Brexit Dividend

[albie]

Wilts,

"I think he is trying to appeal to people who are never going to vote for him - but I guess its up to the people who he is trying to appeal to comment on that."

This is the nub of the Starmer problem, leaning to the right for marginal gains and ignoring the much larger gains to be had from those who do not vote.

In addition, ruling out working with other parties is complete madness;
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2022/jul/03/talk-to-the-snp-keir-starmer-tory

Keith does not understand politics, and has a very poor grasp of the possibilities under the current system.
He is toast once the Tories cull Bozo.

[SydneyRover]

Plenty didn't back him to get to this position aye Albie?

[ravenrover]

Back in the EU, say goodbye to £ hello euro

[wilts rover]

Back to Brexit. According to the OECD - since the vote per capita income in the UK has fallen 4% compared with the EU where it has risen by 15%. The UK is getting poorer compared with the EU:

https://twitter.com/JohnRow64286327/status/1541307479602118656/photo/1

[big fat yorkshire pudding]

And your only way to change that is vote lib Dem. No other way it could get even close to changing.

[scawsby steve]

There's no way we can or should reopen the wounds on this at this moment.

We WILL end up back in the SM and CU. Maybe back in the EU.

But that will only be feasible when enough people in this country realise what damage they have done to our economic prospects by Brexit.

And of course the following should go without saying but, y'know.

I would be delighted for Labour to be able to make a success of Brexit and restore our prosperity in a way that made rejoining European institutions unnecessary. But I'm a realist. They won't because it ain't possible.

Regarding that last paragraph, BST, it suggests that Keith is either a fool or a liar. Which one?

[BillyStubbsTears]

Neither SS

Labour will attempt to make a better fist of Brexit than this bunch.

But they will not be able to make us as well off as we could have been if we'd stayed in the SM and CU.

Both those things can be true.

[BillyStubbsTears]

Back to Brexit. According to the OECD - since the vote per capita income in the UK has fallen 4% compared with the EU where it has risen by 15%. The UK is getting poorer compared with the EU:

https://twitter.com/JohnRow64286327/status/1541307479602118656/photo/1

Probably not unconnected to this

[BillyStubbsTears]

Labour had been put in a bind by Brexit, that's for sure. And it will take more political genius than they, or anyone has to square this circle.

1) They have to throw out the option of rejoining the EU at the next election. Not because it's wrong economically. Because it's prudent politically. (and Branton, saying that they should have had this take in 19 ignores the thing that people on the Left who support Brexit always ignore - what would have happened to the great mass of Labour supporters who didn't want Brexit. You always harp on about the support Labour lost by the Ref2 policy. But you ignore the support they would have lost without the Ref2 policy. Even though the polling evidence was smacking Labour in the face in Spring 19 when Corbyn finally fully embraced Brexit. The difference now of course is that Brexit has happened. So the political landscape is totally different. Any party that tries to churn up that ground again so soon would be pilloried.)

2) But no matter what we do, our economic performance will struggle through to the end of this decade at least. Because of Brexit. So, if Labour win in 24, they will be blamed for the limp performance through to 29.

Very tough one to deal with.

In the very long term, it might actually be better for both Labour and the country if the Tories win a majority in 24. Let them own the long term economic consequences of Brexit. And set the scene for a rejoin referendum by popular demand sometime in the early 30s.

[Branton Red]

Labour had been put in a bind by Brexit, that's for sure. And it will take more political genius than they, or anyone has to square this circle.

1) They have to throw out the option of rejoining the EU at the next election. Not because it's wrong economically. Because it's prudent politically. (and Branton, saying that they should have had this take in 19 ignores the thing that people on the Left who support Brexit always ignore - what would have happened to the great mass of Labour supporters who didn't want Brexit. You always harp on about the support Labour lost by the Ref2 policy. But you ignore the support they would have lost without the Ref2 policy. Even though the polling evidence was smacking Labour in the face in Spring 19 when Corbyn finally fully embraced Brexit. The difference now of course is that Brexit has happened. So the political landscape is totally different. Any party that tries to churn up that ground again so soon would be pilloried.)

2) But no matter what we do, our economic performance will struggle through to the end of this decade at least. Because of Brexit. So, if Labour win in 24, they will be blamed for the limp performance through to 29.

Very tough one to deal with.

In the very long term, it might actually be better for both Labour and the country if the Tories win a majority in 24. Let them own the long term economic consequences of Brexit. And set the scene for a rejoin referendum by popular demand sometime in the early 30s.

Not wanting to reopen previous debates but suffice to say I agree thoroughly with the bits I've underlined and I consider everything else you've written to be complete and utter tosh.

[scawsby steve]

Labour had been put in a bind by Brexit, that's for sure. And it will take more political genius than they, or anyone has to square this circle.

1) They have to throw out the option of rejoining the EU at the next election. Not because it's wrong economically. Because it's prudent politically. (and Branton, saying that they should have had this take in 19 ignores the thing that people on the Left who support Brexit always ignore - what would have happened to the great mass of Labour supporters who didn't want Brexit. You always harp on about the support Labour lost by the Ref2 policy. But you ignore the support they would have lost without the Ref2 policy. Even though the polling evidence was smacking Labour in the face in Spring 19 when Corbyn finally fully embraced Brexit. The difference now of course is that Brexit has happened. So the political landscape is totally different. Any party that tries to churn up that ground again so soon would be pilloried.)

2) But no matter what we do, our economic performance will struggle through to the end of this decade at least. Because of Brexit. So, if Labour win in 24, they will be blamed for the limp performance through to 29.

Very tough one to deal with.

In the very long term, it might actually be better for both Labour and the country if the Tories win a majority in 24. Let them own the long term economic consequences of Brexit. And set the scene for a rejoin referendum by popular demand sometime in the early 30s.

By God, that last paragraph is highly speculative, and for a staunch Labour supporter, somewhat defeatist.

Are you starting to lose confidence in Keith?

[BillyStubbsTears]

Branton
As well argued as ever...

Still. At least you've stopped banging on about how the 2016 vote made it inevitable that the UK had to leave the SM and CU.

SS.
I had this discussion with my grandad after the 1992 election when I was distraught that Labour had lost again.

He said "It's a poisoned chalice. Just wait and see. Best thing Labour could have done, losing this one."

He was the smartest person I've ever known, despite him leaving school at 14 and going straight to work at the pit. Bang on the money on that one. Sometimes it's the big, long term fight that really matters.

[drfchound]

There are some pre election defeat excuses being made already.

[normal rules]

Can anyone name any uk government in modern times that could not be classed as a poisoned chalice?  Seriously. Let’s look at the list.

Johnson.
May
Cameron
Cameron clegg alliance.
Brown
Blair
Major
Thatcher
Callahan
Wilson
Heath.

Left right or in between. Anyone and everyone can pick fault with every single government this country has had over the last 60 years. And every PM. And every opposition leader. Without fail.
And probably every single one before them.

[Branton Red]

Branton
As well argued as ever...

Still. At least you've stopped banging on about how the 2016 vote made it inevitable that the UK had to leave the SM and CU.

Only since you've run out of your increasingly desperate, illogical and pathetic arguments to the contrary for me to bat away

(It was only the SM I was referring to not the CU)

[BillyStubbsTears]

Branton.

I'm not sure how you come to the conclusion that I was being desperate and illogical.

I've simply pointed out that the Brexit vote asked whether the UK should leave the EU and you said that meant by definition leaving the SM. But the UK didn't leave the SM. GB did. And the vote never asked if GB should leave the EU or SM, but not the UK.

How on earth is it illogical to point out an objective fact?

[wilts rover]

(a) I think he is trying to appeal to people who are never going to vote for him - (b) but I guess its up to the people who he is trying to appeal to comment on that.

(a) I disagree this is a response to Labour's underwhelming performance in 'red wall' areas in the local elections, the Wakefield by-election not seeing as big a swing as the Lib Dems got in Tiverton and Labour's inability to gain clear ground in the polls. All despite the huge unpopularity of the PM following partygate.

I.e. it's an attempt to win back support from former Labour voters who voted for Brexit esp those in marginal red wall seats. So people like me.

No, how can it be aimed at you as you voted Labour anyway. He hasn't done this to make you feel better about voting for him!

He is trying to change people's minds. There are plenty of ex-Labour Brexiteers on here who have said they will never vote for Labour again under Starmer because of his stance on Brexit in 2019 - I doubt this has changed their minds.

Still they must have focused grouped it in those seats, so good luck to him.

[BillyStubbsTears]

NR.
I agree that every incoming PM faces serious problems. That's inevitable. I don't agree that each one necessarily inherits a poisoned chalice.

Thatcher and Blair both came to power at a time that the other party had run out of steam and descended into internal fighting for the best part of a decade. And in both cases, the background political environment had moved towards them.

Cameron didn't inherit a poisoned chalice. He made his own by insisting on Austerity which led to the rise of UKIP, and forced him into the Brexit vote.

Even Wilson had a decent inheritance in that the Tories were old and tired and new ideas were needed. He didn't make a fantastic job of it, but that wasn't inevitable.

Callaghan, Major, Brown and May were always going to struggle, given how economics and politics were moving. But it's not always the way.

I suspect if Labour do win in 24 (and I'd put that at 50/50) they are going to cop the blame for Brexit not working. Whereas if the Tories win, they'll have no excuse when the inevitable problems become undeniable. They can blame COVID and Ukraine and inflation for a few years. But not for 10 or 15.

[SydneyRover]

As it is it's all Labour and the civil service's fault anyway

[wilts rover]

Bigger things going on atm but I thought this was interesting.

More people support Starmer's Brexit policy than don't. And more Tory voters than Labour voters support it:

https://twitter.com/YouGov/status/1544325156079865856

[drfchound]

Bigger things going on atm but I thought this was interesting.

More people support Starmer's Brexit policy than don't. And more Tory voters than Labour voters support it:

https://twitter.com/YouGov/status/1544325156079865856

I touched on this earlier wilts.
I am wondering whether some of our prominent Labour supporters who are avid remainers will still vote Labour at the next GE.

[wilts rover]

Some of them have already said they will hound, at least one has been arguing that this is the right policy.

I am in a safe Tory seat so doesnt really matter who I vote for - unless one of the parties looked as though they might challenge then I would vote tactically.

[Branton Red]

Branton.

I'm not sure how you come to the conclusion that I was being desperate and illogical.

I've simply pointed out that the Brexit vote asked whether the UK should leave the EU and you said that meant by definition leaving the SM. But the UK didn't leave the SM. GB did. And the vote never asked if GB should leave the EU or SM, but not the UK.

How on earth is it illogical to point out an objective fact?

I give evidence of the voting public clearly being told before the referendum that a leave vote would include leaving the SM.

You counter by suggesting the vote gave no such mandate because of something that happened after the vote.

Democracy has many advantages but clairvoyancy of the electorate is not one of them.

Perhaps, if you don't want to be accused of being illogical, you should make points that don't defy basic laws of physics.

Still. Well argued as ever.....

[BillyStubbsTears]

Branton

"I give evidence of the voting public clearly being told before the referendum that a leave vote would include leaving the SM."

Yes. I know you did. And the ballot paper only mentioned the UK's relationship to the EU.

But the UK didn't leave the SM did it? A political choice was made on that issue with no reference to what the Leave vote meant.

Which was my entire point all along. The vote tied no hands. Never did. Never could. How it was interpreted was a matter of political choice.

"You counter by suggesting the vote gave no such mandate because of something that happened after the vote."

I honestly haven't got a Scooby what you are on about here. I'm saying the vote clearly gave no mandate for the UK to leave the SM, for the blindingly obvious reason that the UK didn't leave the SM.

[BillyStubbsTears]

All you Brexiters who were so chuffed when Johnson Got Brexit Done.

Grab your popcorn. Mordaunt is going to Get Brexit Re-done.

https://mobile.twitter.com/PennyMordaunt/status/1548593906257989633

[Sprotyrover]

All you Brexiters who were so chuffed when Johnson Got Brexit Done.

Grab your popcorn. Mordaunt is going to Get Brexit Re-done.

https://mobile.twitter.com/PennyMordaunt/status/1548593906257989633

Well Mordant went West, now let's get on with the Great Push back,
All of you Leftie elitist green socialists who actually don't speak for
At least 95% of the Population need to take a long hard look at yourselves and then get some electro therapy , Brexit is probably going to go down in history as the best thing any country on this planet ever did!
A Bunch of Left wing Greenie Coffee Aunties trying to force 300 million plus people into poverty and deprivation with their 'Nanny
state idealism'.
If you want an example look at some recent posts by the 'Chartists!"
On this thread.
Germany facing a bleak future as their Greenie govt closed down Nuclear energy, "we will be ok with Solar and Wind"!, they said!
What a load of hot air, the Dutch Nanny state elite trying to force their farmers into reducing their Carbon foot print to the point that their farms will be un profitable! By the way The Netherlands is a world super power in relation to food exports ranking 2,behind the United States. Just think of the long term consequences of that sort of policy.
By the way It's actually ok not to give two hoots about Transgender,
Most of us dont' ! no you are not a Nazi if you display your National flag on your social media account!, Yes it ok to worry about immigration and the effect it will have on you and your children and children's children,most of us do!
The 'Great push back has begun' I wouldn't slash your wrists over Brexit, quite a few other countries will be leaving the EU in the future.

[normal rules]

NR.
I agree that every incoming PM faces serious problems. That's inevitable. I don't agree that each one necessarily inherits a poisoned chalice.

Thatcher and Blair both came to power at a time that the other party had run out of steam and descended into internal fighting for the best part of a decade. And in both cases, the background political environment had moved towards them.

Cameron didn't inherit a poisoned chalice. He made his own by insisting on Austerity which led to the rise of UKIP, and forced him into the Brexit vote.

Even Wilson had a decent inheritance in that the Tories were old and tired and new ideas were needed. He didn't make a fantastic job of it, but that wasn't inevitable.

Callaghan, Major, Brown and May were always going to struggle, given how economics and politics were moving. But it's not always the way.

I suspect if Labour do win in 24 (and I'd put that at 50/50) they are going to cop the blame for Brexit not working. Whereas if the Tories win, they'll have no excuse when the inevitable problems become undeniable. They can blame COVID and Ukraine and inflation for a few years. But not for 10 or 15.

I’m not suggesting all of the above govts inherited a poisoned chalice. I suggest the the governance has either become, or developed into one.
The next pm is inheriting a crock a sure.
And on the subject of a rejoin referendum, if, god forbid that were even to be tabled by the Labour Party, then that would be the end of them as a political entity imo.
64% of lower and upper working class people who voted in the ref chose to leave.
(Statista.com) that’s a lot of Labour voters potentially.
Corbyn sat on the fence over Brexit and that was a large part of his demise.
It would be a very brave and stupid Labour PM who pushes a rejoin agenda.
As has been suggested, in 10 -15 years the EU membership won’t look like it does now.

[tommy toes]

I see many of those who wanted a hard border with France are now complaining and angry that we've got a hard border with France.

[Not Now Kato]

I see many of those who wanted a hard border with France are now complaining and angry that we've got a hard border with France.

Yep, and most of them would rather follow the MSM and Tories and blame it all on France than face the truth!
 
https://twitter.com/bmay/status/1551464675711324160?s=21&t=6j1H57IodnHQqcWk8P9RsQ

[selby]

  Kato, the Brexit deniers, the British haters, and the Irish are being used as useful idiots by the EU, and are that intelligent they don't know it.