Brexit Dividend

[drfchound]

Serious question Glyn, would the EU have allowed us to buy certain things from other countries while we were members?

Such as?

Glyn, don’t do a Sydney on me.
It was a genuine question that I asked without any undertones.
Because of you being an expert in this area I thought you might know the answer.
It doesn’t matter if you don’t want to answer though.

[Glyn_Wigley]

Serious question Glyn, would the EU have allowed us to buy certain things from other countries while we were members?

Such as?

Glyn, don’t do a Sydney on me.
It was a genuine question that I asked without any undertones.
Because of you being an expert in this area I thought you might know the answer.
It doesn’t matter if you don’t want to answer though.

I'm not trying to not answer, but it's too broad a question. I'm not aware of anything the EU prohibited anyone in the UK from importing but if you know of something, that's why I asked.

[drfchound]

Serious question Glyn, would the EU have allowed us to buy certain things from other countries while we were members?

Such as?

Glyn, don’t do a Sydney on me.
It was a genuine question that I asked without any undertones.
Because of you being an expert in this area I thought you might know the answer.
It doesn’t matter if you don’t want to answer though.

I'm not trying to not answer, but it's too broad a question. I'm not aware of anything the EU prohibited anyone in the UK from importing but if you know of something, that's why I asked.

I don’t know, which is also why I asked, but thought there might be, perhaps due to silly rules like determining the shape of bananas that were allowed to be sold in our shops, or wonky veg.

[Glyn_Wigley]

Serious question Glyn, would the EU have allowed us to buy certain things from other countries while we were members?

Such as?

Glyn, don’t do a Sydney on me.
It was a genuine question that I asked without any undertones.
Because of you being an expert in this area I thought you might know the answer.
It doesn’t matter if you don’t want to answer though.

I'm not trying to not answer, but it's too broad a question. I'm not aware of anything the EU prohibited anyone in the UK from importing but if you know of something, that's why I asked.

I don’t know, which is also why I asked, but thought there might be, perhaps due to silly rules like determining the shape of bananas that were allowed to be sold in our shops, or wonky veg.

The banana rules etc. are purely grading systems adopted throughout the EU to make it easier for buyers to know what standard of produce they're buying - a good idea, surely? They've never been a method of 'banning' anything, that was the sort of bullshit Boris was peddling in the Telegraph in the past.

[Branton Red]

Branton, my numbers come from the OBR:

https://obr.uk/forecasts-in-depth/the-economy-forecast/brexit-analysis/#assumptions

I agree that there hasn't been a cliff-edge descent into the apocalypse. More a case of gradual descent into the wilderness perhaps?

Incidentally, the OBR reckon that Covid will hit GDP by 2%. The financial crisis in 2008 saw GDP hit by 6% (according to the Bank of England). So the Brexit 'hit' is expected to be somewhere between Covid and the 2008 financial crisis.

Thanks we're slightly at cross-purposes as the OBR are saying a 4% fall overall due to Brexit i.e. to date plus into the future. This makes my 2% fall to the end of 2019 look reasonable I think. Further they state 2/5ths of their 4% (i.e. 1.6%) drop is due to reduced investment due to uncertainty. As the majority of this 1.6% would be front-loaded again a 2% fall to 31/12/19 looks fair plus my explanation that the majority of the reduction was due to the drop in investment late 2016/early 2017 is validated.

The rest of their estimated fall (2.4%) is just that an estimate. Forgive me if I cast doubt on this. Economic predictions are notoriously inaccurate and UK Governmental economic predictions on Brexit (as you say no cliff-edge descent into apocalypse) have been wildly wrong previously. Their estimate is based on an assumption that trade with the EU will fall 15% versus staying in the EU which seems to me an exaggeration - time will tell.

Regardless if as I state few people will have noticed much difference to their lives of a 2% drop in 3.5 years they'll notice a further 2% drop over the longer term into perpetuity even less.

I disagree with you btw there was a cliff edge as warned just a much smaller one leading to a shallowly inclined lagoon rather than a sheer drop leading to a sharply inclined beach into rough seas, recession and mass unemployment.

The overall cost to the economy of Brexit may or may not (I still think not) be comparable to Covid/2008 crash but the latter 2 did involve a cliff edge nosedive in economic output hence the widespread damage to business' and unemployment (prevented largely with Covid due to the Furlough scheme) which we haven't seen with Brexit.

[drfchound]

Serious question Glyn, would the EU have allowed us to buy certain things from other countries while we were members?

Such as?

Glyn, don’t do a Sydney on me.
It was a genuine question that I asked without any undertones.
Because of you being an expert in this area I thought you might know the answer.
It doesn’t matter if you don’t want to answer though.

I'm not trying to not answer, but it's too broad a question. I'm not aware of anything the EU prohibited anyone in the UK from importing but if you know of something, that's why I asked.

I don’t know, which is also why I asked, but thought there might be, perhaps due to silly rules like determining the shape of bananas that were allowed to be sold in our shops, or wonky veg.

The banana rules etc. are purely grading systems adopted throughout the EU to make it easier for buyers to know what standard of produce they're buying - a good idea, surely? They've never been a method of 'banning' anything, that was the sort of bullshit Boris was peddling in the Telegraph in the past.

Thanks.

[Branton Red]

Branton.

I'm interested in what numbers you base your 2% contraction of the economy on.

Hi Billy

Certainly. A=Actual growth; E=Estimate. 2016: A=1.7,E=2.2; 2017: A=1.7,E=2.6; 2018: A=1.3,E=2.0; 2019: A=1.4,E=1.6.

Mainly tracking Germany, France and Italy but also referring to EU as a whole and the rest of the G7. In each year my estimate keeps UK growth at least equal highest against Germany,France,Italy.

[SydneyRover]

So nothing good Branton, which is what everyone is looking for.

[SydneyRover]

So not as bad as some were predicting and blue passports is the new good?

Has it been worth it, splitting the country, the loss of good trading conditions with the EU, schengen, risk of trashing the GFA, loss of jobs, £billions lost, countless co-operative agreements from education to safety ..........................

[Branton Red]

Hi Sydney only a fool would claim there has been no economic cost to Brexit to date. What my previous more detailed post in reply to BigH is explaining is my take on why Brexit did not lead to the cliff edge recession and mass unemployment predicted during the referendum campaign by Remain. Backed up by data analysis which appears to correspond to OBR analysis too.

Therefore the societal cost of Brexit in terms of company liquidations and unemployment has been much lower than predicted.

Equally only a fool would claim that there isn't some benefit to Brexit in terms of returned lawmaking powers to our democratically elected Government and hence an increase in our democratic rights.

The price we have paid to regain these democratic rights has been much lower than we were warned.

PS you still haven't answered my question: Is Brexit a significant factor in currently increasing inflation?

[SydneyRover]

I don't remember using the word significant in my argument Branton, you can correct me but I thought the original debate was whether brexit had caused any inflation?

[drfchound]

The original question in the OP was when are we going to get proper light bulbs back.
And Sydney, you didn’t use the word significant, Branton did.
Now are you going to answer his question.

[SydneyRover]

I don't remember using the word significant in my argument Branton, you can correct me but I thought the original debate was whether brexit had caused any inflation?

Added to the list, what are the democratic rights gained and were they worth it?

[drfchound]

The man with no answers.

[BillyStubbsTears]

Branton, my numbers come from the OBR:

https://obr.uk/forecasts-in-depth/the-economy-forecast/brexit-analysis/#assumptions

I agree that there hasn't been a cliff-edge descent into the apocalypse. More a case of gradual descent into the wilderness perhaps?

Incidentally, the OBR reckon that Covid will hit GDP by 2%. The financial crisis in 2008 saw GDP hit by 6% (according to the Bank of England). So the Brexit 'hit' is expected to be somewhere between Covid and the 2008 financial crisis.

Thanks we're slightly at cross-purposes as the OBR are saying a 4% fall overall due to Brexit i.e. to date plus into the future. This makes my 2% fall to the end of 2019 look reasonable I think. Further they state 2/5ths of their 4% (i.e. 1.6%) drop is due to reduced investment due to uncertainty. As the majority of this 1.6% would be front-loaded again a 2% fall to 31/12/19 looks fair plus my explanation that the majority of the reduction was due to the drop in investment late 2016/early 2017 is validated.

The rest of their estimated fall (2.4%) is just that an estimate. Forgive me if I cast doubt on this. Economic predictions are notoriously inaccurate and UK Governmental economic predictions on Brexit (as you say no cliff-edge descent into apocalypse) have been wildly wrong previously. Their estimate is based on an assumption that trade with the EU will fall 15% versus staying in the EU which seems to me an exaggeration - time will tell.

Regardless if as I state few people will have noticed much difference to their lives of a 2% drop in 3.5 years they'll notice a further 2% drop over the longer term into perpetuity even less.

I disagree with you btw there was a cliff edge as warned just a much smaller one leading to a shallowly inclined lagoon rather than a sheer drop leading to a sharply inclined beach into rough seas, recession and mass unemployment.

The overall cost to the economy of Brexit may or may not (I still think not) be comparable to Covid/2008 crash but the latter 2 did involve a cliff edge nosedive in economic output hence the widespread damage to business' and unemployment (prevented largely with Covid due to the Furlough scheme) which we haven't seen with Brexit.

With respect Branton, you're making a classic error here.

You dismiss a 2% or 4% drop in GDP, but don't seem to realise that GDP is a rate.

It's the amount we produce PER YEAR.

So yes, producing 2% less in Year 1 might not be noticed by many folk.

But after 10 years, the total amount that you have lost amounts to 1.02^10 - 1, or 22% of GDP. That's roughly £400bn in lost economic activity over a decade. Enough to fund the construction of about 650 infirmaries.

So yes, you don't notice the loss over 1 year. But you damn well do over ten or twenty years, when you look round and see your infrastructure not being maintained, and you wonder why the Germans and Dutch and French all seem to have far higher standards of living than we do.

No-one sensible ever said there would be a cliff edge collapse due to Brexit (although there was an immediate and drastic reduction in economy growth, a surge in inflation due to the Pound collapsing, and 2 years of avoidable reduction in real wages).

The real disaster was always going to be the long, grinding reduction in our economic performance which one it's ly cones from choosing to make it much harder to do business with half a billion of the richest people in history, right on our doorstep.

 

[Sprotyrover]

Branton, my numbers come from the OBR:

https://obr.uk/forecasts-in-depth/the-economy-forecast/brexit-analysis/#assumptions

I agree that there hasn't been a cliff-edge descent into the apocalypse. More a case of gradual descent into the wilderness perhaps?

Incidentally, the OBR reckon that Covid will hit GDP by 2%. The financial crisis in 2008 saw GDP hit by 6% (according to the Bank of England). So the Brexit 'hit' is expected to be somewhere between Covid and the 2008 financial crisis.

Thanks we're slightly at cross-purposes as the OBR are saying a 4% fall overall due to Brexit i.e. to date plus into the future. This makes my 2% fall to the end of 2019 look reasonable I think. Further they state 2/5ths of their 4% (i.e. 1.6%) drop is due to reduced investment due to uncertainty. As the majority of this 1.6% would be front-loaded again a 2% fall to 31/12/19 looks fair plus my explanation that the majority of the reduction was due to the drop in investment late 2016/early 2017 is validated.

The rest of their estimated fall (2.4%) is just that an estimate. Forgive me if I cast doubt on this. Economic predictions are notoriously inaccurate and UK Governmental economic predictions on Brexit (as you say no cliff-edge descent into apocalypse) have been wildly wrong previously. Their estimate is based on an assumption that trade with the EU will fall 15% versus staying in the EU which seems to me an exaggeration - time will tell.

Regardless if as I state few people will have noticed much difference to their lives of a 2% drop in 3.5 years they'll notice a further 2% drop over the longer term into perpetuity even less.

I disagree with you btw there was a cliff edge as warned just a much smaller one leading to a shallowly inclined lagoon rather than a sheer drop leading to a sharply inclined beach into rough seas, recession and mass unemployment.

The overall cost to the economy of Brexit may or may not (I still think not) be comparable to Covid/2008 crash but the latter 2 did involve a cliff edge nosedive in economic output hence the widespread damage to business' and unemployment (prevented largely with Covid due to the Furlough scheme) which we haven't seen with Brexit

With respect Branton, you're making a classic error here.

You dismiss a 2% or 4% drop in GDP, but don't seem to realise that GDP is a rate.

It's the amount we produce PER YEAR.

So yes, producing 2% less in Year 1 might not be noticed by many folk.

But after 10 years, the total amount that you have lost amounts to 1.02^10 - 1, or 22% of GDP. That's roughly £400bn in lost economic activity over a decade. Enough to fund the construction of about 650 infirmaries.

So yes, you don't notice the loss over 1 year. But you damn well do over ten or twenty years, when you look round and see your infrastructure not being maintained, and you wonder why the Germans and Dutch and French all seem to have far higher standards of living than we do.

No-one sensible ever said there would be a cliff edge collapse due to Brexit (although there was an immediate and drastic reduction in economy growth, a surge in inflation due to the Pound collapsing, and 2 years of avoidable reduction in real wages).

The real disaster was always going to be the long, grinding reduction in our economic performance which one it's ly cones from choosing to make it much harder to do business with half a billion of the richest people in history, right on our doorstep.

 

Oh dear Billy the BBC evening news tonight has stated that figures show that the UK economy will grow slower than forecast next year but it is still the fastest growing G7 economy as it was last year.put that in your macroeconomic pipe dream and smoke it!

[BillyStubbsTears]

Sproty.

A friendly word of advice. Go and look up how much GDP shrank in the G7 countries due to COVID.

Then stop and have a think.

Then get back to me.

[Sprotyrover]

Sproty.

A friendly word of advice. Go and look up how much GDP shrank in the G7 countries due to COVID.

Then stop and have a think.

Then get back to me.

Ha you are the twin brother of slimy Sydders!

[SydneyRover]

nothing surprises me about your good self sprot

[BillyStubbsTears]

Just a suggestion Sproty. You might see the bigger picture. If you really want to.

[normal rules]

The IMF says uk economy will grow slowly in 2022 but will still be the fastest growing in the G7

[BillyStubbsTears]

That's a prediction that may or may not come to pass NR. The fact is that in the last quarter, our GDP growth was 5th out of 7 in the G7.

And my point to Sproty, which he doesn't seem to want to engage with, is that we had the worst hit to GDP of any country in the G7 in 2020, due to COVID. So just by natural rebound, you'd expect us to have growth at the higher end as the COVID restrictions were relaxed. In those circumstances, idly shouting "We've got the highest growth rate!" as well as being factually untrue at the moment, is pointless. It's a bit like your man running the first 5 miles of a marathon really slowly, being 2 miles behind the leaders, then sprinting for a bit and you shouting "Look at him! He's the fastest in the race!"

[drfchound]

“That’s a prediction that may or may not come to pass”

Unbelievable.
How many times have predictions been put on here by bst and if anyone challenged, they were put down.

[big fat yorkshire pudding]

Shipping costs have gone up to every country in the world Glyn, come off it< and we should make any difference with the EU as small as possible by cutting trade with them as much as possible and replacing it with trade from the rest of the world.
 Let them have as many food and wine mountains as they can.

Yeah.

Because the basic shipping costs from Chile and New Zealand will be lower that those from France won't they?

I do wonder how some people manage to wipe their arses without help.

Think bigger picture and this applies to Glyn aswell.  Lots of things are cheaper to obtain from those countries thus negating that higher freight cost as I'm sure you are aware.  If you import from Asia etc you'll know how much that cost has increased all around the world albeit that will and can depend how long your contracts are tied up (I've worked in business with 10 year+ shipping forward contracts).

In some cases it's actually made the UK and EU more competitive to UK business though where that price has increased.  My experience (and it's only mine so is limited to where I work) is that the brexit impact on imports and exports is very minimal to none, but I expect in smaller businesses than that which I work within will find that tougher.  A colleague of mine was delighted that they are filing a piece of information for the last time as now post brexit it won't be required after this period.  That is the case in some ways.

If things were cheaper to buy elsewhere people would already have been buying them since before Brexit.

You are missing the cause and effect link entirely. There are lots of variables that move alongside brexit.  What was cheaper from outside the EU 6 months ago may not be now for example, the world economy is far more volatile than attributing each point to brexit.

[Branton Red]

With respect Branton, you're making a classic error here.

You dismiss a 2% or 4% drop in GDP, but don't seem to realise that GDP is a rate.

It's the amount we produce PER YEAR.

So yes, producing 2% less in Year 1 might not be noticed by many folk.

But after 10 years, the total amount that you have lost amounts to 1.02^10 - 1, or 22% of GDP. That's roughly £400bn in lost economic activity over a decade. Enough to fund the construction of about 650 infirmaries.

So yes, you don't notice the loss over 1 year. But you damn well do over ten or twenty years, when you look round and see your infrastructure not being maintained, and you wonder why the Germans and Dutch and French all seem to have far higher standards of living than we do.

No-one sensible ever said there would be a cliff edge collapse due to Brexit (although there was an immediate and drastic reduction in economy growth, a surge in inflation due to the Pound collapsing, and 2 years of avoidable reduction in real wages).

The real disaster was always going to be the long, grinding reduction in our economic performance which one it's ly cones from choosing to make it much harder to do business with half a billion of the richest people in history, right on our doorstep.

Billy my premise is: the majority of people will not have noticed a personal economic impact due to Brexit. To test this requires context.

The UK is a massive economy, extrapolate the GDP impact of any economic decision over a long enough time frame and you can quote a £xxxbn change in output and imply emotively (and incorrectly) that with that money we could have built xxx hospitals. £400bn is a massive sum of money - but not once it's shared between 67m people over 11 years.

I've estimated a 2% fall in GDP up to 31/12/19 , which appears in line with the OBR, that is £9.87 per person per week over 3.5 years. Let's round it up to £10. £10 per week is the cost per person of Brexit. Taking the prediction on to 2029 (assuming Covid didn't happen and a steady rate of growth of 1.5%) gives £548m of lost GDP but that is still only £11.72 per person per week. Where is this 'real disaster'?

Why haven't people noticed this £10 per week fall (and won't notice the £11.72 per week fall going forward)?: -

1) For some an extra £10 per week would be a godsend for the majority it's not much - I spend 7 times that amount per week just travelling to work which is not unusual.
2) It's what's called an 'Opportunity Cost' i.e. not money lost but money people don't realise they might have had.
3) £10 is a 'mean' average. We know a small number of people have been impacted disproportionately by Brexit. Therefore for the majority the impact on them will be less than £10 per week i.e. the 'median' average will be below £10
4) GDP includes public spending i.e. money spent on our behalf by the Government (most years c. 25%). So only c. £7.50 per week has been lost from our pockets.
5) Post-2019 the fall is at an imperceptibly slow rate (my shallow beach after the small cliff analogy from earlier).

And no people are not going to notice whilst holidaying on the continent that the populace is spending £11.72 more per week than they are.

Neither will they notice countries having anywhere near an extra (or a relative equivalent of) £400bn wealth to us whether measured in hospitals, infrastructure or whatever as you imply. GDP does not measure the increase in a countries wealth in a year just what is spent. It doesn't consider what the money is spent on - in the West additional spending is often on consumables manufactured abroad which add nothing to wealth. GDP also doesn't include many things which do impact wealth i.e. a German stock exchange crash; French house price crash; or a trend for Dutch millionaires to retire to California.

In reality by 2019, in spite of Brexit, UK GDP growth was 0.8% ahead of Germany and only 0.1% behind France so let's not worry too much about our cost of living falling massively behind our European friends just yet.

Was George Osborne being insensible when he claimed Brexit could cause GDP to be 6% lower and 820,000 job losses within 2 years? www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-eu-referendum-36355564. Was everyone else who shared the Remain campaign platform with him and failed to debunk his predictions equally insensible? So the majority of Tory party MPs and practically all the parliamentary Labour party were insensible during the referendum campaign?

Or were they all misleading the public for political expediency?

[SydneyRover]

All the comparisons to other countries are just that, comparisons, what matters is what life for the average person would be like in the uk without brexit and not just the economy. Tell me what the new democratic freedoms feel like, how they have changed your life and was it all worth it Branton.

[normal rules]

The financial mechanism the uk became embroiled in over 40+ years, will take many years to detach from.
Anyone that thought that brexit benefits would be instant and noticeable are quite frankly, crackers. I fully expect it to take many, many years before benefits are realised.
That’s said, I feel the uk has had unbridled access to covid vaccines that we, as a country were pivotal in bringing to the world. We were free from the “EU group” for vaccine rollouts, and we are now starting to see the benefits of this way before other European Countries. We have, quite simply, led the way on tackling covid, without the need for the sort of draconian measures being imposed in Italy, Austria, France and Germany.

I expect someone will want to suppress my opinion in this.
Feel free.

[SydneyRover]

It's funny how brexit benefits are getting harder to define, less and less and further and further away.

[big fat yorkshire pudding]

It's funny how brexit benefits are getting harder to define, less and less and further and further away.

A bit like the huge end of the world cliff edge the remain camp provoked.  Both angles clearly worked the extremes, that's how campaigning is.  The middle ground is often the truth.

I just do not like using specific examples to promote a view without concrete proof of the linkages.  In truth we all know there's pros and cons to brexit there always was and each person had to weigh up that balance and how it matters to them.

[drfchound]

It's funny how brexit benefits are getting harder to define, less and less and further and further away.

LoL. Ironic choice of words.