The Great Escape

[Colemans Left Hook]

i watched the sky highlights for was it 2 and a half minutes - don't watch the efl prog haven't time

what i saw was a knackered No.19 (as donny ? pointed out) Seaman who ran as if his feet were "stuck to the floor"   
a very classy Norwich - spacially aware  player with good ball control and as i said vision who produced a premiership quality ball - to a center forward who as someone else said "took the ball in his stride" and scored a premiership quality goal.   

a Jamie Vardy style goal.

That gentle over the top ball is always a killer if a team has the right tool in the " toolkit"     

and this tool thankfully is not hired

so long as Griffiths stays fit we should be OK

[ColinDouglasHandshake]

Past stats don’t prove the outcome of future games.

Stats don’t account for luck, missed official’s calls, opponents having an off day, bad weather etc etc etc.

All that matters is we score at least one more than our opponent, more often than not, and out a shift in as much as possible.

It’s not about proving anything. It’s about applying a probability for an accurate to take place. That can be done pretty accurately. We’ve got about a 5% chance of staying up. It’s as simple as that. Maybe 1% inaccuracy either way, but that the maximum amount of tolerance we are talking.

Occurrences that have a fairly low chance of happening happen all the time, it won’t be a miracle if we stay up, just very unlikely.

I get this but only probability says that we have a 5% chance of staying up. When the actual real chance is unknown, because many variables can happen between now and the end of the season.

[IDM]

8 players arriving in the window represents a huge change to our squad.  Therefore a significant change in performances and results wouldn’t be miraculous, nor particularly improbable.

The last stats were mainly generated by our squad pre window, so that’s another huge spanner in the works.

Effort, cohesion and competitiveness are what will give us realistic hope of surviving the drop.

[sedwardsdrfc]

Agree i think it's hard to use past stats to gauge us right now with so many new players and a change in mentality. If our legs don't go and we can keep the intensity up, not to mention get some luck with injuries, we've got a decent chance imo.

Reality is we'll probably lose a few too many because of the lack of match fitness in the squad which is currently why we struggle to compete for 90min regularly.

[ColinDouglasHandshake]

8 players arriving in the window represents a huge change to our squad.  Therefore a significant change in performances and results wouldn’t be miraculous, nor particularly improbable.

The last stats were mainly generated by our squad pre window, so that’s another huge spanner in the works.

Effort, cohesion and competitiveness are what will give us realistic hope of surviving the drop.

Agree. There are also things to consider such as dropping off of form from our opponents and also injuries and suspensions to key players from opposition teams we are facing.

[Colemans Left Hook]

think i need to set someone two sets of homework  to (using the available stats at the time) explain

(a) how Rovers results "decayed" (my personal buzz word of the moment) when we were a distance clear to lose the Championship the other year

and (b) how stats predicted the "decay" in results again last season 
when the stats at the time said it was impossible


so let's introduce a new "buzz word"  volatility

it just so happens volatility (the way i am using the word) works both ways and Rovers improvement can become "cancerous" and spread through the team


have you never heard of Newtons Laws of volatile football results
 

  Newton’s first law: the law of  relegation
Newton’s first law states that if a team is at rest or moving at a constant speed in a straight line towards relegation, it will remain at rest or keep moving in a straight line towards relegation at constant speed unless it is acted upon by a force (a.k.a. new permanent signings or loanees)

[GazLaz]

Past stats don’t prove the outcome of future games.

Stats don’t account for luck, missed official’s calls, opponents having an off day, bad weather etc etc etc.

All that matters is we score at least one more than our opponent, more often than not, and out a shift in as much as possible.

It’s not about proving anything. It’s about applying a probability for an accurate to take place. That can be done pretty accurately. We’ve got about a 5% chance of staying up. It’s as simple as that. Maybe 1% inaccuracy either way, but that the maximum amount of tolerance we are talking.

Occurrences that have a fairly low chance of happening happen all the time, it won’t be a miracle if we stay up, just very unlikely.

I get this but only probability says that we have a 5% chance of staying up. When the actual real chance is unknown, because many variables can happen between now and the end of the season.

They are all factored in. You can’t argue with the maths unless you don’t understand it.

[ColinDouglasHandshake]

Probably the latter Gaz. 

[drfchound]

i watched the sky highlights for was it 2 and a half minutes - don't watch the efl prog haven't time

what i saw was a knackered No.19 (as donny ? pointed out) Seaman who ran as if his feet were "stuck to the floor"   
a very classy Norwich - spacially aware  player with good ball control and as i said vision who produced a premiership quality ball - to a center forward who as someone else said "took the ball in his stride" and scored a premiership quality goal.   

a Jamie Vardy style goal.

That gentle over the top ball is always a killer if a team has the right tool in the " toolkit"     

and this tool thankfully is not hired

so long as Griffiths stays fit we should be OK

It was myself who mentioned Seaman being unable to run back CLH.
He looked as though he was done for on the day.

[dickos1]

If we only have a 5% chance then that’s the same percent as Wigan and Burton last year and the two sides just above us this year.
If any bookies would take the bet id be lumping on

[BillyStubbsTears]

After 30 games last year, Burton were two points clear of the bottom 4 and Wigan were one point behind 5th bottom.

Those cases are not remotely comparable to our current position.

[Chris Black come back]

We’re f**ked yet we’ve just beaten the third and fourth placed sides away from home, including the side with the best home record in the league. We’ve also been totally humiliated by the side at the top of the league. We’ve got something, clearly. It’s just not brought out sufficiently regular to make the difference we need.

[ColinDouglasHandshake]

Agree. No point in beating Sunderland and then not winning until say the Wimbledon game in 4/5 games time. Draws aren't really much good either but obviously i'd take them over defeats.

[IDM]

Let’s just take one game at a time eh.?

[dickos1]

After 30 games last year, Burton were two points clear of the bottom 4 and Wigan were one point behind 5th bottom.

Those cases are not remotely comparable to our current position.

Burton won 6 on the bounce that’s why,
Look where they were after 25/26 games.

[normal rules]

What a time to go to Pompey. They are the worst performing side regarding last 6 played.averaging just 0.33 ppg.

[BigH]

After 30 games last year, Burton were two points clear of the bottom 4 and Wigan were one point behind 5th bottom.

Those cases are not remotely comparable to our current position.

BST isn't it around this time of the year that you start your prediction for the end of season points finish?

I reckon we'll end up on 38-40.

[Chris Black come back]

What a time to go to Pompey. They are the worst performing side regarding last 6 played.averaging just 0.33 ppg.

Another flat track bully. Last five home games beat Morecambe and Wimbledon, drew with Wednesday, lost to MK Dons and Charlton.

As previously posted, we have a superb record away at their place.

[ColinDouglasHandshake]

Their recent performance at home to Charlton was feeble and i think Sunderland was much the more difficult place to go and get a result so hoping for a positive result. A win tomorrow and a draw at Pompey would be amazing and set us up for the 2nd biggie of the season at home to the Wendies where we must be more competitive than we were against Rotherham and should have more confidence.

[BillyStubbsTears]

After 30 games last year, Burton were two points clear of the bottom 4 and Wigan were one point behind 5th bottom.

Those cases are not remotely comparable to our current position.

Burton won 6 on the bounce that’s why,
Look where they were after 25/26 games.

After 25 matches they were 5 points off safety.

What you're saying is that because they had a run of form that most sides only get once every few years, there's no reason why we couldn't.

I say that MIGHT happen but it's highly unlikely.

As far as I can see, the last time we won 6 league games on the bounce was Autumn 2003.

Which kind of shows why Burton's escape last year is not a good example.

1) They were never as far behind safety as we are.
2) They had more time left when they hit form.
3) The form they hit has only been matched by us once in 2 decades.

I'd love us to pull a miracle out of the bag, but it is very unlikely.

[Chris Black come back]

What a time to go to Pompey. They are the worst performing side regarding last 6 played.averaging just 0.33 ppg.

They are poor. Bottom of the League One form table. Interestingly Sunderland are below us, while MK Dons are level with Rotherham at the top.

[dickos1]

After 30 games last year, Burton were two points clear of the bottom 4 and Wigan were one point behind 5th bottom.

Those cases are not remotely comparable to our current position.

Burton won 6 on the bounce that’s why,
Look where they were after 25/26 games.

After 25 matches they were 5 points off safety.

What you're saying is that because they had a run of form that most sides only get once every few years, there's no reason why we couldn't.

I say that MIGHT happen but it's highly unlikely.

As far as I can see, the last time we won 6 league games on the bounce was Autumn 2003.

Which kind of shows why Burton's escape last year is not a good example.

1) They were never as far behind safety as we are.
2) They had more time left when they hit form.
3) The form they hit has only been matched by us once in 2 decades.

I'd love us to pull a miracle out of the bag, but it is very unlikely.

I think it’s irrelevent how many points they’re off teams. We could be two points off safety now or we could be 12, at the end of the day we need to get as close to 50 points as we can, regardless of any current points difference.

And we don’t need to have a run of 6 winning games, if we had a run of 2 on 3 or 4 occasions that would be giving us a great chance

[BillyStubbsTears]

After 30 games last year, Burton were two points clear of the bottom 4 and Wigan were one point behind 5th bottom.

Those cases are not remotely comparable to our current position.

BST isn't it around this time of the year that you start your prediction for the end of season points finish?

I reckon we'll end up on 38-40.

It is. And I've just done it. And the results have knocked me sideways.

If this is right (and it generally has been to within a couple or three points [1]) this is what the predicted final points values are for each position.



17th 55
18th 49
19th 45
20th 43
++++++++++++++++++++
21st 40
22nd 39
23rd 36
24th 30

So if that is right this season, a club could potentially stay up with 41-43 points.

That throws a very different light on our position.

I'd been looking at the average PPG of all the sides near the bottom and thinking something near to 50 points would be needed to stay up. I honestly don't think we can get close to that. But at the moment, there are several clubs who are in poor form, with 6 of the bottom ten averaging 1 PPG or less for the last ten games. which means that when you extrapolate RECENT form, rather than season-long form, a number of sides are forecast to finish on less than their current season average PPG.

The predictor is based on the idea that, in general. if 5-6 teams are having poor form now, 5-6 teams (not necessarily the same ones) will have poor form from now on. So yes, some teams might pick up. But that would be balanced by other tailing off. As I say, there's nothing definitive about it, but it does in general seem to work.

[1] Just checked the predictions for the TOP 10 of the division from about the same time last season - the average error was 1.74 points. The predictor came within 1 point of the actual final tally for 5 of the top 1 positions and the worst amount it was out was 4 points for one position in the top 10.

[belton rover]

I’ll tell you what throws exactly the same light on our situation: we need to finish 20th or better to stay up.

[drfchound]

I have been saying for a while now that people have been saying we would need fifty points to stay up and that it might not be the case.
If that prediction by bst is anywhere near accurate then we still have a very good chance of avoiding the drop.

[GazLaz]

I think the bottom of the table will look like this..

55pts Lincoln
54pts Cambridge
52pts Morecambe
52pts Fleetwood
——————————
48pts Wimbledon
38pts Doncaster
37pts Gills
36pts Crewe


I’m surprised how many points I have Morecambe finishing on as I’ve always been pretty certain they would get relegated.

[BigH]

I fear you might be right with that Gaz.

Wish it were otherwise like.

[dickos1]

I think the bottom of the table will look like this..

55pts Lincoln
54pts Cambridge
52pts Morecambe
52pts Fleetwood
——————————
48pts Wimbledon
38pts Doncaster
37pts Gills
36pts Crewe


I’m surprised how many points I have Morecambe finishing on as I’ve always been pretty certain they would get relegated.

I’d wager a lot of money we end up with more points than 38,
Since our recruitment became prevalent were averaging 1.5 points per game and that’s against the top sides in the division.
I think we will comfortably be closer to 48 points than 38

[Chris the Rover]

I agree with you Dickos. I’m still convinced we won’t be relegated and I’m the eternal pessimist when it comes to Rovers.

[les@donr]

If we are fifth from bottom at end of season, then it would have been a success given the season we've had to date, hoping the tide has turned.