Brexit Dividend

[BigH]

Forget all the nonsense about lower taxation, new freedoms, trading deals, control over immigration and the rest.

The burning question is when are we going to get proper light bulbs back? I thought this was as much a priority as blue passports  and pint glasses with crowns on but unless I'm missing something it's not happened yet. Why?

I could forgive most of the rest of it but this...

[wilts rover]

We got to scrap the EU clean water initive so we could fill up our rivers and beaches with sewage again. What more do you want? Some people are never happy...

[selby]

  Job vacancies in the banking sector in London have risen sharply since 2016, The pack of lies about 100000 jobs being lost in the sector bandied about by remainer's before the 2016 vote has been exposed as just that, a pack of lies.

[aidanstu]

  Job vacancies in the banking sector in London have risen sharply since 2016, The pack of lies about 100000 jobs being lost in the sector bandied about by remainer's before the 2016 vote has been exposed as just that, a pack of lies.

Great only 7500 jobs in the London finance industry lost since Brexit. Amazing!!

Oh and if you read the article things aren’t likely to stay quite that rosey.

https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2022-01-17/london-bankers-your-jobs-and-bonuses-look-safe-for-now

[aidanstu]

Forget all the nonsense about lower taxation, new freedoms, trading deals, control over immigration and the rest.

The burning question is when are we going to get proper light bulbs back? I thought this was as much a priority as blue passports  and pint glasses with crowns on but unless I'm missing something it's not happened yet. Why?

I could forgive most of the rest of it but this...

https://uk.finance.yahoo.com/news/european-markets-fall-ftse-dax-cac-as-uk-wage-growth-wiped-out-by-inflation-094416773.html

Do all dividends pay this well?

[Sprotyrover]

Hey we are not the only country feeling inflation check out Germany!

[aidanstu]

Hey we are not the only country feeling inflation check out Germany!

So is your point that neither side benefited from Brexit?

[BillyStubbsTears]

Aidan.

That's the thing with the Brexit Death Cult. It doesn't matter if we don't do well, as long as the other side loses.

[aidanstu]

Sorry state of affairs isn’t it?

[selby]

  Billy, the biggest difference has been the build up of ill feeling by the EU towards this country, that they have made public by stating the obvious on numerous occasions and openly saying also publicly that we must suffer to stop other nations from following our lead in leaving.
  It is not the people of the EU that want a trade war, or the people of the UK wanting the same.
  But they are entrenching the British people that would come out in any further vote about rejoining, in fact like me who voted to stay in in 2016, a lot of them and I wouldn't give them the smell off my backside in any future negotiations, and the first thing we should do is cancel all the thousand troops we are sending over there to the Ukraine.  Let them look after themselves, they have lived long enough on the backs of mainly the USA and partly off us.
  Its time to treat them the same way they like to and have us and give them a big F*** OFF pill.

[SydneyRover]

  Billy, the biggest difference has been the build up of ill feeling by the EU towards this country, that they have made public by stating the obvious on numerous occasions and openly saying also publicly that we must suffer to stop other nations from following our lead in leaving.
  It is not the people of the EU that want a trade war, or the people of the UK wanting the same.
  But they are entrenching the British people that would come out in any further vote about rejoining, in fact like me who voted to stay in in 2016, a lot of them and I wouldn't give them the smell off my backside in any future negotiations, and the first thing we should do is cancel all the thousand troops we are sending over there to the Ukraine.  Let them look after themselves, they have lived long enough on the backs of mainly the USA and partly off us.
  Its time to treat them the same way they like to and have us and give them a big F*** OFF pill.

Was brexit a party or a work do?

[selby]

  It could be a wake for the likes of you Syd.

[SydneyRover]

Or another sleep for yourself selby

[selby]

  Better than crying for six years like you, get over it we are out of wipes.

[SydneyRover]

Still not drinking then?

[Branton Red]

Not through a 'light bulb' moment more enlightenment on a very slow acting dimmer switch but the majority of the population have come to the conclusion that this was all a fuss over nothing. The divisiveness, the arguments, the falling outs, the nastiness - none of it was worth a hill of beans.

We've had Brexit but we have not had as a result: a recession; any discernible increase in unemployment; any mass abandonment of the country by big companies; and we did get a comprehensive free trade deal with the EU.

Yes there was a substantial fall in investment and the stock market (a bas**rd if you happened to be retiring on an annuity back in 2016) in the 6 months immediately after the vote, but this was due to sentiment - a reaction to the remorseless negativity of the Remain campaign and it's high profile backers not the fundamental nature of Brexit itself, both have since rebounded.

Yet we have regained sovereignty and our individual and collective democratic rights over a wide range of issues which is fundamentally what Brexit was about.

You'd have to go a long way to find a rational, independently-minded person in favour of us rejoining the EU. Probably sadly to Westminster and those politicians and civil servants who've found the implementation of their political agendas and/or political ambitions cut short by Brexit.

[aidanstu]

Not through a 'light bulb' moment more enlightenment on a very slow acting dimmer switch but the majority of the population have come to the conclusion that this was all a fuss over nothing. The divisiveness, the arguments, the falling outs, the nastiness - none of it was worth a hill of beans.

We've had Brexit but we have not had as a result: a recession; any discernible increase in unemployment; any mass abandonment of the country by big companies; and we did get a comprehensive free trade deal with the EU.

You'd have to go a long way to find a rational, independently-minded person in favour of us rejoining the EU. Probably sadly to Westminster and those politicians and civil servants who've found the implementation of their political agendas and/or political ambitions cut short by Brexit.

Whilst that was very articulately put it is almost all absolute rubbish; read the trade deal and you will see that we don’t have sovereignty or what could really be considered anything like a “free trade deal”. The EU have over a barrel and now we have no say within The EU. Brilliant.

https://www.traverssmith.com/knowledge/knowledge-container/a-business-friendly-guide-to-the-uk-eu-brexit-trade-deal/#GTQAROO



We now have supply chain issues, not enough workers to fulfil certain sectors; quite evidently the care and logistic professions, we have lost 7500 jobs from the financial industry in London alone too.

You are clearly not involved in transportation or any industry where trade/ services is required with the EU.

Despite all the promises we remain aligned to the Human Rights Act and almost all other laws. We already had the ability to deviate on a number of other laws.

People largely wanted to leave because of immigration; the EU only ever accounted for 30% of this; nobody was “sent back” and the government are all ready talking of allowing migration from the EU again to fill the skills gap.



Two questions for you; what in real terms has been gained from”leaving” ?and was this the Brexit you really voted for?

Whilst there were clearly issues with the EU that needed fixing we are nowhere near better off having left. Yours is a blinkered view fuelled by right wing media. The reality is, as usual, very, very different.

[big fat yorkshire pudding]

You have to be a bit of an idiot to link brexit and inflation.

[SydneyRover]

So you don't think the labour shortages forcing up wages without efficiency gains will add to inflation pud?

[drfchound]

So you don't think the labour shortages forcing up wages without efficiency gains will add to inflation pud?

Do you think it will do SR.

[big fat yorkshire pudding]

So you don't think the labour shortages forcing up wages without efficiency gains will add to inflation pud?

A slight effect perhaps but it's minimal and short term regardless.

The biggest causes on inflation are shipping, logistics and energy issues, none of which are predominantly brexit related but mostly outside of that.

Do you think wage rises are a good thing or not?  Yesterday you said for example nurses should be paid for, now you question of pay rises without efficiency are a good thing? What's your actual thought on it? Pay rises or not?

[SydneyRover]

Are the brexit induced labour shortages over pud? what is a slight effect, can you put an approx figure on it

[selby]

  Stop sweating and Wriggling Syd, somebody else has asked you a question to be answered with questions of your own, have you no credibility man? You are a man aren't you and not a robot? just asking?

[drfchound]

  Stop sweating and Wriggling Syd, somebody else has asked you a question to be answered with questions of your own, have you no credibility man? You are a man aren't you and not a robot? just asking?

He doesn’t do answers selby.

[big fat yorkshire pudding]

Are the brexit induced labour shortages over pud? what is a slight effect, can you put an approx figure on it

Nope, if I could I'd get paid far more than I do currently.  In the business I work it is far away from being even a conversation in reality, the other things much more important.

Now can you answer the question I asked?

[selby]

  I have noticed over the tears the last six years Hound.

[Branton Red]

Hi Aidan thanks for a spirited response. Please don't be offended as I articulately pull it deservedly apart piece by piece as it is riddled with error and false assumptions.

Firstly I'm not right wing. Probably fairly typical of Donny I'm socially (small c) conservative, strongly pro-democracy, patriotic and strongly left wing economically. I do view right wing media occasionally but not regularly - I like/enjoy taking in a broad range of opinion from all sides to inform and to ensure I'm not stuck in an echo chamber. Any opinions I give are my own duly considered and I am not blinkered in the least.

You say I speak 'absolute rubbish' yet firstly the majority of what I stated is fact (the 2nd, 4th and 1st half of the 3rd paragraph) and secondly in spite giving this opinion you singularly fail to directly challenge anything I wrote.

First error the referendum was a vote to leave the European Union not the European Convention on Human Rights and so your point on the Human Rights Act is totally invalid.

The EU-UK trade deal deals with trade from the UK to EU and vice versa. Of course rules are in place through it relating to e.g. standards for UK imports into the EU. This is the same as any free trade deal around the world. These rules do not constitute a reduction in sovereignty as the deal was agreed by and could be revoked by a democratically elected Government. It does not significantly impact what domestic rules we choose to implement - many of which previously came under the auspices of the EU.

2 examples. 1) We can now set our on Sales Tax rates (VAT) - much restricted under EU rules. This is both a massive tax earner and gives the UK Government opportunities to solve societal issues (e.g. removing VAT on fuel, reducing obesity, giving a level playing field to the high street). 2) Replacement of the Common Agricultural policy to one which rewards more sustainable farming, public-good projects. Given farm subsidies accounted for a huge % of EU spend and farmland accounts for c. 75% of UK land this is no small issue. Just 2 of many areas of domestic law making shifted from the EU into our hands.

So in answer to your questions there are huge opportunities for us as a country through our democratically elected governments to make real positive differences thanks to regained areas of lawmaking - and that opportunity to influence these laws through the ballot box is exactly the Brexit I voted for.

Re supply chain issues I don't doubt some exist partly due to Brexit but these would appear from my retail experience to be being overcome - where are the news reports showing row on row of empty shelves in the supermarkets? All told a minor issue the market will by necessity resolve.

With many 'blame Brexit' stories farmed out by the left wing press and believed unquestionably by the blinkered there is a real problem with 'cause and effect'. The labour shortages you highlight are mainly due to Covid and foreign workers returning home/not being willing to move to the UK understandably. It is a misconception that Brexit has stopped the UK from using immigration to fill skills gaps.

On your 'nobody has been sent back' barb where was 'sending people back' included in Leave campaigning? Personally immigration levels are not a major issue for me (hence why I didn't even mention the topic in my initial post) so if that 'sent back' comment is aimed at me it is both misdirected and deeply insulting - I am not Alf bleeding Garnett.

I correctly state there has been no discernible increase in UK-wide unemployment due to Brexit your reply is that 7,500 jobs have been lost in the City. 7,500 is 0.01% of the UK population.

"We are nowhere near better off" after Brexit economically correct my point initial point being for the majority Brexit has made very little difference; democratically we are much better off as explained earlier.

"The reality is very, very different [from what I stated]" yet what I stated, as explained previously was largely fact, what you've stated to emphasise things are "very, very different" are either from a very narrow part of society and/or just plain wrong again as previously explained.

Still had least you haven't proved the 1st sentence of my final paragraph on my initial post to be inaccurate.

[SydneyRover]

Are the brexit induced labour shortages over pud? what is a slight effect, can you put an approx figure on it

Nope, if I could I'd get paid far more than I do currently.  In the business I work it is far away from being even a conversation in reality, the other things much more important.

Now can you answer the question I asked?

''You have to be a bit of an idiot to link brexit and inflation''

''UK faces slow growth, high inflation after pandemic and Brexit - NIESR''

''LONDON, Nov 9 (Reuters) - Britain's economy risks stagnation and sticky inflation over the coming years due to persistent supply-chain bottlenecks and headwinds from Brexit, the National Institute of Economic and Social Research (NIESR) think tank warned on Tuesday.

Inflation is on course to hit around 5% next year, while Britain's economy looks set to grow by only 1.7% in 2023 and 1.3% in 2024 after rebounding by 6.9% in 2021 and 4.7% in 2022 after the COVID-19 pandemic, NIESR said''

https://www.reuters.com/world/uk/uks-niesr-warns-stagnation-risk-supply-chain-problems-2021-11-09/

[SydneyRover]

''What is the UK's inflation rate and why is the cost of living going up?''

The main reason is the rising global price of energy. This has meant higher energy and transport bills for businesses, many of whom pass on the extra costs to customers.

Supply problems and higher shipping costs also continue to hurt businesses.

Next, the High Street retailer, has admitted its prices could rise by up to 6% this year to keep up with higher costs.

Staff shortages are a particular problem in the UK, due to Brexit and the pandemic, and are prompting some employers to raise wages.

However, this can itself contribute to inflation. Greggs, for instance, has raised the price of some foods in order to cover increased labour costs.

https://www.bbc.com/news/business-12196322#:~:text=The%20main%20reason%20is%20the,also%20continue%20to%20hurt%20businesses.

Not sure what you do pud but this is a good read

''Causes of Inflation''

''Inflation means there is a sustained increase in the price level. The main causes of inflation are either excess aggregate demand (AD) (economic growth too fast) or cost-push factors (supply-side factors)''

https://www.economicshelp.org/macroeconomics/inflation/causes-inflation/

[big fat yorkshire pudding]

Trying to teach someone with multiple qualifications in finance about inflation is probably not the wisest idea.

The problem with your points is they are conjecture. No links between cause and effect but theoretical points.

So to sum up as I said any brexit impact on labour was minimal and short term (if it was significant it would have happened long ago), granted some industries would be more adversely affected than others.

What you won't see is the full effect at the time, it takes time for the impact of the significant energy and shipping issues to drip through in to prices, that's now starting to bite, you don't see the impact directly when it happens there's always a delay.  They dwarf any wage inflation totally.  The problem on wages is that the costs hitting consumers will lead to demands from employees for pay rises.  That won't be your lower paid types getting the rises but the industries where supply of workers is limited.

As an aside, don't trust every source you read on what the cause of financial results changes actually are.  The narrative is built to often suit the story they want to tell not always the actual story on the ground so you won't always get an accurate reflection and brexit is a very very easy excuse (which pretty much every business has used).