would be fascist..

Raab who failed as Foreign Secretary.

Truss who makes May look socially adept.

Or Gove the coke-head.

All the above have consistently got worse ratings than Johnson in Approval polls.

And you have Starmer!

Who currently has the highest approval rating of any Opposition leader 18 months into the job since Blair.

YOU don't like Starmer (while oddly, never criticising Johnson). Doesn't mean the country wouldn't vote for him.

Do you think they will?  I'm unconvinced.

That I'm more likely to vote for labour under him than ever before suggests that for many he probably isn't going the right direction, but I think he's quite competent, a safe pair of hands.  I do though feel if you compared him to football managers he's Roy Hodgson boring, safe but does a job and Boris is Mourinho, extravagant and quality for a short period of time before he loses the plot in self arrogance.  Which of those do the electorate want?

Neither. It's alright voting for Starmer when he's got the Red Brigade looking over his shoulder.

[Bentley Bullet]

Notice there was around a 22% lesser turnout than in the 2019 election. I wonder how many of those were Tory abstainers?

I'm sure a lot of them were. And I'm sure they will regain that specific seat at the next election. With a lot of the abstainers returning.

The key question is how many of those 2019 Tory voters who are currently pissed off with the Tories actually return at the next election? There will definitely be enough for them to win this seat. But if just a quarter of them stay at home, the Tory vote would be badly hit.

They are going to need some very positive stuff to happen over the next couple of years to lift their fortunes. And there's nowt but grim struggle forecast. Falling real pay for 18 months, then stagnant growth after that.

The Labour party are going to need to be more convincing too. As it stands now, getting a Tory voter to defect to Labour would be reminiscent of a Donny Rovers fan defecting to Scunthorpe Utd.

[redwine]

They don't HAVE any calm, strong options.

They have:
Sunak who vanishes in a crisis and who is presiding over a shockingly weak recovery with real pay set to plummet next year.

Patel who is a Poundland would be fascist..

Raab who failed as Foreign Secretary.

Truss who makes May look socially adept.

Or Gove the coke-head.

All the above have consistently got worse ratings than Johnson in Approval polls.

I would have thought Priti would be your choice as she ticks two of the equality and diversity boxes?

Personally, I'm not convinced she is a woman.

[Bentley Bullet]

They don't HAVE any calm, strong options.

They have:
Sunak who vanishes in a crisis and who is presiding over a shockingly weak recovery with real pay set to plummet next year.

Patel who is a Poundland would be fascist..

Raab who failed as Foreign Secretary.

Truss who makes May look socially adept.

Or Gove the coke-head.

All the above have consistently got worse ratings than Johnson in Approval polls.

I would have thought Priti would be your choice as she ticks two of the equality and diversity boxes?

Personally, I'm not convinced she is a woman.

She's convinced me enough. Put it this way, she'd get it.

[BillyStubbsTears]

The man with the highest appr...why bother?

It's only by default because BJ is so pony. By the time the next election comes Johnson will be sat at home making buses out of cardboard boxes,Labour will still be fighting amongst themselves and the Liberal who won the by election will be sharpening pencils in the dole office.

It's got nothing to do with Johnson. I'm not talking about polls on whether Starmer is better than Johnson. It's polls on whether, on balance, people approve or disapprove of Starmer. Generally, after a couple of years in the job, Opposition leaders have big negative scores because they are seen as being constantly sniping, but having no responsibility. The only one in the past 50 years who wasn't was Blair. Starmer is only slightly in negative territory, which is the best since Blair for an Opposition Leader 18 months in.

[drfchound]

They don't HAVE any calm, strong options.

They have:
Sunak who vanishes in a crisis and who is presiding over a shockingly weak recovery with real pay set to plummet next year.

Patel who is a Poundland would be fascist..

Raab who failed as Foreign Secretary.

Truss who makes May look socially adept.

Or Gove the coke-head.

All the above have consistently got worse ratings than Johnson in Approval polls.

I would have thought Priti would be your choice as she ticks two of the equality and diversity boxes?

What? Fascist AND incompetent?

What's the choice on the other side of the house?

Nothing forthcoming AL so don’t hold your breath too long.

[drfchound]

The man with the highest appr...why bother?

It's only by default because BJ is so pony. By the time the next election comes Johnson will be sat at home making buses out of cardboard boxes,Labour will still be fighting amongst themselves and the Liberal who won the by election will be sharpening pencils in the dole office.

It's got nothing to do with Johnson. I'm not talking about polls on whether Starmer is better than Johnson. It's polls on whether, on balance, people approve or disapprove of Starmer. Generally, after a couple of years in the job, Opposition leaders have big negative scores because they are seen as being constantly sniping, but having no responsibility. The only one in the past 50 years who wasn't was Blair. Starmer is only slightly in negative territory, which is the best since Blair for an Opposition Leader 18 months in.

Starmer must be a shoe in

[tyke1962]

Seems to me and in my opinion neither Labour or the Lib Dems can beat the Tories at a GE .

However by joining forces at the next GE they most certainly can with a pre emptive view to form a coalition government .

If Labour had withdrawn their candidate the Lib Dems would have won even more comfortably and this could be repeated in a good many seats across the country and vice versa .

Labour and the Lib Dems can't be too far apart with Labour's shift to the centre and all it needs is some ego's getting pegged down and some self reflection to make it happen .

I've obviously no dog in this fight these days but it will be interesting to hear the views of Sydney , Billy and others and see if they are willing to take a spoonful of their own medicine .

You don't 100% get what you want so you have to compromise in order to get rid of the Tories .

[BillyStubbsTears]

Tyke.

Of course I would. I support PR and that would mean Labour never having a majority.
I'd be delighted if there was a left-centre pact.

[scawsby steve]

A Lib-Lab coalition would be perfect for the liberalists.

With snake oil Chuka Umunna as leader.

Job done.